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EDA Agenda - 01/24/2024AGENDA REGULAR MEETING - ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AUTHORITY (EDA) Wednesday, January 24, 2024 — 7:00 a.m. Academy Room, Monticello Community Center Commissioners: President Steve Johnson, Vice President Jon Morphew, Treasurer Hali Sittig, 011ie Koropchak-White, Rick Barger and Councilmembers Lloyd Hilgart and Tracy Hinz Staff: Executive Director Jim Thares, Rachel Leonard, Angela Schumann, Hayden Stensgard 1. General Business A. Call to Order B. Roll Call 7:00 a.m. C. Consideration of Additional Agenda Items 2. Consent Agenda 3. Public Hearing 4. Regular Agenda A. Consideration of Review and Discussion of Integrated Marketing and Communications Plan (IMCP) 5. Other Business A. Consideration of Economic Development Manager's Report 6. Adjournment EDA Agenda: 1/24/24 4A. Consideration of Review and Discussion and Preferred Implementation Steps related to the Integrated Marketing and Communications Plan (IMCP) Prepared by: Meeting Date: ❑x Regular Agenda Item Economic Development Manager 1/24/24 ❑ Consent Agenda Item Reviewed by: Approved by: Community Development Director Community Development Director ACTION REQUESTED Motion as determined by the EDA. PREVIOUS ACTION The EDA approved the IMCP in May 2022. :1 J 01:1 J ►14 *11► Ll:T_T41l C(�l 3.1110101 The EDA is asked to discuss the IMCP and provide direction to staff regarding marketing preferences in 2024 and possibly beyond the current calendar year. A bullet point listing of staff's view of the current IMCP status, resource constraints and potential actions -activities that may be considered by the EDA is provided below. • Move forward on top priorities identified in the AE2S Integrated Marketing and Communications plan, as well as Economic Development goals from the 2040 Plan. o IMCP included a significant level of research and engagement information which resulted in a strong outline of tactics and strategies. o Staff has employed a limited number of the tactics and look to dedicate more resources and attention to implementation in 2024-2025 o EDA has established a budget for marketing and a budget item for miscellaneous redevelopment activities, which can be used for marketing purposes specific to redevelopment and housing. • Plan outlines 5 areas of focus for marketing and communication. o Employee Recruitment & Retention o Executive Leadership Position Recruitment o Manufacturer Retention Recruitment & Attraction o Redevelopment & Revitalization o Relationship Building • Staff are asking the EDA to review and discuss staff's highlighted recommendations for execution from each of the 5 areas. o Selected areas that correspond to EDA priorities o Selected areas that set a foundation for additional efforts. EDA Agenda: 1/24/24 o Recognize staff time constraints. • In reviewing the priority strategies, the EDA may also want to update/complete a regional market analysis for purposes of economic development efforts to attract professional businesses and commercial enterprises. o The last retail market area trade analysis was completed in 2011 (see exhibit f) o Allow the City and EDA to highlight available land inventory for commercial/business. o With the investment in commercial land (Riverwood and Pointes), the study would be valuable in understanding market potential. o Information from the study can then be used in several of the strategies and tactics staff have prioritized from the IMCP. o Commercial growth does double duty in supporting quality of life for attracting manufacturers and will create employment opportunities with a focus on professional commercial uses as well as retail and hospitality. o Information is also tangentially helpful in recruiting residential in that existing commercial supports rooftops and vice versa. Budget Impact: The budget impact from the review and discussion of potential activities to implement the IMCP ranges from modest costs to a figure matching the 2024 budgeted marketing activities line item in the EDA General Fund budget, a sum of $45,000. II. Staff Workload Impact: The Community Development Director and Economic Development Manager have committed time to a review of the IMCP and leading a discussion of potential realistic IMCP actions -activities at the EDA meeting. III. Comprehensive Plan Impact: The Economic Development goals contemplate efforts to create a vibrant and healthy local economy. Completing various recommendations identified in the IMCP will contribute to that outcome. STAFF RECOMMENDATION Staff defer to the EDA in its preferences regarding implementation steps and potential marketing activities outlined in the IMCP. SUPPORTING DATA A. IMCP Executive Summary B. Pages from Chapter 9 - Monticello Comprehensive Plan + 2040 C. Pages from Chapter 5 - Monticello Comprehensive Plan + 2040 D. Available Commercial Properties Map - Draft E. Available Industrial Properties Map — Draft F. Excerpt - Embracing Downtown Monticello Retail Analysis Section G. EDA Staff Report — 05-11-22 EDA Mtg Economic Development (il% Integrated Marketing and Communications Plan • ADS • COMMUNICATIONS 1o1 Execut'i've Summary. The Integrated Marketing and Communications Plan (IMCP) and 1 Manufacturer Retention, templates have been developed to provide an opportunity to reach Recruitment and Attraction and amplify the EDA's goals locally, regionally, and beyond. Each tactic, template, and message is all based on what is authentic to Monticello and why it's a great place to live and do business.1 Redevelopment & Revitalization • e • 1 Relationship Building Section 1 1 2 ,..0 0 X ..... Nature Family- Hometown Expanding Great & Views Friendly Feel Business Location Key Messages/Themes Connection between Nature and Business Monticello is located directly in- between two major metro areas (business), and near northern cabin communities (nature). Locally it's business opportunities with nature views right in your backyard. Trails, parks, and views are a major strength of the community. Section 1 Relationships that Feel like Home Local relationships are the strength of the community. Relationships at all levels will feed workforce development challenges. From creating relationships between high school and post -secondary schools and businesses, to developing relationships and synergies between businesses and manufacturing industries. Life is Good. Business is Great. "Life is good" speaks to the great family and home atmosphere, along with the variety of amenities in the city that provide a good life for families and children. "Business is great" refers to the authentic community character, low taxes, business -friendly climate, and opportunities for expansion. Digital Advertising & Social Media Digital advertising can reach targeted audiences on a consistent basis. Digital ads will be used to reach both people and businesses and communicate the benefits of doing business and living in Monticello as well as directly market opportunities. Digital advertising also allow us to use analytics to track the results and pivot as needed. Earned Media -'IF Earned media, such as articles are cost effective and can be reprinted and reposted for maximum reach. There is also opportunity to leverage earned media with Partners in order to bolster key messaging. Unique Marketing Unique advertising and packets will be developed to assist local businesses and accomplish the goals. Items such as executive packets, incentives packaging, and handouts and flyers that communicate benefits will help support each economic goal. Partnerships will be key to the success of these materials. Goals and Objectives. 60 Economic Development Goals. • All strategy and tactics contained in this IMCP will be based on the following five goals as directed by the EDA. Employee Recruitment and Retention lJ Executive Leadership Positions Recruitment Redevelopment & Revitalization Section 3 1 2 Manufacturer Retention, Recruitment and Attraction Relationship Building GOAL 1 Employee Recruitment and Retention Understand the needs and support local businesses' ability to recruit new workforce candidates as well as promote quality of life benefits and other local opportunities to retain current workforce. 5 PERFORMANCE METRICS • Increase in candidate applications (more people in the funnel) in key businesses. • Decrease in open executive positions due to hires. • Increased home builds to suit executive leadership. • Quality of life and workforce development materials usage maximized. Section 3 1 4 SAL 1 Positions F a PERFORMANCE METRICS • Reduced business and industrial park vacancy. • Increased site and building absorption. • Attraction of value added/complementary businesses to current businesses. • Increased participation and relationship building in the IEDC, Chamber, and EDA. Section 3 1 5 DAL 3 firer Re t and ,4 ... 0 [1 ;Ii •i• PERFORMANCE METRICS • Increased interest from Developers, Businesses, and Home Builders. • Increased permitting for redevelopment areas. • Increased property values. • Increased reuse and reinvestment in existing properties. • Economic multipler. • Authentic community. Section 3 1 6 • 11\ ErAl • • :7.-i?,'- '��:.. .,Y!.' •.�•.r _ tea: _ .,.r.- �.:z:: :;3`^.$-'�::i3'.^".`: - - — •�. 'qs ZT•� `sem. �:w' ;-.•...r �.�m.�Yia:�.°r.�y.v _ti :.?��`:�T�4.•�:.a n� ...ddr.• �� _ ,'.w.. .. .. .. .. .._a. •- - „:.:s5.�..,..':kKz^r.:��•.��.t:.: is ,'�,.,� .;.z3�, .• .'; .A.' n�� ... - . ... {T' T•� ��"_3� ,.'�.'.iAE • PERFORMANCE METRICS • Higher engagement and ratings in future business and/or community surveys. • Increased usage of City and County programs associated with workforce, business funding/financing, etc. • Increased communication with resource partners (banks realtors, etc.) on programs & funding opportunities Section 3 1 7 671 7: ■■rrr�rri� �� rrriii■■■� �l�iY�YilYt y } "elrhow, !'m @7 iii i■■■a 00 Common Themes. #1 Connection between Nature and Business From a location standpoint it's right between two major metro areas (business) and northern cabin communities (nature). Locally it's business opportunities with nature views right in your backyard. Trails, parks, and views are a major strength of the community. +#2 Relationships that Feel like Home Local relationships are the strength of the community. Relationships at all levels will feed workforce development challenges. From creating relationships between high school and post- secondary schools and businesses to developing relationships and synergies between businesses and manufacturing industries. #3 Life is Good. Business is Great. Speaks to great family and home atmosphere along with the variety of amenities in the city that provide a good life for families and children. Business is great refers to the authentic community character, business -friendly climate, and opportunities for expansion. • 00 Strategies & Tactics • Introduction Strong marketing and communication starts with an extensive understanding of the stakeholders and the target market. A unique and creative campaign will not be successful if there is not buy -in from stakeholders and/or it doesn't resonate with target audiences. So, before developing strategic messaging and creative communication tactics, AE2S Communications focused on who the stakeholders are, and potential target markets for each goal. Based on input in the discovery period, stakeholder groups, target audiences, and outside research, the marketing and communications strategies were developed. Each tactic is focused on a specific target audience and has associated action item(s). Some action items have companion templates and are noted by *bold italicized font. ....................................................................................... % Signifies top priority tactic Underway by City's Communications Department •....................................................................................... Section 5 1 2 roe Employee Recruitment & Retention Section 5 1 3 Monticello is a regional hub for manufacturing and commercial endeavors. The business - friendly environment allows companies to innovate and expand. With this growth comes the need for employers to fill a growing number of positions to support their businesses. Research has identified a significant need for workforce in all areas of business, and especially in the manufacturing and healthcare industries. The key goal is to identify and target potential workforce members that would appreciate the benefits of living and working in Monticello. DEmployee Recruitment & Retention Introduce and increase New Americans employment opportunities for Veterans diverse workforce members. Disabled Local businesses Build upon Monticello/ISD High school students 882 pathways program to College students connect students/graduates with Parents available positions. Capturing attention of students at College students Recent college graduates nearby colleges (St. Cloud Boomerangs (Monticello Tech, Anoka Tech, Hennepin students) Tech, Alexandria Tech, Minnesota Veterans (reserves/national State Community & Tech) guard) Section 5 1 4 • Sharing Minnesota DEED programs with local businesses through owned media and at events. Available for veterans, disabled, and New American workers. • Sponsor a round table event with CareerForce Monticello to inform businesses of strategies for hiring disabled workers and military veterans. • Develop relationships with MN Military installations to recruit veterans (Ft. Snelling, Camp Ripley). Promotions such as onsite print ads aimed to recruit veterans to manufacturing careers. • Partner with Chamber for a series of "did you know?" social media posts or addition to newsletter that presents avenues to hire diverse workforce. • Create a fund for local businesses to support internships. Such as InternMonti whereas businesses would receive $1,000 towards hiring and training interns. • Partner with Chamber, Wright County, and businesses to host a career fair in the spring with the intent of filling summer internships. Highlight businesses that have training programs such as UMC (6 -week youth skills training apprenticeship) • Encourage high school to create a Pathways web page so that EDA and Chamber can promote through their owned media. Promote web page to reach parents, students, and businesses. • Highlight key internships that provide career path development in blogs, newsletter, and social media. • Depending on funding, promote MN Tech Internship programs (SciTechMN.org) to businesses, parents, and students. • Develop showcase of Monticello alumni success in high school and promote stories. • Invite students to EDA meetings to foster understanding and open opportunities. • Print or digital display ads at local technical colleges promoting quality of life, employers, and available positions in Monticello. *Example ad template recommended. • Host/attend semesterly career fairs. • Partner with relevant programs at local technical colleges to promote opportunities in Monticello. Employee Recruitment & Retention Promote quality of life Young professionals (Location, schools, outdoors, Boomerangs opportunity) based on Tapestry Families personas. Provide workforce/quality of life Chamber toolbox to businesses. Businesses Section 5 1 5 • Continue a consistent message/design style to build a strong social media presence (showcase events, outdoors, new developments). Boosting posts to reach more people outside of the area as well as consideration for advertising on platforms such as Spotify and SnapChat. *Example ad template recommended. • Once the City's Instagram account has launched created content that is • purely quality of life focused. • Targeted ads like geofencing the Monticello area during holidays to target boomerangs. *Example ad template recommended. • Targeted articles in key media outlets and platforms that focus on ranking and ratings of quality -of -life features. (top test scores, student teacher ratio, top graduation rate, parks/recreation, etc.) • Promote quality of life content on reformatted Parks, Arts, and Recreation • website page. • Create one page quality of life recruitment flyer that can be shared digitally or printed. *Example handout template recommended. • Provide glossary of resources and links to businesses for them to use in their materials. *Glossary of resource template recommended. • Add "New Residents" page to website and share with employers to refer recruits. • Utilizing any content developed by the Write County Cable Commission, create series of short videos showcasing Monticello that can be added to • website, social media, or other digital promotions. Shorts can include subject matter of quality of life, moving here, starting a business here. e Executive leadership Position Recruitment Section 5 1 6 Business growth as well as succession planning requires next generation leaders. Through natural business progression and cycles comes bigger career opportunities and leadership roles. After discussions with business owners, one of the workforce demographics that has seen challenges in recruitment is at the executive level. Goal 2 focuses on reaching this demographic of the workforce, by communicating the benefits of living and working in Monticello, and providing businesses with the right tools to attract and convert leads. 02] Executive Leadership Position Recruitment Create specialized executive level recruitment toolkit and experience. Local Human Resources Local Upper Management Executive Level Personas Partner with local/regional CentraCare — Monticello Healthcare Facility to offer Boomerangs comparable or unique advantages. Executive Level Personas Develop targeted digital Boomerangs advertising. Executive Level Personas Continue to focus on quality -of -life marketing specifically related to Boomerangs Executive Level Personas executive personas. Section 5 1 7 • Develop recruitment package of perks and opportunities. *Packet template recommended. Partner with Monticello Golf Course and Country Club, Bertram Regional Park, as well as other local amenities to provide special offerings to be included in recruitment package. Collect key metrics about quality -of -life and resources for executive personas. Work with Chamber and IEDC to develop an executive tour group when bringing top executives to the City. Executive tour group may include Mayor, Superintendent, and other leadership to have lunch with recruit. • Provide a concierge service for tour around Monticello and highlight quality -of -life experiences. Make key connections with hotel, restaurant, and other places to ensure excellent service for top executives. • Work with Chamber and IEDC to meet with CentraCare team to discuss opportunity for Executive Health Level Screenings (all-inclusive package) to be provided to top executives in key business areas. Caveat: businesses must be supportive of providing all-inclusive package. Assist with marketing that communicates the benefits of having specialized services that meet unique executive schedules. • Create Linkedln posts from blogs and articles and promote to target audiences based on article topic. *Example Linkedln article recommended. • Share process with interested businesses to aid in their recruiting efforts. • Utilize digital targeted and retarget advertising that focuses on life is good, business is great. *Example ad template recommended. • Interview/video current executives about why they find Monticello appealing and special. Clips can be used in recruitment packages, social media, and digital advertising. Manufacturer Retention Recruitment & Attraction Section 5 1 8 Monticello has created a flourishing hub for manufacturers, specifically precision manufacturers. Further, the City has done an excellent job at creating a business environment and incentives that help these manufacturing companies thrive. This goal focuses on further providing the right resources to local businesses and attracting complementary manufacturing and commercial businesses that will benefit both the City and the current businesses. Manufacturer Retention, Recruitment and Attraction Identify cluster manufacturers and vendors that support current and proposed local manufacturing companies (pre- and post- production). • Connect with local manufactures to develop a list of in-house services and outside support services used. Complementary Manufacturers and • Create materials that promote local needs and facts. Vendors (i.e. heat treated, precision, etc.) • Develop a specific Constant Contact and priority mailing list of complementary manufacturers and send campaign of materials. • Target complementary manufacturers through digital ads. • Gather and develop packet of materials for noting each incentive offered by the City, County, and State agencies. *Packet template recommended. • Create website page specific to incentive programs and feature success stories. Launch website resources page on owned media, partner/shared media, and earned media. *Website layout template recommended. Section 5 1 9 • Work with the Monticello Chamber and IEDC to distribute materials and conduct follow-up visits with local manufacturers. Local Manufacturers Develop incentives package that is Prospective Manufacturers Entrepreneurs . Promote incentives package on local and national manufacturing specific to precision Colleges that Offer organization websites including MPMA, Enterprise Minnesota, Central manufacturing with a Entrepreneurship Certificates Minnesota Manufacturers Association, Midwest Manufacturers comprehensive list of benefits. Colleges that have Incubators or Association, and Dream It. Do it. Promote during Manufacturing Month. Similar Facilities • Targeted ads in key media sources. *Example ad template recommended. • Gather testimonials from manufacturers who have recently seen success in an expansion. Promote in targeted ads. • Provide packet of materials to local entrepreneurship programs, start-up, and business colleges. *Packet template recommended. shboL. • Solicit award-winning up-and-coming technology or other startups identified in Minnesota. Create congrats package and include incentives to build/expand their business in Monticello. Section 5 1 9 Manufacturer Retention, Recruitment and Attraction Celebrate successes of current Manufacturers manufacturing businesses. Connect with investors and financing institutions and agencies. Develop relationships with local and national manufacturing organizations. Section 5 1 10 Investors Financiers Manufacturers Organizations Executives • Create video testimonials to share with potential businesses (can be combined with previous action items). Share these videos on social media, website, and targeted ads. • Work towards shared media with local manufacturers to share information about successes, events, and opportunities within framework of EDA topical items in City newsletter. Work towards earned media opportunities that showcase local success, specifically highlighting benefits Monticello played in the success. Consider editorial calendar meetings to ascertain topics and preferences Develop a forum in association with the Manufacturing Month Breakfast Event to capture potential opportunities for further success and bring 40 local resources together. • Work with Chamber and IEDC to host events that bring investors and entrepreneurs together. This could include sporting events, panels, golf outing, etc. • Create editorial articles for Precision Manufacturing Journal and similar publications. • Sponsor a hole at MPMA golf tournament. Develop materials that spotlight the benefits of doing business in Monticello. Consider partnering with a local business to be a live testimonial. • Host an MPMA Toolbox Talk. MMA PODCAST COMPLETE • Host CEO roundtable with group of CEOs quarterly or in association with Chamber event or EDC meetings. • ID Redevelopment & Revitalization Section 5 1 11 Redevelopment and' revitialization is critical to communities as it reimagines areas of the city that may be old, dilapidated, or otherwise unused which in turn creates a better quality of life, increased property value, and vibrancy. The City of Monticello has invested in redevelopment study efforts and is focused on major redevelopments both in the downtown area (such as Cedar Street District and Block 52) and near 194 (such as Pointes on Cedar). Current promotional efforts are focused on owned media (website, blog, social, onsite signage, and collateral). In addition, the City supports revitalization efforts, land assembly assistance, facade grants, and public investment in placemaking and amenities. Redevelopment & Revitalization "buzz" Developers Create consistent about Investors Investors activity and opportunity in Realtors Monticello. Efforts can be Management Companies posted/reposted, improve SEO, Owners and Renters Potential Retail and Commercial use as packet supplements. Renters Developers Investors Develop event -based connections Realtors and relationship building with key Potential Retail and Commercial stakeholders. Renters Current Downtown Building Owners and Renters Section 5 1 12 • Regular press release (growth stats, construction starts, major milestones, housing offering, etc.). Sent through AP portal for wider coverage. *Press release template recommended. Targeted articles in key journals and media outlets (Twin Cities Business and others) that tie in topical/current issues. Editorials or Letter to Editor (thank you for grants, local business climate, etc.) from city leaders to representatives, friendly business owners, and others that have had positive experiences. Updates in Chamber and other organization newsletters on rotating basis. Repurpose blog posts into video updates. • Personal visits with developers and investors with targeted packet. Include ESRI Business Analysis and Tapestry data for retail and commercial investors. *Packet template recommended. • Small group updates/educational opportunities for realtors (earn credits), for businesses to better understand incentives, etc. May partner with existing events such as Good Morning Monticello and Business After Hours. • Site visits/tours at Pointes at Cedar after milestone construction events to interested developers, investors, and realtors. • Create website page specific to incentive programs and feature success stories. Launch website resources page on owned media, partner/shared media, and earned media. *Website layout template recommended. • Direct emailing to Chamber and EDA/IEDC members to promote incentive programming. • Gather quotes from developers/businesses "City was helpful...." and utilize throughout marketing collateral. Developers Elevate resources and references Investors Potential Retail and to show business -friendly nature Commercial Renters and redevelopment readiness. Current Downtown Building Owners and Renters Section 5 1 12 • Regular press release (growth stats, construction starts, major milestones, housing offering, etc.). Sent through AP portal for wider coverage. *Press release template recommended. Targeted articles in key journals and media outlets (Twin Cities Business and others) that tie in topical/current issues. Editorials or Letter to Editor (thank you for grants, local business climate, etc.) from city leaders to representatives, friendly business owners, and others that have had positive experiences. Updates in Chamber and other organization newsletters on rotating basis. Repurpose blog posts into video updates. • Personal visits with developers and investors with targeted packet. Include ESRI Business Analysis and Tapestry data for retail and commercial investors. *Packet template recommended. • Small group updates/educational opportunities for realtors (earn credits), for businesses to better understand incentives, etc. May partner with existing events such as Good Morning Monticello and Business After Hours. • Site visits/tours at Pointes at Cedar after milestone construction events to interested developers, investors, and realtors. • Create website page specific to incentive programs and feature success stories. Launch website resources page on owned media, partner/shared media, and earned media. *Website layout template recommended. • Direct emailing to Chamber and EDA/IEDC members to promote incentive programming. • Gather quotes from developers/businesses "City was helpful...." and utilize throughout marketing collateral. Redevelopment & Revitalization Share redevelopment/revitalization vision. Elevate placemaking and public investment in amenities. Increase awareness and pride in downtown spaces and brand. Boost targeted content to your key audiences. Section 5 1 13 • VR/virtual tours of redevelopment areas and spaces of "what could be" from a blank slate at special events. Special events could be a pop-up Developers cafe or brewery in an empty space to attract key stakeholders. Partnering Investors Realtors with Chamber and select businesses. Potential Retail and • Wrap outside of building or window wraps of vision for space for potential Commercial Renters retailers or commercial investors. Current Downtown Building Owners and Renters • "Imagine your business here" direct mail piece to small, targeted businesses, entrepreneurs, and makers. Include potential incentives and support services. *Example direct mail piece template recommended. Realtors Potential Retail and Commercial Renters Current Downtown Building Owners and Renters Realtors Potential Retail and Commercial Renters Current Downtown Building Owners and Renters Developers Investors Realtors Potential Retail and Commercial Renters Current Downtown Building Owners and Renters • Partner with Chamber, school, and businesses for demonstration projects. Potential funding available. • Compass Committee group pop -ups at community events such as art in the park, Riverfest, and farmer's market that showcase Pointes at Cedar • redevelopment area. Other pop -ups by MontiArts and City to showcase placemaking opportunities. • Partner with Chamber and the City's Communications Department for • downtown awards, walk and talks, and history lessons. • Partner with Chamber to create campaign and usage around downtown logo including window clings, tags, stickers, chalk art, small wraps, posters, and other low-cost items. *Example template clings, tags, and • stickers included. • Create Linkedln posts from blogs and articles and promote to target audiences based on article topic. *Example Linkedln article recommended. • Utilize digital targeted and retarget advertising that combines quality of life with downtown vitality. *Example ad template recommended. • Create billboards on major highways/street. Paid or utilizing City -owned land. *Billboard ad template recommended. LJ Relationship Building Section 5 1 14 Building relationships is a vital piece of creating a healthy community. These relationships can include businesses, associations, the city, schools, and more. Successful relationships can help solve complex challenges like workforce recruitment, improve business inefficiencies, and increase quality of life. This goal is to identify potential relationships and make connections that benefit residents, businesses, and the city of Monticello as a whole. TI Relationship Building Support relationship building High School for Monticello/ISD 882 Chamber of Commerce pathways program with School Local businesses and local businesses. Manufacturers Develop relationships between area colleges and local businesses to create school - to -workforce pipeline. Connect local businesses & entrepreneurs with programs and funding opportunities. Support B2B relationships in Monticello. Section 5 1 15 Local businesses Manufacturers City of Monticello St. Cloud Tech Anoka Tech Hennepin Tech Alexandria Tech Minnesota State Community & Tech Businesses Manufacturers DEED Launch MN Dream It Do It MN Minnesota State Advanced Manufacturing Center of Excellence Cluster manufacturing and vendors Businesses in surrounding communities Growing businesses in relevant industries Create a pathways partners quarterly meeting. With the purpose of connecting EDA, School, IEDC, Chamber, and possibly Wright County. Support pathways program based on discussions. Work with businesses to analyze the changing workforce landscape and identify potential or augmented career paths to include in education on an annual or biannual basis. Technology, types of engineering, manufacturing, etc. Support in-person career education like field trips, job shadowing, and guest speakers at the City (public service focused careers). Schedule introductory meetings with colleges to discuss partnership opportunities and learn about programs that may be useful to Monticello businesses. • Identify and develop relationships with key professors that will be able to support pipeline efforts/advocates for Monticello businesses. • Gather testimonials from Monticello workforce members who attended local colleges. Promote in targeted ads to students at tech schools. Replicate for boomerangs. *Example ad template recommended. • Develop comprehensive list to educate local businesses on beneficial state programs like DEED and funding opportunities. • Create webpage with guide to all available opportunities for employers and workforce. • Connect manufacturers, entrepreneurs, and workforce with beneficial local/state programs through small group meetings/video chats. • Meetings with businesses to identifying needs and opportunities for partnerships to understand and develop cluster and vendor targets. • Newsletter articles featuring industries or clusters that benefit Monticello. • Work with and support Chamber as they host networking events for business executives in and around Monticello. Feature topics that would draw from other areas. • Work with key manufacturers to provide tours or video tours to highlight facilities during Manufacturing Month. x Marketing Templates Summary m Templates. High Priority Templates 1 1 Quality of life one pager 2 , Targeted media ads Incentives packet Goal 1/Workforce and quality of life toolbox Goal 3/Incentive package to precision manufacturing Goal 3/Incentive package to precision manufacturing Website page layout for Goal 3/Incentive package to incentives precision manufacturing Goal 4/Elevate redevelopment readiness 5 Startup packet Goal 3/Incentive package to precision manufacturing Can be shared digitally or printed. Placed in media associated with precision manufacturing. Gathered info from City, County, and State. Additional website page under Community & Economic Development. Emerging business content. 6 Website page layout for Goal 4/Elevate resources and Additional website page under redevelopment references to show business- Community & Economic Development. friendly nature and redevelopment readiness 7 Linkedln article Goal 2/Targeted digital Topical articles that can be promoted. advertising Goal 4/13oost targeted content 8 Press release Goal 4/Create PR buzz about Include growth stats, construction, redevelopment activity etc. 9 Billboard Goal 4/13oost targeted content to Place on major streets/highways. your key audiences Opportunity to use City -owned property. Section 6 1 2 Employee Recruitment and Retention Executive Leadership Positions Recruitment Manufacturer Retention, Recruitment and Attraction Redevelopment & Revitalization •_ Relationship Building Summary m Templates. Secondary Templates 10 1 Recruitment package 11 Print and digital display ads 12 Social media posts and Spotify transcript - 13 Geofencing targeted ad 14 Glossary of resources 15 Testimonials and ads LI 16 ESRI Business Analyst packet 17 Direct mail piece L Section 6 1 3 Goal 2/Executive level recruitment Comprehensive package and perks. toolkit Goal 1/Capture attention of nearby Posted on campus college students Goal 1/Promote quality of life Consistent message/design style Goal 1/Promote quality of life Goal 2/Quality of life executive targeting Goal 4/Boost targeted content across platforms. Used during holidays and events where boomerangs attend. Goal 1[Workforce and quality of List of resources and links for life toolbox businesses. Goal 1/Capture attention of nearby Promote in local colleges and tech college students schools. Goal 5/Relationships to promote school -to -workforce pipeline Goal 4/Event based connections Monticello specific ESRI data. Goal 4/Vision that is sharable "Imagine your business here" focus Employee Recruitment and Retention &a Executive Leadership Positions Recruitment dr*T*T-,% Manufacturer Retention, Recruitment and Attraction Redevelopment & Revitalization Relationship Building Measuring Success. Measurement Goals SMART goals are specific, measurable, achievable, realistic, and time bound. These SMART Marketing Goals are developed to measure tactics that support the overall EDA goals described in Section 3. Increase in candidate applications by 10% in key businesses over the next two years. Measurement may be acquired through an informal survey through IEDC on an annual or semi-annual basis. Increased internship and job shadow opportunities for an additional 15 students by 2024. Measurement may be acquired by creating a baseline measurement in conjunction with the High School. Key executive positions filled and retained due to factors related to quality of life. Measurement may be acquired through an informal survey through IEDC on an annual or semi-annual basis. Reduced business and industrial park vacancy by 15% year over year. Measurement based on current vacancy as a baseline. Attract at least one complementary manufacturing and at least one support vendor business by 2025. Measurement based on current manufacturers. Increased inquires by developers, businesses, and home builders by 10% within the first year. Increased usage of City and County programs associated with workforce and financing by at least 10%. Increased website traffic in Economic Development pages by 20% in first year. Identifiable peaks in usage associated with earned and paid media deployment. Measurement based on website usage in first quarter of 2022. Section 7 1 2 IMPLEMENTATION CHART: ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT SHORT- I LONG- ONGOING THEME TERM TERM Policy 1.1: Business and Strategy 1.1.1- Maintain a strong Business I Employment Retention Retention and Expansion (BR&E) program to monitor opportunities for continued growth ' • - Retain existingbusinesses and and expansion of businesses as well as the O • • • • • • employers to ensure existing continued relationship development between " • • and future residents have access to the City and existing businesses. • • livable wage jobs in a diverse range Strategy 1.1.2 - Identify and support companies O Of economic sectors. that are expanding and adding employees. Strategy 1.1.3 - Identify and promote programs that assist existing companies in expansion and 0 La creation of new positions. Strategy 1.1.4 -Assist and support companies O in accessing business assistance programs including financial and educational programs. Bring Businesses and EducatStrateional Educational Organizations together to Organizations O create training programs to foster new living wage opportunities. Policy 1.2: Local Business Support Support existing businesses in their Strategy 1.2.1— Facilitate relationships with existing businesses on the expansion, redevelopment and improvement of their 43 efforts to expand and do business buildings and facilities. in the community. Strategy 1.2.2 - Consider facade rehabilitation programs, small business loans, grants and other tools to encourage property reinvestment O and support local businesses. Strategy 1.2.3- Foster partnerships and maintain networking relationships with the goal of maintaining communication in support of O existing businesses. MONTICELLO 2040 VISION + PLAN IMPLEMENTATION CHART: ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT SHORT- I LONG- ONGOING THEME TERM TERM 224 -!� IMPLEMENTATION Policy 2.1. Diverse • Economic Sectors Strategy2.1.1- Capitalize on the proximity to 1-94 regional transportation facilities, available O ' • • " • • • • • • land and educated and skilled workforce to �a • . - • - Diversify economic sectors to create opportunities for job growth. - • • • - broaden the base of available . • - • • - • living wage employment in Strategy2.1.2- Inventory existing industry • - • • the Community. clusters and strengthen those clusters by attracting similar and complementary businesses. O Strategy2.1.3- Work with existing business clusters to expand the attraction of supply O chain companies. Strategy2.1.4- Recognize changing land use patterns for industrial parks, and other or O alternative uses such as co -working spaces. Policy2.2. Business Toolbox Strategy2.2.1- Promote economic development tools to the business community. O Maintain a business development and job creation toolbox to assist Strategy2.2.2- Develop criteria for a City tax O existing and future businesses. reimbursement and abatement program. Strategy2.2.3 - Identify and promote new and existing state and federal programs to support O business development and attraction. Strategy 2.2.4- Prepare a complete development site package for high-priority areas O including a map of available parcels. Strategy2.2.S- Certify available industrial sites as "shovel ready" to allow for faster turnaround O of development projects. Strategy2.2.6- Maintain and update annually property availability maps for commercial and O industrial parcels. 224 -!� IMPLEMENTATION IMPLEMENTATION CHART: ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT SHORT- I LONG- ONGOING THEME TERM TERM • • = • • • Policy 2.3: Local Strategy2.3.1- Proactively support small Partner Collaboration business start-up efforts through funding Work collaboratively with partners and programs made available by the State of Minnesota's Department of Employment, to foster the attraction of Initiative Foundation and Economic new businesses. Development (DEED) and Wright County Economic Development Partnership. POlicy2.4. Industrial and Business Strategy2.4.1- Identify funding sources for infrastructure and proactively engage O Site Analysis and Availability a variety of partners to help complete the �i development of a new business park. Identify, plan, and develop new Strategy2.4.2- Develop partnerships to assist industrial/business park areas to ensure site availability for with marketing and promotion of industrial/ O industrial projects as existing business park areas. areas fully develop. Strategy2.4.3- Monitor industrial land absorption to help prioritize future site O development and readiness. Strategy2.4.4- Investigate opportunities for grants, legislation, transition aid, or bonding funds to support industrial land O �a O area development. • Policy3.1. Downtown Small Area Plan Strategy3.1.1- Develop and support the appropriate policies, programs, and incentives O that enable the type of development described Use and implement the Downtown in the Downtown Small Area Plan. Small Area Plan as the guiding - - - - _ document to improve, develop and redevelop Downtown. Strategy3.1.2- Install improvements to the downtown as envisioned in the Walnut Street O c(c Corridor Plan. 1J1 Strategy3.1.3- Continue to build a funding base for use in property acquisition and O redevelopment efforts in targeted areas. Strategy3.1.4- Continue to support the fa4ade improvement program and promote to O downtown business and property owners. MONTICELLO 2040 VISION + PLAN IMPLEMENTATION CHART: ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT SHORT- I LONG- ONGOING THEME TERM TERM • Policy 3.1: Downtown Small Area Plan Strategy3.1.5 - Continue to meet with downtown property owners either in an informal group setting or individually to understand Continue to follow and implement their concerns with traffic, parking, land use, building improvements and reinvestment in their O (3) the Downtown Small Area Plan. property as well as willingness to sell, partner, price, etc. Strategy3.1.6- Encourage continued incorporation of arts as an economic O ccc development tool for Downtown Monticello 1JJ and the community at -large. Strategy3.1.7- Ensure trail and pedestrian/ cycle connections are considered within the downtown and from the downtown to other O ((( 1J1 areas within the community. Strategy3.1.8- Maintain and update annually property availability maps for downtown O property or property investment parcels. • Policy 4.1: Redevelopment Strategy4.1.1- Continue to focus on site control for a potential future targeted redevelopment in O r\r\r\ . _ • . _ • • • Continue to support redevelopment • • • . . • • • efforts as identified in the • _ _ • Downtown Small Area Plan and ' • • • ' • • • in strategic opportunity areas • • • • _ • • • . throughout the community. Block 52 as envisioned in the Downtown Small Area Study Plan. 1JJ Strategy4.1.2-Develop and implement marketing of city -owned properties identified for redevelopment, including Block 52, 34 and Cedar Street/Broadway site. 0 41 Strategy4.1.3- Reconnect Walnut Street to O River Street in support of redevelopment. Strategy 4.1.4- Use the Block 52 redevelopment project as a catalyst and c(( template for future redevelopment projects in O 1J1 the downtown area. Strategy4.1.5- Remain open to strategic opportunities for redevelopment throughout +La the community in all land use categories . 226 IMPLEMENTATION IMPLEMENTATION CHART: ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT SHORT- I LONG- ONGOING THEME TERM TERM • • • • Policy 4.2. Revitalization Strategy 4.2.1 -Evaluate any development related processes or fees which could be r\r\r\ modified to support or encourage reinvestment O JJl Support revitalization efforts for in targeted areas. publicly owned properties and other opportunity sites Strategy 4.2.2 -Research and develop reinvestment programs for targeted housing throughout the community. areas and other sites throughout the community O for long-term investment. Strategy4.2.3- Use strategies identified in the Community Character, Design and the Arts O ((( Chapter in revitalization projects. 1Il • Policy 5.1. Strategy 5.1.1- Continue to market workforce Housing to Support Employment housing development on EDA -owned land along East 4th Street and Outlot A of Country O Actively promote and seek Club Manor, or at other suitable sites in the City, ' opportunities for the development including the Downtown. - of a wide variety of housing types, styles and price points as Strategy5.1.2-Maintain and update annually a mechanism to support and property availability maps for residential O housing sites as identified in the attract employment. 2020 Housing Report. Strategy5.t3- Support efforts by private and non-profit entities to develop affordable housing O projects utilizing state and federal programs based on housing supply and demand data. Strategy5.1.4- Examine use and application of available housing TIF dollars per the 2016 O TIF Management Plan and the adopted Policy Statements for Available TIF Funds. Strategy5.1.5- Complete updates to the 2020 Housing Study and regular and O appropriate intervals. Strategy5.t6- Continue to periodically examine housing stock for aging or blighted properties and research development O of programs for redevelopment and/or revitalization of existing housing. MONTICELLO 2040 VISION + PLAN IMPLEMENTATION CHART: ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT SHORT- I LONG- ONGOING THEME TERM TERM Policy 6.1: Diversified Strategy 6.1.1- Continue to support and Skilled Workforce interactions with local organizations to address O workforce needs and training. . _ _ The City will collaborate with the Strategy6.1.2- Partner with Wright County • • • • • • • • • • • • • • _ School District, Wright County _ _ _ .. . Economic Development Partnership Workforce Pathways (WCWFP) on solutions for O • • • • • • and other local entities involved training and education programs. • • . • . • • • • in monitoring and developing • • • • workforce training awareness Strategy6.1.3-Promote Central Minnesota efforts to address workforce needs. .lobs & Training Services as an option to community college or university for students seeking alternative careers in the trades O manufacturing, and similar sectors and create a plan to market financial tools which support living wage employment as a primary focus. Policy 71: Strategy 7.1.1- Identify community partners Public Relation Strategy that can be regularly engaged and advised on O economic development activities and events. • • • • • Create and maintain a Strategy 7.1.2 -Support the developmentofan • • ' ' • • • • • • comprehensive Marketing • • �' " • • • ' and Communication Strategy for economic development brand and utilize it in all O ' • • • ' priority sectors, available sites economic development activities. and opportunities. Strategy 7.1.3 -Enhance the brand and tell O (S) the story of Downtown Monticello. Strategy7.1.4 - Regularly update information O about available development sites. Strategy 7.1.5- Marketing EDA incentive programs in a more proactive manner, both within the community and beyond. • Present existing and new incentive programs to smaller community groups, local banks, realtors, and local businesses O either in an informal group session or a formal round table format. • Develop and communicate a "complete" development package program which provides support and assistance to prospects and developers from inquiry to construction. 228 IMPLEMENTATION IMPLEMENTATION CHART: ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT SHORT- I LONG- ONGOING THEME TERM TERM MONTICELLO 2040 VISION + PLAN Policy 7.1. Strategy 7.1.6 - Market industrial development Public Relation Strategy of the business/industrial areas to a broad variety of prospects as guided by the current and future Comprehensive Plan. O �� • Focus on prospects which serve or rely on the St. Cloud and Twin Cities markets. • Focus on supply chain prospects. Policy7.1: Partnerships Strategy7.2.1- Engage in the regional planning efforts of the Central Mississippi River Regional Engage as a partner in local and regional planning and Planning Partnership (CMRRPP) to allow for the continued development of the community. O development opportunities. Strategy7.2.2- Consider funding and/or completing studies that provide policy and strategy framework for desired land uses/ O or projects in the downtown and for other development opportunities and programs. Strategy7.2.3- Monitor commuter rail development in and around the Twin Cities metro region for potential benefits and O opportunities to serve Monticello. Policy 8.1. Opportunity Focus Areas Strategy8.1.1- Maintain open lines of communication with property and business owners to understand their long term O ., Recognize the opportunity development objectives. . see focus areas of the city as the locations with optimal conditions for attracting reinvestment and the overall improvement of the Strategy8.1.2- Consider tax strategies, loans, grants, and other financing mechanisms to boost reinvestment and improvements. O appearance and character of these areas. Strategy8.1.3- Encourage public infrastructure investment in these areas to encourage 0 SIJ private investment. MONTICELLO 2040 VISION + PLAN i I CHAPTER 5: IC DEVELOPMENT 775 The flow of employees to jobs outside of the City, or into the City while living in a different area occurs for several reasons. Attracting employees can be the result of livable wage positions that may not be available in the areas that they live. It can also be a result of the employee being attached to their existing community because of the school system, family, or other personal reasons. Another issue that can affect the attraction of employees to a community is the availability of housing to meet their needs. As families move through their career paths and family status, their housing needs change and will rely on communities to provide that lifecycle housing. WORKFORCE HOUSING As a city actively developing, Monticello is taking a careful yet proactive approach to planning land use and density to ensure adequate amounts of land are guided to provide opportunities for a full range of "life cycle" housing options. The City is especially looking for opportunities to develop a range of life-cyle and "step- up" housing options as a way to attract new industrial development and jobs that offers higher paying wages. Existing Housing Value Assessment The measure of affordability of a housing unit compares housing cost to gross household income. The general standard is that housing is affordable if housing expenses equal 30% or less of a person's gross household income. Tables 6.5 and 6.6 demonstrates the value of the City of Monticello's housing stock in comparison to the entirety of Wright County. Notably, 46% of the City of Monticello's housing stock is valued between $150,000 - $250,000 compared to 29% of Wright County housing stock of the same value (refer to Table 6.5 and 6.6). This aligns with the data that suggests housing prices are increasing in Monticello compared to the County. It is important that a range of affordable housing stock in the community is maintained while also providing housing products in the higher values as well. Affordable Workforce Housing The City completed (2020) a comprehensive housing study that assesses the housing needs for the community. It is imperative that any successful economic development policies and strategies allow for the development of life -cycle housing to allow for the continued growth of the community. The policies and strategies from the housing study have been incorporated into this plan. A generally accepted standard is that in order to develop new affordable housing, the development needs to be a minimum of eight units per acre. Based on the City's future land use plan 986 acres would allow for residential development at eight units or more per acre. While the City has created a land use plan that permits areas at greater density, barriers to development of affordable housing still exist. Some of these barriers are beyond the City's control including, but not limited to: • Steady increases in land prices and State and County tax structures • Increase in construction costs. When combined with land prices, it becomes more difficult to provide affordable units through new construction. • Property constraints from wetlands, woodlands, soils, poor access or others. • Availability of regional public transit options within the City. The goals, policies, and strategies section includes specific efforts to pursue as it relates to offering a range of affordable housing options. ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ISSUES AND OPPORTUNITIES In the next 20 years the City will face a variety of issues as well as opportunities related to economic development. Many of these issues are larger in scale and will require regional and state partners to address them, especially as related to transportation and infrastructure. Tax Base Diversification One of the primary issues facing the City will be sourcing new tax revenue and normalizing the City's financial system. The City's tax base relies heavily on the Xcel MNGP which is a finite revenue stream and will eventually be gone. Communities with diverse tax bases are resilient to shifts and fluctuations in the economy more so than communities that have a single large taxpayer or a majority of businesses in a single industry or sector. When the generating station is excluded from the equation, the City's largest single taxpayer makes up only 2.3% of the total tax capacity. This allows the city to have significant stability as it replaces the Xcel MNGP taxes. However, this diversity requires the community to look to multiple projects to help fill the pending gap but also allows for the development of industry clusters to provide both tax base and employment opportunities. 126 ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OPPORTUNITY FOCUS AREAS �--7l12'o� ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT GOALS Listed below are the economic development goals which were informed by the Community Vision. For the complete set of policies and strategies for the goals refer to the Implementation Chapter. GOAL 1: BUSINESS ATTRACTION AND RETENTION A successful business attraction and retention program that attracts new businesses and retains existing businesses. NAGOAL 2: TAX BASE EXPANSION stable and expanding tax base that diversifies the city's economy and creates a sustainable employment to offset the eventual closure kGOA: Xcel Monticello Nuclear Generating Plant. L DOWNTOWN VITALITY rant and thriving Downtown that contributes to the City's economic development and housing objectives. GOAL 4: REDEVELOPMENT AND REINVESTMENT rcels consistent with meeting the City's economic development, land use and community design objectives. :GAL 5: LIFE -CYCLE HOUSING ce o w� e a commum wi a wide variety of housing options that includes workforce, starter, step up, and senior housing to allow for new and existing residents to remain and age in the community. GOAL 6: WORKFORCE DEVELOPMENT A workforce development and training program that provides the skills and knowledge needed for a wide range of jobs and opportunities. GOAL 7: PROMOTION AND PARTNERSHIPS Collaborative Partnerships and the Promotion of Monticello Economic Development Projects, Programs and Activities. GOAL 8: OPPORTUNITY FOCUS AREAS Reinvestment, redevelopment and overall improvement of the opportunity focus areas within the City. MONTICELLO 2040 VISION + PLAN 131 Properties for Sale I Industrial community.development@ci.monticello.mn.us 1763.295.2711 0 111\CYF:u�f; ? Z.: 3 4-7 5 ,r Legend Privately Owned Properties - Guided Industrial City Owned Properties - Guided Industrial Updated January 2024 TO 10 85TH ST NE 15 16 ' CITY OF Monticello 1 155-273-001010 City of Monticello 9.764 $0.00 1-1 2 155-273-001020 City of Monticello 6.19 $0.00 1-1 3 155-194-000020 City of Monticello 6.67 $0.00 1-1 4 155-274-001010 City of Monticello 7.94 $0.00 1-1 5 155-274-002010 City of Monticello 10.384 $0.00 1-1 6 155-274-002020 City of Monticello 8.886 $0.00 1-1 7 155-274-003010 City of Monticello 6.28 $0.00 1-1 8 155-248-001030 J X Bowers LLC 8.02 $336 IBC 9 155-248-001020 J X Bowers LLC 4.98 $232 IBC 10 155-271-000030 Gold Nugget Development Inc 88.97 $14,032 IBC 11 155-029-002050 Bravera Bank 2.75 $5,198 IBC 12 155-255-001010 Spaeth Development LLC 0.53 $3,466 1-2 13 155-255-001030 Spaeth Development LLC 0.47 $3,200 1-2 14 155-011-000101 Monticello Industrial Park Inc 4.31 $3,634 IBC 15 155-011-000111 Monticello Industrial Park Inc 7.76 $6,752 IBC 16 155-011-000171 Monticello Industrial Park Inc 10.5 $9,584 IBC 17 155-500-042400 Praise Acres LLC 6.48 $4,396 1-2 Properties for Sale I Guided Commercial community.development@ci.monticello.mn.us 1763.295.2711 Updated January 2024 --.-VCITY OF Monticello 1 155-248-001030 J X Bowers LLC 8.02 $336 IBC 2 155-248-001020 J X Bowers LLC 4.98 $232 IBC 3 155-247-001020 Ryan Buffalo Land Company LLC 4.94 $57,412 B-3 4 155-125-000070 Ocello LLC 12.96 $6,834 B-3 5 155-151-003010 Bradley & Sharon Larson 1.78 $2,984 B-4 6 155-157-001010 Steven & Deborah Muth 1.55 $6,970 B-4 7 155-174-001010 Steven & Deborah Muth 0.9 $5,152 B-4 8 155-151-004010 Legacy Christian Academy 0.57 $2,900 B-4 9 155-189-001010 Steven & Deborah Muth 2.99 $18,218 B-4 10 155-260-001020 Vikram Aggarwal 2.01 $4,032 B-4 11 155-260-001010 Vikram Aggarwal 2.57 $4,458 B-4 12 155-164-000030 City of Monticello 7.02 $0 B-4 13 155-164-000040 City of Monticello 6.14 $0 B-4 14 155-269-000010 Ocello LLC 20.82 $11,024 PCD 15 155-227-000010 Ocello LLC 9.61 $7,446 PCD 16 155-230-000010 City of Monticello 35.69 $27,112 PCD 17 155-500-142303 City of Monticello 2.98 $0 PCD 18 155-500-142300 City of Monticello 3.75 $0 PCD 19 155-278-001010 Deephaven Development 1.66 TBD PCD 20 155-278-001030 Deephaven Development 2.21 TBD PCD 21 155-278-001040 Deephaven Development 1.4 TBD PCD 22 155-079-001010 Jyoti R Patel 0.79 $1,932 B-3 23 155-029-002050 Bravera Bank 2.75 $5,198 IBC 24 155-226-000020 City of Monticello EDA 14.17 $47,456 B-3 25 155-241-002010 Venturian Holdings LLC Etal 2.39 $17,106 PUD 26 155-241-000010 Venturian Holdings LLC Etal 2.34 $16,814 PUD 27 155-011-000101 Monticello Industrial Park Inc 4.76 $3,634 IBC 28 155-011-000111 Monticello Industrial Park Inc 7.76 $6,752 IBC 29 155-011-000171 Monticello Industrial Park Inc 10.5 $9,584 IBC 30 155-011-000171 Monticello Industrial Park Inc 17.8 $16,246 B-2 31 155-215-002010 Church of St Henry of Monti MN 2.04 $0 B-4 32 155-212-001020 McDonald's USA LLC 1.22 $25,080 B-4 33 155-212-001030 RGC-Monticello MN LLC 1.1 $10,326 B-4 34 155-178-002030 RGC-Monticello MN LLC 1.27 $13,380 B-4 35 155-229-001020 RGC-Monticello MN LLC 0.66 $6,380 B-4 36 155-011-000010 Steven G. & Thomas E. Hoglund 3.16 $5,274 B-2 37 155-037-001010 Kean of Monticello Inc 1.92 $6,966 B-2 38 155-037-001030 Deborah Dahlheimer Rev Trust 0.39 $1,878 B-2 39 155-205-001020 RGC-Monticello MN LLC 0.93 $9,402 B-4 40 155-214-001010 PRC Acquisitions VI LLC 1.01 $3,714 B-4 41 155-214-001020 PRC Acquisitions VI LLC 2.38 $4,970 B-4 42 155-117-001030 Kwik Trip Inc 2.23 $12,632 B-2 43 155-257-001010 Mivva LLC 0.99 $1,534 B-2 44 155-271-000030 Gold Nugget Dev. Inc 88.97 $11,024 IBC DRAFT FINAL REPORT Embracing Downtown Monticello Monticello CCD Redevelopment City of Monticello, Minnesota Appendix A Market Study DOWNTOWN MONTICELLO MARKET ANALYSIS AND RETAIL SALES POTENTIAL Prepared for City of Monticello August 2011 DCD WCOMB GROUP, Ltd. 111111R E T A1I L 1'C 50 N S U LTA N T�5 DOWNTOWN MONTICELLO MARKET ANALYSIS AND RETAIL SALES POTENTIAL Prepared for City of Monticello Prepared by McComb Group, Ltd. August 2011 ©Copyright 2011 McComb Group, Ltd. TABLE OF CONTENTS Chapter Subject Page INTRODUCTION................................................................................................. iv ReportPurpose.........................................................................................................v 1 DOWNTOWN MONTICELLO.......................................................................... 1 Monticello Commercial Areas............................................................................. 1-2 Retail Establishments..................................................................................... 1-2 Service Establishments.................................................................................. 1-4 RegionalAccess................................................................................................... 1-4 TrafficCounts...................................................................................................... 1-5 Downtown Orientation......................................................................................... 1-6 2 COMPETITIVE SHOPPING AREAS................................................................ 2-1 Regional Shopping Influence............................................................................... 2-1 Community Shopping Areas................................................................................ 2-2 Neighborhood Shopping Areas............................................................................ 2-3 Convenience Retail Areas.................................................................................... 2-4 New Retail Development..................................................................................... 2-4 Summary.............................................................................................................. 2-4 3 DOWNTOWN MONTICELLO CUSTOMER SURVEY .................................. 3-1 Summary.............................................................................................................. 3-4 4 MONTICELLO TRADE AREAS....................................................................... 4-1 Population and Households.................................................................................. 4-2 HouseholdIncome............................................................................................... 4-4 Demographic Characteristics............................................................................... 4-6 Employment....................................................................................................... 4-10 PurchasingPower............................................................................................... 4-11 5 MONTICELLO RETAIL SALES AND MARKET SHARE ............................. 5-1 RetailSales........................................................................................................... 5-1 MarketShare........................................................................................................ 5-2 SalesPotential...................................................................................................... 5-4 6 MONTICELLO RETAIL POTENTIAL AND RECOMMENDATIONS .......... 6-1 Monticello Retail Potential.................................................................................. 6-2 APPENDICES......................................................................... under separate cover 0 LIST OF TABLES Table Title Page 1-1 Summary of Monticello Retail and Services by Area.........................................1-2 St. Paul MSA Population and Households: 1990 and 2000 Census; 1-2 Monticello Retail Establishments by Area..........................................................1-3 2010 and 2015 Estimated............................................................................... 1-3 Monticello Service Establishments by Area ........................................................ 1-4 1-4 Monticello Traffic Counts: 2008 and 2030..........................................................1-6 Population and Households: 2000 Census; 2010 and 2015 Estimated .......... 1-5 Downtown Commercial Building Orientation; Area North of Railroad Monticello Downtown and Secondary Trade Areas and Minneapolis - Tracks............................................................................................................. 1-7 3-1 Downtown Monticello Customer Survey; October 2010 .................................... 3-1 3-2 Downtown Monticello Customer Survey; October 2010: Monticello Downtown and Secondary Trade Areas and Minneapolis - Survey Respondents by Residence Location ................................................. 3-2 3-3 Downtown Monticello Customer Survey; October 2010 2010 and 2015 Estimated............................................................................... 4-5 Survey Respondents that Work in Monticello by Residence Location ......... 3-2 3-4 Downtown Monticello Customer Survey; October 2010 Monticello Secondary Trade Area (Donut) Demographic and Income Survey Respondents by Reason for Stopping ................................................ 3-3 3-5 Downtown Monticello Customer Survey; October 2010 Minneapolis -St. Paul MSA Demographic and Income Snapshot ........................ 4-9 Survey Respondents by Gender..................................................................... 3-3 3-6 Downtown Monticello Customer Survey; October 2010 Monticello Downtown Trade Area Retail Purchasing Power; 2010 and Survey Respondents by Day of Survey......................................................... 3-4 4-1 Monticello Downtown and Secondary Trade Areas; and Minneapolis - St. Paul MSA Population and Households: 1990 and 2000 Census; 2010 and 2015 Estimated............................................................................... 4-2 4-2 Downtown and Secondary Trade Areas and North Submarket Population and Households: 2000 Census; 2010 and 2015 Estimated .......... 4-3 4-3 Monticello Downtown and Secondary Trade Areas and Minneapolis - St. Paul MSA Average and Median Household Income: 1990 and 2000 Census; 2010 and 2015 Estimated........................................................ 4-4 4-4 Monticello Downtown and Secondary Trade Areas and Minneapolis - St. Paul MSA Household Income Distribution: 1990 and 2000 Census; 2010 and 2015 Estimated............................................................................... 4-5 4-5 Monticello Downtown Trade Area Demographic and Income Snapshot............ 4-7 4-6 Monticello Secondary Trade Area (Donut) Demographic and Income Snapshot......................................................................................................... 4-8 4-7 Minneapolis -St. Paul MSA Demographic and Income Snapshot ........................ 4-9 4-8 Wage and Salary Employment; 2000 -2010 ....................................................... 4-10 4-9 Monticello Downtown Trade Area Retail Purchasing Power; 2010 and 2015.............................................................................................................. 4-11 ii LIST OF TABLES (continued) Table Title Page 5-1 Monticello Retail Sales and Service Sales: 2002 and 2007 ................................. 5-1 5-2 Monticello Purchasing Power, Retail Sales and Market Share; 2007 ................. 5-3 5-3 City of Monticello Market Share and Downtown Trade Area Sales ................... 5-4 5-4 Downtown Monticello Retail Purchasing Power, Market Share and Sales Potential; 2015 by Merchandise Category ..................................................... 5-5 5-5 Downtown Monticello Retail Sales Potential and Supportable Space; 2015 by Merchandise Category..................................................................... 5-5 6-1 Downtown Monticello Suggested Supportable Space Summary by Merchandise Category................................................................................... 6-2 6-2 Downtown Monticello Supportable Space; 2010, 2015 and 2020 by Merchandise and Service Category............................................................... 6-4 LIST OF MAPS Map Title Pie 1-1 Downtown Monticello Study Area...................................................................... 1-1 2-1 Competitive Shopping Areas............................................................................... 2-1 3-1 Downtown Monticello Trade Area and Customer Spotting ................................ 3-1 4-1 Monticello Downtown and Secondary Trade Areas............................................4-1 4-2 Monticello Downtown and Secondary Trade Areas Estimated 2015 Household Density 4-3 Monticello Downtown and Secondary Trade Areas Estimated 2015 Household Income: Percent Above $75,000 ................................................. 4-6 iii INTRODUCTION This report was prepared for the City of Monticello by McComb Group, Ltd. and its subcontractor Economic Development Services, Inc. This report contains the retail market research and findings. Work tasks conducted during this engagement are summarized below. ♦ Business establishments in downtown Monticello were identified and categorized by type to determine tenant mix and market orientation. Business establishments that were evaluated include, but were not limited to: retail stores, food service, service establishments, and medical offices. Factors evaluated include, but were not limited to: regional access to downtown Monticello, pedestrian circulation, parking, and proximity to other uses in downtown. ♦ Shopping areas that are competitive with downtown Monticello were identified and evaluated. Principal competitors were identified and evaluated for anchor stores and tenant mix. New developments anticipated in Monticello were identified, to the extent possible, to determine possible competitive impacts. ♦ Retail businesses in downtown Monticello were asked to participate in a survey of their customers to determine where they live and work and why they shop at that business. Nine businesses participated in the survey and three other businesses provided customer information. This information was used to assist in identifying the downtown trade area for Monticello retailers and the amount of inflow patronage. ♦ The trade area for downtown Monticello was delineated based on arterial road patterns, competitive shopping areas, customer survey results, and McComb Group experience. The economy of the trade area was analyzed to identify and quantify those factors that generate support for retail and service establishments. Factors that were evaluated include, but were not limited to: employment, population, households, and household income. Retail and service purchasing power of trade area households was estimated using McComb Group's proprietary retail purchasing power software that contains spending potential for over 120 business establishments. ♦ Retail sales trends in Monticello were examined to determine market share trends, which included Monticello retail sales for 2002 and 2007 from the Retail Census updated by McComb Group using local information and Minnesota sales tax records. ♦ Market demand for retail, food service, and service business establishments in downtown Monticello were identified based on estimated trade area population and household growth taking into consideration competitive impacts, trade area demographics, trade area purchasing power, and estimated market share. Based on this analysis, sales potential and future demand for retail, food service, and service space was estimated by business type for Monticello for 2010, 2015, 2020, 2025, and 2030. Short-term estimates (2010, 2015, and 2020) are contained in the report. Long-term estimates are contained in IMA a separate appendix. This analysis included identifying niche markets and specialty retail opportunities in downtown Monticello. Report Purpose This report was prepared in accordance with our contract dated September 10, 2010. This report was prepared with the understanding that the results of our work will be used by the client to determine market demand for additional development in downtown Monticello for the period 2010 to 2030. Our report was prepared for that purpose and is subject to the following qualifications: • Our analysis did not ascertain the legal and regulatory requirements applicable to this project including zoning, other state, and local government regulations, permits, and licenses. No effort was made to determine the possible effect on the proposed project of present or future federal, state, or local legislation, or any environmental or ecological matters. • Our report and analysis was based on estimates, assumptions and other information developed from research of the market, knowledge of the industry and discussions with the client. Some assumptions inevitably will not materialize and unanticipated events and circumstances may occur; therefore, actual results achieved will vary from the analysis. • Our analysis did not evaluate management's effectiveness nor are we responsible for future marketing efforts and other management actions upon which actual results are dependent. Our report is intended solely for the purpose described above and should not be used for any other purpose without our prior written permission. Permission for other use of the report will be granted only upon meeting company standards for the proposed use. Chapter 1 DOWNTOWN MONTICELLO Monticello is located about 37 miles northwest of Minneapolis and about 27 miles southeast of St. Cloud. Monticello has become a sub -regional center for consumer, business, and medical services. Monticello is home to Cargill Kitchen Solutions, New River Medical Center, Xcel Energy, Bondus, UMC, and Haugland Bus and Truck Company. Its location on I-94 and proximity to two major metropolitan areas has made Monticello a growing residential and commercial area. Downtown Monticello, shown in red on Map 1-1, is located between the Mississippi River and I- 94. Downtown Monticello includes about 18 square blocks and is bound by River Street on the north, I-94 on the south, Maple Street on the west and Palm Street on the east. This downtown Monticello definition, which is used throughout this study, differs from the Monticello Downtown Business Association downtown boundaries, shown in blue on Map 1-1. The south end of downtown is anchored by Cub Foods and Kmart, and the north end is anchored by Broadway. A Walgreens has recently opened at Broadway and TH-25. Downtown Monticello offers a variety of goods and services for area consumers. Map 1-1 DOWNTOWN MONTICELLO STUDY AREA ® Copyright 2011 McComb Group, Ltd. 1-1 02/28/11 0 R ni V U E � � iv 3 E e~w � e �n1 sr I' �e O M ❑BA Ar9a 0 Study Area !) 5Wa 1' = 0 26 .!1- $ t H ® Copyright 2011 McComb Group, Ltd. 1-1 02/28/11 MONTICELLO COMMERCIAL AREAS Monticello has added a number of major retailers over the last ten years as a result of its strategic position and increasing trade area population. This new commercial growth, primarily south of I-94 and east of downtown, complements the established downtown shopping area. In general, there are three commercial areas in Monticello: downtown, east Monticello, and south of I-94. These three commercial areas are described below. Monticello's three retail areas have 247 retail and service establishments, as shown in Table 1-1. These businesses were identified during a windshield survey conducted in September 2010 for this study. Downtown Monticello has the largest concentration of retail and service establishments with approximately 150 establishments. The south of I-94 retail area contains over 74 retail and service establishments; while the east Monticello retail area has 23 stores. Vacancy represents store spaces and is highest in the east Monticello area with 14.8 percent of the store fronts vacant. Downtown vacancy is slightly lower at 13.8 percent, and south of I-94 has been experiencing retail vacancy of 10.8 percent. Table 1-1 SUMMARY OF MONTICELLO RETAIL AND SERVICES BY AREA Merchandise Category RETAIL Convenience Goods Food Service Convenience/Gas Shopping Goods Other Stores Total Retail S ERVICES Personal Services Other Services Automotive Services Financial Other Offices (Other than Financial) Medical Other Community Total Services TOTAL VACANT Percent Source: McComb Group, Ltd. Retail Establishments Almost one-half of all the commercial establishments are retail stores. Downtown has the largest concentration of retail stores with 54 establishments, as shown in Table 1-2. The two largest retail categories within downtown are food service and shopping goods. Almost one-half of downtown retail establishments are shopping goods (25) concentrated in the other shopping 1-2 South of East Downtown I-94 Monticello Total 5 0 2 7 18 13 4 35 3 3 2 8 25 7 5 37 3 11 1 15 54 34 14 102 24 8 2 34 8 11 19 3 5 2 10 21 9 3 33 20 3 23 10 3 2 15 1 1 10 10 96 40 9 145 150 74 23 247 24 9 4 37 13.8% 10.8% 14.8% 13.0% Almost one-half of all the commercial establishments are retail stores. Downtown has the largest concentration of retail stores with 54 establishments, as shown in Table 1-2. The two largest retail categories within downtown are food service and shopping goods. Almost one-half of downtown retail establishments are shopping goods (25) concentrated in the other shopping 1-2 goods category. Downtown has 18 food service options, which is the largest concentration of food service within Monticello. This area also has five convenience goods stores and three convenience/gasoline establishments. The south of I-94 area has 34 retail establishments with food service being the largest category with 13 restaurants (nine limited service and four full service). Motor vehicle dealers and parts has eight establishments consisting of four auto dealers, one recreational vehicle dealer and three tire or auto parts stores. Additionally, there are seven shopping goods stores and three convenience/gasoline establishments. The east Monticello area has the smallest number of retail establishments; however there are three big box retailers located in this area: SuperTarget, Home Depot, and Office Max. The largest category in this retail area is shopping goods with five establishments, followed by food service with four establishments. There are also two convenience goods stores and two convenience/gasoline establishments. In total, Monticello's largest retail categories include limited service restaurants and other shopping goods, followed by full service restaurants and motor vehicles and parts. Table 1-2 M ONTICELLO RETAIL ESTABLISHMENTS BY AREA South of East Merchandise Category Downtown 1-94 Monticello Total CONVENIENCE GOODS Food Stores 1 1 Specialty Food Stores 1 1 2 Other Convenience Goods 3 1 4 Subtotal 5 2 7 FOOD SERVICE Full Service 7 4 1 12 Limited Service 9 9 2 20 Snacks & Beverage Places 1 1 2 Drinking Places 1 1 Subtotal 18 13 4 35 CONVENIENCE/GAS 3 3 2 8 SHOPPING GOODS General Merchandise 1 1 1 3 Home Furnishings 3 1 4 Home Appliances/Music 4 2 1 7 Other Shopping Goods 17 3 3 23 Subtotal 25 7 5 37 OTHER S TORES Building M aterials/Garden 1 3 1 5 Motor Vehicles & Parts 2 8 10 Subtotal 3 11 1 15 Total Retail 54 34 14 102 Source: McComb Group, Ltd. 1-3 Service Establishments Monticello has approximately 145 service establishments located throughout the three retail areas --downtown, east Monticello, and south of I -94 --as shown in Table 1-3. The largest concentration of service providers is in downtown Monticello, which contains 96 service establishments. This area has a wide variety of service establishments, with the largest categories including personal care/personal services, financial, and other office. These three categories represent over 65 percent of this area's services. Medical and community are also well represented in this area with 10 establishments each. Additional services include seven other services, three automotive services, two dry cleaning/laundry services, and one recreation/entertainment establishment. The south of I-94 retail area has 40 service establishments with the largest categories being financial (nine), personal care (six), and automotive (five). Other service establishments include four recreation/entertainment services and three medical providers. This area is one of the newest retail developments within Monticello and contains two major entertainment venues: River City Extreme and Muller Family Theatres with 15 screens. Table 1-3 MONTICELLO SERVICE ESTABLISHMENTS BY AREA The east Monticello retail area has the smallest concentration of services with nine establishments. Service establishments for this area include three financial offices, two personal care establishments, two automotive services, and two medical providers. A detailed list of Monticello business establishments is included in the Appendix. REGIONAL ACCESS Regional access to Monticello is provided by I-94 and TH-25. I-94 runs east/west through the central portion of the state and connects Monticello to the cities of Moorhead, Fergus Falls, Alexandria, St. Cloud, Minneapolis, and St. Paul. TH-25 extends south to Buffalo and 1-4 South of East Merchandise Category Downtown I-94 Monticello Total SERVICES Personal Care 11 6 2 19 Dry Cleaning/Laundry 2 2 Personal Services 11 2 13 Rental/Leasing 1 1 Recreation/Entertainment 1 4 5 Automotive Services 3 5 2 10 Other Services 7 6 13 Financial 21 9 3 33 Other Offices (Other than Financial) 20 3 23 Medical 10 3 2 15 Other 1 1 Community 10 10 Total Services 96 40 9 145 Source: McCombGroup,Ltd. The east Monticello retail area has the smallest concentration of services with nine establishments. Service establishments for this area include three financial offices, two personal care establishments, two automotive services, and two medical providers. A detailed list of Monticello business establishments is included in the Appendix. REGIONAL ACCESS Regional access to Monticello is provided by I-94 and TH-25. I-94 runs east/west through the central portion of the state and connects Monticello to the cities of Moorhead, Fergus Falls, Alexandria, St. Cloud, Minneapolis, and St. Paul. TH-25 extends south to Buffalo and 1-4 communities west of Minneapolis and north to the Brainerd lakes area. Monticello, situated between the metro areas of Minneapolis -St. Paul and St. Cloud, benefits from its position as a major Mississippi River crossing and high traffic counts on TH-25 and I-94. Primary access to Monticello is via I-94 (east/west) and TH-25 (north/south). TH-25 is a four - lane expressway crossing the Mississippi River running north/south providing convenient accessibility to downtown. This highway also provides access from Big Lake/TH-10 and Buffalo/TH-55. TH-25 is the only Mississippi River crossing in a 25 -mile portion of the Mississippi River. TRAFFIC COUNTS The Mississippi River and I-94 both serve as physical barriers that funnel traffic to downtown Monticello. TH-25 carries 34,000 daily trips south of the Mississippi River and 34,800 trips north of I-94. At the north end of downtown, Broadway carries 25,100 trips, and I-94 entrance and exit ramps at the south end of downtown carried 23,000 trips. Excluding I-94, these are the highest traffic counts in Monticello. Traffic counts for downtown Monticello, shown in Table 1-4 are the highest for TH-25 north of Broadway at the river crossing with approximately 34,000 average daily trips in 2008, which is estimated to increase to 47,300 trips by 2030. TH-25 between Broadway and Seventh Street carried 29,500 average daily trips in 2008; while 34,800 trips were recorded between Seventh Street and I-94. Traffic counts in these areas are expected to increase to 33,900 and 39,000 respectively, in 2030. TH-25 carries a larger volume of local traffic than does I-94, which carries high volumes of through traffic. Broadway (CASH 75) extends west from downtown and is the only road that has a bridge over I- 94 in the vicinity west of Monticello. Xcel Energy is located west of downtown. Broadway also serves the New River Medical Center to the east and provides access for residents living south of the Mississippi River. Traffic counts for Broadway in 2008 were 14,300 east of TH-25 and 10,800 to the west, with projections increasing to 16,400 and 12,400, respectively, in 2030. Seventh Street at the south end of downtown serves as a service road that runs parallel to I-94 and provides access to Cub Foods and Kmart, and extends east to Target and Home Depot. In 2008 traffic counts for Seventh Street were 7,400 east of TH-25 and 8,500 west of TH-25, and are estimated to increase to 10,000 and 14,000 trips, respectively, in 2030. Traffic counts for TH-25 south of I-94 were 27,500 in 2008 for the segment between I-94 and Chelsea Road. Traffic counts for this segment are expected in increase to 33,600 by 2030. In 2008, 22,300 average daily trips were recorded for TH-25 south of Chelsea Road and estimates anticipate an increase to 27,000 trips by 2030. Chelsea Road serves as a frontage road on the south side of I-94. Traffic counts for Chelsea Road east of TH-25 were 4,900 in 2008 and are estimated to increase to 7,900 by 2030. Chelsea Road west of TH-25 carried 7,400 trips in 2008 and is projected to increase to 9,400 by 2030. 1-5 Table 1-4 MONTICELLO TRAFFIC COUNTS: 2008 AND 2030 Location 2008 2030 DOWNTOWN TH 25 North of Broadway 34,000 47,300 Between Broadway and Seventh St 29,500 33,900 Between Seventh & I-94 34,800 39,000 Broadway East of TH-25 14,300 16,400 West ofTH-25 10,800 12,400 Seventh Street East of TH-25 7,400 10,000 West ofTH-25 8,500 14,000 1[ 94 Exit/Entrance Ramps East of TH-25 17,000 20,400 West ofTH-25 6,000 7,200 S OUTH OF I 94 TH 25 Between I-94 & Chelsea 27,500 33,600 South of Chelsea 22,300 27,000 Chelsea East of TH-25 4,900 7,900 West ofTH-25 7,400 9,400 Source: Mn/DOT, WSB, Westwood, and McComb Group, Ltd. DOWNTOWN ORIENTATION Traffic patterns in Monticello have changed since downtown was platted in the mid 1800's. When downtown Monticello was originally developed, Broadway was the "main street" and primary route along the south side of the Mississippi. Those persons crossing the Mississippi used one of two ferries, a low volume form of travel. At that time, Broadway was the high volume street. Subsequently, a bridge was constructed, greatly facilitating access to the north. Over time, this river crossing was improved by newer and larger bridges increasing traffic on Pine Street, which became TH-25. Eventually, the traffic counts on Pine Street rose to where they were over twice as high as Broadway. Pine Street had become the new "main street," shifting the commercial orientation of downtown Monticello by 90 degrees. This re -orientation of downtown's "main street" and contemporary retail store desires to be located with access and visibility from the high traffic volume street, suggest that downtown should be re -oriented to Pine Street (TH-25). The 12 downtown blocks bounded by River, Palm, and Locust Streets, and the railroad tracks contain about 60 commercial buildings, excluding Cargill. Over half the buildings (53 percent) IV- orient to Broadway, as shown in Table 1-5. About one-quarter orient to side streets and only 12 buildings (20 percent) orient to TH-25, Monticello's highest traffic street. Table 1-5 DOWNTOWN COMMERCIAL BUILDING ORIENTATION AREA NORTH OF RAILROAD TRACKS Orientation Orient to Broadway Orient to Side Street Orient to TH-25 Total Source: McComb Group, Ltd. Number Percent 32 53.3 % 16 26.7 12 20.0 60 To achieve successful redevelopment, new retail stores should be oriented to TH-25 to accommodate retailer desire for visibility from high volume traffic streets. 1-7 Chapter 2 COMPETITIVE SHOPPING AREAS Monticello retail and service establishments compete with a variety of other shopping areas. Regional shopping options include large concentrations of retail and services in Maple Grove, St. Cloud, and Albertville Premium Outlets located along I-94. Community scale competitors include Elk River, Rogers, and Buffalo, the most competitive nearby communities; while St. Michael, Albertville, Otsego, and Big Lake represent competition in convenience categories. Smaller nearby communities including Becker, Clearwater, and Maple Lake, are less competitive with Monticello retail areas. Competitive shopping areas are shown on Map 2-1 and summarized below. Map 2-1 COMPETITIVE SHOPPING AREAS ese aita Pa 91- C6ud •rr Ivlfla �• Si-Avgusla le eke -� •Y . �� ■ Mr9ppC e4c 60ckrr . r"1 r� An 4e ` q�_ ; • �F ' r •�+ � •Lake /• a•� • 'R Si. MickaN W"o vp BurreW, � 4 Ha ver • • • GreanField • y� 1 R � n Competfliw Recall Areas O Home C6nter3 • Grocery r ❑ Kmart Q. Targel f r OSuperTargei { r Walmarl n .Walmarl Suparcanter 0. ❑ 2 4 8 8 Y Svalr: 1' •6-98 rNn ovRhan ak[ Elk River . Otsego Ramsey ndov r RDayt oge s • } y t, «Ch ICOD In jp Corcoran - Mapes ❑`i noklYn • ® Copyright 2011 McComb Group, Ltd- 12!08!10 Regional Shopping Influence The nearest regional shopping concentrations are Maple Grove, St. Cloud, and Albertville Premium Outlets, located about 26, 31, and seven miles, respectively, from Monticello. While these regional shopping areas do not directly compete with the stores in Monticello, they do influence shopping habits because of the large number of retail stores that are not located in Monticello. 2-1 ♦ Maple Grove regional shopping area is located about 26 miles southeast of Monticello on I-94. Maple Grove is one of the largest retail concentrations in the state. This regional retail node includes retail located in various retail concentrations throughout the city. Maple Grove retail includes such big boxes as: Menards, Walmart, Sam's Club, Rainbow, Target, Home Depot, Lowes, Cub Foods, Costco, Kohl's, and JCPenney; along with many other large retailers and food service providers. Retail centers include Maple Grove Crossing (270,000 square feet), Shoppes at Arbor Lakes (370,000 square feet), Fountains of Arbor Lakes (800,000 square feet), and the newly developed "The Grove" (538,000 square feet) located east of I-94 on Maple Grove Parkway. ♦ St. Cloud, located 31 miles northwest of Monticello, is a regional shopping destination conveniently located between TH-10 and I-94. The West Division Street area is St. Cloud's regional shopping area that extends from western St. Cloud into Waite Park. This shopping area contains the largest selection of shopping and convenience goods and other stores within the St. Cloud area with over 1.4 million square feet of retail space. This area includes Crossroads Center and a large number of big box retailers including: Walmart, Sam's Club, Kohl's, ShopKo, Cub Foods, Cash Wise Supermarket, Best Buy, Menards, Gander Mountain, Scheels, Home Depot, and Petsmart; along with a number of other large retailers. St. Cloud also contains a number of other retail areas including downtown St. Cloud, Centennial Plaza, and Northgate Shopping Center. ♦ Albertville Premium Outlets is located about seven miles east on I-94 and attracts heavy patronage from a large area, typically a one hour drive time. It contains over 100 retail stores including 65 apparel and accessories stores and 24 other shopping goods stores. This retail destination has also stimulated adjacent new development, including out lots. Although Albertville Premium Outlets are located in Albertville, it functions as a separate destination, pulling visitors from many Twin Cities and northern communities. Community Shopping Areas Community scale shopping areas are generally anchored by discount stores, superstores, and supermarkets, and provide a varied selection of convenience and shopping goods. These community scale retail areas also affect the trade area for Monticello. Tenant mix for these shopping areas is summarized below. ♦ Rogers is approximately 17 miles east of Monticello, located at the intersection of I-94 and TH-101. Rogers has a rapidly changing retail area and is anchored by SuperTarget, Kohl's, Cabela's, Cub Foods, Lowes, and Best Buy. This heavily traveled retail area has over 200 business establishments, with more than half of them in the service category -- predominately medical services, financial services, personal care, and auto services. This area also has over 25 food service options. Unanchored strip center development flourished during the early 2000's and much of this space remains vacant. ♦ Elk River, located 12 miles east of Monticello, is situated between TH-10 and TH-169, two major commuter routes. Elk River has two retail concentrations: downtown and the TH-169 retail area. Downtown is the original retail center and still provides area residents with a variety of retail stores and services. TH-169 retail area is home to big 2-2 ♦ Buffalo, located about 10 miles southwest of Monticello, has two separate retail areas: downtown and highway strip commercial. Both areas offer a variety of goods and services for area consumers. While the highway area offers big box retail and a large number of medical services, downtown Buffalo has the largest concentration of specialty shops. Major retail establishments located in Buffalo include Walmart Supercenter, Target, Cub Foods, and Menards. Neighborhood Shopping Areas Neighborhood scale shopping areas are generally anchored by supermarkets, drug, liquor, and hardware stores. These anchors are complemented by other retail stores, food services, and a wide variety of services. ♦ Albertville, located about 13 miles from Monticello, has seen tremendous growth recently in both retail and service industries. Currently, Albertville has 37 retail stores and 46 service establishments. Convenience retail and food service are the largest categories in Albertville. This shopping area is anchored by Coborn's supermarket and a hardware store. Services include personal care/personal service establishments and auto service establishments, along with a number of other services. Commercial development in Albertville was active in the early 2000's with several new developments. However, there are a large number of retail and office vacancies within Albertville at the present time. ♦ St. Michael, 11 miles east of Monticello, is an older community that experienced major commercial and infrastructure changes during the past 10 years. Expansion of TH-241 has resulted in an increase of retail and service establishments to locations along the highway. Currently, the largest concentration of merchants is in the convenience retail and food service categories. Services are represented by financial, medical, and personal care/services categories being the most common. Marketplace Foods serves as an anchor to Town Center, which includes a bank, CVS, and a new library (under construction). Walgreens recently opened a store in the downtown area. This slowly developing commercial area will help to revitalize St. Michael's commercial area. ♦ Big Lake is located on TH-10, about 3.5 miles north of Monticello. It has a number of retail stores and service establishments, primarily to meet the convenience retail and service needs of area residents. Big Lake's largest retailers include Do It Best Lumber, Hardware Hank, and Coborn's supermarket. ♦ Otsego, a small community about 11 miles east of Monticello, is located on the banks of the Mississippi River along TH-101. This service orientated retail area primarily serves the convenience retail and service needs of area residents, as well as travelers on TH-101. Otsego is home to SuperTarget, 101 Market, Holiday Stationstore, a number of food service establishments, and Holiday Inn. 2-3 Convenience Retail Areas Convenience retail areas in greater Minnesota serve small trade areas and are typically anchored by small supermarkets and other convenience retailers. Nearby convenience retail communities are described below. ♦ Becker is a small community located on TH-10, about seven miles northwest of Monticello. This community has over 60 business establishments providing convenience retail to area residents. Becker retail includes Jubilee Foods, Holiday Stationstore, and a number of food service establishments. Becker is also home to Becker Furniture World, a regional destination for furniture and home furnishing needs. ♦ Clearwater is located on I-94 about 16 miles northwest of Monticello. This community has a number of retail establishments to serve its residents and interstate travelers. Convenience retail includes Coborn's supermarket, True Value Hardware and McDonald's Meats. Clearwater Travel Plaza, a large traveler's stop, attracts interstate travelers with their general store, bakery, restaurant, food court, and fueling options. ♦ Maple Lake is located on TH-55, about 13 miles west of Monticello. This community has over 50 businesses to serve its residents and TH-55 travelers. Convenience goods stores include Maple Lake Bakery, Ace Hardware, and A-1 Meat Shoppe. New Retail Development Typically, increased residential development stimulates increased commercial development. Over the last several years, this has resulted in significant retail development in St. Michael, Rogers, and Albertville. However, current economic conditions have slowed residential development resulting in reduced tenant demand for retail space. Summary Competition for Monticello retail and service establishments is provided by neighborhood centers anchored by convenience goods stores, and community centers anchored by discount stores and other big box retailers. These centers have located along major highways in surrounding communities, such as Elk River, Big Lake, Albertville, Otsego, and Rogers to provide easy access for area consumers. Communities such as St. Michael, Maple Lake, Clearwater, and Becker grow their retail offerings slowly as their population increases. However, these communities currently only serve limited convenience needs of area consumers. 2-4 Chapter 3 DOWNTOWN MONTICELLO CUSTOMER SURVEY Retail and service businesses in Downtown Monticello were asked to conduct a brief survey of their customers as part of this study. Nine businesses participated in this survey to determine home address, work zip code, and trip purpose of their customers. Businesses that participated in the survey are listed in Table 3-1. These businesses collected information from 479 respondents, which provided important information on downtown Monticello's customer base and their residence location. Three businesses provided customer residence location that was used in analyzing downtown Monticello's trade area, but is not included in the customer survey results. Table 3-1 DOWNTOWN MONTICELLO CUSTOMER SURVEY; OCTOBER 2010 Business Participants Cornerstone Cafe & Catering Monticello Library Grady's Hardware Monticello Printing Hi -Way Liquors Quizno's Mateo's Soccer Store Walgreens Monticello Chamber of Commerce Contributed Customer Information Monticello Community Center New River Medical Center Olsen Computer Services Results from the customer survey were used to determine downtown Monticello's trade area, which is shown on Map 3-1. Survey respondent residences, each represented by a red dot, are clustered in Monticello and distributed throughout the area. Map 3-1 DOWNTOWN MONTICELLO TRADE AREA AND CUSTOMER SPOTTING ® Copyright 2011 McComb Group, Ltd 01113111 3-1 About three-quarters (74.7 percent) of the survey respondents live within downtown Monticello's trade area, as shown in Table 3-2. Survey results by city indicate that 44.5 percent of respondents live in Monticello and about 30 percent live elsewhere in the trade area. Inflow customers (respondents that live outside the trade area) represented 24.4 percent of respondents. Table 3-2 DOWNTOWN MONTICELLO CUSTOMER SURVEY, OCTOBER 2010 SURVEY RESPONDENTS BY RESIDENCE LOCATION Residence Location Number Percent Trade Area 24 14.3 Monticello 213 44.5 % Big Lake 70 14.6 Becker 26 5.4 Buffalo 17 3.5 St. M ichael 11 2.3 Maple Lake 8 1.7 Otsego 7 1.5 Albertville 6 1.3 Subtotal 358 74.7 % Inflow 117 24.4 % No Response 4 0.8 % Total 479 100.0 % Source: McComb Group,Ltd. Only 276 respondents (57.6 percent) divulged a work zip code, as shown in Table 3-3. Of the trade area respondents that provided a work zip code, 60.9 percent work in Monticello. Forty- two percent of those respondents that work in Monticello live outside the city. These employees provide additional support for downtown businesses. Table 3-3 DOWNTOWN MONTICELLO CUSTOMER SURVEY, OCTOBER 2010 SURVEY RESPONDENTS THAT WORK IN MONTICELLO BY RESIDENCE LOCATION Residence Location Trade Area Monticello Big Lake Becker Buffalo St. Michael Maple Lake Otsego Albertville/Otsego Subtotal Inflow Total Source: McComb Group, Ltd. 3-2 Work in Monticello Number Percent 97 57.7 % 24 14.3 7 4.2 2 1.2 3 1.8 4 2.4 137 81.5 % 31 18.5 % 168 100.0 % Survey responses to the question: "Why did you stop here today?" are contained in Table 3-4. Over half of the trade area respondents (51.3 percent) and 23.9 percent of inflow respondents consider themselves a "regular customer" of the business. Forty-two percent of the respondents living in the trade area said the reason they stopped was because the business was "close to home." Twenty-two percent of trade area respondents and 34.5 percent of inflow respondents gave "close to work" as their reason for stopping, reinforcing Monticello's employees as a source of customers. Trade area respondents choosing "running errands" and "driving by" (15.4 percent and 8.1 percent, respectively) reflect Monticello's convenient location. The response for "other" is typical of response levels in other surveys. Table 3-4 DOWNTOWN MONTICEL.LO CUSTOMER SURVEY, OCTOBER 2010 SURVEY RESPONDENTS BY REASON FOR STOPPING Source: McCombGroup,Ltd. The distribution of female and male respondents was almost equal: 203 female respondents and 200 male respondents, as shown in Table 3-5. Over 10 percent of respondents (11.3 percent) did not respond to this question. Some respondents indicated both genders, which appears to reflect shopper parties of two or more. Females living in the trade area (45.0 percent) outnumbered males (39.9 percent). Males were a larger proportion (47.1 percent) of inflow customers. Table 3-5 DOWNTOWN MONTICELLO CUSTOMER SURVEY; OCTOBER 2010 SURVEY RESPONDENTS BY GENDER Trade Area Inflow Total Reason Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Close to Home 144 41.7 % 4 3.5 % 148 32.3 Close to Work 75 21.7 39 34.5 114 24.9 Driving By 28 8.1 28 24.8 56 12.2 Running Errands 53 15.4 10 8.8 63 13.8 Regular Customer 177 51.3 27 23.9 204 44.5 Other 63 18.3 39 34.5 102 22.3 Total Respondents 345 75.3 % 113 24.7 % 458 95.6 Source: McCombGroup,Ltd. The distribution of female and male respondents was almost equal: 203 female respondents and 200 male respondents, as shown in Table 3-5. Over 10 percent of respondents (11.3 percent) did not respond to this question. Some respondents indicated both genders, which appears to reflect shopper parties of two or more. Females living in the trade area (45.0 percent) outnumbered males (39.9 percent). Males were a larger proportion (47.1 percent) of inflow customers. Table 3-5 DOWNTOWN MONTICELLO CUSTOMER SURVEY; OCTOBER 2010 SURVEY RESPONDENTS BY GENDER Source: McComb Group, Ltd. 3-3 Trade Area Inflow Total Gender Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Female 161 45.0 % 42 34.7 % 203 42.4 % Male 143 39.9 57 47.1 200 41.8 Both 17 4.7 5 4.1 22 4.6 Subtotal 321 89.7 % 104 86.0 % 425 88.7 % No Response 37 10.3 17 14.0 54 11.3 Total 358 100.0 % 121 100.0 % 479 100.0 % Source: McComb Group, Ltd. 3-3 Survey responses for all respondents by day are shown in Table 3-6. Responses were highest on Monday, Tuesday, Thursday, and Friday ranging from 18.1 percent to 20.7 percent. Sunday had the lowest responses (2.0 percent). Table 3-6 DOWNTOWN MONTICELLO CUSTOMER SURVEY, OCTOBER 2010 SURVEY RESPONDENTS BY DAY OF SURVEY Source: McComb Group, Ltd. Summary Survey results indicate that about three-quarters of downtown Monticello customers live in the trade area. Survey respondents are generally regular customers of the business and many respondents consider the business to be close to home. 3-4 Trade Area Inflow Total Day Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Sunday 9 100.0 % - - % 9 2.0 % Monday 61 68.5 28 31.5 89 19.6 Tuesday 71 75.5 23 24.5 94 20.7 Wednesday 48 72.7 18 27.3 66 14.5 Thursday 61 73.5 22 26.5 83 18.3 Friday 60 73.2 22 26.8 82 18.1 Saturday 25 80.6 6 19.4 31 6.8 Subtotal 335 73.8 % 119 26.2 % 454 100.0 % Source: McComb Group, Ltd. Summary Survey results indicate that about three-quarters of downtown Monticello customers live in the trade area. Survey respondents are generally regular customers of the business and many respondents consider the business to be close to home. 3-4 Chapter 4 MONTICELLO TRADE AREAS Monticello's trade areas, shown on Map 4-1, were delineated for Monticello by McComb Group based on the location of competitive shopping areas, arterial road network, natural boundaries, customer survey responses, and previous experience. Monticello has two trade areas: downtown and secondary. The downtown trade area was delineated utilizing customer survey data described in Chapter 3. The downtown trade area is the area in which 75 percent of downtown Monticello's customers live and includes Monticello, Becker, Big Lake, Albertville, St. Michael, Buffalo, and a portion of western Elk River. The downtown trade area extends east of Monticello, seven miles east into Otsego, 10 miles south to include Buffalo, west to Annandale and 11 miles north to include Becker. The secondary trade area covers a much broader area and represents the extended draw of Monticello big box retailers—SuperTarget, Walmart Supercenter, and Home Depot. The secondary trade area extends south of Monticello 14 miles, west 20 miles to include South Haven, north 19 miles to TH-95 and east 20 miles to the western border of Elk River. Communities included in the secondary trade area are Annandale, South Haven, Clearwater, and Clear Lake. The downtown and secondary trade areas cover approximately 380 and 755 square miles respectively. Map 4-1 MONTICELLO DOWNTOWN AND SECONDARY TRADE AREAS ®Copyright 2011 McComb Group, Ltd. 02/90111 4-1 Population and Households Population and household growth trends in Monticello's downtown and secondary trade areas and Minneapolis -St. Paul MSA are shown in Table 4-1. Historically, Monticello's trade areas have been growing at faster rates than the Minneapolis -St. Paul MSA. Table 4-1 MONTICELLO DOWNTOWN AND SECONDARY TRADE AREAS, AND MINNEAPOLIS -ST. PAUL MSA POPULATION AND HOUSEHOLDS 1990 AND 2000 CENSUS; 2010 AND 2015 ESTIMATED Monticello's downtown trade area population increased at an annual rate of 4.22 percent from 43,171 people in 1990 to 65,264 in 2000. Downtown trade area population growth rate fell slightly between 2000 and 2010 increasing at a 3.66 percent annually, bringing population to 93,500 by 2010. Population is estimated to increase at an annual rate of 2.21 percent to 104,277 people by 2015. Population growth in the secondary trade area is somewhat slower. Secondary trade area population increased from 19,416 to 26,233 between 1990 and 2000, an annual growth rate of 3.05 percent. From 2000 to 2010, population increased by 2.53 percent annually to 33,690. Estimates show secondary trade area population increasing at less than one percent annually to 34,634 people by 2015. Population growth in the Minneapolis -St. Paul MSA is much slower than Monticello's trade areas. Population in the MSA increased at 1.56 percent annually from 1990 to 2000 and 1.07 percent from 2000 to 1010. Estimates show that population in the MSA is expected to increase at less than one percent annually through 2015. 4-2 Downtown Secondary Minneapolis -St. Paul Trade Area Trade Area MSA Population 1990 43,171 19,416 2,542,631 2000 65,264 26,233 2,968,806 2010E 93,500 33,690 3,302,532 2015E 104,277 34,634 3,465,615 Annual Growth Rate 1990-2000 4.22 % 3.05 % 1.56 % 2000-2010E 3.66 2.53 1.07 2010E -2015E 2.21 0.55 0.97 Households 1990 14,307 6,505 961,627 2000 22,368 9,114 1,136,615 2010E 32,931 11,871 1,265,491 2015E 37,258 11,866 1,294,127 Annual Growth Rate 1990-2000 4.57 % 3.43 % 1.69 % 2000-2010E 3.94 2.68 1.08 2010E -2015E 2.50 (0.01) 0.45 E: Estimated. Source: U.S. Census, Scan/US,Inc. and McComb Group, Ltd. Monticello's downtown trade area population increased at an annual rate of 4.22 percent from 43,171 people in 1990 to 65,264 in 2000. Downtown trade area population growth rate fell slightly between 2000 and 2010 increasing at a 3.66 percent annually, bringing population to 93,500 by 2010. Population is estimated to increase at an annual rate of 2.21 percent to 104,277 people by 2015. Population growth in the secondary trade area is somewhat slower. Secondary trade area population increased from 19,416 to 26,233 between 1990 and 2000, an annual growth rate of 3.05 percent. From 2000 to 2010, population increased by 2.53 percent annually to 33,690. Estimates show secondary trade area population increasing at less than one percent annually to 34,634 people by 2015. Population growth in the Minneapolis -St. Paul MSA is much slower than Monticello's trade areas. Population in the MSA increased at 1.56 percent annually from 1990 to 2000 and 1.07 percent from 2000 to 1010. Estimates show that population in the MSA is expected to increase at less than one percent annually through 2015. 4-2 In 2010, Monticello's downtown and secondary trade areas had a combined population of 127,190 which is estimated to increase to almost 139,000 in 2015, an annual growth rate of 1.74 percent. Downtown trade area households increased at a rate of 4.57 percent annually between 1990 and 2000 and an annual rate of 3.94 percent from 2000 to 2010. Households are estimated to increase from 32,931 in 2010 to 37,258 by 2015, an annual growth rate of 2.50 percent. Household growth for the secondary trade area is somewhat slower; households increased at a rate of 2.68 percent annually from 2000 to 2010, increasing households to 11,871 in 2010. Households are expected to decrease by five households to 11,866 by 2015. Households within the MSA are increasing at slower rates. From 1990 to 2000 MSA households increased at an annual rate of 1.69 percent, which dropped to 1.08 percent annual growth between 2000 and 2010. Estimates show MSA household growth of less than one percent from 2010 to 2015. Monticello's downtown and secondary households are estimated to increase from 44,802 in 2010 to 49,124 in 2015, an annual growth rate of 1.86 percent. Physical barriers created by the Mississippi River and I-94 and the resulting impacts on local road systems influence local travel patterns. These barriers direct customers living north of I-94 and the Mississippi River through downtown Monticello on their way to the retail area along south TH-25. About one-third of the downtown and secondary trade area population and households live in this northerly portion of Monticello's trade areas, as shown in Table 4-2. Table 4-2 DOWNTOWN AND SECONDARY TRADE AREAS AND NORTH SUBMARKET POPULATION AND HOUSEHOLDS: 2000 CENSUS; 2010 AND 2015 ESTIMATED Source: Scan/US,Inc. and McComb Group, Ltd. Estimated household density in 2015 for the Monticello trade areas is shown on Map 4-2. Density is highest in the larger trade area communities, but there are large areas outside the cities with medium levels of density, indicative of rural large lot development. 4-3 Downtown Trade Area Secondary Trade Area North Submarket North Submarket Total Number Percent Total Number Percent Population 2000 65,264 20,747 31.8 % 26,233 11,471 43.7 % 2010E 93,500 28,646 30.6 33,690 16,090 47.8 2015E 104,277 31,411 30.1 34,634 16,163 46.7 Households 2000 22,368 6,815 30.5 % 9,114 3,278 36.0 % 2010E 32,931 9,320 28.3 11,871 5,151 43.4 2015E 37,258 11,911 32.0 11,866 5,051 42.6 Source: Scan/US,Inc. and McComb Group, Ltd. Estimated household density in 2015 for the Monticello trade areas is shown on Map 4-2. Density is highest in the larger trade area communities, but there are large areas outside the cities with medium levels of density, indicative of rural large lot development. 4-3 Map 4-2 MONTICELLO DOWNTOWN AND SECONDARY TRADE AREAS ESTIMATED 2015 HOUSEHOLD DENSITY C Copyngh! 2011 McComo Group, Ltd. 021l4m Household Income Average household income in Monticello's downtown and secondary trade areas and Minneapolis -St. Paul MSA are shown in Table 4-3. Downtown trade area average household income in 2010 was $80,066 compared to $83,046 in the secondary trade area and $86,856 in the MSA. It is estimated that average household incomes for these three areas will continue to increase through 2015, increasing Monticello's downtown and secondary trade areas average household incomes to $84,957 and $88,495, respectively, and $93,497 for the MSA. Table 4-3 MONTICELLO DOWNTOWN AND SECONDARY TRADE AREAS AND MINNEAPLIS-ST. PAUL M SA AVERAGE AND MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME 1990 AND 2000 CENSUS; 2010 AND 2015 ESTIMATED E: Estimated. Source: McComb Group, Ltd Downtown Secondary Minneapolis - Trade Area Trade Area St. Paul M SA Average Household Income 1990 $ 39,037 $ 38,087 $ 43,703 2000 64,631 67,377 67,713 2010E 80,066 83,046 86,856 2015E 84,957 88,495 93,497 Median Household Income 1990 $ 34,861 $ 33,951 $ 37,631 2000 56,060 55,547 54,734 2010E 69,448 68,680 65,421 2015E 74,290 73,295 69,896 E: Estimated. Source: McComb Group, Ltd The proportion of Monticello's trade area households with incomes above $75,000, $100,000, and $150,000 are shown in Table 4-4. Downtown and secondary trade area proportions of households with incomes above $75,000 are similar. In 2010, 45.2 percent of downtown and secondary trade area households had incomes above $75,000, households with incomes above $100,000 in both trade areas were about 24.0 percent, and households above $150,000 represented over 5.6 percent of the households in the downtown trade area and 6.1 percent of households in the secondary trade area. In 2015, the downtown and secondary trade areas are expected to have over 13,900 households with incomes above $100,000 and over 3,100 households with incomes above $150,000. Table 4-4 MONTICELLO DOWNTOWN AND SECONDARYTRADE AREAS AND MINNEAPLIS-ST. PAUL MSA HOUSEHOLD INCOME DISTRIBUTION 1990 AND 2000 CENSUS; 2010 AND 2015 ESTIMATED E: Estimated. Source: McComb Group, Ltd Distribution of households with incomes above $75,000 in 2015, shown on Map 4-3, demonstrates that the affluent households are distributed throughout the trade area. In large sections of the downtown and secondary trade areas, over 50 percent of the households have incomes above $75,000. 4-5 Downtown Secondary M inneap olis- Trade Area Trade Area St. Paul M SA Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Households above $75,000 1990 873 6.2 % 398 6.2 % 107,842 11.2 % 2000 6,222 27.9 2,509 27.6 357,670 31.5 2010E 14,864 45.2 5,349 45.2 548,648 43.4 2015E 18,778 50.4 5,914 50.0 605,975 46.8 Households above $100,000 1990 321 2.3 % 116 1.8 % 47,969 5.0 % 2000 2,586 11.6 989 10.9 192,041 16.9 2010E 8,131 24.7 2,829 23.9 350,110 27.7 2015E 10,656 28.6 3,255 27.5 398,807 30.8 Households above $150,000 1990 99 0.7 % 33 0.5 % 17,264 1.8 % 2000 549 2.5 255 2.8 67,087 5.9 2010E 1,841 5.6 724 6.1 137,558 10.9 2015E 2,310 6.2 830 7.0 158,679 12.3 E: Estimated. Source: McComb Group, Ltd Distribution of households with incomes above $75,000 in 2015, shown on Map 4-3, demonstrates that the affluent households are distributed throughout the trade area. In large sections of the downtown and secondary trade areas, over 50 percent of the households have incomes above $75,000. 4-5 Map 4-3 MONTICELLO DOWNTOWN AND SECONDARY TRADE AREAS ESTIMATED 2015 HOUSEHOLD INCOME: PERCENT ABOVE $75,000 ® Copy nght 2011 McComb Group, Ltd. 12/21/10 Demographic Characteristics Demographic characteristics for Monticello's trade areas and Minneapolis -St. Paul MSA are summarized in the demographic snapshots contained in Tables 4-5, 4-6, and 4-7. These snapshots contain census data for 1990 and 2000, as well as estimates for 2010 and 2015. These estimates were provided by Scan/US, Inc., a source of census comparable demographic information. Significant characteristics of the Monticello trade areas include the following: ♦ In 2010, 32.7 percent of the population in the Monticello downtown trade area was under the age of 19. By 2015, Monticello's downtown trade area is expected to have 32.9 percent of the population under the age of 19. This is slightly higher than the secondary trade area with 30.7 percent under the age of 19 in 2010 and 30.6 percent in 2015. ♦ There is a higher percentage of population over the age of 65 in the secondary trade area than in the downtown trade area. In 2010 9.2 percent of the population of the secondary trade area was over the age of 65 and it is expected to increase to 11.1 percent by 2015. Downtown trade area percent of population over the age of 65 was 8.3 percent in 2010 and is projected to reach 9.7 percent by 2015. Table 4-5 021D McComb DEMOGRAPHIC AND INCOME SNAPSHOT Percent Number Percent 000 Group, Ltd. Percent Number Percent White 42,748 99.0 % 63,914 97.9 % Monticello Downtown Trade Area 95.2 % 99,063 95.0 % Black 43 0.1 134 11/4/2011 SNAPSHOT 1990 Census 2000 Census 2010 Estimated 2015 Projected Population 0.3 43,171 0.3 65,264 0.4 93,500 0.4 104,277 Households 0.4 14,307 0.4 22,368 1.2 32,931 1.2 37,258 Families 0.1 11,355 1.1 17,325 2.1 24,813 2.1 27,726 Per Capita Income $ 12,979 $ 22,417 $ 28,304 $ 28,903 Median Household Income $ 34,861 $ 56,060 $ 69,448 $ 74,290 Average Household Income $ 39,037 $ 64,631 $ 80,066 $ 84,957 Average Household Size 2.99 2.89 2.82 2.93 Median Age 29 32 34 34 Annual Percent Change TRENDS 1990-2000 2000-2010 2010-2015 Population 4.22 % 3.66 % 2.21 % Households 4.57 3.94 2.50 Families 4.32 3.66 2.25 Median Household Income 4.87 2.16 1.36 Average Household Income 5.17 2.16 1.19 1990 Census 2000 Census 2010 Estimated 2015 Projected HOUSEHOLDS BY INCOME Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Less than $15,000 2,208 15.6 % 1,437 6.4% 1,553 4.7 % 1,565 4.2 % $15,000 - $24,999 2,219 15.7 1,662 7.4 1,665 5.1 1,677 4.5 $25,000 - $34,999 2,648 18.7 2,388 10.7 2,430 7.4 2,422 6.5 $35,000 - $49,999 3,598 25.4 4,013 18.0 4,349 13.2 4,396 11.8 $50,000 - $74,999 2,614 18.5 6,607 29.6 8,039 24.4 8,383 22.5 $75,000 - $99,999 552 3.9 3,636 16.3 6,733 20.5 8,122 21.8 $100,000 - $149,999 222 1.6 2,037 9.1 6,290 19.1 8,346 22.4 $150,000+ 99 0.7 549 2.5 1,841 5.6 2,310 6.2 POPULATION BY AGE Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent <19 15,598 36.1 % 22,983 35.2 % 30,616 32.7 % 34,307 32.9 % 20-24 2,667 6.2 3,367 5.2 5,447 5.8 6,882 6.6 25-34 8,252 19.1 10,707 16.4 13,972 14.9 13,243 12.7 35-44 6,665 15.4 12,112 18.6 14,085 15.1 14,077 13.5 45-54 3,982 9.2 7,587 11.6 13,220 14.1 14,495 13.9 55-64 2,481 5.7 4,111 6.3 8,475 9.1 11,053 10.6 65-74 1,861 4.3 2,323 3.6 4,723 5.1 6,361 6.1 75-84 1,676 3.9 1,492 2.3 2,121 2.3 2,815 2.7 85+ NA NA 549 0.8 829 0.9 938 0.9 RACE AND ETHNICITY Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent White 42,748 99.0 % 63,914 97.9 % 88,992 95.2 % 99,063 95.0 % Black 43 0.1 134 0.2 1,018 1.1 1,356 1.3 Native American 133 0.3 193 0.3 368 0.4 417 0.4 Asian/Pacific Islander 188 0.4 275 0.4 1,133 1.2 1,251 1.2 Other Races 58 0.1 747 1.1 1,989 2.1 2,190 2.1 Hispanic (Any Race) 191 0.4 726 1.1 2,119 2.3 2,711 2.6 Source: U.S. Census, Scan/US, Inc. and McComb Group, Ltd. Table 4-6 Oo OONO Mccomb DEMOGRAPHIC AND INCOME SNAPSHOT 1,104 ❑O❑ Group, Ltd. 1,092 16.8 1,215 18.7 Monticello Secondary Trade Area (Donut) 24.4 1,102 11/4/2011 SNAPSHOT 1990 Census 2000 Census 2010 Estimated 2015 Projected Population 19,416 26,233 33,690 34,634 Households 6,505 9,114 11,871 11,866 Families 5,257 7,153 8,958 8,784 Per Capita Income $ 12,748 $ 23,537 $ 29,354 $ 30,421 Median Household Income $ 33,951 $ 55,547 $ 68,680 $ 73,295 Average Household Income $ 38,087 $ 67,377 $ 83,046 $ 88,495 Average Household Size 2.96 2.85 2.81 2.89 Median Age 32 35 37 38 Annual Percent Change TRENDS 1990-2000 2000-2010 2010-2015 Population 3.05 % 2.53 % 0.55 % Households 3.43 2.68 -0.01 Families 3.13 2.28 -0.39 Median Household Income 5.05 2.14 1.31 Average Household Income 5.87 2.11 1.28 HOUSEHOLDS BY INCOME Less than $15,000 $15,000 - $24,999 $25,000 - $34,999 $35,000 - $49,999 $50,000 - $74,999 $75,000 - $99,999 $100,000 - $149,999 $150,000+ POPULATION BY AGE <19 20-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75-84 85+ RACE AND ETHNICITY White Black Native American Asian/Pacific Islander Other Races Hispanic (Any Race) 1990 Census 2000 Census Number Percent 1,104 17.0% 1,092 16.8 1,215 18.7 1,586 24.4 1,102 16.9 287 4.4 85 1.3 33 0.5 Number Percent 6,665 34.3 % 952 4.9 3,237 16.7 3,124 16.1 2,037 10.5 1,421 7.3 1,199 6.2 781 4.0 NA NA Number Percent 695 7.6 % 729 8.0 819 9.0 1,650 18.1 2,706 29.7 1,524 16.7 736 8.1 256 2.8 Number Percent 8,862 33.8 % 1,067 4.1 3,486 13.3 5,140 19.6 3,568 13.6 2,136 8.1 1,177 4.5 617 2.4 180 0.7 2010 Estimated 2015 Projected Number Percent Number Percent 692 5.8 % 638 5.4 % 623 5.3 551 4.6 727 6.1 643 5.4 1,534 12.9 1,352 11.4 2,929 24.7 2,749 23.2 2,528 21.3 2,667 22.5 2,112 17.8 2,433 20.5 726 6.1 832 7.0 Number Percent 10,327 30.7 % 1,526 4.5 4,055 12.0 5,289 15.7 5,509 16.4 3,865 11.5 2,103 6.2 779 2.3 238 0.7 Number 10,615 1,686 3,812 4,795 5,347 4,542 2,643 927 268 Percent 30.6 % 4.9 11.0 13.8 15.4 13.1 7.6 2.7 0.8 Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent 19,238 99.1 % 25,766 98.2 % 32,376 96.1 % 33,290 96.1 % 31 0.2 74 0.3 373 1.1 446 1.3 68 0.3 83 0.3 132 0.4 146 0.4 63 0.3 72 0.3 263 0.8 272 0.8 17 0.1 239 0.9 546 1.6 481 1.4 50 0.3 238 0.9 570 1.7 647 1.9 Source: U.S. Census, Scan/US, Inc. and McComb Group, Ltd. Table 4-7 pwo© McComb Number DEMOGRAPHIC AND INCOME SNAPSHOT Number Percent Number 000 Group, Ltd. Number Percent White 2,347,622 92.3 %2,556,851 86.1 %2,757,948 Minneapolis -St. Paul MSA 82.8 % Black 90,071 3.5 157,963 5.3 221,450 11/4/2011 SNAPSHOT 1990 Census 2000 Census 2010 Estimated 2015 Projected Population 0.7 2,542,631 0.8 2,968,806 0.9 3,302,532 65,618 3,465,615 Households 4.2 961,627 5.3 1,136,615 5.7 1,265,491 15,053 1,294,127 Families 3.7 649,907 3.7 744,303 3.6 813,402 37,942 822,812 Per Capita Income $ 16,667 $ 26,641 $ 33,625 $ 35,273 Median Household Income $ 37,631 $ 54,734 $ 65,421 $ 69,896 Average Household Income $ 43,703 $ 67,713 $ 86,856 $ 93,497 Average Household Size 2.59 2.56 2.56 2.62 Median Age 32 34 36 37 Annual Percent Change TRENDS 1990-2000 2000-2010 2010-2015 Population 1.56 % 1.07 % 0.97 % Households 1.69 1.08 0.45 Families 1.37 0.89 0.23 Median Household Income 3.82 1.80 1.33 Average Household Income 4.48 2.52 1.48 1990 Census 2000 Census 2010 Estimated 2015 Projected HOUSEHOLDS BY INCOME Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Less than $15,000 158,760 16.5 % 104,519 9.2 % 108,610 8.6 % 108,837 8.4 % $15,000 - $24,999 145,590 15.2 104,638 9.2 91,791 7.3 87,497 6.8 $25,000 - $34,999 151,645 15.8 125,123 11.0 102,729 8.1 94,583 7.3 $35,000 - $49,999 206,924 21.6 179,335 15.8 162,712 12.9 154,857 12.0 $50,000 - $74,999 188,993 19.7 265,330 23.3 251,001 19.8 242,378 18.7 $75,000 - $99,999 59,873 6.2 165,629 14.6 198,538 15.7 207,168 16.0 $100,000 - $149,999 30,705 3.2 124,954 11.0 212,552 16.8 240,128 18.6 $150,000+ 17,264 1.8 67,087 5.9 137,558 10.9 158,679 12.3 POPULATION BY AGE Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent <19 738,155 29.0 % 873,680 29.4 % 903,568 27.4 % 956,584 27.6 % 20-24 193,055 7.6 193,790 6.5 213,967 6.5 217,012 6.3 25-34 511,549 20.1 457,105 15.4 477,084 14.4 449,885 13.0 35-44 415,664 16.3 528,024 17.8 460,322 13.9 468,964 13.5 45-54 253,035 10.0 405,724 13.7 500,413 15.2 479,512 13.8 55-64 180,490 7.1 225,540 7.6 380,864 11.5 449,369 13.0 65-74 139,086 5.5 145,808 4.9 202,665 6.1 268,995 7.8 75-84 111,458 4.4 100,485 3.4 108,822 3.3 120,887 3.5 85+ NA NA 38,650 1.3 54,827 1.7 54,407 1.6 RACE AND ETHNICITY Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent White 2,347,622 92.3 %2,556,851 86.1 %2,757,948 83.5 %2,868,321 82.8 % Black 90,071 3.5 157,963 5.3 221,450 6.7 244,745 7.1 Native American 24,267 1.0 21,590 0.7 27,918 0.8 29,791 0.9 Asian/Pacific Islander 65,618 2.6 124,025 4.2 174,656 5.3 198,521 5.7 Other Races 15,053 0.6 108,377 3.7 120,560 3.7 124,237 3.6 Hispanic (Any Race) 37,942 1.5 99,121 3.3 166,016 5.0 195,788 5.6 Source: U.S. Census, Scan/US, Inc. and McComb Group, Ltd. ♦ Both trade areas are primarily Caucasian with over 95.0 percent of the population being white, which is expected to be about the same in 2015. ♦ Average household size is similar for both trade areas, which ranges from 2.81 to 2.93 between 2010 and 2015. ♦ Median age is higher for the secondary trade area with 37 as the median age in 2010 and 38 projected for 2015. The downtown trade area median age was 34 in 2010 and is expected to stay 34 for 2015. Additional demographic characteristics for Monticello's trade areas and Minneapolis -St. Paul MSA are contained in Appendix B. Employment Monticello wage and salary employment was 5,562 in 2000 according to the Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development, as shown in Table 4-8. Employment rose to a peak of 7,112 in 2007 and fell to a low of 6,639 in 2009, as the recession set in. Employment rebounded to 6,980, a five percent increase from 2009. Table 4-8 WAGE AND SALARY EMPLOYMENT; 2000-2010 Year Monticello Downtown* 2000 5,562 N/A 2001 5,825 N/A 2002 6,063 1,759 2003 5,945 1,678 2004 5,887 1,763 2005 6,315 1,505 2006 5,715 1,482 2007 7,112 1,474 2008 6,703 1,612 2009 6,639 2,206 2010 6,980 N/A N/A: Not Available. * Block groups 1002.03-3 and 1002.04-1. Source: Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development and U.S. Census Bureau. The U.S. Census Bureau compiles employment by census tract for the period 2002 to 2009. In 2002, employment in downtown was 1,759 and rose slightly to 1,763 in 2004. Employment declined to 1,474 in 2007 and then increased to 2,206 in 2009. This indicates that downtown appears to represent about one-third of Monticello's employment. The historic employment reported by the U.S. Census Bureau appears to understate downtown employment, since prior to 2009 it appears that Cargill and other employers were not included in employment count based on a review of downtown employment trends by two -digit NAICS code, which found wide swings of employment in individual categories. Census Bureau statistics are based on second quarter employment in each year and is based on the location where paychecks are issued, which 4-10 may not be the location where the worker is employed. Employment reported in 2009 appears to more accurately reflect downtown Monticello employment than statistics for prior years. Purchasing Power Retail sales potential for the Monticello trade area is based on estimated purchasing power and market share that can be achieved from the trade area. Retail sales from residents living outside the trade area are inflow sales. Purchasing power estimates of trade area residents are derived from retail sales by store type as reported by the Census of Retail Trade in 2002 and 2007. Retail sales for 2008 through 2010 were estimated using information available from the U.S. Department of Commerce. Future purchasing power estimates are expressed in constant 2010 dollars and reflect projected household growth. Purchasing power is based on the number of trade area households adjusted to reflect income characteristics. Purchasing power, for the purpose of this analysis, includes retail categories that are characteristic of tenants that could be located in Monticello. The estimated retail purchasing power summary table for the Monticello downtown trade area for 2010 and 2015 is shown in Table 4-9. The purchasing power estimates used in this analysis are condensed from the full purchasing power tables, which are contained in a separate Appendix. These estimates represent the potential dollar sales for a broad range of retail stores generated by residents of each trade area. Table 4-9 MONTICELLO DOWNTOWN TRADE AREA RETAIL PURCHASING POWER, 2010 AND 2015 (In Thousands of Constant 2010 Dollars) Merchandise Cateeo Shopping Goods Food Service & Drinking Convenience Goods Gasoline Service Stations & Convenience Other Stores Total Source: McComb Group, Ltd. 2010 2015 $ 342,219 $ 406,932 128,799 153,156 194,830 231,673 141,624 168,404 339,606 403,819 $1,147,078 $1,363,984 Total purchasing power for Monticello's downtown trade area was estimated at about $1.1 billion in 2010 and is expected to increase to $1.4 billion by 2015, an annual growth rate of 3.5 percent in constant 2010 dollars. Purchasing power for shopping goods in this trade area is expected to increase from $342.2 million in 2010 to $406.9 million in 2015. Convenience goods purchasing power for this trade area was estimated at $194.8 million in 2010, estimated to increase to $231.7 million by 2015. 4-11 Chapter 5 MONTICELLO RETAIL SALES AND MARKET SHARE Future sales potential is based on market share that can be achieved by Monticello retail stores and services taking into consideration trade area households, future growth, and potential competitive development. Market share estimates for Monticello are based on analysis conducted as part of this engagement, which included 2002 and 2007 retail and service sales in Monticello and McComb Group's knowledge of the Twin Cities retail market. Retail Sales Limited retail sales information is available for Monticello from the U.S. Census of Retail Trade for 2002 and 2007, the latest information available. The Retail Census reported data for 62 retailers in 2002 and 59 retailers in 2007, as shown in Table 5-1. Table 5-1 MONTICELLO RETAIL SALES AND SERVICE SALES: 2002 AND 2007 Sales ($ 1,000) and Establishments 2002 Category Est Sales RETAIL TRADE 62 $278,616 Convenience Retail Sales 02-07 Food & beverage stores 3 41,015 Food S ervice 39,092 * (1.0) % Food services & drinking places 21 14,453 Full service restaurants 9 5,786 Limited -service eating places 12 8,667 Convenience/Gasoline 10 23,291 Shopping Goods 1,705 Clothing & clothing accessories stores 2 D Furniture & home furnishings stores 4 1,483 Electronics & appliance stores 5 4,708 Miscellaneous store retailers 7 D Home Improvement Building material & garden equipment & supplies dealers 8 13,052 Other building material dealers 5 9,739 Motor Vehicles & Parts Motor vehicle & parts dealers 12 165,193 New car dealers 4 148,129 SERVICES Personal Services Hair, nail, & skin care services 4 D Personal care services 5 1,159 Personal & laundry services 8 2,288 Child day care services 4 1,177 Repair Services Repair & maintenance 7 2,767 Automotive body, paint, interior, and glass repair HEALTH CARE Health care & social assistance 32 52,308 Offices of dentists 4 3,313 "Minnesota sales taxrecords. D: Withheld to avoid disclosing data o f individual companies; data are included in higher level totals Source: U.S.Census and Minnesota Department ofRevenue. 5-1 11 196,039 * 3.5 % 8 1,426 9 D 11 2,272 (0.1) % 5 D 10 6,387 * 18.2 % 3 3,361 31 83,050 9.7 % 5 5,154 9.2 % Sales 2007 Change Est Sales 02-07 59 $387,448 6.8 % 3 39,092 * (1.0) % 30 23,341 10.1 % 10 8,986 9.2 % 20 14,355 10.6 % 8 44,143 13.6 % 4 1,705 3 1,605 * 1.6 % 4 5,238 2.2 % 7 3,380 8 34,187 21.2 % 11 196,039 * 3.5 % 8 1,426 9 D 11 2,272 (0.1) % 5 D 10 6,387 * 18.2 % 3 3,361 31 83,050 9.7 % 5 5,154 9.2 % Retail sales increased from $278.6 million in 2002 to $387.4 million in 2007, an annual growth rate of 6.8 percent. Sales of food service and drinking places increased from $14.5 million in 2002 to $23.3 million in 2007, an annual growth rate of 10.1 percent. The number of gasoline/convenience stores decreased from ten to eight; however sales increased significantly from $23.3 million in 2002 to $44.1 million in 2007, an annual growth rate of 13.6 percent. Retail sales were reported in both years for only two shopping goods categories: furniture and home furnishings stores and electronics and appliance stores. Retail sales for these categories increased modestly at annual rates of 1.6 percent and 2.2 percent, respectively. Building materials sales increased sharply from $13.1 million to $34.2 million with the opening of Home Depot. Motor vehicle and parts dealers sales increased at an annual rate of 3.5 percent. Health care and social assistance increased from $52.3 million in 2002 to $83.1 million in 2007, a growth rate of 9.7 percent. Dental office sales increased from $3.3 million to $5.2 million, recording an annual growth rate of 9.2 percent. Monticello's retail sales have increased at a healthy rate reflecting its growing importance as a retail center. Market Share Market share for Monticello retail and service establishments in 2007 is estimated in Table 5-2, which also contains Monticello retail and service sales for 2007. Purchasing power was calculated by McComb Group. Retail sales derived from Monticello's trade area were estimated for each retail category to determine trade area sales and market share as a percent of purchasing power. Food store sales were estimated at $35.3 million in 2007 with 85 percent from the trade area, resulting in $30.0 million from the trade area for a market share of 30.1 percent. Superstore (Walmart and Target) food sales from the grocery segment was estimated at $15.2 million with 65 percent being derived from the trade area. Liquor store market share was estimated at 20.6 percent with 90 percent of sales derived from the trade area. Gasoline/convenience stores retail sales were estimated at $44.1 million with 70 percent of the sales from the trade area. This results in trade area sales of $30.9 million, which is a market share of 25.4 percent of estimated purchasing power of $121.8 million. Inflow sales, about $13.2 million, are derived from shoppers living outside the trade area. Motor vehicle and parts dealer sales were estimated at about 50 percent or $98.0 million for a 48.8 percent market share. Market share in the services category ranged from 14.2 percent for hair, nail, and skin care services to 34.7 percent for auto body, paint, interior, and glass repair. Health care and social assistance trade area sales were estimated at $78.9 million, representing a 24.4 percent market share, and dentists achieved a 14.4 percent market share. 5-2 Table 5-2 MONTICELLO PURCHASING POWER, RETAIL SALES AND MARKET SHARE; 2007 (In Tho us ands of Do liars ) Business Type Convenience Food & beverage stores Food stores Superstore Capture Liquor stores Food S ervice Food services and drinking places Full service restaurants Limited -service eating places Purchasing Retail Trade Area Sales Market Power Sales Percent Dollars Share $116,131 $ 39,092 85% $33,228 28.61 % 99,679 35,323 * 85% 30,025 30.12 99,679 15,240 65% 9,906 9.94 16,452 3,769 90% 3,392 20.62 $110,808 $ 23,341 75% $17,506 15.80 % 45,775 8,986 65% 5,841 12.76 34,839 14,355 70% 10,049 28.84 Gasoline/Convenience Gasoline stations/convenience $121,839 $ 44,143 70% $30,900 25.36 % Shopping Goods Clothing & clothing accessories stores $ 41,230 $ 1,705 90% $ 1,535 3.72 % Miscellaneous store retailers 11,770 3,380 90% 3,042 25.85 Building Materials Building material & garden equipment & supplies dealers $108,449 $ 34,187 70% $23,931 22.07 % Motor Vehicles & Parts Motor vehicle & parts dealers $200,887 $196,039 * 50% $98,020 48.79 % New Car Dealers 154,204 175,787 50% 87,894 57.00 Services Personal & laundry services $ 12,035 $ 2,272 95% $ 2,158 17.93 % Hair, nail, & skin care services 9,553 1,426 95% 1,355 14.18 Repair & maintenance 27,158 6,387 95% 6,068 22.34 Automotive body, paint, interior, and glass repair 9,196 3,361 95% 3,193 34.72 Medical Health care & social assistance $324,020 $ 83,050 95% $78,898 24.35 % Offices ofdentists 34,127 5,154 95% 4,896 14.35 * Minnesota sales taxrecords. Source: U.S.Census and McComb Gmup,Ltd. Future retail and service sales potential for Monticello is based on market share that can be achieved taking into consideration past trends in Monticello, trade area households, future growth, and potential competitive developments. Market share estimates are based on analysis conducted as part of this engagement, McComb Group's knowledge of the Twin Cities area retail market, and assumptions contained in Table 5-3. Market share was estimated for each retail and service category taking into consideration past market share performance of Monticello retail stores, trade area size, competitive store locations, and industry experience. Using the convenience goods category for the downtown trade area as an example, market share is estimated at 20 to 40 percent with 85 to 90 percent of the sales derived from the trade area. Food service market share is estimated at 25 percent with 85 percent of the sales being derived from the trade area. Gasoline/convenience store market share is 25 percent with 70 percent of the sales from the trade area. In the shopping goods category, market share ranges from 20 to 25 percent with trade area sales of 85 percent. Building materials market share is 25 percent and auto parts is 15 percent with 85 percent of the sales being derived from the trade area. Market share for services is estimated at 45 percent with 85 percent of the sales derived from the trade area; and health care is estimated at 45 percent with 85 percent of the sales from the trade area. 5-3 Table 5-3 CITY OF MONTICELLO MARKET SHARE AND DOWNTOWN TRADE AREA SALES Source: McComb Group, Ltd. Sales Potential Estimated retail and service space demand is a two-step process. Sales potential for each retail or service category is estimated first to determine if retail sales are sufficient to support a store. Next, store size is determined based on sales productivity and typical store size for each category. This methodology is illustrated for 2015 in Tables 5-4 and 5-5. These tables use convenience goods stores as an example to illustrate how supportable square footage of retail stores and services is determined. Using grocery stores as an example, resident purchasing power in the downtown trade area in 2015 is estimated at $132.4 million, as shown in Table 5-4, with market share of 40 percent results in $53.0 million in trade area sales. Adding inflow sales of $9.3 million results in total estimated sales of about $62.3 million. About 25 percent of the grocery store potential is estimated to be transferred to SuperTarget and Walmart, leaving about $45.8 million of sales potential for supermarkets. SuperTarget, Walmart, and Kmart draw their sales from the discount store and supercenter categories where sales potential is $151.9 million. The combined categories adding sales transfer from supermarkets increases sales potential to about $167.4 million. Estimated sales potential is about $5.1 million for liquor stores and $16.0 million for 5-4 Market Trade Area Store Type Share Sales Convenience Goods Supermarkets 40 % 85 % Other Food Stores 20 85 Drug & Proprietary 25 90 Liquor 20 90 Hardware Stores 20 90 Other Convenience Stores 20 90 Food Service 25 % 85 % Gasoline/Convenience Stores 25 % 70 % Shopping Goods Apparel & Accessories 20 % 85 % Furniture & Home Furnishings 25 85 Electronics & Appliances Stores 25 85 Other Shopping Goods 25 85 Other Retail Stores Building Materials 25 % 85 % Auto Parts & Accessories 15 85 Services 45 % 85 % Health Care 45 % 85 % Source: McComb Group, Ltd. Sales Potential Estimated retail and service space demand is a two-step process. Sales potential for each retail or service category is estimated first to determine if retail sales are sufficient to support a store. Next, store size is determined based on sales productivity and typical store size for each category. This methodology is illustrated for 2015 in Tables 5-4 and 5-5. These tables use convenience goods stores as an example to illustrate how supportable square footage of retail stores and services is determined. Using grocery stores as an example, resident purchasing power in the downtown trade area in 2015 is estimated at $132.4 million, as shown in Table 5-4, with market share of 40 percent results in $53.0 million in trade area sales. Adding inflow sales of $9.3 million results in total estimated sales of about $62.3 million. About 25 percent of the grocery store potential is estimated to be transferred to SuperTarget and Walmart, leaving about $45.8 million of sales potential for supermarkets. SuperTarget, Walmart, and Kmart draw their sales from the discount store and supercenter categories where sales potential is $151.9 million. The combined categories adding sales transfer from supermarkets increases sales potential to about $167.4 million. Estimated sales potential is about $5.1 million for liquor stores and $16.0 million for 5-4 drug stores. The same approach is used for other retail and service categories. Sales potential for other retail stores and services is contained in the Appendix (under separate cover). Table 5-4 DOWNTOWN MONTICELLO RETAIL PURCHASING POWER, MARKET SHARE AND SALES POTENTIAL; 2015 BY MERCHANDISE CATEGORY (In Thousands of Dollars) Merchandise Category Grocery Stores Drug Stores Hardware Liquor Discount Stores Supercenters Source: McComb Group, Ltd. Resident Estimated Trade Trade Purchasing Market Area Area Power Share Sales Percent $ 132,422 40 % $ 52,969 85 57,651 25 14,413 90 8,828 20 1,766 90 22,739 20 4,548 90 61,981 75 46,486 65 69,631 75 52,223 65 Other Shoppers Estimated Total Sales % $ 9,347 $ 62,316 1,601 16,014 196 1,962 505 5,053 25,031 71,517 28,120 80,343 Supportable gross leasable area (GLA) for retail stores is estimated by dividing sales potential by sales per square foot productivity appropriate for each store. Supportable GLA for supermarkets is based on sales potential of $62.3 million divided by $500 per square foot, resulting in supportable square footage of 124,632 square feet, as shown in Table 5-5. Estimated sales transfer to the supercenter category reduces supportable square feet to about 100,000 square feet. This results in total supportable square feet of discount and supercenters to about 462,000 square feet. Drug and proprietary store supportable space is 34,813 square feet, which is about twice the size of the typical drug store indicating support for two stores. Table 5-5 DOWNTOWN MONTICELLO RETAIL SALES POTENTIAL AND SUPPORTABLE SPACE; 2015 BY MERCHANDISE CATEGORY Source: McComb Group, Ltd. The last column in this table contains low, median, and high store size for each store type from Dollars & Cents of Shopping Centers, published by the Urban Land Institute. Median store size indicates a typical size for a store in each retail category. To the extent that supportable square footage is above the low store size, sales potential exists to support that store type. Many 5-5 Estimated Sales Sales Supportable Store Size Merchandise Category Potential Per Sq. Ft. Square Feet Low Median High Grocery Stores $ 62,316,000 $ 500 124,632 31,676 52,500 65,888 Drug&Proprietary Stores 16,014,000 460 34,813 8,280 11,700 23,714 Hardware 1,962,000 185 10,605 5,638 13,831 27,743 Liquor 5,053,000 375 13,475 1,305 2,856 7,210 Discount Stores 71,517,000 275 260,062 57,720 94,788 141,986 Supercenters 80,343,000 450 178,540 90,134 151,980 217,447 Source: McComb Group, Ltd. The last column in this table contains low, median, and high store size for each store type from Dollars & Cents of Shopping Centers, published by the Urban Land Institute. Median store size indicates a typical size for a store in each retail category. To the extent that supportable square footage is above the low store size, sales potential exists to support that store type. Many 5-5 retailers will want to have stores that are closer to the median store size. Complete tables showing supportable square footage by retail and service category for each target year are contained in the Appendix. Retail GLA supported by estimated sales potential for each retail store category is based on estimated sales per square foot (in 2010 dollars) by store type. Sales per square foot estimates are derived from median store sales per square foot for each tenant type contained in Dollars & Cents of Shopping Centers, 2008. Supportable GLA is calculated by dividing sales potential by sales per square foot. This analysis was used to provide an estimate of the supportable square footage in each retail category. The detailed tables resulting from these calculations are contained in the Appendix. The results of this analysis are summarized in Chapter 6. 5-6 Chapter 6 MONTICELLO RETAIL POTENTIAL AND RECOMMENDATIONS Monticello is a thriving community that has become a sub -regional center for consumer, business, and medical services due to its high volume Mississippi River crossing. Factors that support additional retail development in Monticello include: ♦ Traffic counts on TH-25 at the entrances to downtown exceeded 34,000 trips per day in 2008 and are projected to exceed 47,000 trips at the river crossing in 2030. ♦ Downtown Monticello trade area population was estimated at 93,500 in 2010 and is projected to increase to about 104,300 in 2015, an annual average growth rate of 2.2 percent. ♦ Downtown trade area households are estimated at 32,931 in 2010 and are expected to increase to about 37,250 in 2015, a growth rate of 2.5 percent annually. ♦ Monticello's large anchor stores (Cub Foods, SuperTarget, Walmart Supercenter, and Home Depot) create a secondary trade area. The population of the combined downtown and secondary trade areas was 127,190 in 2010 and is estimated to increase to about 138,900 in 2015. ♦ Downtown trade area and secondary trade area households total 44,802 in 2010 and are projected to increase to about 49,125 in 2015. ♦ Average household income in the downtown trade area and secondary trade area were estimated at $80,066 and $83,046, respectively, in 2010. Average household income in the downtown trade area and secondary trade area are estimated to increase to $84,957 and $88,495, respectively, in 2015. ♦ More importantly are the 20,213 downtown and secondary trade area households with incomes above $75,000 in 2010. Households with incomes above $75,000 are expected to increase to about 24,700 in 2015, a 22 percent increase. ♦ Due to physical barriers created by the Mississippi River and I-94, about one-third of downtown and secondary trade area shoppers must pass through downtown Monticello to reach the shopping area south of 1-94. ♦ New River Medical Center, with 25 beds and 600 employees, and Monticello Clinic have established Monticello as a regional medical center. Monticello's many economic attributes, trade area population, and upper income households provide support for expanded retail stores, restaurants, and services. 6-1 Monticello Retail Potential Downtown Monticello is anchored by Cub Foods, Kmart, a recently opened Walgreens, and large community recreation center. Cub Foods and Kmart are located at the south end of Downtown and Walgreens is at the north end. Downtown has the largest concentration of shopping goods stores (25) as well as the largest concentration of restaurants (16). Estimated additional GLA by store type category that can be supported in downtown Monticello through 2020 is summarized in Table 6-1. A more detailed list of stores and supportable GLA is contained in Table 6-2 later in this chapter. Existing retail space in downtown Monticello is estimated at about 390,000 square feet. This includes Cub Foods and Kmart, as well as the estimated functional GLA of other individual stores and services in downtown. Table 6-1 DOWNTOWN MONTICELLO SUGGESTED SUPPORTABLE SPACE SUMMARY BY MERCHANDISE CATEGORY (Gross Leasable Area) Source: McComb Group, Ltd. 6-2 Future Additional Estimated Supportable Square Feet Merchandise Category Existing 2010 2015 2020 SHOPPING GOODS Discount Store 85,000 - - - Department Stores & Other General Merchandise Stores - 65,000 75,000 87,000 Other General Merchandise Stores 8,000 8,000 8,000 Apparel & Accessories - 12,000 24,000 30,000 Furniture & Home Furnishings 9,000 9,000 9,000 15,000 Electronics & Appliances Stores 4,000 12,000 12,000 12,000 Other Shop ping Goods 38,500 17,000 17,000 24,000 Total 136,500 123,000 145,000 176,000 CONVENIENCE GOODS Food Stores 71,000 20,000 45,000 45,000 Other Convenience Goods 30,700 18,000 19,300 24,800 Gasoline Service Stations/Convenience 6,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 Automotive Parts Dealers 13,000 - - - Total 120,700 43,000 69,300 74,800 FOOD SERVICE Food Service - Full Service 31,500 9,000 9,000 15,000 Food Service - Limited Service 27,000 3,000 3,000 6,000 Food Service - Snack & Beverage Places 1,500 4,000 4,000 6,000 Total 60,000 16,000 16,000 27,000 SERVICES Personal Care Services 12,800 2,000 4,000 8,000 Dry cleaning & Laundry Services 3,600 - - - Other Personal Services 9,100 5,000 7,500 7,500 Rental and Leasing - 1,500 1,800 2,200 Recreation 30,000 - 5,000 5,000 Total 55,500 8,500 18,300 22,700 HEALTH CARE 16,800 50,000 70,000 75,000 TOTAL 389,500 240,500 318,600 375,500 Source: McComb Group, Ltd. 6-2 Additional retail space that can be supported in downtown Monticello at the present time is estimated at 240,500 square feet of GLA, increasing to over 375,000 square feet in 2020. Supportable GLA is larger than downtown Monticello can accommodate based on physical planning. This is not a problem since it is unlikely that all the store types contained in this table would choose to locate in downtown Monticello; however, it does demonstrate the range of store types that can be considered. Shopping goods stores are found in larger concentrations and often involve comparison shopping. Shopping goods, including Kmart, are currently estimated to represent about 136,500 square feet of GLA. Supportable square footage of additional space is estimated at 123,000 square feet in 2010, 145,000 square feet in 2015, and 176,000 square feet in 2020. The largest single category is department stores where supportable square footage is about 65,000 square feet in 2010 increasing to 87,000 square feet in 2020. Additional supportable square footage is represented by apparel and accessories, furniture and home furnishings, electronics and appliance stores, and other shopping goods, which total an additional 50,000 square feet in 2010 increasing to an addition 81,000 square feet in 2020. Convenience goods represent merchandise categories that are typically purchased close to home. Existing convenience goods retailers are estimated to occupy about 120,700 square feet of GLA at the present time. This category includes supermarkets, other convenience goods stores, gasoline/convenience stores, and automotive parts dealers. Additional square footage supportable in this category is about 43,000 square feet at the present time increasing to 75,000 square feet in 2020. Included in the supportable space is a specialty grocery store of about 20,000 square feet and a drug store. Downtown existing food service establishments, estimated at 60,000 square feet, could be augmented by additional full service and limited service establishments and snack and beverage places. In total, about 16,000 square feet could be supported at the present time and an additional 27,000 square feet in 2020. Downtown Monticello has a wide variety of services at the present time, which limits future opportunities. Existing services total about 55,500 square feet including the community center. Additional supportable services space is estimated at 8,500 square feet in 2010 increasing to 22,700 square feet in 2020. Monticello medical needs are served by New River Medical Center and Monticello Clinic. Market research indicates that Monticello could support additional medical practices and downtown would offer a convenient location. A detailed list of stores and services that are supportable in downtown Monticello are contained in Table 6-2. In this table, supportable GLA includes both existing stores and new stores, so that the space occupied by existing stores needs to be taken into consideration. Store categories with an existing store show the estimated functional square feet of space. All store categories listed in Table 6-2 can accommodate more GLA taking into consideration existing stores. As indicated earlier, it is unlikely that all the store types contained in this table would choose to locate in downtown Monticello; however, it does demonstrate the range of store types that can consider downtown for a store. Table 6-2 also contains the range of store sizes in square feet of GLA from Dollars & Cents of Shopping Centers. The median store size is bracketed by high and low square feet. Low 6-3 represents the smallest store size that is likely to be economically viable. In most situations, stores of less than 1,000 square feet are not feasible unless sales per square foot are well above average. Table 6-2 DOWNTOWN MONTICELLO SUPPORTABLE SPACE; 2010, 2015 AND 2020 BY MERCHANDISE CATEGORY (Gross Leasable Area) Estimated Store Size Merchandise Category Existing 2010 2015 2020 Low Median High S HOPPING GOODS General Merchandise Department Stores 0 65,000 75,000 87,000 89,641 148,796 243,167 Dollar stores 8,000 8,000 8,000 2,726 8,000 13,788 Subtotal 0 73,000 83,000 95,000 Apparel & Accessories Clothing Stores Mens and boys 2,002 4,000 5,635 Womens clothing 7,500 10,000 12,000 2,074 4,200 8,740 Children's & infant 4,000 4,000 1,490 3,912 6,000 Family clothing 8,000 10,000 12,000 2,374 8,000 28,228 Clothing accessories stores 1,000 1,000 1,000 918 1,400 2,001 Shoe Stores Family shoe stores 4,000 4,000 8,000 2,021 3,388 10,234 Athletic footwear 3,000 3,000 3,000 1,535 3,284 11,314 Subtotal 0 23,500 32,000 40,000 Furniture & Home Furnishings Furniture 8,000 12,000 16,000 3,108 7,927 36,712 Floor coverings 8,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 1,229 3,593 7,819 Window treatment stores 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,489 4,905 9,934 All other home furnishings stores 7,000 7,000 9,000 Subtotal 9,000 24,000 30,000 38,000 Electronics & Appliances Stores Household appliance stores 5,000 7,000 8,000 2,349 4,000 7,563 Radio, tv & electronics stores 3,000 25,000 25,000 25,000 1,208 3,406 10,451 Computers, software, music, & other electronics 1,000 3,000 3,000 4,000 997 3,388 25,600 Subtotal 4,000 33,000 35,000 37,000 Other Shopping Goods Sporting goods 2,238 7,500 44,116 General Line Sporting Gds. 2,500 8,000 8,000 12,000 3,765 5,850 28,128 Specialty Line Sporting Gds. 2,500 10,000 10,000 12,000 1,097 2,449 4,356 Musical Instrument & Supplies 3,000 3,000 4,000 2,432 7,324 26,094 Jewelry stores 5,000 7,500 9,000 10,000 790 1,450 3,410 Hobby, toy & game 5,000 5,000 7,500 1,604 4,050 25,861 Gift, novelty & souvenirs 4,500 9,000 9,000 12,000 2,369 4,422 7,015 Sewing needlework & piece goods 5,000 5,000 7,500 2,678 12,202 19,299 Pet stores 3,000 3,000 3,000 1,847 3,200 12,398 Optical goods stores 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 885 1,561 4,068 Cosmetics, beauty supplies & perfume 2,000 2,000 2,000 1,102 1,953 6,235 Subtotal 18,500 56,500 58,000 74,000 6-5 Table 6-2 (continued) DOWNTOWN MONTICELLO SUPPORTABLE SPACE; 2010, 2015 AND 2020 BY MERCHANDISE CATEGORY (Gross Leasable Area) Estimated Store Size Merchandise Category Existing 2010 2015 2020 Low Median High CONVENIENCE GOODS Food Stores Grocery stores Supermarkets 67,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 31,245 52,419 69,462 Convenience food 1,500 1,500 2,000 2,500 1,349 2,085 5,323 Specialty food stores 2,500 4,000 5,000 6,000 1,188 2,400 6,000 Subtotal 71,000 105,500 127,000 148,500 Other Convenience Goods Drug & proprietary stores 14,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 8,280 11,700 23,714 Hardware 10,000 10,000 10,000 12,500 5,638 13,831 27,743 Liquor 5,500 5,500 6,500 7,500 1,305 2,856 7,210 Florist 2,000 2,000 4,000 766 1,600 5,396 Food/health supplement stores 1,200 1,200 1,500 1,500 1,200 1,234 1,968 Subtotal 30,700 48,700 50,000 55,500 Food S ervice Full-service restaurants 31,500 55,000 65,000 75,000 2,000 4,500 9,775 Limited service restaurants 27,000 35,000 40,000 50,000 1,335 3,000 3,400 Snack & beverage places 850 1,500 2,495 Ice Cream & Soft Serve 1,200 1,400 1,600 902 1,148 1,570 Doughnut ShopsBagel 2,500 3,000 3,500 744 1,200 2,153 Coffee Shops 1,500 2,800 3,200 4,000 881 1,500 2,000 Other Snack Shops 1,500 1,500 2,000 850 1,578 2,495 Subtotal 60,000 98,000 114,100 136,100 Gasoline Svs Stations/Conv. Gas/Convenience food stores 6,000 32,000 36,000 42,000 1,500 2,933 6,121 Subtotal 6,000 32,000 36,000 42,000 OTHER RETAIL STORES Motor Vehicles & Parts Dealers Auto parts & accessories stores 13,000 8,500 10,000 12,000 2,232 6,500 13,000 Tire dealers 6,500 7,500 9,000 3,514 6,944 12,014 Subtotal 13,000 15,000 17,500 21,000 Source: McComb Group, Ltd. 6-5 Table 6-2 (continued) DOWNTOWN MONTICELLO SUPPORTABLE SPACE; 2010, 2015 AND 2020 BY SERVICES CATEGORY (Gross Leasable Area) 1 • Estimatd Store Size Category Existing 2010 2015 2020 Low Median High Personal Care Services Beauty Shops/Barber 10,000 12,000 14,000 17,000 900 1,400 3,480 Nail Salons 2,100 1,500 1,800 2,200 773 1,200 1,807 Diet & Weight Reducing Services 1,500 1,223 1,856 3,130 Other Personal Care Services 700 1,500 2,000 2,500 703 1,488 4,128 Subtotal 7800 15,000 17,800 23,200 Other Personal Services Child Day Care Services 5,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 3,059 5,050 7,495 Photographic Studios 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 990 1,866 2,550 Veteranarian Services 2,100 4,500 4,500 4,500 1,346 2,122 2,701 Pet Care 1,200 1,200 2,400 1,200 Subtotal 9,100 32,700 37,700 43,900 Rental and Leasing Formalwear and Costume Rental 350 350 400 763 1,046 1,773 Home Health Equipment Rental 1,200 1,500 1,800 1,200 1,600 3,480 Subtotal 0 1,550 1,850 2,200 Recreation Physical Fitness Facilites 30,000 30,000 35,000 45,000 1,433 6,448 32,170 Subtotal 30,000 30,000 35,000 45,000 Health Care Offices of Physicians (except mental health specialists) 3,200 55,000 65,000 75,000 969 1,652 4,008 Offices of Physicians, Mental Health Specialists 1,500 1,800 2,200 969 1,800 4,008 Offices of Dentists 5,100 8,000 10,000 12,000 1,090 1,700 3,970 Offices of Chiropractors 6,500 8,000 10,500 13,000 1,090 1,600 3,970 Offices of Optometrists 1,500 2,000 2,500 1,074 1,620 4,347 Offices of Mental Health Practitioners (except physicians) 2,000 2,000 4,000 1,090 1,800 3,970 Physical & Occupational Therapists 4,000 5,000 5,000 1,090 1,600 3,970 Offices of Podiatrists 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 1,090 1,800 3,970 Offices of All Other Misc. Health Practitioners 2,000 2,000 2,500 1,090 1,800 3,970 Outpatient Care Centers 10,000 12,500 15,000 Subtotal 167800 94,000 112,800 133,200 source: McComb Group, Ltd. 1 • Appendices DOWNTOWN MONTICELLO MARKET ANALYSIS AND RETAIL SALES POTENTIAL Prepared for City of Monticello August 2011 ❑❑❑ MCCOMB GROUPLtd. ❑N❑ R E A L L•' S T A T E A N D 000 RETAIL C❑ N S U LTA N T S Appendices DOWNTOWN MONTICELLO MARKET ANALYSIS AND RETAIL SALES POTENTIAL Prepared for City of Monticello Prepared by McComb Group, Ltd. August 2011 ©Copyright 2011 McComb Group, Ltd. Appendix A MONTICELLO RETAIL AREAS TENANT MIX Downtown A-1 East of Downtown A-2 South of I-94 A-3 CONVENIENCE GOODS Food Stores Supermarket Cub Foods Specialty Food Stores Convenience Market Chapitos Latino Supermarket & Deli Other Convenience Goods Drugstore/Pharmacy Walgreens Hardware Grady's Ace Hardware Liquor/Wine Hi -Way Liquors FOOD SERVICE Full Service Restaurant With Liquor Beef O'Brady's Guadalajara Mexican Restaurant Rancho Grande Authentic Mexican Food The Station Bar & Grill Restaurant Without Liquor Cornerstone Cafe Monticello Corner Cafe Perkins Limited Service Chicken/Turkey Fast Food KFC Hamburgers Burger King Mexican Fast Food Taco Bell Pizza $5 Pizza Domino's Pizza Papa Murphy's Pizza Factory Pizza Man Sandwich Shop Quizno's Sub Snacks and Beverage Places Coffee/Tea Caribou Coffee Drinking Places Cocktain Lounge/Bar Liquors/Bar CONVENIENCE/GAS Convenience/Gasoline Holiday Kwik Stop Service Station Red's Service Table A-1 MONTICELLO - DOWNTOWN RETAIL TENANT MIX SHOPPING GOODS General Merchandise Discount Department Store Big Kmart Home Furnishings Floor Coverings Monticello Carpets Curtains and Drapes Kustom Blinds & Draperies Beds/Mattresses Sweet Dreams Sleep Centers Home Appliance/Music Appliances Monticello Vacuum Center Audio/Video Electronic store w/Stargate, Satellite Dish Network, DirectTV Electronics - General Radio Shack Computer/Software Computer Brainz IT Solutions Other Shopping Goods Sporting Goods - General Soccer Store Bike Shop Broadway Cycle (coming soon) Jewelry Classique Jewelry Cards and Gifts Hallmark Gold Crown Eyeglasses - Optician Eye Clinic Monticello Optical Center Select Eye Care Uptown Eye Care - Dr. Elaine Happ and Dr. Mary Gregory Antiques Antique store Antiques Pre -Owned All 4 Kids Drawers of Davlee Finders Keepers Gift & Consignments Flea Market Second Chance Thrift Store Used Furniture and More Collectibles Manny's Comics & Cards BUILDING MATERIALS/GARDEN Other Home Improvement DJ's Fireplace Table A-1 (continued) MONTICELLO - DOWNTOWN RETAIL TENANT MIX MOTOR VEHICLES AND PARTS Auto Parts Auto Value Parts Store NAPA Auto Parts SERVICES Personal Care Men's Barber Bob's Barber Shop Walnut Street Barbers Unisex Hair Great Clips Women's Hair Salon Going in Style Jade Patrick Salon Mild to Wild Salon & Spa Platinum Look Salon Nail Salon Brand New Nails & Alterations PS Nails Tanning Salon Fit To Be Me Sunlife Tanning Dry Cleaning/Laundry Dry Cleaner Cleaners Laundry Maytag Laundry Personal Services Film Processing Photo One Photocopy/Fast Print Monticello Printing Photographer David's Photography, Inc. Travel Agent Bursch Travel/American Express Travel Service Travel Leaders Massage Body Rhythms Healing Ground Marina's Massage & Permanent Cosmetics Other Services Crisis Pregnancy Center Monticello Hearing Center Funeral Peterson Grimso Funeral Chapel Recreation/Entertainment Health Club Health It Up (coming soon) SERVICES (continued) Automotive Services Auto Repair Service Fred's Auto Repair Skool Customs Auto Glass Shop RAS Glass Other Services Learning Center/College Swan River Montissory Charter School Music Studio/Dance Barbara Lee's Studio of Dance Lodging Americl m Motel Fraternal VFW Club Armed Forces Recruiting National Guard Recruiting Office Other Service Computer Repair Wreckless Driving Academy Financial Bank/Savings & Loan First Minnesota Bank US Bank Wells Fargo Bank Finance Company & Mortgage GSF Mortgage Investment Advice Ameriprise Financial (2) Edward Jones Investments (2) Prime America Financial Services Insurance DW Carlson Agency Farmers Insurance Foster Carlson & White Agency State Farm Insurance — Dan Olson Agent TNT Insurance Real Estate Assist 2 Sell Bullseye Properties Real Estate Office Preferred Title Wright Sherburne Realty Tax Preparation H & R Block Liberty Tax Services Hill's Tax Service Table A-1 (continued) MONTICELLO - DOWNTOWN RETAIL TENANT MIX SERVICES (continued) SERVICES (continued) Offices (Other Than Financial) Community Legal Post Office Agosto Law Office Post Office Conroy Law Office U.S. Post Office Metcaf Larson & Muth Law Office City Office Smith Paulson O'Donnell City Hall Accounting Monticello Help Center Lillehaug, CPA Motor Vehicle Department Schlenner Wenner & Co. House of Worship Employment Agency Alive Action Plus Temporary Services on Broadway Social Services Other Office Families United Bauer Construction Library Central Minnesota Custom Homes Public Library Century Distributing Community Center Cleary Building Corp. Monticello Community Center Dairy Today Chamber of Commerce Earth Right Chamber of Commerce FiberNet Monticello Lanner Custom Homes VACANT Monticello Times & Shopper Twenty -Four Preferred Exteriors of Minnesota Taylor Land Surveyors, Inc. TDS Telcom Tollefson Counseling Services Medical Physicians Office Foot Clinic Mid Minnesota Neurology Clinic Dental Lakeland Family Dental Monticello Family Dentistry Buffalo Dental Center Chiropractor Chiropractor Monticello Chiropractic & Therapy Studer Chiropractic Whole Health Family Chiropractic Belde Chiropractor Table A-2 MONTICELLO - EAST OF DOWNTOWN RETAIL TENANT MIX CONVENIENCE GOODS BUILDING MATERIALS/GARDEN Specialty Food Stores Home Improvements Meat, Poultry and Fish Home Depot Von Hanson's Meats Other Convenience Goods SERVICES Health Food/Nutrition/Diet Personal Care GNC Unisex Hair Fantastic Sam's FOOD SERVICE Women's Hair Salon Full Service Exhilaration Salon & Spa Aveda Restaurant With Liquor Automotive Services Hawk's Sports Bar & Grill Auto Repair Service Limited Service Dennis' Automobile Repair Shop Hamburgers Car Wash McDonalds Care Free Car Wash Pizza Financial Little Caesar's Bank/Savings & Loan Snacks and Beverage Places Liberty Savings Bank & Insurance Coffee/Tea Riverwood Bank Caribou Coffee Insurance American Family Insurance CONVENIENCE/GAS Medical Convenience/Gasoline Physicians Office Cruiser's New River Medical Center O'Ryan's Marathon Monticello Clinic SHOPPING GOODS VACANT General Merchandise Four Superstore SuperTarget Home Appliance/Music Telephone Store/Telecom Store Verizon Wireless Other Shopping Goods Sporting Goods - General AST Sports Office Supplies Office Max Pet Shop PetSmart Table A-3 MONTICELLO - SOUTH OF I-94 RETAIL TENANT MIX FOOD SERVICE BUILDING MATERIALS/GARDEN Full Service Paint and Wallpaper Restaurant With Liquor Hirshfield's Paint Applebee's Neighborhood Grill & Bar Specialty Hardware Bluestone Grill Fastenol Buffalo Wild Wings Other Home Improvement Chatter's Restaurant & Bar The Plumbery Showroom Limited Service Chinese Fast Food MOTOR VEHICLES AND PARTS Chin Yuen Automobile Showroom China Buffet Honda Dealership Hamburgers Gould Chevrolet Culver's Metro West Auto Dealership Pontiac GMC McDonalds Auto Parts Ice Cream Parlor O'Reilly Auto Parts Dairy Queen Grill & Chill Tire Dealers Mexican Fast Food Goodyear Tire Taco John's Royal Tire Pizza Used Car Dealers Primo Pizza West Metro Used Car Lot Sandwich Shop Recreational Vehicles & Boats Subway Moon Motor Sports Steak/Roast Beef Arby's SERVICES Personal Care CONVENIENCE/GAS Unisex Hair Convenience/Gasoline Great Clips Holiday Women's Hair Salon Kwik Trip Salon 25 SuperAmerica Salon Tuscan Nail Salon SHOPPING GOODS Fancy Nails General Merchandise Tanning Salon Superstore Totally Tan Walmart Supercenter Tattoo Parlor Home Furnishings Tattoo store Floor Coverings Personal Services AE Michaels Flooring Showroom Rental Shop Home Appliance/Music General Rental Center Telephone Store/Telecom Store Daycare/Nursery Sprint Authorized Retailer Playhouse Child Care Center Verizon Wireless Rental/Leasing Other Shopping Goods Video Rental Jewelry Movie Gallery Loch Jewelers Recreation/Entertainment Tobacco Cinema - General Smoke Shop Monticello 15 Theatre Other Retail Health Club Monticello Bait & Tackle Anytime Fitness Gold's Gym Bowling Alley River City Extreme SERVICES (continued) Automotive Services Auto Repair Service Monticello Automotive Body Shop Auto Body Repair Gould Brothers Body Shop Steeles Collision Quick Lube Jiffy Lube Other Services Martial Arts DoJo Karate Lodging Best Western Chelsea Inn & Suites Days Inn Super 8 Motel Armed Forces Recruiting Air Force Career Center Other Service Olson & Sons Electric Financial Bank/Savings & Loan Premier Banks Pawn Shop Monticello Pawn & Gun Finance Company & Mortgage Marketplace Home Mortgage Investment Advice Thrivent Financial Insurance Monticello Agency Real Estate Edina Realty Prairie's Edge Real Estate Tri County Abstract & Guarantee Title Tax Preparation Tax Service Table A-3 (continued) MONTICELLO - SOUTH OF I-94 RETAIL TENANT MIX SERVICES (continued) Offices (Other Than Financial) Legal Zachman Merrill PA Attorneys at Law Veterinary Monticello -Big Lake Pet Hospital Other Office LCMB Brokerage Inc. Medical Dental MDS Children's Dentistry, Oral & Facial Surgery, Orthodontics South Side Dental Center Chiropractor Monticello Physical Therapy Back To Health Other Car/Truck Rental Enterprise VACANT Nine Appendix B DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS Table B-1 Monticello Downtown and Secondary Trade Areas and Minneapolis -St. Paul MSA; Population and Households: 1990 and 2000 Census; 2010 and 2015 Estimated Table B-2 Monticello Downtown and Secondary Trade Areas and Minneapolis -St. Paul MSA; Average and Median Household Incomes: 1990 and 2000 Census; 2010 and 2015 Estimated Table B-3 Monticello Downtown and Secondary Trade Areas and Minneapolis -St. Paul MSA; Household Income: 1990 and 2000 Census; 2010 and 2015 Estimated Table B-4 Monticello Downtown and Secondary Trade Areas and Minneapolis -St. Paul MSA; Households, Families and Household Size: 1990 and 2000 Census; 2010 and 2015 Estimated Table B-5 Monticello Downtown and Secondary Trade Areas and Minneapolis -St. Paul MSA; Educational Attainment: 1990 and 2000 Census; 2010 and 2015 Estimated Table B-6 Monticello Downtown and Secondary Trade Areas and Minneapolis -St. Paul MSA; Gender and Marital Status: 1990 and 2000 Census; 2010 and 2015 Estimated Table B-7 Monticello Downtown and Secondary Trade Areas and Minneapolis -St. Paul MSA; Age Distribution: 1990 and 2000 Census; 2010 and 2015 Estimated Table B-8 Monticello Downtown and Secondary Trade Areas and Minneapolis -St. Paul MSA; Ethnicity: 1990 and 2000 Census; 2010 and 2015 Estimated Table 13-1 MONTICELLO DOWNTOWN AND SECONDARY TRADE AREAS AND MINNEAPOLIS -ST. PAUL MSA POPULATION AND HOUSEHOLDS: 1990 AND 2000 CENSUS; 2010 AND 2015 ESTIMATED Trade Area / Year DOWNTOWN TRADE AREA 1990 2000 2010 E 2015 E SECONDARY TRADE AREA 1990 2000 2010 E 2015 E MINNEAPOLIS -ST. PAUL MSA Population Households 26,233 Rate of 33,690 Rate of Number Change Number Change 43,171 N/A 14,307 N/A 65,264 4.22 % 22,368 4.57 % 93,500 3.66 32,931 3.94 104,277 2.21 37,258 2.50 19,416 N/A 26,233 3.05 % 33,690 2.53 34,634 0.55 1990 2,542,631 2000 2,968,806 2010 E 3,302,532 2015 E 3,465,615 N/A: Not Available. E: Estimated. Source: U.S. Census, Scan/US and McComb Group, Ltd. N/A 1.56 % 1.07 0.97 6,505 9,114 11,871 11,866 961,627 1,136,615 1,265,491 1,294,127 N/A 3.43 % 2.68 (0.01) N/A 1.69 % 1.08 0.45 Table B-2 MONTICELLO DOWNTOWN AND SECONDARY TRADE AREAS AND MINNEAPOLIS -ST. PAUL MSA AVERAGE AND MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOMES 1990 AND 2000 CENSUS; 2010 AND 2015 ESTIMATED Income Type / Year Average Household Income 1990 2000 2010 E 2015 E Median Household Income 1990 2000 2010 E 2015 E E: Estimated. Downtown Secondary Minneapolis - Trade Trade St. Paul Area Area MSA $ 39,037 $ 38,087 $ 43,703 64,631 67,377 67,713 80,066 83,046 86,856 84,957 88,495 93,497 $ 34,861 $ 33,951 $ 37,631 56,060 55,547 54,734 69,448 68,680 65,421 74,290 73,295 69,896 Source: U.S. Census, Scan/US and McComb Group, Ltd. Table B-3 MONTICELLO DOWNTOWN AND SECONDARY TRADE AREAS AND MINNEAPOLIS -ST. PAUL MSA HOUSEHOLD INCOME: 1990 AND 2000 CENSUS; 2010 AND 2015 ESTIMATED 1990 2000 2010 E 2015 E Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent DOWNTOWN TRADE AREA 22,368 Households 14,307 Average Size 2.99 Household Income N/A Median $ 34,861 Average $ 39,037 Households Above $50,000 3,487 Households Above $75,000 873 Income Distribution $ 69,448 Less than $15,000 2,208 $15,000 - $24,999 2,219 $25,000 - $34,999 2,648 $35,000 - $49,999 3,598 $50,000 - $74,999 2,614 $75,000 - $99,999 552 $100,000 - $149,999 222 $150,000+ 99 SECONDARY TRADE AREA 6.2 Households 6,505 Average Size 2.96 Household Income 50.4 Median $ 33,951 Average $ 38,087 Households Above $50,000 1,479 Households Above $75,000 398 Income Distribution 7.4 Less than $15,000 1,082 $15,000 - $24,999 1,071 $25,000 - $34,999 1,191 $35,000 - $49,999 1,555 $50,000 - $74,999 1,081 $75,000 - $99,999 282 $100,000 - $149,999 84 $150,000+ 33 MINNEAPOLIS -ST. PAUL MSA 11.8 Households 961,627 Average Size 2.59 Household Income 8,386 Median $ 37,631 Average $ 43,703 Households Above $50,000 296,835 Households Above $75,000 107,842 Income Distribution 2,037 Less than $15,000 158,760 $15,000 - $24,999 145,590 $25,000 - $34,999 151,645 $35,000 - $49,999 206,924 $50,000 - $74,999 188,993 $75,000 - $99,999 59,873 $100,000 - $149,999 30,705 $150,000+ 17,264 N/A: Not Available or Not Applicable. 11,866 E: Estimated. N/A Source: U.S. Census, Scan/US and McComb Group, Ltd. N/A 22,368 N/A 32,931 N/A 37,258 N/A N/A 2.89 N/A 2.82 N/A 2.93 N/A N/A $ 56,060 N/A $ 69,448 N/A $ 74,290 N/A N/A $ 64,631 N/A $ 80,066 N/A $ 84,957 N/A 24.6 % 12,829 57.5 % 22,903 69.6 % 27,156 72.9 % 6.2 6,222 27.9 14,864 45.2 18,771 50.4 15.6 % 1,437 6.4 % 1,553 4.7 % 1,574 4.2 % 15.7 1,662 7.4 1,665 5.1 1,692 4.5 18.7 2,388 10.7 2,430 7.4 2,434 6.5 25.4 4,013 18.0 4,349 13.2 4,401 11.8 18.5 6,607 29.6 8,039 24.4 8,386 22.5 3.9 3,636 16.3 6,733 20.5 8,118 21.8 1.6 2,037 9.1 6,290 19.1 8,351 22.4 0.7 549 2.5 1,841 5.6 2,301 6.2 N/A 9,114 N/A 11,871 N/A 11,866 N/A N/A 2.85 N/A 2.81 N/A 2.89 N/A N/A $ 55,547 N/A $ 68,680 N/A $ 73,295 N/A N/A $ 67,377 N/A $ 83,046 N/A $ 88,495 N/A 23.2 % 5,208 57.3 % 8,268 69.9 % 8,654 73.2 % 6.2 2,509 27.6 5,349 45.2 5,914 50.0 17.0 % 693 7.6 % 690 5.8 % 636 5.4 % 16.8 727 8.0 621 5.3 550 4.6 18.7 817 9.0 725 6.1 641 5.4 24.4 1,646 18.1 1,529 12.9 1,348 11.4 16.9 2,699 29.7 2,919 24.7 2,740 23.2 4.4 1,520 16.7 2,520 21.3 2,659 22.5 1.3 734 8.1 2,105 17.8 2,425 20.5 0.5 255 2.8 724 6.1 830 7.0 N/A 1,136,615 N/A 1,265,491 N/A 1,294,127 N/A N/A 2.56 N/A 2.56 N/A 2.62 N/A N/A $ 54,734 N/A $ 65,421 N/A $ 69,896 N/A N/A $ 67,713 N/A $ 86,856 N/A $ 93,497 N/A 30.9 % 623,000 54.8 % 799,649 63.2 % 848,353 65.6 % 11.2 357,670 31.5 548,648 43.4 605,975 46.8 16.5 % 104,519 9.2 % 108,610 8.6 % 108,837 8.4 % 15.2 104,638 9.2 91,791 7.3 87,497 6.8 15.8 125,123 11.0 102,729 8.1 94,583 7.3 21.6 179,335 15.8 162,712 12.9 154,857 12.0 19.7 265,330 23.3 251,001 19.8 242,378 18.7 6.2 165,629 14.6 198,538 15.7 207,168 16.0 3.2 124,954 11.0 212,552 16.8 240,128 18.6 1.8 67,087 5.9 137,558 10.9 158,679 12.3 Table B-4 MONTICELLO DOWNTOWN AND SECONDARY TRADE AREAS AND MINNEAPOLIS -ST. PAUL MSA HOUSEHOLDS, FAMILIES AND HOUSEHOLD SIZE; 1990 AND 2000 CENSUS; 2010 AND 2015 ESTIMATED 1990 2000 2010 E 2015 E Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent DOWNTOWN TRADE AREA Households 14,307 Families 11,355 As Percent of Households Household Size 1 Person N/A 2 Persons N/A 3-4 Persons N/A 5+ Persons N/A Average Household Size 2.99 SECONDARY TRADE AREA % Households 6,505 Families 5,257 As Percent of Households % Household Size 74.4 % 1 Person N/A 2 Persons N/A 3-4 Persons N/A 5 + Persons N/A Average Household Size 2.96 MINNEAPOLIS -ST. PAUL MSA Households 961,627 Families 649,907 As Percent of Households Household Size 29.0 1 Person N/A 2 Persons N/A 3-4 Persons N/A 5 + Persons N/A Average Household Size 2.59 N/A: Not Available or Not Applicable. E: Estimated. 13.2 Source: U.S. Census, Scan/US and McComb Group, Ltd. 22,368 32,931 37,258 17,325 24,813 27,726 79.4 % 77.5 % 75.3 % 74.4 % N/A % 3,811 17.1 % 5,946 18.1 % 6,922 18.6 % N/A 7,124 31.9 10,717 32.6 10,825 29.0 N/A 8,450 37.8 11,976 36.4 13,883 37.3 N/A 2,959 13.2 4,270 13.0 5,639 15.1 2.89 2.82 2.93 9,114 11,871 11,866 7,153 8,958 8,784 80.8 % 78.5 % 75.5 % 74.0 % N/A % 1,528 16.8 % 2,183 18.4 % 2,316 19.5 % N/A 3,198 35.1 4,018 33.8 3,615 30.5 N/A 3,217 35.3 4,090 34.5 4,163 35.1 N/A 1,160 12.7 1,564 13.2 1,749 14.7 2.85 2.81 2.89 1,136,615 1,265,491 1,294,127 744,303 813,402 822,812 67.6 % 65.5 % 64.3 % 63.6 % N/A % 303,050 26.7 % 363,378 28.7 % 385,640 29.8 % N/A 370,926 32.6 383,645 30.3 352,477 27.2 N/A 348,717 30.7 385,127 30.4 401,722 31.0 N/A 113,922 10.0 133,341 10.5 154,288 11.9 2.56 2.56 2.62 Table B-5 MONTICELLO DOWNTOWN AND SECONDARY TRADE AREAS AND MINNEAPOLIS -ST. PAUL MSA EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT: 1990 AND 2000 CENSUS; 2010 AND 2015 ESTIMATED 1990 2000 2010 E 2015 E Attainment Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent DOWNTOWN TRADE AREA No College 10,815 52.6 % 13,457 38.7 % 18,654 34.2 % 19,642 32.5 % Some College/2 yr. Degree 6,439 31.3 14,075 40.5 21,641 39.7 23,856 39.5 College Graduate 2,499 12.2 5,508 15.8 11,086 20.4 13,340 22.1 Graduate School 790 3.8 1,738 5.0 3,089 5.7 3,627 6.0 SECONDARY TRADE AREA No College 5,329 56.5 % 6,134 43.0 % 7,814 38.3 % 7,772 36.5 % Some College/2 yr. Degree 2,800 29.7 5,479 38.4 7,900 38.7 8,283 38.9 College Graduate 985 10.4 1,986 13.9 3,579 17.5 4,035 19.0 Graduate School 320 3.4 676 4.7 1,125 5.5 1,196 5.6 MINNEAPOLIS -ST. PAUL MSA No College 494,213 35.2 % 482,956 28.0 % 534,038 26.2 % 546,018 25.2 % Some College/2 yr. Degree 475,234 33.9 606,761 35.2 675,032 33.1 696,082 32.1 College Graduate 309,463 22.1 440,355 25.6 560,783 27.5 614,610 28.4 Graduate School 123,146 8.8 192,417 11.2 270,749 13.3 308,645 14.3 N/A: Not Available or Not Applicable. E: Estimated. Source: U.S. Census, Scan/US and McComb Group, Ltd. Table B-6 MONTICELLO DOWNTOWN AND SECONDARY TRADE AREAS AND MINNEAPOLIS -ST. PAUL MSA GENDER AND MARITAL STATUS: 1990 AND 2000 CENSUS; 2010 AND 2015 ESTIMATED 1990 Ethnicity Number Percent DOWNTOWN TRADE AREA Gender Male 21,611 Female 21,559 Marital Status 2,037 Single 10,524 Single With Children N/A Married 20,148 SECONDARY TRADE AREA Gender Male 9,900 Female 9,516 Marital Status Single 4,478 Single With Children N/A Married 9,641 MINNEAPOLIS -ST. PAUL MSA Gender Male 1,243,912 Female 1,298,719 Marital Status Single 880,727 Single With Children N/A Married 1,085,734 N/A: Not Available or Not Applicable. E: Estimated. Source: U.S. Census, Scan/US and McComb Group, Ltd. 2000 2010E 2015 E Number Percent Number Percent Number Pcrccnt 50.1 % 32,804 49.9 32,463 34.3 % 669 N/A 2,037 65.7 14,852 51.0 % 13,516 49.0 12,717 31.7 % 251 N/A 573 68.3 6,202 48.9 % 1,466,277 51.1 1,502,529 44.8 % 49,124 N/A 102,044 55.2 593,135 50.3 % 47,179 49.7 46,320 3.8 % 893 11.6 3,490 84.6 20,418 51.5 % 17,354 48.5 16,336 3.6 % 286 8.2 879 88.3 7,795 49.4 % 1,640,881 50.6 1,661,651 6.6 % 54,692 13.7 124,860 79.7 633,850 50.5 % 52,717 49.5 51,561 3.6 % 1,027 14.1 4,229 82.3 22,470 51.5 % 17,844 48.5 16,790 3.2 % 276 9.8 963 87.0 7,549 49.7 % 1,724,794 50.3 1,740,821 6.7 % 55,764 15.4 133,077 77.9 633,971 50.6 % 49.4 3.7 % 15.3 81.0 51.5 % 48.5 3.1 % 11.0 85.9 49.8 % 50.2 6.8 % 16.2 77.0 Table B-7 MONTICELLO DOWNTOWN AND SECONDARY TRADE AREAS AND MINNEAPOLIS -ST. PAUL MSA AGE DISTRIBUTION: 1990 AND 2000 CENSUS; 2010 AND 2015 ESTIMATED 1990 2000 2010 E 2015 E Age Distribution Number DOWNTOWN TRADE AREA Percent Under 5 4,161 5 - 9 4,401 10-14 3,906 15-19 3,130 20-24 2,667 25-34 8,252 35-44 6,665 45-54 3,982 55-64 2,481 65-74 1,861 75+ 1,676 25-64 21,379 65 and Over 3,537 SECONDARY TRADE AREA Under 5 1,608 5 - 9 1,871 10-14 1,767 15-19 1,425 20-24 952 25-34 3,237 35-44 3,124 45-54 2,037 55-64 1,421 65-74 1,199 75 + 781 25-64 9,819 65 and Over 1,979 MINNEAPOLIS -ST. PAUL MSA 3,367 Under 5 206,374 5 - 9 197,835 10-14 171,935 15-19 162,011 20-24 193,055 25-34 511,549 35-44 415,664 45-54 253,035 55-64 180,490 65-74 139,086 75 + 111,458 25-64 1,360,738 65 and Over 250,544 E: Estimated. 9.2 Source: U.S. Census, Scan/US and McComb Group, Ltd. Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent 9.6 % 6,009 9.2 % 9,016 9.6 % 9,856 9.5% 10.2 5,940 9.1 7,800 8.3 8,871 8.5 9.0 6,049 9.3 7,332 7.8 8,060 7.7 7.2 4,985 7.6 6,468 6.9 7,520 7.2 6.2 3,367 5.2 5,447 5.8 6,910 6.6 19.1 10,707 16.4 13,972 14.9 13,206 12.7 15.4 12,112 18.6 14,085 15.1 14,036 13.5 9.2 7,587 11.6 13,220 14.1 14,509 13.9 5.7 4,111 6.3 8,475 9.1 11,097 10.6 4.3 2,323 3.6 4,723 5.1 6,413 6.1 3.9 2,041 3.1 2,950 3.2 3,798 3.6 49.5 % 34,516 52.9 % 49,751 53.2 % 52,848 50.7% 8.2 4,364 6.7 7,673 8.2 10,211 9.8 8.3 % 2,028 7.7 % 2,700 8.0 % 2,836 8.2% 9.6 2,332 8.9 2,664 7.9 2,803 8.1 9.1 2,401 9.2 2,592 7.7 2,549 7.4 7.3 2,091 8.0 2,365 7.0 2,421 7.0 4.9 1,065 4.1 1,525 4.5 1,685 4.9 16.7 3,482 13.3 4,053 12.0 3,810 11.0 16.1 5,133 19.6 5,286 15.7 4,793 13.8 10.5 3,564 13.6 5,506 16.4 5,344 15.4 7.3 2,133 8.1 3,862 11.5 4,539 13.1 6.2 1,175 4.5 2,102 6.2 2,641 7.6 4.0 796 3.0 1,016 3.0 1,194 3.4 50.6 % 14,312 54.6 % 18,706 55.6 % 18,486 53.4% 10.2 1,971 7.5 3,118 9.3 3,835 11.1 8.1 % 212,810 7.2 % 246,278 7.5 % 267,740 7.7% 7.8 225,355 7.6 224,744 6.8 245,635 7.1 6.8 225,652 7.6 216,023 6.5 225,974 6.5 6.4 209,863 7.1 216,523 6.6 217,235 6.3 7.6 193,790 6.5 213,967 6.5 217,012 6.3 20.1 457,105 15.4 477,084 14.4 449,885 13.0 16.3 528,024 17.8 460,322 13.9 468,964 13.5 10.0 405,724 13.7 500,413 15.2 479,512 13.8 7.1 225,540 7.6 380,864 11.5 449,369 13.0 5.5 145,808 4.9 202,665 6.1 268,995 7.8 4.4 139,135 4.7 163,649 5.0 175,294 5.1 53.5 % 1,616,393 54.4 % 1,818,683 55.1 % 1,847,730 53.3 9.9 284,943 9.6 366,314 11.1 444,289 12.8 Table B-8 MONTICELLO DOWNTOWN AND SECONDARY TRADE AREAS AND MINNEAPOLIS -ST. PAUL MSA ETHNICITY: 1990 AND 2000 CENSUS; 2010 AND 2015 ESTIMATED 1990 2000 2010 E 2015 E Ethnicity Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent DOWNTOWN TRADE AREA Caucasian 42,748 99.0 % 63,914 97.9 % 88,992 95.2 % 99,016 95.0 % African-American 43 0.1 134 0.2 1,018 1.1 1,387 1.3 Native American 133 0.3 193 0.3 368 0.4 452 0.4 Asian/Pacific Islander 188 0.4 275 0.4 1,133 1.2 1,220 1.2 Other 58 0.1 747 1.1 1,989 2.1 2,203 2.1 Hispanic (any race) 191 0.4% 726 1.1 % 2,119 2.3 % 2,709 2.6 % SECONDARY TRADE AREA Caucasian 19,238 99.1 % 25,766 98.2 % 32,376 96.1 % 33,290 96.1 % African-American 31 0.2 74 0.3 373 1.1 446 1.3 Native American 68 0.3 83 0.3 132 0.4 146 0.4 Asian/Pacific Islander 63 0.3 72 0.3 263 0.8 272 0.8 Other 17 0.1 239 0.9 546 1.6 481 1.4 Hispanic (any race) 50 0.3 % 238 0.9 % 570 1.7 % 647 1.9 % MINNEAPOLIS -ST. PAUL MSA Caucasian 2,347,622 92.3 % 2,556,851 86.1 % 2,757,948 83.5 % 2,868,321 82.8 % African-American 90,071 3.5 157,963 5.3 221,450 6.7 244,745 7.1 Native American 24,267 1.0 21,590 0.7 27,918 0.8 29,791 0.9 Asian/Pacific Islander 65,618 2.6 124,025 4.2 174,656 5.3 198,521 5.7 Other 15,053 0.6 108,377 3.7 120,560 3.7 124,237 3.6 Hispanic (any race) 37,942 1.5 % 99,121 3.3 % 166,016 5.0 % 195,788 5.6 % E: Estimated. Source: U.S. Census, Scan/CIS and McComb Group, Ltd. Appendix C RETAIL AND SERVICES PURCHASING POWER Downtown Monticello Trade Area Retail C-1 Downtown Monticello Trade Area Services C-2 Table C-1 MONTICELLO DOWNTOWN TRADE AREA RETAIL PURCHASING POWER, 2010 TO 2030 (In Thousands of Dollars) Merchandise Category 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 General Merchandise $ 161,534 $ 192,080 $ 225,635 $ 262,472 $ 303,838 Department stores (Incl. leased depts.) 82,229 97,779 114,860 133,612 154,670 Discount stores 61,981 73,702 86,577 100,712 116,584 Department Stores 20,248 24,077 28,283 32,900 38,086 Other general merchandise stores 79,305 94,301 110,775 128,860 149,168 Warehouse Clubs & Supercenters 69,631 82,797 97,262 113,141 130,972 Variety stores 2,925 3,478 4,085 4,752 5,501 Miscellaneous general mdse. 6,749 8,026 9,428 10,967 12,695 Apparel and accessories $ 47,923 $ 56,985 $ 66,941 $ 77,870 $ 90,143 Furniture & home furnishings 33,071 39,326 46,196 53,737 62,207 Electronics & appliance 34,984 41,599 48,867 56,845 65,804 Other shopping goods 64,707 76,942 90,385 105,141 121,713 Total Shopping Goods $ 342,219 $ 406,932 $ 478,024 $ 556,065 $ 643,705 Food Service & Drinking $ 128,799 $ 153,156 $ 179,910 $ 209,284 $ 242,267 Convenience Goods $ 194,830 $ 231,673 $ 272,145 $ 316,574 $ 366,470 Food stores 115,863 137,773 161,842 188,263 217,935 Drug & proprietary stores 48,483 57,651 67,722 78,778 91,194 Hardware stores 7,424 8,828 10,370 12,063 13,965 Beer, wine & liquor stores 19,123 22,739 26,712 31,073 35,970 Florists 2,812 3,344 3,928 4,569 5,290 Health supplement stores 1,125 1,338 1,571 1,828 2,116 Gasoline Service Stations & Conv. $ 141,624 $ 168,404 $ 197,824 $ 230,120 $ 266,389 Other Stores $ 339,606 $ 403,819 $ 474,370 $ 551,812 $ 638,781 Building materials & supply stores 105,065 124,931 146,758 170,717 197,623 Lawn & garden equipment 13,049 15,516 18,227 21,202 24,544 Used merchandise stores 2,700 3,210 3,771 4,387 5,078 Motor vehicles & parts dealers 218,792 260,162 305,614 355,506 411,536 Total $ 1,147,078 $ 1,363,984 $ 1,602,273 $ 1,863,855 $ 2,157,612 NA: Not Available. Source: McComb Group, Ltd. Table C-1 (continued) MONTICELLO DOWNTOWN TRADE AREA RETAIL PURCHASING POWER, 2010 TO 2030 (In Thousands of Dollars) Merchandise Category 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Shopping Goods General Merchandise Department stores (Incl. leased depts.) $ 82,229 $ 97,779 $ 114,860 $ 133,612 $ 154,670 Discount stores 61,981 73,702 86,577 100,712 116,584 Department Stores 20,248 24,077 28,283 32,900 38,086 Other general merchandise stores 79,305 94,301 110,775 128,860 149,168 Warehouse Clubs and Supercenters 69,631 82,797 97,262 113,141 130,972 Variety stores 2,925 3,478 4,085 4,752 5,501 Miscellaneous general mdse. 6,749 8,026 9,428 10,967 12,695 Subtotal $ 161,534 $ 192,080 $ 225,635 $ 262,472 $ 303,838 Apparel and accessories $ 47,923 $ 56,985 $ 66,941 $ 77,870 $ 90,143 Furniture & home furnishings 33,071 39,326 46,196 53,737 62,207 Electronics & appliance 34,984 41,599 48,867 56,845 65,804 Other shopping goods 64,707 76,942 90,385 105,141 121,713 Total Shopping Goods $ 342,219 $ 406,932 $ 478,024 $ 556,065 $ 643,705 Food Service & Drinldng Places Food Service $ 122,275 $ 145,398 $ 170,797 $ 198,683 $ 229,995 Drinking Places 6,524 7,758 9,113 10,601 12,272 Convenience Goods Food stores $ 115,863 $ 137,773 $ 161,842 $ 188,263 $ 217,935 Drug & proprietary stores 48,483 57,651 67,722 78,778 91,194 Liquor stores 19,123 22,739 26,712 31,073 35,970 Hardware 7,424 8,828 10,370 12,063 13,965 Florists 2,812 3,344 3,928 4,569 5,290 Health supplement stores 1,125 1,338 1,571 10,967 12,695 Subtotal $ 193,705 $ 230,335 $ 270,574 $ 314,746 $ 364,354 TOTAL $ 664,723 $ 790,423 $ 928,508 $ 1,080,095 $ 1,250,326 Table C-1 (continued) MONTICELLO DOWNTOWN TRADE AREA RETAIL PURCHASING POWER, 2010 TO 2030 (In Thousands of Dollars) Merchandise Category 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 CONVENIENCE GOODS Food Stores $ 115,863 $ 137,773 $ 161,842 $ 188,263 $ 217,935 Grocery stores 111,364 132,422 155,557 180,952 209,471 Supermarkets 109,114 129,747 152,414 177,296 205,239 Convenience Stores 2,250 2,675 3,143 3,656 4,232 Specialty food stores 3,937 4,682 5,499 6,397 7,406 Meat Markets 1,462 1,739 2,043 2,376 2,751 Fish & Seafood Markets 450 535 629 731 846 Fruit & Vegetable Markets 787 936 1,100 1,279 1,481 Other Specialty Food Stores 1,237 1,471 1,728 2,011 2,327 Baked Goods 337 401 471 548 635 Confectionery and Nut Stores 337 401 471 548 635 All Other Specialty Food Stores 562 669 786 914 1,058 Other Convenience Goods $ 78,967 $ 93,900 $ 110,303 $ 128,311 S 148,535 Drug 48,483 57,651 67,722 78,778 91,194 Hardware 7,424 8,828 10,370 12,063 13,965 Liquor 19,123 22,739 26,712 31,073 35,970 Florist 2,812 3,344 3,928 4,569 5,290 Food/health supplement stores 1,125 1,338 1,571 1,828 2,116 Total Convenience Goods $ 194,830 $ 231,673 $ 272,145 $ 316,574 $ 366,470 Food Service & Drinldng Places $ 128,799 $ 153,156 $ 179,910 $ 209,284 $ 242,267 Food Service 131,274 156,100 183,367 213,306 246,922 Full-service restaurants 53,207 63,268 74,321 86,455 100,081 Limited service restaurants 40,496 48,154 56,566 65,801 76,171 Cafeterias 1,687 2,006 2,357 2,742 3,174 Snack & beverage places 8,999 10,702 12,570 14,623 16,927 Ice Cream & Soft Serve 1,125 1,338 1,571 1,828 2,116 Frozen Yogurt 112 134 157 183 212 Doughnut Shops 1,575 1,873 2,200 2,559 2,962 Bagel Shops 450 535 629 731 846 Coffee Shops 3,825 4,548 5,342 6,215 7,194 Cookie Shops 112 134 157 183 212 Other Snack Shops 1,800 2,140 2,514 2,924 3,385 Specialized food places 17,886 21,268 24,983 29,062 33,642 Drinldng Places $ 6,524 $ 7,758 $ 9,113 $ 10,601 $ 12,272 Gasoline Svs Stations/Conv. $ 141,624 $ 168,404 $ 197,824 $ 230,120 $ 266,389 Gas/Convenience food stores 127,338 151,416 177,869 206,907 239,517 Other Gas Stations & Truck Stops 14,286 16,988 19,955 23,213 26,872 Table C-1 (continued) MONTICELLO DOWNTOWN TRADE AREA RETAIL PURCHASING POWER, 2010 TO 2030 (In Thousands of Dollars) Merchandise Category 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 SHOPPING GOODS General Merchandise $ 161,534 $ 192,080 $ 225,635 $ 262,472 $ 303,838 Department stores (Incl. leased depts.) 82,229 97,779 114,860 133,612 154,670 Discount stores 61,981 73,702 86,577 100,712 116,584 Conventional 20,248 24,077 28,283 32,900 38,086 Other general merchandise stores 79,305 94,301 110,775 128,860 149,168 Warehouse clubs and Supercenters 69,631 82,797 97,262 113,141 130,972 Variety stores 2,925 3,478 4,085 4,752 5,501 Miscellaneous general mdse. 6,749 8,026 9,428 10,967 12,695 Apparel & Accessories $ 47,923 $ 56,985 $ 66,941 $ 77,870 $ 90,143 Clothing Stores 40,721 48,421 56,880 66,166 76,595 Mens and boys 2,025 2,408 2,828 3,290 3,809 Women clothing 8,999 10,701 12,570 14,622 16,927 Children's & infant 4,162 4,949 5,814 6,763 7,829 Family clothing 20,923 24,879 29,226 33,997 39,355 Clothing accessories stores 1,237 1,471 1,728 2,011 2,327 Other clothing stores 3,375 4,013 4,714 5,483 6,348 Shoe Stores 7,202 8,564 10,061 11,704 13,548 Men's 244 290 341 397 459 Women's 434 516 607 706 817 Children's & infant 112 134 157 183 212 Family shoe stores 4,500 5,350 6,285 7,311 8,463 Athletic footwear 1,912 2,274 2,671 3,107 3,597 Furniture & Home Furnishings $ 33,071 $ 39,326 $ 46,196 $ 53,737 $ 62,207 Furniture 17,773 21,134 24,826 28,879 33,431 Home furnishings stores 15,298 18,192 21,370 24,858 28,776 Floor coverings 6,749 8,026 9,428 10,967 12,695 Window treatment stores 675 803 943 1,097 1,270 All other home furnishings stores 7,874 9,363 10,999 12,795 14,811 Electronics & Appliances Stores $ 34,984 $ 41,599 $ 48,867 $ 56,845 $ 65,804 Appliance, tv and other electronics 28,235 33,573 39,439 45,878 53,109 Household appliance stores 5,512 6,554 7,699 8,956 10,368 Radio, tv & electronics stores 22,723 27,019 31,740 36,922 42,741 Computers, Software, Music, & other electronics 6,749 8,026 9,428 10,967 12,695 Other Shopping Goods $ 63,582 $ 75,604 $ 88,814 $ 103,313 $ 119,597 Sporting goods 14,848 17,656 20,741 24,127 27,930 General Line Sporting Gds. 6,074 7,223 8,485 9,870 11,426 Specialty Line Sporting Gds. 8,774 10,433 12,256 14,257 16,504 Book stores & newsdealers 4,162 4,949 5,813 6,763 7,829 Stationery Stores and Office Supply 5,512 6,554 7,699 8,956 10,368 Musical Instrument & Supplies 2,475 2,943 3,457 4,021 4,655 Jewelry stores 8,437 10,032 11,785 13,708 15,869 Hobby, toy & game 4,050 4,815 5,657 6,580 7,617 Camera & photographic supply 1,687 2,006 2,357 2,742 3,174 Gift, novelty & souvenirs 4,612 5,484 6,442 7,494 8,675 Luggage & leather goods 562 669 786 914 1,058 Sewing, needlework & piece goods 2,137 2,541 2,985 3,473 4,020 Pet stores 4,050 4,815 5,657 6,580 7,617 Art dealers 675 803 943 1,097 1,270 Optical goods stores 3,375 4,013 4,714 5,483 6,348 Pre -Recorded Tapes, Compact Discs 642 764 897 1,044 1,208 Cosmetics, beauty supplies & perfume 2,758 3,280 3,853 4,482 5,188 All other health & personal care 3,600 4,280 5,028 5,849 6,771 Total Shopping Goods $ 341,094 $ 405,594 $ 476,453 $ 554,237 $ 641,589 Table C-1 (continued) MONTICELLO DOWNTOWN TRADE AREA RETAIL PURCHASING POWER, 2010 TO 2030 (In Thousands of Dollars) Merchandise Category OTHER RETAIL STORES Building Materials & Garden Supplies Building materials & supplies stores Home centers Paint, glass & wallpaper Other building materials dealers Lawn & garden equipment Outdoor power equipment Retail nurseries, lawn & garden Used Merchandise Stores Motor Vehicles & Parts Dealers Automotive dealers New and used car dealers Used car dealers Misc. auto dealers Boat dealers Recreational vehicle dealers Motorcycle dealers Automotive dealers, nec Auto parts, accessories & tires Auto parts & accessories stores Tire dealers Total Other Retail Stores 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 $ 118,114 $ 140,447 $ 164,985 $ 191,919 $ 222,167 105,065 124,931 146,758 170,717 197,623 30,822 36,650 43,053 50,082 57,975 4,162 4,949 5,814 6,763 7,829 70,081 83,332 97,891 113,872 131,819 13,049 15,516 18,227 21,202 24,544 2,475 2,943 3,457 4,021 4,655 10,574 12,573 14,770 17,181 19,889 $ 2,700 $ 3,210 $ 3,771 $ 4,387 $ 5,078 $ 218,792 $ 260,162 $ 305,614 $ 355,506 $ 411,536 180,995 215,220 252,819 294,092 340,444 167,946 199,704 234,592 272,890 315,900 13,049 15,516 18,227 21,202 24,544 20,811 24,745 29,069 33,814 39,143 6,637 7,892 9,271 10,784 12,484 4,500 5,350 6,285 7,311 8,463 7,312 8,694 10,213 11,881 13,753 2,362 2,809 3,300 3,838 4,443 16,986 20,197 23,726 27,600 31,949 9,674 11,503 13,513 15,719 18,196 7,312 8,694 10,213 11,881 13,753 Table C-2 MONTICELLO DOWNTOWN TRADE AREA SERVICES PURCHASING POWER, 2010 TO 2030 (In Thousands of Dollars) Services Category PERSONAL SERVICES Personal Care Services Hair, Nail & Skin Care Services Barber Shops Beauty Shops Nail Salons Other Personal Care Services Diet & Weight Reducing Services Other Personal Care Services Drycleaning & Laundry Services Coin -Operated Laundries & Drycleaners Drycleaning & Laundry Services (except coin -op.) Other Personal Services Child Day Care Services Funeral Homes & Funeral Services Photographic Services Photographic Studios Veteranarian Services Pet Care RENTAL AND LEASING Formalwear & Costume Rental Video Tape and Disk Rental Home Health Equipment Rental RECREATION Bowling centers Physical fitness facilites Golf courses and country clubs PROFESSIONAL SERVICES Offices of Real Estate Agents & Brokers Insurance Agencies Offices of Lawyers Tax Preparation Services Interior Design Source: McComb Group, Ltd. 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 $ 64,035 $ 78,048 $ 93,973 $ 112,047 $ 132,943 13,257 16,157 19,454 23,196 27,522 11,134 13,570 16,339 19,482 23,115 62 76 92 109 130 10,301 12,556 15,118 18,025 21,387 749 913 1,099 1,311 1,555 2,144 2,613 3,146 3,751 4,450 666 812 977 1,165 1,383 1,478 1,801 2,168 2,585 3,068 $ 6,784 $ 8,269 $ 9,956 $ 11,871 $ 14,085 687 837 1,008 1,202 1,426 2,206 2,689 3,237 3,860 4,580 $ 43,994 $ 53,622 $ 64,563 $ 76,980 $ 91,336 9,948 12,124 14,598 17,406 20,652 2,664 3,247 3,909 4,661 5,530 21,061 25,669 30,907 36,851 43,724 1,998 2,435 2,932 3,496 4,148 7,471 9,106 10,964 13,073 15,511 853 1,040 1,252 1,493 1,771 $ 2,955 $ 3,602 $ 4,336 $ 5,171 $ 6,135 395 482 580 692 821 2,560 3,120 3,756 4,479 5,314 936 1,141 1,374 1,639 1,944 $ 17,960 $ 21,890 $ 26,356 $ 31,426 $ 37,286 1,915 2,334 2,810 3,350 3,975 9,136 11,135 13,407 15,986 18,967 6,909 8,421 10,139 12,090 14,344 $ 159,099 $ 193,915 $ 233,483 $ 278,389 $ 330,305 25,244 30,768 37,046 44,171 52,408 48,947 59,658 71,831 85,647 101,619 80,663 98,315 118,375 141,142 167,464 1,602 1,953 2,352 2,804 3,327 2,643 3,221 3,879 4,625 5,487 Table C-2 (continued) MONTICELLO TRADE AREA SERVICES PURCHASING POWER, 2010 TO 2030 (In Thousands of Dollars) Services Category 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 REPAIR SERVICES $ 31,653 $ 38,580 $ 46,452 $ 55,386 $ 65,715 General Automotive Repair 14,963 18,237 21,959 26,182 31,065 Automotive Exhaust System Repair 208 254 305 364 432 Automotive Transmission Repair 791 964 1,161 1,384 1,642 Brake, Front Fnd & Wheel Alignment 187 228 275 328 389 Electrical Repair Shops, Motor Vehicle 83 101 122 146 173 Paint or Body Repair Shops 8,949 10,907 13,132 15,658 18,578 Automotive Glass Replacement 1,769 2,156 2,596 3,095 3,672 Automotive Oil Change &Lubrication Shops 1,540 1,877 2,260 2,695 3,197 Carwashes 1,915 2,334 2,810 3,350 3,975 Personal & Household GoodsRepair &Maint. $ 2,164 $ 2,638 $ 3,176 $ 3,787 $ 4,493 Home & Garden Equipment & Appliance Repair &Maint. 770 939 1,130 1,347 1,599 Home & Garden Equipment Repair & Maint. 208 254 305 364 432 Appliance Repair & Maint. 541 659 794 947 1,123 Reupholstery & Furniture Repair 437 533 641 765 907 Footwear & Leather Goods Repair 83 101 122 146 173 Watch, Clock & Jewelry Repair 104 127 153 182 216 Garment Repair & Alteration Services 271 330 397 473 562 Source: McComb Group, Ltd. Table C-2 (continued) MONTICELLO TRADE AREA SERVICES PURCHASING POWER, 2010 TO 2030 (In Thousands of Dollars) Services Category 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 HEALTH CARE $ 156,893 $ 191,227 $ 230,245 $ 274,528 $ 325,725 Offices of Physicians 89,965 109,653 132,027 157,420 186,776 Offices of Physicians (except mental health specialists) 89,133 108,638 130,805 155,963 185,048 Offices of Physicians, mental health specialists 812 989 1,191 1,420 1,685 Offices of Dentists 39,790 48,498 58,394 69,624 82,608 Offices of Other Health Practitioners 19,229 23,437 28,219 33,647 39,922 Offices of Chiropractors 5,744 7,001 8,429 10,050 11,925 Offices of Optometrists 2,622 3,196 3,848 4,588 5,444 Offices of Mental Health Practitioners (except physicians) 2,955 3,602 4,337 5,171 6,135 Offices of Physical, Occup, & Speech Therapists & Audiologists 5,265 6,417 7,727 9,213 10,931 Speech Therapist & Audiologists 312 380 458 546 648 Physical & Occupational Therapists 4,953 6,037 7,269 8,667 10,283 Offices of All Other Health Practitioners 2,643 3,221 3,879 4,625 5,487 Offices of Podiatrists 479 583 702 838 994 Offices of All Other Misc. Health Practitioners 2,164 2,638 3,176 3,787 4,493 Outpatient Care Centers $ 55,669 $ 67,851 $ 81,696 $ 97,409 $ 1159574 Outpatient Mental Health & Substance Abuse Centers 3,975 4,845 5,833 6,955 8,252 Other Outpatient Care Centers 50,903 62,043 74,702 89,070 105,680 Kidney Dialysis Centers 4,016 4,895 5,894 7,028 8,339 All Other Outpatient Care Centers 7,679 9,360 11,269 13,437 15,943 Home Health Care Services 17,023 20,749 24,982 29,787 35,342 Subtotal - Health Care $ 212,562 $ 259,078 $ 311,941 $ 371,937 $ 441,299 Source: McComb Group, Ltd. Appendix D RETAIL AND SERVICES PURCHASING POWER, MARKET SHARE AND SALES POTENTIAL Monticello Trade Area Retail D-1 Monticello Trade Area Services D-2 Table D-1 MONTICELLO RETAIL PURCHASING POWER, MARKET SHARE AND SALES POTENTIAL, 2010 BY MERCHANDISE CATEGORY (In Thousands of Dollars) Merchandise Category SHOPPING GOODS General Merchandise Department stores (Incl. leased depts.) Discount stores Department Stores Other general merchandise stores Warehouse Club & Supercenters Variety stores Miscellaneous general mdse. Apparel & Accessories Clothing Stores Mens and boys Womens clothing Children's & infant Family clothing Clothing accessories stores Other clothing stores Shoe Stores Men's Women's Children's & infant Family shoe stores Athletic footwear Furniture & Home Furnishings Furniture Floor coverings Window treatment stores All other home furnishings stores Electronics & Appliances Stores Household appliance stores Radio, tv & electronics stores Computers, Software, Music, & other electronics Other Shopping Goods Sporting goods General Line Sporting Gds. Specialty Line Sporting Gds. Book stores & newsdealers Stationery Stores and Office Supply Musical Instrument & Supplies Jewelry stores Hobby, toy & game Camera & photographic supply Gift, novelty & souvenirs Luggage & leather goods Sewing, needlework & piece goods Pet stores Art dealers Optical goods stores Pre -Recorded Tapes, Compact Discs Cosmetics, beauty supplies & perfume All other health & personal care Resident Estimated Trade Trade Estimated Purchasing Market Area Area Other Total $ 61,981 75.0 % $46,486 65 % $25,031 $ 71,517 20,248 45.0 9,112 65 4,906 25.0 14,018 $ 69,631 90.0 % $ 62,668 65 % $ 33,744 $ 96,412 2,925 25.0 731 85 129 25.0 860 6,749 25.0 1,687 85 298 1,181 1,985 $ 2,025 20.0 % $ 405 85 % $ 71 $ 476 8,999 20.0 1,800 85 318 2,118 4,162 20.0 832 85 147 979 20,923 20.0 4,185 85 739 4,924 1,237 20.0 247 85 44 291 3,375 20.0 675 85 119 794 $ 244 20.0 % $ 49 85 % $ 9 $ 58 434 20.0 87 85 15 102 112 20.0 22 85 4 26 4,500 20.0 900 85 159 1,059 1,912 20.0 382 85 67 449 $ 17,773 6,749 675 7,874 $ 5,512 22,723 6,749 $ 14,848 6,074 8,774 4,162 5,512 2,475 8,437 4,050 1,687 4,612 562 2,137 4,050 675 3,375 642 2,758 4,725 25.0 % $ 4,443 25.0 1,687 25.0 169 25.0 1,969 25.0 % $ 1,378 25.0 5,681 25.0 1,687 25.0 % $ 3,712 25.0 1,519 25.0 2,194 25.0 1,041 25.0 1,378 25.0 619 25.0 2,109 25.0 1,013 25.0 422 25.0 1,153 25.0 141 25.0 534 25.0 1,013 25.0 169 25.0 844 25.0 161 25.0 690 25.0 1,181 85 % $ 784 $ 5,227 85 298 1,985 85 30 199 85 347 2,316 85 % $ 243 $ 1,621 85 1,003 6,684 85 298 1,985 85 % $ 655 85 268 85 387 85 184 85 243 85 109 85 372 85 179 85 74 85 203 85 25 85 94 85 179 85 30 85 149 85 28 85 122 85 208 $ 4,367 1,787 2,581 1,225 1,621 728 2,481 1,192 496 1,356 166 628 1,192 199 993 189 812 1,389 Table D-1 (continued) MONTICELLO RETAIL PURCHASING POWER, MARKET SHARE AND SALES POTENTIAL, 2010 BY MERCHANDISE CATEGORY (In Thousands of Dollars) Merchandise Category CONVENIENCE GOODS Food Stores Grocery stores Supermarkets Convenience food Specialty food stores Meat Markets Fish & Seafood Markets Fruit & Vegetable Markets Other Specialty Food Stores Baked Goods Confectionery and Nut Stores All Other Specialty Food Stores Other Convenience Goods Drug & proprietary stores Hardware Liquor Florist Food/health supplement stores Food Service & Drinking Places Food Service Full-service restaurants Limited service restaurants Cafeterias Snack & beverage places Ice Cream & Soft Serve Frozen Yogurt Doughnut Shops Bagel Shops Coffee Shops Cookie Shops Other Snack Shops Specialized food places Drinking Places Gasoline Svs Stations/Conv. Gas/Convenience food stores Other Gas Stations & Truck Stops OTHER RETAIL STORES Building Materials & Garden Supplies Building materials & supplies stores Home centers Paint, glass & wallpaper Other building materials dealers Lawn & garden equipment Outdoor power equipment Retail nurseries, lawn & garden Motor Vehicles & Parts Dealers Auto parts, accessories & tires Auto parts & accessories stores Tire dealers Source: McComb Group, Ltd. Resident Estimated Trade Trade Purchasing Market Area Area Other Power Share Sales Percent Shoppers $ 111,364 109,114 2,250 3,937 1,462 450 787 1,237 337 337 562 $ 48,483 7,424 19,123 2,812 1,125 $ 53,207 40,496 1,687 8,999 1,125 112 1,575 450 3,825 112 1,800 17,886 $ 6,524 $ 127,338 14,286 $ 30,822 4,162 70,081 $ 2,475 10,574 40.0 % $ 44,546 40.0 43,646 20.0 450 20.0 787 20.0 292 20.0 90 20.0 157 20.0 247 20.0 67 20.0 67 20.0 112 25.0 % $ 12,121 20.0 1,485 20.0 3,825 20.0 562 25.0 281 25.0 % $ 13,302 25.0 10,124 0.0 0 25.0 2,250 25.0 281 25.0 28 25.0 394 25.0 113 25.0 956 25.0 28 25.0 450 25.0 4,472 00.0 % $ - 25.0 % $ 31,835 25.0 3,572 25.0 % $ 7,706 35.0 1,457 25.0 17,520 35.0 % $ 866 35.0 3,701 $ 9,674 15.0 % $ 1,451 7,312 15.0 1,097 85 % $ 7,861 85 7,702 85 79 85 139 85 52 85 16 85 28 85 44 85 12 85 12 85 20 90 % $ 1,347 90 165 90 425 90 62 90 31 65 % $ 7,163 70 4,339 85 0 85 397 85 50 85 5 85 70 85 20 85 169 85 5 85 79 85 789 75 % $ Estimated Total Sales $ 52,407 51,348 529 926 344 106 185 291 79 79 132 $ 13,468 1,650 4,250 624 312 $ 20,465 14,463 0 2,647 331 33 464 133 1,125 33 529 5,261 70 % $13,644 $ 45,479 70 1,531 5,103 65 % $ 4,149 $ 11,855 90 162 1,619 85 3,092 20,612 85 % $ 153 $ 1,019 85 653 4,354 85 % $ 256 $ 1,707 85 194 1,291 Table D-1 (continued) MONTICELLO RETAIL PURCHASING POWER, MARKET SHARE AND SALES POTENTIAL, 2015 BY MERCHANDISE CATEGORY (In Thousands of Dollars) Resident Estimated Trade Trade Estimated Purchasing Market Area Area Other Total Merchandise Category Power Share Sales Percent Shoppers Sales SHOPPING GOODS General Merchandise Department stores (Incl. ]eased depts.) Discount stores $ 73,702 75.0 % $ 55,277 65 % $29,765 $ 85,042 Department Stores 24,077 45.0 10,835 65 5,834 16,669 Other general merchandise stores Warehouse Clubs and Supercenters $ 82,797 90.0 % $ 74,517 65 % $40,125 $114,642 Variety stores 3,478 25.0 870 85 154 1,024 Miscellaneous general mdse. 8,026 25.0 2,007 85 354 2,361 Apparel & Accessories Clothing Stores Mens and boys $ 2,408 20.0 % $ 482 85 % $ 85 $ 567 Womens clothing 10,701 20.0 2,140 85 378 2,518 Children's & infant 4,949 20.0 990 85 175 1,165 Family clothing 24,879 20.0 4,976 85 878 5,854 Clothing accessories stores 1,471 20.0 294 85 52 346 Other clothing stores 4,013 20.0 803 85 142 945 Shoe Stores Men's $ 290 20.0 % $ 58 85 % $ 10 $ 68 Women's 516 20.0 103 85 18 121 Children's & infant 134 20.0 27 85 5 32 Family shoe stores 5,350 20.0 1,070 85 189 1,259 Athletic footwear 2,274 20.0 455 85 80 535 Furniture & Home Furnishings Furniture $ 21,134 25.0 % $ 5,284 85 % $ 932 $ 6,216 Floor coverings 8,026 25.0 2,007 85 354 2,361 Window treatment stores 803 25.0 201 85 35 236 All other home furnishings stores 9,363 25.0 2,341 85 413 2,754 Electronics & Appliances Stores Household appliance stores $ 6,554 25.0 % $ 1,639 85 % $ 289 $ 1,928 Radio, tv & electronics stores 27,019 25.0 6,755 85 1,192 7,947 Computers, Software, Music, & other electronics 8,026 25.0 2,007 85 354 2,361 Other Shopping Goods Sporting goods $ 17,656 25.0 % $ 4,414 85 % $ 779 $ 5,193 General Line Sporting Gds. 7,223 25.0 1,806 85 319 2,125 Specialty Line Sporting Gds. 10,433 25.0 2,608 85 460 3,068 Book stores & newsdealers 4,949 25.0 1,237 85 218 1,455 Stationery Stores and Office Supply 6,554 25.0 1,639 85 289 1,928 Musical Instrument & Supplies 2,943 25.0 736 85 130 866 Jewelry stores 10,032 25.0 2,508 85 443 2,951 Hobby, toy & game 4,815 25.0 1,204 85 212 1,416 Camera & photographic supply 2,006 25.0 502 85 89 591 Gift, novelty & souvenirs 5,484 25.0 1,371 85 242 1,613 Luggage & leather goods 669 25.0 167 85 29 196 Sewing, needlework & piece goods 2,541 25.0 635 85 112 747 Pet stores 4,815 25.0 1,204 85 212 1,416 Art dealers 803 25.0 201 85 35 236 Optical goods stores 4,013 25.0 1,003 85 177 1,180 Pre -Recorded Tapes, Compact Discs 764 25.0 191 85 34 225 Cosmetics, beauty supplies & perfume 3,280 25.0 820 85 145 965 All other health & personal care 5,618 25.0 1,405 85 248 1,653 Table D-1 (continued) MONTICELLO RETAIL PURCHASING POWER, MARKET SHARE AND SALES POTENTIAL, 2015 BY MERCHANDISE CATEGORY (In Thousands of Dollars) Resident Estimated Trade Trade Estimated Purchasing Market Area Area Other Total Merchandise Category Power Share Sales Percent Shoppers Sales CONVENIENCE GOODS Food Stores Grocery stores $ 132,422 40.0 % $ 52,969 85 % $ 9,347 $ 62,316 Supermarkets 129,747 40.0 51,899 85 9,159 61,058 Convenience food 2,675 20.0 535 85 94 629 Specialty food stores 4,682 20.0 936 85 165 1,101 Meat Markets 1,739 20.0 348 85 61 409 Fish & Seafood Markets 535 20.0 107 85 19 126 Fruit & Vegetable Markets 936 20.0 187 85 33 220 Other Specialty Food Stores 1,471 20.0 294 85 52 346 Baked Goods 401 20.0 80 85 14 94 Confectionery and Nut Stores 401 20.0 80 85 14 94 All Other Specialty Food Stores 669 20.0 134 85 24 158 Other Convenience Goods Drug & proprietary stores $ 57,651 25.0 % 14,413 90 % $ 1,601 $ 16,014 Hardware 8,828 20.0 1,766 90 196 1,962 Liquor 22,739 20.0 4,548 90 505 5,053 Florist 3,344 20.0 669 90 74 743 Food/health supplement stores 1,338 25.0 335 90 37 372 Food Service & Drinking Places Food Service Full-service restaurants $ 63,268 25.0 % $ 15,817 65 % $ 8,517 $ 24,334 Limited service restaurants 48,154 25.0 12,039 70 5,160 17,199 Cafeterias 2,006 0.0 0 85 0 0 Snack & beverage places 10,702 25.0 2,676 85 472 3,148 Ice Cream & Soft Serve 1,338 25.0 335 85 59 394 Frozen Yogurt 134 25.0 34 85 6 40 Doughnut Shops 1,873 25.0 468 85 83 551 Bagel Shops 535 25.0 134 85 24 158 Coffee Shops 4,548 25.0 1,137 85 201 1,338 Cookie Shops 134 25.0 34 85 6 40 Other Snack Shops 2,140 25.0 535 85 94 629 Specialized food places 21,268 25.0 5,317 85 938 6,255 Drinking Places $ 7,758 00.0 % $ - 75 % $ - $ - Gasoline Svs Stations/Conv. Gas/Convenience food stores $ 151,416 25.0 % $ 37,854 70 % $16,223 $ 54,077 Other Gas Stations & Truck Stops 16,988 25.0 4,247 70 1,820 6,067 OTHER RETAIL STORES Building Materials & Garden Supplies Building materials & supplies stores Home centers $ 36,650 25.0 % $ 9,163 65 % $ 4,934 $ 14,097 Paint, glass & wallpaper 4,949 35.0 1,732 90 192 1,924 Other building materials dealers 83,332 25.0 20,833 85 3,676 24,509 Lawn & garden equipment Outdoor power equipment 2,943 35.0 1,030 85 182 1,212 Retail nurseries, lawn & garden 12,573 35.0 4,401 85 777 5,178 Motor Vehicles & Parts Dealers Auto parts, accessories & tires Auto parts & accessories stores $ 11,503 15.0 % $ 1,725 85 % $ 304 $ 2,029 Tire dealers 8,694 15.0 1,304 85 230 1,534 Source: McComb Group, Ltd. Table D-1 (continued) MONTICELLO RETAIL PURCHASING POWER, MARKET SHARE AND SALES POTENTIAL, 2020 BY MERCHANDISE CATEGORY (In Thousands of Dollars) Merchandise Category SHOPPING GOODS General Merchandise Department stores (Incl. ]eased depts.) Discount stores Department Stores Other general merchandise stores Warehouse Clubs and Supercenters Variety stores Miscellaneous general mdse. Apparel & Accessories Clothing Stores Mens and boys Womens clothing Children's & infant Family clothing Clothing accessories stores Other clothing stores Shoe Stores Men's Women's Children's & infant Family shoe stores Athletic footwear Furniture & Home Furnishings Furniture Floor coverings Window treatment stores All other home furnishings stores Electronics & Appliances Stores Household appliance stores Radio,ty & electronics stores Computers, Software, Music, & other electronics Other Shopping Goods Sporting goods General Line Sporting Gds. Specialty Line Sporting Gds. Book stores & newsdealers Stationery Stores and Office Supply Musical Instrument & Supplies Jewelry stores Hobby, toy & game Camera & photographic supply Gift, novelty & souvenirs Luggage & leather goods Sewing, needlework & piece goods Pet stores Art dealers Optical goods stores Pre -Recorded Tapes, Compact Discs Cosmetics, beauty supplies & perfume All other health & personal care Resident Estimated Trade Trade Purchasing Market Area Area $ 86,577 28,283 97,262 4,085 9,428 $ 2,828 12,570 5,814 29,226 1,728 4,714 75.0 % $64,933 45.0 12,727 90.0 87,536 25.0 1,021 25.0 2,357 20.0 % $ 566 20.0 2,514 20.0 1,163 20.0 5,845 20.0 346 20.0 943 Estimated Other Total Shoppers Sales 65 % $ 34,964 $ 99,897 65 6,853 19,580 65 47,135 134,671 85 180 1,201 85 416 2,773 85 % $ 100 85 444 85 205 85 1,031 85 61 85 166 $ 666 2,958 1,368 6,876 407 1,109 $ 341 20.0 % $ 68 85 % $ 12 $ 80 607 20.0 121 85 21 142 157 20.0 31 85 5 36 6,285 20.0 1,257 85 222 1,479 2,671 20.0 534 85 94 628 $ 24,826 25.0 % $ 6,207 85 % $ 1,095 $ 7,302 9,428 25.0 2,357 85 416 2,773 943 25.0 236 85 42 278 10,999 25.0 2,750 85 485 3,235 $ 7,699 25.0 % $ 1,925 85 % $ 340 $ 2,265 31,740 25.0 7,935 85 1,400 9,335 9,428 25.0 2,357 85 416 2,773 $ 20,741 8,485 12,256 5,813 7,699 3,457 11,785 5,657 2,357 6,442 786 2,985 5,657 943 4,714 897 3,853 6,599 25.0 % $ 5,185 25.0 2,121 25.0 3,064 25.0 1,453 25.0 1,925 25.0 864 25.0 2,946 25.0 1,414 25.0 589 25.0 1,611 25.0 197 25.0 746 25.0 1,414 25.0 236 25.0 1,179 25.0 224 25.0 963 25.0 1,650 85 % $ 915 85 374 85 541 85 256 85 340 85 152 85 520 85 250 85 104 85 284 85 35 85 132 85 250 85 42 85 208 85 40 85 170 85 291 $ 6,100 2,495 3,605 1,709 2,265 1,016 3,466 1,664 693 1,895 232 878 1,664 278 1,387 264 1,133 1,941 Table D-1 (continued) MONTICELLO RETAIL PURCHASING POWER, MARKET SHARE AND SALES POTENTIAL, 2020 BY MERCHANDISE CATEGORY (In Thousands of Dollars) Resident Estimated Trade Trade Purchasing Market Area Area Other Merchandise Category CONVENIENCE GOODS Food Stores Grocery stores Supermarkets Convenience food Specialty food stores Meat Markets Fish & Seafood Markets Fruit & Vegetable Markets Other Specialty Food Stores Baked Goods Confectionery and Nut Stores All Other Specialty Food Stores Other Convenience Goods Drug & proprietary stores Hardware Liquor Florist Food/health supplement stores Food Service & Drinking Places Food Service Full-service restaurants Limited service restaurants Cafeterias Snack & beverage places Ice Cream & Soft Serve Frozen Yogurt Doughnut Shops Bagel Shops Coffee Shops Cookie Shops Other Snack Shops Specialized food places Drinking Places Gasoline Svs Stations/Conv. Gas/Convenience food stores Other Gas Stations & Truck Stops OTHER RETAIL STORES Building Materials & Garden Supplies Building materials & supplies stores Home centers Paint, glass & wallpaper Other building materials dealers Lawn & garden equipment Outdoor power equipment Retail nurseries, lawn & garden Motor Vehicles & Parts Dealers Auto parts, accessories & tires Auto parts & accessories stores Tire dealers Source: McComb Group, Ltd. Power Share Sales Percent Shoppers $ 155,557 152,414 3,143 5,499 2,043 629 1,100 1,728 471 471 786 $ 67,722 10,370 26,712 3,928 1,571 $ 74,321 56,566 2,357 12,570 1,571 157 2,200 629 5,342 157 2,514 24,983 $ 9,113 $ 177,869 19,955 $ 43,053 5,814 97,891 $ 3,457 14,770 40.0 % $62,223 40.0 60,966 20.0 629 20.0 1,100 20.0 409 20.0 126 20.0 220 20.0 346 20.0 94 20.0 94 20.0 157 25.0 % $16,931 20.0 2,074 20.0 5,342 20.0 786 25.0 393 25.0 % $18,580 25.0 14,142 0.0 0 25.0 3,143 25.0 393 25.0 39 25.0 550 25.0 157 25.0 1,336 25.0 39 25.0 629 25.0 6,246 00.0 % $ - 25.0 % $44,467 25.0 4,989 25.0 % $10,763 35.0 2,035 25.0 24,473 35.0 % $ 1,210 35.0 5,170 $ 13,513 15.0 % $ 2,027 10,213 15.0 1,532 85 % $10,981 85 10,759 85 111 85 194 85 72 85 22 85 39 85 61 85 17 85 17 85 28 90 % $ 1,881 90 230 90 594 90 87 90 44 65 % $10,005 70 6,061 85 0 85 555 85 69 85 7 85 97 85 28 85 236 85 7 85 111 85 1,102 75 % $ Estimated Total Sales $ 73,204 71,725 740 1,294 481 148 259 407 111 111 185 $ 18,812 2,304 5,936 873 437 $ 28,585 20,203 0 3,698 462 46 647 185 1,572 46 740 7,348 70 % $19,057 $ 63,524 70 2,138 7,127 65 % $ 5,795 $ 16,558 90 226 2,261 85 4,319 28,792 85 % $ 214 $ 1,424 85 912 6,082 85 % $ 358 $ 2,385 85 270 1,802 Table D-1 (continued) MONTICELLO RETAIL PURCHASING POWER, MARKET SHARE AND SALES POTENTIAL, 2025 BY MERCHANDISE CATEGORY (In Thousands of Dollars) Merchandise Category SHOPPING GOODS General Merchandise Department stores (Incl. ]eased depts.) Discount stores Department Stores Other general merchandise stores Warehouse Clubs Variety stores Miscellaneous general mdse. Apparel & Accessories Clothing Stores Mens and boys Women clothing Children's & infant Family clothing Clothing accessories stores Other clothing stores Shoe Stores Men's Women's Children's & infant Family shoe stores Athletic footwear Furniture & Home Furnishings Furniture Floor coverings Window treatment stores All other home furnishings stores Electronics & Appliances Stores Household appliance stores Radio, tv & electronics stores Computers, Software, Music, & other electronics Other Shopping Goods Sporting goods General Line Sporting Gds. Specialty Line Sporting Gds. Book stores & newsdealers Stationery Stores and Office Supply Musical Instrument & Supplies Jewelry stores Hobby, toy & game Camera & photographic supply Gift, novelty & souvenirs Luggage & leather goods Sewing, needlework & piece goods Pet stores Art dealers Optical goods stores Pre -Recorded Tapes, Compact Discs Cosmetics, beauty supplies & perfume All other health & personal care Resident Estimated Trade Trade Purchasing Market Area Area $ 100,712 32,900 $ 113,141 4,752 10,967 $ 3,290 14,622 6,763 33,997 2,011 5,483 $ 397 706 183 7,311 3,107 $ 28,879 10,967 1,097 12,795 $ 8,956 36,922 10,967 $ 24,127 9,870 14,257 6,763 8,956 4,021 13,708 6,580 2,742 7,494 914 3,473 6,580 1,097 5,483 1,044 4,482 7,677 Estimated Other Total Shoppers Sales 75.0 % $ 75,534 65 % $40,672 $116,206 45.0 1,005 25.0 14,805 65 1,645 7,972 22,777 90.0 % $101,827 65 % $ 54,830 $156,657 25.0 25.0 274 1,188 85 25.0 210 1,398 25.0 25.0 1,919 2,742 85 484 3,226 20.0 % $ 658 85 % $ 116 $ 774 20.0 2,924 85 516 3,440 20.0 1,353 85 239 1,592 20.0 6,799 85 1,200 7,999 20.0 402 85 71 473 20.0 1,097 85 194 1,291 20.0 % $ 79 85 % $ 14 $ 93 20.0 141 85 25 166 20.0 37 85 7 44 20.0 1,462 85 258 1,720 20.0 621 85 110 731 25.0 % $ 7,220 85 % $ 1,274 $ 8,494 25.0 2,742 85 484 3,226 25.0 274 85 48 322 25.0 3,199 85 565 3,764 25.0 % $ 2,239 85 % $ 395 $ 2,634 25.0 9,231 85 1,629 10,860 25.0 2,742 85 484 3,226 25.0 % $ 6,032 25.0 2,468 25.0 3,564 25.0 1,691 25.0 2,239 25.0 1,005 25.0 3,427 25.0 1,645 25.0 686 25.0 1,874 25.0 229 25.0 868 25.0 1,645 25.0 274 25.0 1,371 25.0 261 25.0 1,121 25.0 1,919 85 % $ 1,064 85 436 85 629 85 298 85 395 85 177 85 605 85 290 85 121 85 331 85 40 85 153 85 290 85 48 85 242 85 46 85 198 85 339 $ 7,096 2,904 4,193 1,989 2,634 1,182 4,032 1,935 807 2,205 269 1,021 1,935 322 1,613 307 1,319 2,258 Table D-1 (continued) MONTICELLO RETAIL PURCHASING POWER, MARKET SHARE AND SALES POTENTIAL, 2025 BY MERCHANDISE CATEGORY (In Thousands of Dollars) Merchandise Category CONVENIENCE GOODS Food Stores Grocery stores Supermarkets Convenience food Specialty food stores Meat Markets Fish & Seafood Markets Fruit & Vegetable Markets Other Specialty Food Stores Baked Goods Confectionery and Nut Stores All Other Specialty Food Stora Other Convenience Goods Drug & proprietary stores Hardware Liquor Florist Food/health supplement stores Food Service & Drinking Places Food Service Full-service restaurants Limited service restaurants Cafeterias Snack & beverage places Ice Cream & Soft Serve Frozen Yogurt Doughnut Shops Bagel Shops Coffee Shops Cookie Shops Other Snack Shops Specialized food places Drinking Places Gasoline Svs Stations/Conv. Gas/Convenience food stores Other Gas Stations & Truck Stops OTHER RETAIL STORES Building Materials & Garden Supplies Building materials & supplies stores Home centers Paint, glass & wallpaper Other building materials dealers Lawn & garden equipment Outdoor power equipment Retail nurseries, lawn & garden Motor Vehicles & Parts Dealers Auto parts, accessories & tires Auto parts & accessories stores Tire dealers Source: McComb Group, Ltd. Resident Estimated Trade Trade 0.0 Purchasing Market Area Area Other Power Share Sales Percent Shoppers 2,559 20.0 512 $ 180,952 40.0 % $ 72,381 85 % $12,773 177,296 40.0 70,918 85 12,515 3,656 20.0 731 85 129 6,397 20.0 1,279 85 226 2,376 20.0 475 85 84 731 20.0 146 85 26 1,279 20.0 256 85 45 2,011 20.0 402 85 71 548 20.0 110 85 19 548 20.0 110 85 19 914 20.0 183 85 32 $ 78,778 25.0 % $ 19,695 90 % $ 2,188 12,063 20.0 2,413 90 268 31,073 20.0 6,215 90 691 4,569 20.0 914 90 102 1,828 25.0 457 90 51 $ 86,455 25.0 % $ 21,614 65,801 25.0 16,450 2,742 0.0 0 14,623 25.0 3,656 1,828 20.0 366 183 20.0 37 2,559 20.0 512 731 20.0 146 6,215 20.0 1,243 183 20.0 37 2,924 20.0 585 29,062 20.0 5,812 $ 10,601 00.0 % $ $ 206,907 25.0 % $ 51,727 23,213 25.0 5,803 $ 50,082 25.0 % $ 12,521 6,763 35.0 2,367 113,872 25.0 28,468 $ 4,021 35.0 % $ 1,407 17,181 35.0 6,013 $ 15,719 15.0 % $ 2,358 11,881 15.0 1,782 65 % $11,638 70 7,050 85 0 85 645 85 65 85 7 85 90 85 26 85 219 85 7 85 103 85 1,026 75 % $ Estimated Total Sales $ 85,154 83,433 860 1,505 559 172 301 473 129 129 215 $ 21,883 2,681 6,906 1,016 508 $ 33,252 23,500 0 4,301 431 44 602 172 1,462 44 688 6,838 70 % $ 22,169 $ 73,896 70 2,487 8,290 65 % $ 6,742 $ 19,263 90 263 2,630 85 5,024 33,492 85 % $ 248 $ 1,655 85 1,061 7,074 85 % $ 416 $ 2,774 85 314 2,096 Table D-1 (continued) MONTICELLO RETAIL PURCHASING POWER, MARKET SHARE AND SALES POTENTIAL, 2030 BY MERCHANDISE CATEGORY (In Thousands of Dollars) Merchandise Category SHOPPING GOODS General Merchandise Department stores (Incl. ]eased depts.) Discount stores Department Stores Other general merchandise stores Warehouse Clubs Variety stores Miscellaneous general mdse. Apparel & Accessories Clothing Stores Mens and boys Womens clothing Children's & infant Family clothing Clothing accessories stores Other clothing stores Shoe Stores Men's Women's Children's & infant Family shoe stores Athletic footwear Furniture & Home Furnishings Furniture Floor coverings Window treatment stores All other home furnishings stores Electronics & Appliances Stores Household appliance stores Radio, tv & electronics stores Computers, Software, Music, & other electronics Other Shopping Goods Sporting goods General Line Sporting Gds. Specialty Line Sporting Gds. Book stores & newsdealers Stationery Stores and Office Supply Musical Instrument & Supplies Jewelry stores Hobby, toy & game Camera & photographic supply Gift, novelty & souvenirs Luggage & leather goods Sewing, needlework & piece goods Pet stores Art dealers Optical goods stores Pre -Recorded Tapes, Compact Discs Cosmetics, beauty supplies & perfume All other health & personal care Resident Estimated Trade Trade Purchasing Market Area Area $ 116,584 75.0 % $87,438 Estimated Other Total Shoppers Sales 65 % $47,082 $134,520 38,086 45.0 25.0 17,139 65 1,957 9,229 2,592 26,368 130,972 90.0 3,967 117,875 65 25.0 63,471 25.0 181,346 5,501 25.0 25.0 1,375 85 1,904 243 318 1,618 12,695 25.0 302 3,174 85 25.0 560 3,734 $ 3,809 20.0 % $ 762 85 % $ 134 $ 896 16,927 20.0 3,385 85 597 3,982 7,829 20.0 1,566 85 276 1,842 39,355 20.0 7,871 85 1,389 9,260 2,327 20.0 465 85 82 547 6,348 20.0 1,270 85 224 1,494 $ 459 20.0 % $ 92 85 % $ 16 $ 108 817 20.0 163 85 29 192 212 20.0 42 85 7 49 8,463 20.0 1,693 85 299 1,992 3,597 20.0 719 85 127 846 $ 33,431 25.0 % $ 8,358 85 % $ 1,475 $ 9,833 12,695 25.0 3,174 85 560 3,734 1,270 25.0 318 85 56 374 14,811 25.0 3,703 85 653 4,356 $ 10,368 25.0 % $ 2,592 85 % $ 457 $ 3,049 42,741 25.0 10,685 85 1,886 12,571 12,695 25.0 3,174 85 560 3,734 $ 27,930 11,426 16,504 7,829 10,368 4,655 15,869 7,617 3,174 8,675 1,058 4,020 7,617 1,270 6,348 1,208 5,188 8,887 25.0 % $ 6,983 25.0 2,857 25.0 4,126 25.0 1,957 25.0 2,592 25.0 1,164 25.0 3,967 25.0 1,904 25.0 794 25.0 2,169 25.0 265 25.0 1,005 25.0 1,904 25.0 318 25.0 1,587 25.0 302 25.0 1,297 25.0 2,222 85 % $ 1,232 85 504 85 728 85 345 85 457 85 205 85 700 85 336 85 140 85 383 85 47 85 177 85 336 85 56 85 280 85 53 85 229 85 392 $ 8,215 3,361 4,854 2,302 3,049 1,369 4,667 2,240 934 2,552 312 1,182 2,240 374 1,867 355 1,526 2,614 Table D-1 (continued) MONTICELLO RETAIL PURCHASING POWER, MARKET SHARE AND SALES POTENTIAL, 2030 BY MERCHANDISE CATEGORY (In Thousands of Dollars) Resident Estimated Trade Trade Purchasing Market Area Area Other Merchandise Category CONVENIENCE GOODS Food Stores Grocery stores Supermarkets Convenience food Specialty food stores Meat Markets Fish & Seafood Markets Fruit & Vegetable Markets Other Specialty Food Stores Baked Goods Confectionery and Nut Stores All Other Specialty Food Stores Other Convenience Goods Drug & proprietary stores Hardware Liquor Florist Food/health supplement stores Food Service & Drinking Places Food Service Full-service restaurants Limited service restaurants Cafeterias Snack & beverage places Ice Cream & Soft Serve Frozen Yogurt Doughnut Shops Bagel Shops Coffee Shops Cookie Shops Other Snack Shops Specialized food places Drinking Places Gasoline Svs Stations/Conv. Gas/Convenience food stores Other Gas Stations & Truck Stops OTHER RETAIL STORES Building Materials & Garden Supplies Building materials & supplies stores Home centers Paint, glass & wallpaper Other building materials dealers Lawn & garden equipment Outdoor power equipment Retail nurseries, lawn & garden Motor Vehicles & Parts Dealers Auto parts, accessories & tires Auto parts & accessories stores Tire dealers Source: McComb Group, Ltd. Power Share Sales Percent Shoppers $ 209,471 205,239 4,232 7,406 2,751 846 1,481 2,327 635 635 1,058 $ 91,194 13,965 35,970 5,290 2,116 $ 100,081 76,171 3,174 16,927 2,116 212 2,962 846 7,194 212 3,385 33,642 $ 12,272 $ 239,517 26,872 $ 57,975 7,829 131,819 $ 4,655 19,889 40.0 % $83,788 40.0 82,096 20.0 846 20.0 1,481 20.0 550 20.0 169 20.0 296 20.0 465 20.0 127 20.0 127 20.0 212 25.0 % $22,799 20.0 2,793 20.0 7,194 20.0 1,058 25.0 529 25.0 % $25,020 25.0 19,043 0.0 0 25.0 4,232 25.0 529 25.0 53 25.0 741 25.0 212 25.0 1,799 25.0 53 25.0 846 25.0 8,411 0.0 % $ - 25.0 % $59,879 25.0 6,718 25.0 % $14,494 35.0 2,740 25.0 32,955 35.0 % $ 1,629 35.0 6,961 $ 18,196 15.0 % $ 2,729 13,753 15.0 2,063 85 % $14,786 85 14,488 85 149 85 261 85 97 85 30 85 52 85 82 85 22 85 22 85 37 90 % $ 2,533 90 310 90 799 90 118 90 59 65 % $13,472 70 8,161 85 0 85 747 85 93 85 9 85 131 85 37 85 317 85 9 85 149 85 1,484 75 % $ Estimated Total Sales $ 98,574 96,584 995 1,742 647 199 348 547 149 149 249 $ 25,332 3,103 7,993 1,176 588 $ 38,492 27,204 0 4,979 622 62 872 249 2,116 62 995 9,895 70 % $25,662 $ 85,541 70 2,879 9,597 65 % $ 7,804 $ 22,298 90 304 3,044 85 5,816 38,771 85 % $ 287 $ 1,916 85 1,228 8,189 85 % $ 482 $ 3,211 85 364 2,427 Table D-2 MONTICELLO SERVICES PURCHASING POWER, MARKET SHARE AND SALES POTENTIAL, 2010 BY SERVICES CATEGORY (In Thousands of Dollars) Resident Estimated Trade Trade Estimated Purchasing Market Area Area Other Total Category Power Share Sales Percent Shoppers Sales Personal Care Services Barber Shops $ 62 45.0 % $ 28 85 % $ 5 $ 33 Beauty Shops 10,301 45.0 4,635 85 818 5,453 Nail Salons 749 45.0 337 85 59 396 Diet & Weight Reducing Services 666 45.0 300 85 53 353 Other Personal Care Services 1,478 45.0 665 85 117 782 Drycleaning and Laundry Services Coin -Operated Laundries & Drycleaners $ 687 20.0 % $ 137 85 % $ 24 $ 161 Drycleaning & Laundry Services (except coin -op.) 2,206 20.0 441 85 78 519 Other Personal Services Child Day Care Services $ 9,948 55.0 % $ 5,471 85 % $ 965 $ 6,436 Funeral Homes & Funeral Services 2,664 55.0 1,465 85 259 1,724 Photographic Services 21,061 55.0 11,584 85 2,044 13,628 Photographic Studios 1,998 55.0 1,099 85 194 1,293 Veteranarian Services 7,471 55.0 4,109 85 725 4,834 Pet Care 853 55.0 469 85 83 552 Rental and Leasing Formalwear and Costume Rental $ 395 45.0 % $ 178 85 % $ 31 $ 209 Video Tape and Disc Rental 2,560 45.0 1,152 85 203 1,355 Home Health Equipment Rental 936 46.0 431 85 76 507 Recreation Bowling Centers $ 1,915 45.0 % $ 862 85 % $ 152 $ 1,014 Physical Fitness Facilites 9,136 45.0 4,111 85 725 4,836 Golf Courses and Country Clubs 6,909 45.0 3,109 85 549 3,658 Professional Services Offices of Real Estate Agents & Brokers $ 25,244 25.0 % $ 6,311 85 % $ 1,114 $ 7,425 Insurance Agencies 48,947 25.0 12,237 85 2,159 14,396 Offices of Lawyers 80,663 25.0 20,166 85 3,559 23,725 Tax Preparation Services 1,602 25.0 401 85 71 472 Interior Design 2,643 25.0 661 85 117 778 Household Goods Repair Home & Garden Equipment & Appliance Repair &Maint. $ 770 50.0 % $ 385 85 % $ 68 $ 453 Reupholstery & Furniture Repair 437 50.0 219 85 39 258 Footwear and Leather Goods Repair 83 50.0 42 85 7 49 Watch, Clock and Jewelry Repair 104 50.0 52 85 9 61 Garment Repair and Alteration Services 271 50.0 136 85 24 160 Computer & Office Machine Repair 2,997 50.0 1,499 85 265 1,764 Automotive Repair and Maintenance General Automotive Repair $ 14,963 50.0 % $ 7,482 85 % $ 1,320 $ 8,802 Automotive Exhaust System Repair 208 50.0 104 85 18 122 Automotive Transmission Repair 791 50.0 396 85 70 466 Brake, Front End & Wheel Alignment 187 50.0 94 85 17 111 Electrical Repair Shops, Motor Vehicle 83 50.0 42 85 7 49 Paint or Body Repair Shops 8,949 50.0 4,475 85 790 5,265 Automotive Glass Replacement 1,769 50.0 885 85 156 1,041 Automotive Oil Change & Lubrication Shops 1,540 50.0 770 85 136 906 Carwashes 1,915 50.0 958 85 169 1,127 Table D-2 (continued) MONTICELLO SERVICES PURCHASING POWER, MARKET SHARE AND SALES POTENTIAL, 2010 BY SERVICES CATEGORY (In Thousands of Dollars) Category Resident Purchasing Power Health Care Offices of Physicians Market Offices of Physicians (except mental health specialists) $ 89,133 Offices of Physicians, Mental Health Specialists 812 Offices of Dentists 39,790 Offices of Other Health Practitioners Shoppers Offices of Chiropractors 5,744 Offices of Optometrists 2,622 Offices of Mental Health Practitioners (except physicians) 2,955 Offices of Physical, Occup, & Speech Therapists & Audiologists Speech Therapist & Audiologists 312 Physical & Occupational Therapists 4,953 Offices of All Other Health Practitioners 64 Offices of Podiatrists 479 Offices of All Other Misc. Health Practitioners 2,164 Outpatient Care Centers 21,066 Outpatient Mental Health & Substance Abuse Centers $ 3,975 Other Outpatient Care Centers 456 Kidney Dialysis Centers 4,016 All Other Outpatient Care Centers 7,679 Home Health Care Services 17,023 Source: McComb Group, Ltd. 1,330 Estimated Trade Trade Estimated Market Area Area Other Total Share Sales Percent Shoppers Sales 45.0 % $ 40,110 85 % $ 7,078 $ 47,188 45.0 365 85 64 429 45.0 17,906 85 3,160 21,066 45.0 2,585 85 456 3,041 45.0 1,180 85 208 1,388 45.0 1,330 85 235 1,565 45.0 140 85 25 165 45.0 2,229 85 393 2,622 45.0 216 85 38 254 45.0 974 85 172 1,146 45.0 % $ 1,789 85 % $ 316 $ 2,105 45.0 1,807 85 319 2,126 45.0 3,456 85 610 4,066 45.0 7,660 85 1,352 9,012 Table D-2 (continued) MONTICELLO SERVICES PURCHASING POWER, MARKET SHARE AND SALES POTENTIAL, 2015 BY SERVICES CATEGORY (In Thousands of Dollars) Resident Purchasing Personal Care Services % Barber Shops $ 76 Beauty Shops 12,556 Nail Salons 913 Diet & Weight Reducing Services 812 Other Personal Care Services 1,801 Drycleaning and Laundry Services 997 Coin -Operated Laundries & Drycleaners $ 837 Drycleaning & Laundry Services (except coin -op.) 2,689 Other Personal Services 64 Child Day Care Services $ 12,124 Funeral Homes & Funeral Services 3,247 Photographic Services 25,669 Photographic Studios 2,435 Veteranarian Services 9,106 Pet Care 1,040 Rental and Leasing 315 Formalwear and Costume Rental $ 482 Video Tape and Disc Rental 3,120 Home Health Equipment Rental 1,141 Recreation Bowling Centers $ 2,334 Physical Fitness Facilites 11,135 Golf Courses and Country Clubs 8,421 Professional Services Offices of Real Estate Agents & Brokers $ 30,768 Insurance Agencies 59,658 Offices of Lawyers 98,315 Tax Preparation Services 1,953 Interior Design 3,221 Household Goods Repair Home & Garden Equipment & Appliance Repair &Maint. $ 939 Reupholstery & Furniture Repair 533 Footwear and Leather Goods Repair 101 Watch, Clock and Jewelry Repair 127 Garment Repair and Alteration Services 330 Computer & Office Machine Repair 3,653 Automotive Repair and Maintenance 85 General Automotive Repair $ 18,237 Automotive Exhaust System Repair 254 Automotive Transmission Repair 964 Brake, Front End & Wheel Alignment 228 Electrical Repair Shops, Motor Vehicle 101 Paint or Body Repair Shops 10,907 Automotive Glass Replacement 2,156 Automotive Oil Change & Lubrication Shops 1,877 Carwashes 2,334 Estimated Trade Market Area 45.0 % $ 34 45.0 5,650 45.0 411 45.0 365 45.0 810 Trade % Estimated Area Other Total Percent Shoppers Sales 85 % $ 6 $ 40 85 997 6,647 85 73 484 85 64 429 85 143 953 20.0 % $ 167 85 % $ 29 $ 196 20.0 538 85 95 633 55.0 % $ 6,668 85 % $ 1,177 $ 7,845 55.0 1,786 85 315 2,101 55.0 14,118 85 2,491 16,609 55.0 1,339 85 236 1,575 55.0 5,008 85 884 5,892 55.0 572 85 101 673 45.0 % 217 85 % $ 38 $ 255 45.0 1,404 85 248 1,652 45.0 513 85 91 604 45.0 % $ 1,050 85 % $ 185 $ 1,235 45.0 5,011 85 884 5,895 45.0 3,789 85 669 4,458 25.0 % $ 7,692 85 % $ 1,357 $ 9,049 25.0 14,915 85 2,632 17,547 25.0 24,579 85 4,337 28,916 25.0 488 85 86 574 25.0 805 85 142 947 50.0 % $ 470 85 % $ 83 $ 553 50.0 267 85 47 314 50.0 51 85 9 60 50.0 64 85 11 75 50.0 165 85 29 194 50.0 1,827 85 322 2,149 50.0 % $ 9,119 85 % $ 1,609 $ 10,728 50.0 127 85 22 149 50.0 482 85 85 567 50.0 114 85 20 134 50.0 51 85 9 60 50.0 5,454 85 962 6,416 50.0 1,078 85 190 1,268 50.0 939 85 166 1,105 50.0 1,167 85 206 1,373 Table D-2 (continued) MONTICELLO SERVICES PURCHASING POWER, MARKET SHARE AND SALES POTENTIAL, 2015 BY SERVICES CATEGORY (In Thousands of Dollars) Category Resident Purchasing Power Health Care Offices of Physicians Market Offices of Physicians (except mental health specialists) $ 108,638 Offices of Physicians, Mental Health Specialists 989 Offices of Dentists 48,498 Offices of Other Health Practitioners Shoppers Offices of Chiropractors 7,001 Offices of Optometrists 3,196 Offices of Mental Health Practitioners (except physicians) 3,602 Offices of Physical, Occup, & Speech Therapists & Audiologists Speech Therapist & Audiologists 380 Physical & Occupational Therapists 6,037 Offices of All Other Health Practitioners 79 Offices of Podiatrists 583 Offices of All Other Misc. Health Practitioners 2,638 Outpatient Care Centers 25,675 Outpatient Mental Health & Substance Abuse Centers $ 4,845 Other Outpatient Care Centers 556 Kidney Dialysis Centers 4,895 All Other Outpatient Care Centers 9,360 Home Health Care Services 20,749 Source: McComb Group, Ltd. 1,621 Estimated Trade Trade Estimated Market Area Area Other Total Share Sales Percent Shoppers Sales 45.0 % $ 48,887 85 % $ 8,627 $ 57,514 45.0 445 85 79 524 45.0 21,824 85 3,851 25,675 45.0 3,150 85 556 3,706 45.0 1,438 85 254 1,692 45.0 1,621 85 286 1,907 45.0 171 85 30 201 45.0 2,717 85 479 3,196 45.0 262 85 46 308 45.0 1,187 85 209 1,396 45.0 % $ 2,180 85 % $ 385 $ 2,565 45.0 2,203 85 389 2,592 45.0 4,212 85 743 4,955 45.0 9,337 85 1,648 10,985 Table D-2 (continued) MONTICELLO SERVICES PURCHASING POWER, MARKET SHARE AND SALES POTENTIAL, 2020 BY SERVICES CATEGORY (In Thousands of Dollars) Resident Estimated Trade Purchasing Market Area Personal Care Services 2,150 Barber Shops $ 92 Beauty Shops 15,118 Nail Salons 1,099 Diet & Weight Reducing Services 977 Other Personal Care Services 2,168 Drycleaning and Laundry Services 1,201 Coin -Operated Laundries & Drycleaners $ 1,008 Drycleaning & Laundry Services (except coin -op.) 3,237 Other Personal Services 78 Child Day Care Services $ 14,598 Funeral Homes & Funeral Services 3,909 Photographic Services 30,907 Photographic Studios 2,932 Veteranarian Services 10,964 Pet Care 1,252 Rental and Leasing 85 Formalwear and Costume Rental $ 580 Video Tape and Disc Rental 3,756 Home Health Equipment Rental 1,374 Recreation 1,898 Bowling Centers $ 2,810 Physical Fitness Facilites 13,407 Golf Courses and Country Clubs 10,139 Professional Services % $ 46 Offices of Real Estate Agents & Brokers $ 37,046 Insurance Agencies 71,831 Offices of Lawyers 118,375 Tax Preparation Services 2,352 Interior Design 3,879 Household Goods Repair 1,298 Home & Garden Equipment & Appliance Repair &Maint. $ 1,130 Reupholstery & Furniture Repair 641 Footwear and Leather Goods Repair 122 Watch, Clock and Jewelry Repair 153 Garment Repair and Alteration Services 397 Computer & Office Machine Repair 4,398 Automotive Repair and Maintenance General Automotive Repair $ 21,959 Automotive Exhaust System Repair 305 Automotive Transmission Repair 1,161 Brake, Front End & Wheel Alignment 275 Electrical Repair Shops, Motor Vehicle 122 Paint or Body Repair Shops 13,132 Automotive Glass Replacement 2,596 Automotive Oil Change & Lubrication Shops 2,260 Carwashes 2,810 45.0 % $ 41 45.0 6,803 45.0 495 45.0 440 45.0 976 20.0 % $ 202 20.0 647 55.0 % $ 8,029 55.0 2,150 55.0 16,999 55.0 1,613 55.0 6,030 55.0 689 45.0 % $ 261 45.0 1,690 45.0 618 45.0 % $ 1,265 45.0 6,033 45.0 4,563 25.0 % $ 9,262 25.0 17,958 25.0 29,594 25.0 588 25.0 970 Trade 7,098 Estimated Area Other Total Percent Shoppers Sales 85 % $ 7 $ 48 85 1,201 8,004 85 87 582 85 78 518 85 172 1,148 85 % $ 36 $ 238 85 114 761 85 % $ 1,417 $ 9,446 85 379 2,529 85 3,000 19,999 85 285 1,898 85 1,064 7,094 85 122 811 85 % $ 46 $ 307 85 298 1,988 85 109 727 85 % $ 223 $ 1,488 85 1,065 7,098 85 805 5,368 85 % $ 1,634 $ 10,896 85 3,169 21,127 85 5,222 34,816 85 104 692 85 171 1,141 50.0 % $ 565 85 % $ 100 $ 665 50.0 321 85 57 378 50.0 61 85 11 72 50.0 77 85 14 91 50.0 199 85 35 234 50.0 2,199 85 388 2,587 50.0 % $ 10,980 85 % $ 1,938 $ 12,918 50.0 153 85 27 180 50.0 581 85 103 684 50.0 138 85 24 162 50.0 61 85 11 72 50.0 6,566 85 1,159 7,725 50.0 1,298 85 229 1,527 50.0 1,130 85 199 1,329 50.0 1,405 85 248 1,653 Table D-2 (continued) MONTICELLO SERVICES PURCHASING POWER, MARKET SHARE AND SALES POTENTIAL, 2020 BY SERVICES CATEGORY (In Thousands of Dollars) Resident Estimated Trade Purchasing Market Area Health Care Offices of Physicians Offices of Physicians (except mental health specialists) $ 130,805 Offices of Physicians, Mental Health Specialists 1,191 Offices of Dentists 58,394 Offices of Other Health Practitioners Offices of Chiropractors 8,429 Offices of Optometrists 3,848 Offices of Mental Health Practitioners (except physicians) 4,337 Offices of Physical, Occup, & Speech Therapists & Audiologists Speech Therapist & Audiologists 458 Physical & Occupational Therapists 7,269 Offices of All Other Health Practitioners Offices of Podiatrists 702 Offices of All Other Misc. Health Practitioners 3,176 Outpatient Care Centers Outpatient Mental Health & Substance Abuse Centers $ 5,833 Other Outpatient Care Centers Kidney Dialysis Centers 5,894 All Other Outpatient Care Centers 11,269 Home Health Care Services 24,982 Source: McComb Group, Ltd. 45.0 % $ 58,862 45.0 536 45.0 26,277 45.0 3,793 45.0 1,732 45.0 1,952 45.0 206 45.0 3,271 45.0 316 45.0 1,429 45.0 % $ 2,625 45.0 2,652 45.0 5,071 45.0 11,242 Trade Estimated Area Other Total Percent Shoppers Sales 85 % $ 10,387 85 95 85 4,637 85 669 85 306 85 344 85 36 85 577 85 56 85 252 85 % $ 463 85 468 85 895 85 1,984 $ 69,249 631 30,914 4,462 2,038 2,296 242 3,848 372 1,681 $ 3,088 3,120 5,966 13,226 Table D-2 (continued) MONTICELLO SERVICES PURCHASING POWER, MARKET SHARE AND SALES POTENTIAL, 2025 BY SERVICES CATEGORY (In Thousands of Dollars) Resident Estimated Trade Trade Estimated Purchasing Market Area Area Other Total Personal Care Services Barber Shops $ 109 Beauty Shops 18,025 Nail Salons 1,311 Diet & Weight Reducing Services 1,165 Other Personal Care Services 2,585 Drycleaning and Laundry Services $ Coin -Operated Laundries & Drycleaners $ 1,202 Drycleaning & Laundry Services (except coin -op.) 3,860 Other Personal Services Child Day Care Services $ 17,406 Funeral Homes & Funeral Services 4,661 Photographic Services 36,851 Photographic Studios 3,496 Veteranarian Services 13,073 Pet Care 1,493 Rental and Leasing 524 Formalwear and Costume Rental $ 692 Video Tape and Disc Rental 4,479 Home Health Equipment Rental 1,639 Recreation 1,163 Bowling Centers $ 3,350 Physical Fitness Facilites 15,986 Golf Courses and Country Clubs 12,090 Professional Services $ 240 Offices of Real Estate Agents & Brokers $ 44,171 Insurance Agencies 85,647 Offices of Lawyers 141,142 Tax Preparation Services 2,804 Interior Design 4,625 Household Goods Repair Home & Garden Equipment & Appliance Repair &Maint. $ 1,347 Reupholstery & Furniture Repair 765 Footwear and Leather Goods Repair 146 Watch, Clock and Jewelry Repair 182 Garment Repair and Alteration Services 473 Computer & Office Machine Repair 5,244 Automotive Repair and Maintenance General Automotive Repair $ 26,182 Automotive Exhaust System Repair 364 Automotive Transmission Repair 1,384 Brake, Front End & Wheel Alignment 328 Electrical Repair Shops, Motor Vehicle 146 Paint or Body Repair Shops 15,658 Automotive Glass Replacement 3,095 Automotive Oil Change & Lubrication Shops 2,695 Carwashes 3,350 bare Sales Percent Shoppers Sales 45.0 % $ 49 85 % $ 9 $ 58 45.0 8,111 85 1,431 9,542 45.0 590 85 104 694 45.0 524 85 92 616 45.0 1,163 85 205 1,368 20.0 % $ 240 85 % $ 42 $ 282 20.0 772 85 136 908 55.0 % $ 9,573 85 % $ 1,689 $ 11,262 55.0 2,564 85 452 3,016 55.0 20,268 85 3,577 23,845 55.0 1,923 85 339 2,262 55.0 7,190 85 1,269 8,459 55.0 821 85 145 966 45.0 % $ 311 85 % $ 55 $ 366 45.0 2,016 85 356 2,372 45.0 738 85 130 868 45.0 % $ 1,508 85 % $ 266 $ 1,774 45.0 7,194 85 1,270 8,464 45.0 5,441 85 960 6,401 25.0 % $ 11,043 85 % $ 1,949 $ 12,992 25.0 21,412 85 3,779 25,191 25.0 35,286 85 6,227 41,513 25.0 701 85 124 825 25.0 1,156 85 204 1,360 50.0 % $ 674 85 % $ 119 $ 793 50.0 383 85 68 451 50.0 73 85 13 86 50.0 91 85 16 107 50.0 237 85 42 279 50.0 2,622 85 463 3,085 50.0 % $ 13,091 85 % $ 2,310 $ 15,401 50.0 182 85 32 214 50.0 692 85 122 814 50.0 164 85 29 193 50.0 73 85 13 86 50.0 7,829 85 1,382 9,211 50.0 1,548 85 273 1,821 50.0 1,348 85 238 1,586 50.0 1,675 85 296 1,971 Table D-2 (continued) MONTICELLO SERVICES PURCHASING POWER, MARKET SHARE AND SALES POTENTIAL, 2025 BY SERVICES CATEGORY (In Thousands of Dollars) Category Resident Purchasing Power Health Care Offices of Physicians Market Offices of Physicians (except mental health specialists) $ 155,963 Offices of Physicians, Mental Health Specialists 1,420 Offices of Dentists 69,624 Offices of Other Health Practitioners Shoppers Offices of Chiropractors 10,050 Offices of Optometrists 4,588 Offices of Mental Health Practitioners (except physicians) 5,171 Offices of Physical, Occup, & Speech Therapists & Audiologists Speech Therapist & Audiologists 546 Physical & Occupational Therapists 8,667 Offices of All Other Health Practitioners 113 Offices of Podiatrists 838 Offices of All Other Misc. Health Practitioners 3,787 Outpatient Care Centers 36,860 Outpatient Mental Health & Substance Abuse Centers $ 6,955 Other Outpatient Care Centers 798 Kidney Dialysis Centers 7,028 All Other Outpatient Care Centers 13,437 Home Health Care Services 29,787 Source: McComb Group, Ltd. 2,327 Estimated Trade Trade Estimated Market Area Area Other Total Share Sales Percent Shoppers Sales 45.0 % $ 70,183 85 % $ 12,385 $ 82,568 45.0 639 85 113 752 45.0 31,331 85 5,529 36,860 45.0 4,523 85 798 5,321 45.0 2,065 85 364 2,429 45.0 2,327 85 411 2,738 45.0 246 85 43 289 45.0 3,900 85 688 4,588 45.0 377 85 67 444 45.0 1,704 85 301 2,005 45.0 % $ 3,130 85 % $ 552 $ 3,682 45.0 3,163 85 558 3,721 45.0 6,047 85 1,067 7,114 45.0 13,404 85 2,365 15,769 Table D-2 (continued) MONTICELLO SERVICES PURCHASING POWER, MARKET SHARE AND SALES POTENTIAL, 2030 BY SERVICES CATEGORY (In Thousands of Dollars) Resident Estimated Trade Trade Estimated Purchasing Market Area Area Other Total Personal Care Services Barber Shops $ 130 Beauty Shops 21,387 Nail Salons 1,555 Diet & Weight Reducing Services 1,383 Other Personal Care Services 3,068 Drycleaning & Laundry Services 45.0 Coin -Operated Laundries & Drycleaners $ 1,426 Drycleaning & Laundry Services (except coin -op.) 4,580 Other Personal Services 11,322 Child Day Care Services $ 20,652 Funeral Homes & Funeral Services 5,530 Photographic Services 43,724 Photographic Studios 4,148 Veteranarian Services 15,511 Pet Care 1,771 Rental and Leasing 732 Formalwear and Costume Rental $ 821 Video Tape and Disc Rental 5,314 Home Health Equipment Rental 1,944 Recreation 20.0 Bowling Centers $ 3,975 Physical Fitness Facilites 18,967 Golf Courses and Country Clubs 14,344 Professional Services Offices of Real Estate Agents & Brokers $ 52,408 Insurance Agencies 101,619 Offices of Lawyers 167,464 Tax Preparation Services 3,327 Interior Design 5,487 Household Goods Repair $ 13,364 Home & Garden Equipment & Appliance Repair &Maint. $ 1,599 Reupholstery & Furniture Repair 907 Footwear and Leather Goods Repair 173 Watch, Clock and Jewelry Repair 216 Garment Repair and Alteration Services 562 Computer & Office Machine Repair 6,222 Automotive Repair and Maintenance 28,292 General Automotive Repair $ 31,065 Automotive Exhaust System Repair 432 Automotive Transmission Repair 1,642 Brake, Front End & Wheel Alignment 389 Electrical Repair Shops, Motor Vehicle 173 Paint or Body Repair Shops 18,578 Automotive Glass Replacement 3,672 Automotive Oil Change & Lubrication Shops 3,197 Carwashes 3,975 care Sales Percent Shoppers Sales 45.0 % $ 59 85 % $ 10 $ 69 45.0 9,624 85 1,698 11,322 45.0 700 85 124 824 45.0 622 85 110 732 45.0 1,381 85 244 1,625 20.0 % $ 285 85 % $ 50 $ 335 20.0 916 85 162 1,078 55.0 % $ 11,359 85 % $ 2,005 $ 13,364 55.0 3,042 85 537 3,579 55.0 24,048 85 4,244 28,292 55.0 2,281 85 403 2,684 55.0 8,531 85 1,505 10,036 55.0 974 85 172 1,146 45.0 % $ 369 85 % $ 65 $ 434 45.0 2,391 85 422 2,813 45.0 875 85 154 1,029 45.0 % $ 1,789 85 % $ 316 $ 2,105 45.0 8,535 85 1,506 10,041 45.0 6,455 85 1,139 7,594 25.0 % $ 13,102 85 % $ 2,312 $ 15,414 25.0 25,405 85 4,483 29,888 25.0 41,866 85 7,388 49,254 25.0 832 85 147 979 25.0 1,372 85 242 1,614 50.0 % $ 800 85 % $ 141 $ 941 50.0 454 85 80 534 50.0 87 85 15 102 50.0 108 85 19 127 50.0 281 85 50 331 50.0 3,111 85 549 3,660 50.0 % $ 15,533 85 % $ 2,741 $ 18,274 50.0 216 85 38 254 50.0 821 85 145 966 50.0 195 85 34 229 50.0 87 85 15 102 50.0 9,289 85 1,639 10,928 50.0 1,836 85 324 2,160 50.0 1,599 85 282 1,881 50.0 1,988 85 351 2,339 Table D-2 (continued) MONTICELLO SERVICES PURCHASING POWER, MARKET SHARE AND SALES POTENTIAL, 2030 BY SERVICES CATEGORY (In Thousands of Dollars) Category Resident Purchasing Power Health Care Offices of Physicians Market Offices of Physicians (except mental health specialists) $ 185,048 Offices of Physicians, Mental Health Specialists 1,685 Offices of Dentists 82,608 Offices of Other Health Practitioners Shoppers Offices of Chiropractors 11,925 Offices of Optometrists 5,444 Offices of Mental Health Practitioners (except physicians) 6,135 Offices of Physical, Occup, & Speech Therapists & Audiologists Speech Therapist & Audiologists 648 Physical & Occupational Therapists 10,283 Offices of All Other Health Practitioners 134 Offices of Podiatrists 994 Offices of All Other Misc. Health Practitioners 4,493 Outpatient Care Centers 43,734 Outpatient Mental Health & Substance Abuse Centers $ 8,252 Other Outpatient Care Centers 947 Kidney Dialysis Centers 8,339 All Other Outpatient Care Centers 15,943 Home Health Care Services 35,342 Source: McComb Group, Ltd. 2,761 Estimated Trade Trade Estimated Market Area Area Other Total Share Sales Percent Shoppers Sales 45.0 % $ 83,272 85 % $ 14,695 $ 97,967 45.0 758 85 134 892 45.0 37,174 85 6,560 43,734 45.0 5,366 85 947 6,313 45.0 2,450 85 432 2,882 45.0 2,761 85 487 3,248 45.0 292 85 52 344 45.0 4,627 85 817 5,444 45.0 447 85 79 526 45.0 2,022 85 357 2,379 45.0 % $ 3,713 85 % $ 655 $ 4,368 45.0 3,753 85 662 4,415 45.0 7,174 85 1,266 8,440 45.0 15,904 85 2,807 18,711 Appendix E RETAIL AND SERVICES SALES POTENTIAL AND SUPPORTABLE SPACE Monticello Trade Area Retail E-1 Monticello Trade Area Services E-2 Table E-1 MONTICELLO RETAIL SALES POTENTIAL AND SUPPORTABLE SPACE, 2010 BY MERCHANDISE CATEGORY Estimated Sales Sales Supportable Store Size Category Potential Per Sq. Ft. Square Feet Low Median High SHOPPING GOODS General Merchandise Department stores Discount stores $ 71,517,000 $ 275 260,062 57,720 94,788 141,986 Department Stores 14,018,000 225 62,302 89,641 148,796 243,167 Other general merchandise stores Warehouse Clubs and Supercenters $ 96,412,000 $ 450 214,249 90,134 151,980 217,447 Variety stores 860,000 220 3,909 2,726 8,000 13,788 Miscellaneous general mdse. 1,985,000 250 7,940 3,200 8,400 11,212 Apparel & Accessories Clothing Stores Mens and boys $ 476,000 $ 220 2,164 2,002 4,000 5,635 Womens clothing 2,118,000 200 10,590 2,074 4,200 8,740 Children's & infant 979,000 240 4,079 1,490 3,912 6,000 Family clothing 4,924,000 260 18,938 2,374 8,000 28,228 Clothing accessories stores 291,000 290 1,003 918 1,400 2,001 Other clothing stores 794,000 265 2,996 1,060 2,300 8,234 Shoe Stores Men's $ 58,000 $ 290 200 903 1,640 2,186 Women's 102,000 270 378 1,309 2,384 3,158 Children's & infant 26,000 290 90 1,490 3,912 6,000 Family shoe stores 1,059,000 175 6,051 2,021 3,388 10,234 Athletic footwear 449,000 175 2,566 1,535 3,284 11,314 Furniture & Home Furnishings Furniture $ 5,227,000 $ 260 20,104 3,108 7,927 36,712 Floor coverings 1,985,000 225 8,822 1,229 3,593 7,819 Window treatment stores 199,000 210 948 1,489 4,905 9,934 All other home furnishings stores 2,316,000 175 13,234 2,868 3,570 6,500 Electronics & Appliances Stores Household appliance stores $ 1,621,000 $ 275 5,895 2,349 4,000 7,563 Radio, tv & electronics stores 6,684,000 300 22,280 1,208 3,406 10,451 Computers, Software, Music, & other electronics 1,985,000 580 3,422 997 3,388 25,600 Other Shopping Goods Sporting goods $ 4,367,000 $ 200 21,835 2,238 7,500 44,116 General Line Sporting Gds. 1,787,000 200 8,935 3,765 5,850 28,128 Specialty Line Sporting Gds. 2,581,000 225 11,471 1,097 2,449 4,356 Book stores & newsdealers 1,225,000 160 7,656 2,428 4,542 29,974 Stationery Stores and Office Supply 1,621,000 375 4,323 585 1,033 2,247 Musical Instrument & Supplies 728,000 240 3,033 2,432 7,324 26,094 Jewelry stores 2,481,000 325 7,634 790 1,450 3,410 Hobby, toy & game 1,192,000 175 6,811 1,604 4,050 25,861 Camera & photographic supply 496,000 275 1,804 816 2,200 5,965 Gift, novelty & souvenirs 1,356,000 150 9,040 2,369 4,422 7,015 Luggage & leather goods 166,000 200 830 1,193 2,300 3,102 Sewing, needlework & piece goods 628,000 100 6,280 2,678 12,202 19,299 Pet stores 1,192,000 200 5,960 1,847 3,200 12,398 Art dealers 199,000 225 884 675 1,434 2,401 Optical goods stores 993,000 290 3,424 885 1,561 4,068 Pre -Recorded Tapes, Compact Discs 189,000 230 822 1,308 3,426 12,753 Cosmetics, beauty supplies & perfume 812,000 320 2,538 1,102 1,953 6,235 All other health & personal care 1,389,000 275 5,051 697 1,786 3,084 Table E-1 (continued) MONTICELLO RETAIL SALES POTENTIAL AND SUPPORTABLE SPACE, 2010 BY MERCHANDISE CATEGORY Estimated Sales Sales Supportable Potential Per Sq. Ft. Square Feet Low CONVENIENCE GOODS Food Stores Store Size Median High Grocery stores $ 52,407,000 $ 500 104,814 31,676 52,500 65,888 Supermarkets 51,348,000 500 102,696 31,245 52,419 69,462 Convenience food 529,000 300 1,763 1,349 2,085 5,323 Specialty food stores 926,000 200 4,630 1,188 2,400 6,000 Meat Markets 344,000 225 1,529 1,130 2,215 18,080 Fish & Seafood Markets 106,000 250 424 1,188 2,398 6,000 Fruit & Vegetable Markets 185,000 200 925 1,036 1,400 2,516 Other Specialty Food Stores 291,000 225 1,293 1,112 2,291 9,888 Baked Goods 79,000 250 316 1,191 1,834 3,285 Confectionery and Nut Stores 79,000 320 247 702 1,240 2,047 All Other Specialty Food Stores 132,000 200 660 1,069 2,200 8,007 Other Convenience Goods Drug & proprietary stores $ 13,468,000 $ 460 29,278 8,280 11,700 23,714 Hardware 1,650,000 185 8,919 5,638 13,831 27,743 Liquor 4,250,000 375 11,333 1,305 2,856 7,210 Florist 624,000 190 3,284 766 1,600 5,396 Food/health supplement stores 312,000 250 1,248 1,200 1,234 1,968 Food Service & Drinking Places Food Service Full-service restaurants $ 20,465,000 $ 360 56,847 2,000 4,500 9,775 Limited service restaurants 14,463,000 400 36,158 1,335 3,000 3,400 Cafeterias 0 235 0 517 1,073 10,049 Snack & beverage places 2,647,000 300 8,823 850 1,500 2,495 Ice Cream & Soft Serve 331,000 325 1,018 902 1,148 1,570 Frozen Yogurt 33,000 200 165 1,031 1,282 1,700 Doughnut Shops 464,000 220 2,109 744 1,200 2,153 Bagel Shops 133,000 275 484 2,000 2,388 3,400 Coffee Shops 1,125,000 400 2,813 881 1,500 2,000 Cookie Shops 33,000 400 83 220 602 797 Other Snack Shops 529,000 360 1,469 850 1,578 2,495 Specialized food places 5,261,000 400 13,153 N/A Drinking Places $ - $ 250 0 2,243 Gasoline Svs Stations/Conv. Gas/Convenience food stores $ 45,479,000 $ 1,400 32,485 1,500 2,933 6,121 Other Gas Stations & Truck Stops 5,103,000 1,000 5,103 2,000 OTHER RETAIL STORES Building Materials & Garden Supplie, Building materials & supplies stores Home centers $ 11,855,000 $ 350 33,871 8,981 95,173 135,833 Paint, glass & wallpaper 1,619,000 225 7,196 2,348 3,533 5,028 Other building materials dealers 20,612,000 225 91,609 N/A N/A N/A Lawn & garden equipment Outdoor power equipment $ 1,019,000 $ 100 10,190 N/A N/A N/A Retail nurseries, lawn & garden 4,354,000 100 43,540 N/A 15,000 N/A Motor Vehicles & Parts Dealers Auto parts, accessories & tires Auto parts & accessories stores $ 1,707,000 $ 200 8,535 2,232 6,500 13,000 Tire dealers 1,291,000 200 6,455 3,514 6,944 12,014 Source: McComb Group, Ltd. Table E-1 (continued) MONTICELLO RETAIL SALES POTENTIAL AND SUPPORTABLE SPACE, 2015 BY MERCHANDISE CATEGORY Estimated Sales Sales Supportable Store Size Category Potential Per Sq. Ft. Square Feet Low Median High SHOPPING GOODS General Merchandise Department stores Discount stores $ 85,042,000 $ 275 309,244 57,720 94,788 141,986 Department Stores 16,669,000 225 74,084 89,641 148,796 243,167 Other general merchandise stores Warehouse Clubs and Supercenters $ 114,642,000 $ 450 254,760 90,134 151,980 217,447 Variety stores 1,024,000 220 4,655 2,726 8,000 13,788 Miscellaneous general mdse. 2,361,000 250 9,444 3,200 8,400 11,212 Apparel & Accessories Clothing Stores Mens and boys $ 567,000 $ 220 2,577 2,002 4,000 5,635 Women clothing 2,518,000 200 12,590 2,074 4,200 8,740 Children's & infant 1,165,000 240 4,854 1,490 3,912 6,000 Family clothing 5,854,000 260 22,515 2,374 8,000 28,228 Clothing accessories stores 346,000 290 1,193 918 1,400 2,001 Other clothing stores 945,000 265 3,566 1,060 2,300 8,234 Shoe Stores Men's $ 68,000 $ 290 234 903 1,640 2,186 Women's 121,000 270 448 1,309 2,384 3,158 Children's & infant 32,000 290 110 1,490 3,912 6,000 Family shoe stores 1,259,000 175 7,194 2,021 3,388 10,234 Athletic footwear 535,000 175 3,057 1,535 3,284 11,314 Furniture & Home Furnishings Furniture $ 6,216,000 $ 260 23,908 3,108 7,927 36,712 Floor coverings 2,361,000 225 10,493 1,229 3,593 7,819 Window treatment stores 236,000 210 1,124 1,489 4,905 9,934 All other home furnishings stores 2,754,000 175 15,737 2,868 3,570 6,500 Electronics & Appliances Stores Household appliance stores $ 1,928,000 $ 275 7,011 2,349 4,000 7,563 Radio, tv & electronics stores 7,947,000 300 26,490 1,208 3,406 10,451 Computers, Software, Music, & other electronics 2,361,000 580 4,071 997 3,388 25,600 Other Shopping Goods Sporting goods $ 5,193,000 $ 200 25,965 2,238 7,500 44,116 General Line Sporting Gds. 2,125,000 200 10,625 3,765 5,850 28,128 Specialty Line Sporting Gds. 3,068,000 225 13,636 1,097 2,449 4,356 Book stores & newsdealers 1,455,000 160 9,094 2,428 4,542 29,974 Stationery Stores and Office Supply 1,928,000 375 5,141 585 1,033 2,247 Musical Instrument & Supplies 866,000 240 3,608 2,432 7,324 26,094 Jewelry stores 2,951,000 325 9,080 790 1,450 3,410 Hobby, toy & game 1,416,000 175 8,091 1,604 4,050 25,861 Camera & photographic supply 591,000 275 2,149 816 2,200 5,965 Gift, novelty & souvenirs 1,613,000 150 10,753 2,369 4,422 7,015 Luggage & leather goods 196,000 200 980 1,193 2,300 3,102 Sewing, needlework & piece goods 747,000 100 7,470 2,678 12,202 19,299 Pet stores 1,416,000 200 7,080 1,847 3,200 12,398 Art dealers 236,000 225 1,049 675 1,434 2,401 Optical goods stores 1,180,000 290 4,069 885 1,561 4,068 Pre -Recorded Tapes, Compact Discs 225,000 230 978 1,308 3,426 12,753 Cosmetics, beauty supplies & perfume 965,000 320 3,016 1,102 1,953 6,235 All other health & personal care 1,653,000 275 6,011 697 1,786 3,084 Table E-1 (continued) MONTICELLO RETAIL SALES POTENTIAL AND SUPPORTABLE SPACE, 2015 BY MERCHANDISE CATEGORY Estimated Sales Sales Supportable Store Size Category Potential Per Sq. Ft. Square Feet Low Median High CONVENIENCE GOODS Food Stores Grocery stores $ 62,316,000 $ 500 124,632 31,676 52,500 65,888 Supermarkets 61,058,000 500 122,116 31,245 52,419 69,462 Convenience food 629,000 300 2,097 1,349 2,085 5,323 Specialty food stores 1,101,000 200 5,505 1,188 2,400 6,000 Meat Markets 409,000 225 1,818 1,130 2,215 18,080 Fish & Seafood Markets 126,000 250 504 1,188 2,398 6,000 Fruit & Vegetable Markets 220,000 200 1,100 1,036 1,400 2,516 Other Specialty Food Stores 346,000 225 1,538 1,112 2,291 9,888 Baked Goods 94,000 250 376 1,191 1,834 3,285 Confectionery and Nut Stores 94,000 320 294 702 1,240 2,047 All Other Specialty Food Stores 158,000 200 790 1,069 2,200 8,007 Other Convenience Goods Drug & proprietary stores $ 16,014,000 $ 460 34,813 8,280 11,700 23,714 Hardware 1,962,000 185 10,605 5,638 13,831 27,743 Liquor 5,053,000 375 13,475 1,305 2,856 7,210 Florist 743,000 190 3,911 766 1,600 5,396 Food/health supplement stores 372,000 250 1,488 1,200 1,234 1,968 Food Service & Drinking Places Food Service Full-service restaurants $ 24,334,000 $ 360 67,594 2,000 4,500 9,775 Limited service restaurants 17,199,000 400 42,998 1,335 3,000 3,400 Cafeterias 0 235 0 517 1,073 10,049 Snack & beverage places 3,148,000 300 10,493 850 1,500 2,495 Ice Cream & Soft Serve 394,000 325 1,212 902 1,148 1,570 Frozen Yogurt 40,000 200 200 1,031 1,282 1,700 Doughnut Shops 551,000 220 2,505 744 1,200 2,153 Bagel Shops 158,000 275 575 2,000 2,388 3,400 Coffee Shops 1,338,000 400 3,345 881 1,500 2,000 Cookie Shops 40,000 400 100 220 602 797 Other Snack Shops 629,000 360 1,747 850 1,578 2,495 Specialized food places 6,255,000 400 15,638 N/A Drinking Places $ - $ 250 0 2,243 Gasoline Svs Stations/Conv. Gas/Convenience food stores $ 54,077,000 $ 1,400 38,626 1,500 2,933 6,121 Other Gas Stations & Truck Stops 6,067,000 1,000 6,067 2,000 OTHER RETAIL STORES Building Materials & Garden Supplies Building materials & supplies stores Home centers $ 14,097,000 $ 350 40,277 8,981 95,173 135,833 Paint, glass & wallpaper 1,924,000 225 8,551 2,348 3,533 5,028 Other building materials dealers 24,509,000 225 108,929 N/A N/A N/A Lawn & garden equipment Outdoor power equipment 1,212,000 100 12,120 N/A N/A N/A Retail nurseries, lawn & garden 5,178,000 100 51,780 N/A 15,000 N/A Motor Vehicles & Parts Dealers Auto parts, accessories & tires Auto parts & accessories stores $ 2,029,000 $ 200 10,145 2,232 6,500 13,000 Tire dealers 1,534,000 200 7,670 3,514 6,944 12,014 Source: McComb Group, Ltd. Table E-1 (continued) MONTICELLO RETAIL SALES POTENTIAL AND SUPPORTABLE SPACE, 2020 BY MERCHANDISE CATEGORY Estimated Sales Sales Supportable Store Size Category Potential Per Sq. Ft. Square Feet Low Median High SHOPPING GOODS General Merchandise Department stores Discount stores $ 99,897,000 $ 275 363,262 57,720 94,788 141,986 Department Stores 19,580,000 225 87,022 89,641 148,796 243,167 Other general merchandise stores Warehouse Clubs and Supercenters $ 134,671,000 $ 450 299,269 90,134 151,980 217,447 Variety stores 1,201,000 220 5,459 2,726 8,000 13,788 Miscellaneous general mdse. 2,773,000 250 11,092 3,200 8,400 11,212 Apparel & Accessories Clothing Stores Mens and boys $ 666,000 $ 220 3,027 2,002 4,000 5,635 Women clothing 2,958,000 200 14,790 2,074 4,200 8,740 Children's & infant 1,368,000 240 5,700 1,490 3,912 6,000 Family clothing 6,876,000 260 26,446 2,374 8,000 28,228 Clothing accessories stores 407,000 290 1,403 918 1,400 2,001 Other clothing stores 1,109,000 265 4,185 1,060 2,300 8,234 Shoe Stores Men's $ 80,000 $ 290 276 903 1,640 2,186 Women's 142,000 270 526 1,309 2,384 3,158 Children's & infant 36,000 290 124 1,490 3,912 6,000 Family shoe stores 1,479,000 175 8,451 2,021 3,388 10,234 Athletic footwear 628,000 175 3,589 1,535 3,284 11,314 Furniture & Home Furnishings Furniture $ 7,302,000 $ 260 28,085 3,108 7,927 36,712 Floor coverings 2,773,000 225 12,324 1,229 3,593 7,819 Window treatment stores 278,000 210 1,324 1,489 4,905 9,934 All other home furnishings stores 3,235,000 175 18,486 2,868 3,570 6,500 Electronics & Appliances Stores Household appliance stores $ 2,265,000 $ 275 8,236 2,349 4,000 7,563 Radio, tv & electronics stores 9,335,000 300 31,117 1,208 3,406 10,451 Computers, Software, Music, & other electronics 2,773,000 580 4,781 997 3,388 25,600 Other Shopping Goods Sporting goods $ 6,100,000 $ 200 30,500 2,238 7,500 44,116 General Line Sporting Gds. 2,495,000 200 12,475 3,765 5,850 28,128 Specialty Line Sporting Gds. 3,605,000 225 16,022 1,097 2,449 4,356 Book stores & newsdealers 1,709,000 160 10,681 2,428 4,542 29,974 Stationery Stores and Office Supply 2,265,000 375 6,040 585 1,033 2,247 Musical Instrument & Supplies 1,016,000 240 4,233 2,432 7,324 26,094 Jewelry stores 3,466,000 325 10,665 790 1,450 3,410 Hobby, toy & game 1,664,000 175 9,509 1,604 4,050 25,861 Camera & photographic supply 693,000 275 2,520 816 2,200 5,965 Gift, novelty & souvenirs 1,895,000 150 12,633 2,369 4,422 7,015 Luggage & leather goods 232,000 200 1,160 1,193 2,300 3,102 Sewing, needlework & piece goods 878,000 100 8,780 2,678 12,202 19,299 Pet stores 1,664,000 200 8,320 1,847 3,200 12,398 Art dealers 278,000 225 1,236 675 1,434 2,401 Optical goods stores 1,387,000 290 4,783 885 1,561 4,068 Pre -Recorded Tapes, Compact Discs 264,000 230 1,148 1,308 3,426 12,753 Cosmetics, beauty supplies & perfume 1,133,000 320 3,541 1,102 1,953 6,235 All other health & personal care 1,941,000 275 7,058 697 1,786 3,084 Table E-1 (continued) MONTICELLO RETAIL SALES POTENTIAL AND SUPPORTABLE SPACE, 2020 BY MERCHANDISE CATEGORY Estimated Sales Sales Supportable Store Size Category Potential Per Sq. Ft. Square Feet Low Median High CONVENIENCE GOODS Food Stores Grocery stores $ 73,204,000 $ 500 146,408 31,676 52,500 65,888 Supermarkets 71,725,000 500 143,450 31,245 52,419 69,462 Convenience food 740,000 300 2,467 1,349 2,085 5,323 Specialty food stores 1,294,000 200 6,470 1,188 2,400 6,000 Meat Markets 481,000 225 2,138 1,130 2,215 18,080 Fish & Seafood Markets 148,000 250 592 1,188 2,398 6,000 Fruit & Vegetable Markets 259,000 200 1,295 1,036 1,400 2,516 Other Specialty Food Stores 407,000 225 1,809 1,112 2,291 9,888 Baked Goods 111,000 250 444 1,191 1,834 3,285 Confectionery and Nut Stores 111,000 320 347 702 1,240 2,047 All Other Specialty Food Stores 185,000 200 925 1,069 2,200 8,007 Other Convenience Goods Drug & proprietary stores $ 18,812,000 $ 460 40,896 8,280 11,700 23,714 Hardware 2,304,000 185 12,454 5,638 13,831 27,743 Liquor 5,936,000 375 15,829 1,305 2,856 7,210 Florist 873,000 190 4,595 766 1,600 5,396 Food/health supplement stores 437,000 250 1,748 1,200 1,234 1,968 Food Service & Drinking Places Food Service Full-service restaurants $ 28,585,000 $ 360 79,403 2,000 4,500 9,775 Limited service restaurants 20,203,000 400 50,508 1,335 3,000 3,400 Cafeterias 0 235 0 517 1,073 10,049 Snack & beverage places 3,698,000 300 12,327 850 1,500 2,495 Ice Cream & Soft Serve 462,000 325 1,422 902 1,148 1,570 Frozen Yogurt 46,000 200 230 1,031 1,282 1,700 Doughnut Shops 647,000 220 2,941 744 1,200 2,153 Bagel Shops 185,000 275 673 2,000 2,388 3,400 Coffee Shops 1,572,000 400 3,930 881 1,500 2,000 Cookie Shops 46,000 400 115 220 602 797 Other Snack Shops 740,000 360 2,056 850 1,578 2,495 Specialized food places 7,348,000 400 18,370 N/A Drinking Places $ - $ 250 0 2,243 Gasoline Svs Stations/Conv. Gas/Convenience food stores $ 63,524,000 $ 1,400 45,374 1,500 2,933 6,121 Other Gas Stations & Truck Stops 7,127,000 1,000 7,127 2,000 OTHER RETAIL STORES Building Materials & Garden Supplies Building materials & supplies stores Home centers $ 16,558,000 $ 350 47,309 8,981 95,173 135,833 Paint, glass & wallpaper 2,261,000 225 10,049 2,348 3,533 5,028 Other building materials dealers 28,792,000 225 127,964 N/A N/A N/A Lawn & garden equipment Outdoor power equipment $ 1,424,000 $ 100 14,240 N/A N/A N/A Retail nurseries, lawn & garden 6,082,000 100 60,820 N/A 15,000 N/A Motor Vehicles & Parts Dealers Auto parts, accessories & tires Auto parts & accessories stores $ 2,385,000 $ 200 11,925 2,232 6,500 13,000 Tire dealers $ 1,802,000 200 9,010 3,514 6,944 12,014 Source: McComb Group, Ltd. Table E-1 (continued) MONTICELLO RETAIL SALES POTENTIAL AND SUPPORTABLE SPACE, 2025 BY MERCHANDISE CATEGORY Estimated Sales Sales Supportable Store Size Category Potential Per Sq. Ft. Square Feet Low Median High SHOPPING GOODS General Merchandise Department stores Discount stores $ 116,206,000 $ 275 422,567 57,720 94,788 141,986 Conventional 22,777,000 225 101,231 89,641 148,796 243,167 Other general merchandise stores Warehouse Clubs $156,657,000 $ 450 348,127 90,134 151,980 217,447 Variety stores 1,398,000 220 6,355 2,726 8,000 13,788 Miscellaneous general mdse. 3,226,000 250 12,904 3,200 8,400 11,212 Apparel & Accessories Clothing Stores Mens and boys $ 774,000 $ 220 3,518 2,002 4,000 5,635 Women clothing 3,440,000 200 17,200 2,074 4,200 8,740 Children's & infant 1,592,000 240 6,633 1,490 3,912 6,000 Family clothing 7,999,000 260 30,765 2,374 8,000 28,228 Clothing accessories stores 473,000 290 1,631 918 1,400 2,001 Other clothing stores 1,291,000 265 4,872 1,060 2,300 8,234 Shoe Stores Men's $ 93,000 $ 290 321 903 1,640 2,186 Women's 166,000 270 615 1,309 2,384 3,158 Children's & infant 44,000 290 152 1,490 3,912 6,000 Family shoe stores 1,720,000 175 9,829 2,021 3,388 10,234 Athletic footwear 731,000 175 4,177 1,535 3,284 11,314 Furniture & Home Furnishings Furniture $ 8,494,000 $ 260 32,669 3,108 7,927 36,712 Floor coverings 3,226,000 225 14,338 1,229 3,593 7,819 Window treatment stores 322,000 210 1,533 1,489 4,905 9,934 All other home furnishings stores 3,764,000 175 21,509 2,868 3,570 6,500 Electronics & Appliances Stores Household appliance stores $ 2,634,000 $ 275 9,578 2,349 4,000 7,563 Radio, tv & electronics stores 10,860,000 300 36,200 1,208 3,406 10,451 Computers, Software, Music, & other electronics 3,226,000 580 5,562 997 3,388 25,600 Other Shopping Goods Sporting goods $ 7,096,000 $ 200 35,480 2,238 7,500 44,116 General Line Sporting Gds. 2,904,000 200 14,520 3,765 5,850 28,128 Specialty Line Sporting Gds. 4,193,000 225 18,636 1,097 2,449 4,356 Book stores & newsdealers 1,989,000 160 12,431 2,428 4,542 29,974 Stationery Stores and Office Supply 2,634,000 375 7,024 585 1,033 2,247 Musical Instrument & Supplies 1,182,000 240 4,925 2,432 7,324 26,094 Jewelry stores 4,032,000 325 12,406 790 1,450 3,410 Hobby, toy & game 1,935,000 175 11,057 1,604 4,050 25,861 Camera & photographic supply 807,000 275 2,935 816 2,200 5,965 Gift, novelty & souvenirs 2,205,000 150 14,700 2,369 4,422 7,015 Luggage & leather goods 269,000 200 1,345 1,193 2,300 3,102 Sewing, needlework & piece goods 1,021,000 100 10,210 2,678 12,202 19,299 Pet stores 1,935,000 200 9,675 1,847 3,200 12,398 Art dealers 322,000 225 1,431 675 1,434 2,401 Optical goods stores 1,613,000 290 5,562 885 1,561 4,068 Pre -Recorded Tapes, Compact Discs 307,000 230 1,335 1,308 3,426 12,753 Cosmetics, beauty supplies & perfume 1,319,000 320 4,122 1,102 1,953 6,235 All other health & personal care 2,258,000 275 8,211 697 1,786 3,084 Table E-1 (continued) MONTICELLO RETAIL SALES POTENTIAL AND SUPPORTABLE SPACE, 2025 BY MERCHANDISE CATEGORY Estimated Sales Sales Supportable Store Size Category Potential Per Sq. Ft. Square Feet Low Median High CONVENIENCE GOODS Food Stores Grocery stores $ 85,154,000 $ 500 170,308 31,676 52,500 65,888 Supermarkets 83,433,000 500 166,866 31,245 52,419 69,462 Convenience food 860,000 300 2,867 1,349 2,085 5,323 Specialty food stores 1,505,000 200 7,525 1,188 2,400 6,000 Meat Markets 559,000 225 2,484 1,130 2,215 18,080 Fish & Seafood Markets 172,000 250 688 1,188 2,398 6,000 Fruit & Vegetable Markets 301,000 200 1,505 1,036 1,400 2,516 Other Specialty Food Stores 473,000 225 2,102 1,112 2,291 9,888 Baked Goods 129,000 250 516 1,191 1,834 3,285 Confectionery and Nut Stores 129,000 320 403 702 1,240 2,047 All Other Specialty Food Stores 215,000 200 1,075 1,069 2,200 8,007 Other Convenience Goods Drug & proprietary stores $ 21,883,000 $ 460 47,572 8,280 11,700 23,714 Hardware 2,681,000 185 14,492 5,638 13,831 27,743 Liquor 6,906,000 375 18,416 1,305 2,856 7,210 Florist 1,016,000 190 5,347 766 1,600 5,396 Food/health supplement stores 508,000 250 2,032 1,200 1,234 1,968 Food Service & Drinking Places Food Service Full-service restaurants $ 33,252,000 $ 360 92,367 2,000 4,500 9,775 Limited service restaurants 23,500,000 400 58,750 1,335 3,000 3,400 Cafeterias 0 235 0 517 1,073 10,049 Snack & beverage places 4,301,000 300 14,337 850 1,500 2,495 Ice Cream & Soft Serve 431,000 325 1,326 902 1,148 1,570 Frozen Yogurt 44,000 200 220 1,031 1,282 1,700 Doughnut Shops 602,000 220 2,736 744 1,200 2,153 Bagel Shops 172,000 275 625 2,000 2,388 3,400 Coffee Shops 1,462,000 400 3,655 881 1,500 2,000 Cookie Shops 44,000 400 110 220 602 797 Other Snack Shops 688,000 360 1,911 850 1,578 2,495 Specialized food places 6,838,000 400 17,095 N/A Drinking Places $ $ 250 0 2,243 Gasoline Svs Stations/Conv. Gas/Convenience food stores $ 73,896,000 $ 1,400 52,783 1,500 2,933 6,121 Other Gas Stations & Truck Stops 8,290,000 1,000 8,290 2,000 OTHER RETAIL STORES Building Materials & Garden Supplies Building materials & supplies stores Home centers $ 19,263,000 $ 350 55,037 8,981 95,173 135,833 Paint, glass & wallpaper 2,630,000 225 11,689 2,348 3,533 5,028 Other building materials dealers 33,492,000 225 148,853 N/A N/A N/A Lawn & garden equipment Outdoor power equipment $ 1,655,000 $ 100 16,550 N/A N/A N/A Retail nurseries, lawn & garden 7,074,000 100 70,740 N/A 15,000 N/A Motor Vehicles & Parts Dealers Auto parts, accessories & tires Auto parts & accessories stores $ 2,774,000 $ 200 13,870 2,232 6,500 13,000 Tire dealers 2,096,000 200 10,480 3,514 6,944 12,014 Source: McComb Group, Ltd. Table E-1 (continued) MONTICELLO RETAIL SALES POTENTIAL AND SUPPORTABLE SPACE, 2030 BY MERCHANDISE CATEGORY Estimated Sales Sales Supportable Store Size Category Potential Per Sq. Ft. Square Feet Low Median High SHOPPING GOODS General Merchandise Department stores Discount stores $ 134,520,000 $ 275 489,164 57,720 94,788 141,986 Conventional 26,368,000 225 117,191 89,641 148,796 243,167 Other general merchandise stores Warehouse Clubs $ 181,346,000 $ 450 402,991 90,134 151,980 217,447 Variety stores 1,618,000 220 7,355 2,726 8,000 13,788 Miscellaneous general mdse. 3,734,000 250 14,936 3,200 8,400 11,212 Apparel & Accessories Clothing Stores Mens and boys $ 896,000 $ 220 4,073 2,002 4,000 5,635 Women clothing 3,982,000 200 19,910 2,074 4,200 8,740 Children's & infant 1,842,000 240 7,675 1,490 3,912 6,000 Family clothing 9,260,000 260 35,615 2,374 8,000 28,228 Clothing accessories stores 547,000 290 1,886 918 1,400 2,001 Other clothing stores 1,494,000 265 5,638 1,060 2,300 8,234 Shoe Stores Men's $ 108,000 $ 290 372 903 1,640 2,186 Women's 192,000 270 711 1,309 2,384 3,158 Children's & infant 49,000 290 169 1,490 3,912 6,000 Family shoe stores 1,992,000 175 11,383 2,021 3,388 10,234 Athletic footwear 846,000 175 4,834 1,535 3,284 11,314 Furniture & Home Furnishings Furniture $ 9,833,000 $ 260 37,819 3,108 7,927 36,712 Floor coverings 3,734,000 225 16,596 1,229 3,593 7,819 Window treatment stores 374,000 210 1,781 1,489 4,905 9,934 All other home furnishings stores 4,356,000 175 24,891 2,868 3,570 6,500 Electronics & Appliances Stores Household appliance stores $ 3,049,000 $ 275 11,087 2,349 4,000 7,563 Radio, tv & electronics stores 12,571,000 300 41,903 1,208 3,406 10,451 Computers, Software, Music, & other electronics 3,734,000 580 6,438 997 3,388 25,600 Other Shopping Goods Sporting goods $ 8,215,000 $ 200 41,075 2,238 7,500 44,116 General Line Sporting Gds. 3,361,000 200 16,805 3,765 5,850 28,128 Specialty Line Sporting Gds. 4,854,000 225 21,573 1,097 2,449 4,356 Book stores & newsdealers 2,302,000 160 14,388 2,428 4,542 29,974 Stationery Stores and Office Supply 3,049,000 375 8,131 585 1,033 2,247 Musical Instrument & Supplies 1,369,000 240 5,704 2,432 7,324 26,094 Jewelry stores 4,667,000 325 14,360 790 1,450 3,410 Hobby, toy & game 2,240,000 175 12,800 1,604 4,050 25,861 Camera & photographic supply 934,000 275 3,396 816 2,200 5,965 Gift, novelty & souvenirs 2,552,000 150 17,013 2,369 4,422 7,015 Luggage & leather goods 312,000 200 1,560 1,193 2,300 3,102 Sewing, needlework & piece goods 1,182,000 100 11,820 2,678 12,202 19,299 Pet stores 2,240,000 200 11,200 1,847 3,200 12,398 Art dealers 374,000 225 1,662 675 1,434 2,401 Optical goods stores 1,867,000 290 6,438 885 1,561 4,068 Pre -Recorded Tapes, Compact Discs 355,000 230 1,543 1,308 3,426 12,753 Cosmetics, beauty supplies & perfume 1,526,000 320 4,769 1,102 1,953 6,235 All other health & personal care 2,614,000 275 9,505 697 1,786 3,084 Table E-1 (continued) MONTICELLO RETAIL SALES POTENTIAL AND SUPPORTABLE SPACE, 2030 BY MERCHANDISE CATEGORY Estimated Sales Sales Supportable Store Size Category Potential Per Sq. Ft. Square Feet Low Median High CONVENIENCE GOODS Food Stores Grocery stores $ 98,574,000 $ 500 197,148 31,676 52,500 65,888 Supermarkets 96,584,000 500 193,168 31,245 52,419 69,462 Convenience food 995,000 300 3,317 1,349 2,085 5,323 Specialty food stores 1,742,000 200 8,710 1,188 2,400 6,000 Meat Markets 647,000 225 2,876 1,130 2,215 18,080 Fish & Seafood Markets 199,000 250 796 1,188 2,398 6,000 Fruit & Vegetable Markets 348,000 200 1,740 1,036 1,400 2,516 Other Specialty Food Stores 547,000 225 2,431 1,112 2,291 9,888 Baked Goods 149,000 250 596 1,191 1,834 3,285 Confectionery and Nut Stores 149,000 320 466 702 1,240 2,047 All Other Specialty Food Stores 249,000 200 1,245 1,069 2,200 8,007 Other Convenience Goods Drug & proprietary stores $ 25,332,000 $ 460 55,070 8,280 11,700 23,714 Hardware 3,103,000 185 16,773 5,638 13,831 27,743 Liquor 7,993,000 375 21,315 1,305 2,856 7,210 Florist 1,176,000 190 6,189 766 1,600 5,396 Food/health supplement stores 588,000 250 2,352 1,200 1,234 1,968 Food Service & Drinking Places Food Service Full-service restaurants $ 38,492,000 $ 360 106,922 2,000 4,500 9,775 Limited service restaurants 27,204,000 400 68,010 1,335 3,000 3,400 Cafeterias 0 235 0 517 1,073 10,049 Snack & beverage places 4,979,000 300 16,597 850 1,500 2,495 Ice Cream & Soft Serve 622,000 325 1,914 902 1,148 1,570 Frozen Yogurt 62,000 200 310 1,031 1,282 1,700 Doughnut Shops 872,000 220 3,964 744 1,200 2,153 Bagel Shops 249,000 275 905 2,000 2,388 3,400 Coffee Shops 2,116,000 400 5,290 881 1,500 2,000 Cookie Shops 62,000 400 155 220 602 797 Other Snack Shops 995,000 360 2,764 850 1,578 2,495 Specialized food places 9,895,000 400 24,738 N/A Drinking Places $ $ 250 0 2,243 Gasoline Svs Stations/Conv. Gas/Convenience food stores $ 85,541,000 $ 1,400 61,101 1,500 2,933 6,121 Other Gas Stations & Truck Stops 9,597,000 1,000 9,597 2,000 OTHER RETAIL STORES Building Materials & Garden Supplies Building materials & supplies stores Home centers $ 22,298,000 $ 350 63,709 8,981 95,173 135,833 Paint, glass & wallpaper 3,044,000 225 13,529 2,348 3,533 5,028 Other building materials dealers 38,771,000 225 172,316 N/A N/A N/A Lawn & garden equipment Outdoor power equipment $ 1,916,000 $ 100 19,160 N/A N/A N/A Retail nurseries, lawn & garden 8,189,000 100 81,890 N/A 15,000 N/A Motor Vehicles & Parts Dealers Auto parts, accessories & tires Auto parts & accessories stores $ 3,211,000 $ 200 16,055 2,232 6,500 13,000 Tire dealers 2,427,000 200 12,135 3,514 6,944 12,014 Source: McComb Group, Ltd. Table E-2 MONTICELLO SERVICES SALES POTENTIAL AND SUPPORTABLE SQUARE FEET, 2010 BY SERVICES CATEGORY Category Estimated Sales Potential Personal Care Services Store Size Barber Shops $ 33,000 Beauty Shops 5,453,000 Nail Salons 396,000 Diet & Weight Reducing Services 353,000 Other Personal Care Services 782,000 Drycleaning & Laundry Services 190 Coin -Operated Laundries & Drycleaners $ 161,000 Drycleaning & Laundry Services (except coin -op.) 519,000 Other Personal Services 3,600 Child Day Care Services $ 6,436,000 Funeral Homes & Funeral Services 1,724,000 Photographic Services 13,628,000 Photographic Studios 1,293,000 Veteranarian Services 4,834,000 Pet Care 552,000 Rental and Leasing $ 60 Formalwear and Costume Rental $ 209,000 Video Tape and Disc Rental 1,355,000 Recreation 3,460 Bowling Centers $ 1,014,000 Physical Fitness Facilites 4,836,000 Golf Courses and Country Clubs 3,658,000 Professional Services 7,495 Offices of Real Estate Agents & Brokers $ 7,425,000 Household Goods Repair N/A Home & Garden Equipment & Appliance Repair &Main $ 453,000 Reupholstery & Furniture Repair 258,000 Footwear and Leather Goods Repair 49,000 Watch, Clock and Jewelry Repair 61,000 Garment Repair and Alteration Services 160,000 Automotive Repair and Maintenance 2,550 General Automotive Repair $ 8,802,000 Automotive Exhaust System Repair 122,000 Automotive Transmission Repair 466,000 Brake, Front End & Wheel Alignment 111,000 Electrical Repair Shops, Motor Vehicle 49,000 Paint or Body Repair Shops 5,265,000 Automotive Glass Replacement 1,041,000 Automotive Oil Change & Lubrication Shops 906,000 Carwashes 1,127,000 Sales Supportable Store Size Per Sq. Ft. Square Feet Low Median High $ 200 165 455 788 1,422 190 28,700 900 1,400 3,480 110 3,600 773 1,200 1,807 150 2,353 1,223 1,856 3,130 175 4,469 703 1,488 4,128 $ 60 2,683 1,222 2,024 3,734 150 3,460 1,038 1,608 2,731 $100 64,360 3,059 5,050 7,495 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 275 49,556 990 1,866 2,550 275 4,702 990 1,866 2,550 225 21,484 1,346 2,122 2,701 75 7,360 1,200 $ 365 573 763 1,046 1,773 200 6,775 3,740 5,836 7,341 $ 110 9,218 N/A N/A N/A 80 60,450 1,433 6,448 32,170 N/A 0 $ 300 24,750 711 2,092 6,264 $ 175 2,589 155 1,665 600 155 316 405 648 742 155 394 900 125 1,280 680 1,185 1,488 $ 200 44,010 2,400 6,200 10,624 200 610 200 2,330 200 555 200 245 200 26,325 200 5,205 200 4,530 200 5,635 Table E-2 (continued) MONTICELLO SERVICES SALES POTENTIAL AND SUPPORTABLE SQUARE FEET, 2010 BY SERVICES CATEGORY Category Estimated Sales Potential Health Care Store Size Offices of Physicians Per Sq. Ft. Offices of Physicians (except mental health specialists) $47,188,000 Offices of Physicians, Mental Health Specialists 429,000 Offices of Dentists 21,066,000 Offices of Other Health Practitioners $ 357 Offices of Chiropractors 3,041,000 Offices of Optometrists 1,388,000 Offices of Mental Health Practitioners (except physicians) 1,565,000 Offices of Physical, Occup, & Speech Therapists & Audiologists 1,800 Speech Therapist & Audiologists 165,000 Physical & Occupational Therapists 2,622,000 Offices of All Other Health Practitioners 3,970 Offices of Podiatrists 254,000 Offices of All Other Misc. Health Practitioners 1,146,000 Outpatient Care Centers 415 Outpatient Mental Health & Substance Abuse Centers $ 2,105,000 Other Outpatient Care Centers 4,347 Kidney Dialysis Centers 2,126,000 All Other Outpatient Care Centers 4,066,000 Home Health Care Services 9,012,000 Source: McComb Group, Ltd. 1,090 Sales Supportable Store Size Per Sq. Ft. Square Feet Low Median High $ 357 132,179 969 1,652 4,008 357 1,202 969 1,800 4,008 345 61,061 1,090 1,700 3,970 345 8,814 1,090 1,600 3,970 415 3,345 1,074 1,620 4,347 345 4,536 1,090 1,800 3,970 345 478 1,090 1,600 3,970 345 7,600 1,090 1,600 3,970 357 711 1,090 1,800 3,970 345 3,322 1,090 1,800 3,970 $ 250 8,420 285 7,460 285 14,267 285 31,621 Table E-2 (continued) MONTICELLO SERVICES SALES POTENTIAL AND SUPPORTABLE SQUARE FEET, 2015 BY SERVICES CATEGORY Category Estimated Sales Potential Personal Care Services Store Size Barber Shops $ 40,000 Beauty Shops 6,647,000 Nail Salons 484,000 Diet & Weight Reducing Services 429,000 Other Personal Care Services 953,000 Drycleaning & Laundry Services 190 Coin -Operated Laundries & Drycleaners $ 196,000 Drycleaning & Laundry Services (except coin -op.) 633,000 Other Personal Services 4,400 Child Day Care Services $ 7,845,000 Funeral Homes & Funeral Services 2,101,000 Photographic Services 16,609,000 Photographic Studios 1,575,000 Veteranarian Services 5,892,000 Pet Care 673,000 Rental and Leasing $ 60 Formalwear and Costume Rental $ 255,000 Video Tape and Disc Rental 1,652,000 Recreation 4,220 Bowling Centers $ 1,235,000 Physical Fitness Facilites 5,895,000 Golf Courses and Country Clubs 4,458,000 Professional Services 7,495 Offices of Real Estate Agents & Brokers $ 9,049,000 Household Goods Repair N/A Home & Garden Equipment & Appliance Repair &Mai $ 553,000 Reupholstery & Furniture Repair 314,000 Footwear and Leather Goods Repair 60,000 Watch, Clock and Jewelry Repair 75,000 Garment Repair and Alteration Services 194,000 Automotive Repair and Maintenance 2,550 General Automotive Repair $10,728,000 Automotive Exhaust System Repair 149,000 Automotive Transmission Repair 567,000 Brake, Front End & Wheel Alignment 134,000 Electrical Repair Shops, Motor Vehicle 60,000 Paint or Body Repair Shops 6,416,000 Automotive Glass Replacement 1,268,000 Automotive Oil Change & Lubrication Shops 1,105,000 Carwashes 1,373,000 Sales Supportable Store Size Per Sq. Ft. Square Feet Low Median High $ 200 200 455 788 1,422 190 34,984 900 1,400 3,480 110 4,400 773 1,200 1,807 150 2,860 1,223 1,856 3,130 175 5,446 703 1,488 4,128 $ 60 3,267 1,222 2,024 3,734 150 4,220 1,038 1,608 2,731 $ 100 78,450 3,059 5,050 7,495 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 275 60,396 990 1,866 2,550 275 5,727 990 1,866 2,550 225 26,187 1,346 2,122 2,701 75 8,973 1,200 $ 365 699 763 1,046 1,773 200 8,260 3,740 5,836 7,341 $ 110 11,227 N/A N/A N/A 80 73,688 1,433 6,448 32,170 N/A 0 $ 300 $ 175 155 155 155 175 $ 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 30,163 711 3,160 2,026 387 484 1,109 53,640 745 2,835 670 300 32,080 6,340 5,525 6,865 405 680 2,400 2,092 6,264 600 648 742 900 1,185 1,488 6,200 10,624 Table E-2 (continued) MONTICELLO SERVICES SALES POTENTIAL AND SUPPORTABLE SQUARE FEET, 2015 BY SERVICES CATEGORY Category Estimated Sales Potential Health Care Store Size Offices of Physicians Per Sq. Ft. Offices of Physicians (except mental health specialists) $57,514,000 Offices of Physicians, Mental Health Specialists 524,000 Offices of Dentists 25,675,000 Offices of Other Health Practitioners $ 357 Offices of Chiropractors 3,706,000 Offices of Optometrists 1,692,000 Offices of Mental Health Practitioners (except physicians) 1,907,000 Offices of Physical, Occup, & Speech Therapists & Audiologists 1,800 Speech Therapist & Audiologists 201,000 Physical & Occupational Therapists 3,196,000 Offices of All Other Health Practitioners 3,970 Offices of Podiatrists 308,000 Offices of All Other Misc. Health Practitioners 1,396,000 Outpatient Care Centers 415 Outpatient Mental Health & Substance Abuse Centers $ 2,565,000 Other Outpatient Care Centers 4,347 Kidney Dialysis Centers 2,592,000 All Other Outpatient Care Centers 4,955,000 Home Health Care Services 10,985,000 Source: McComb Group, Ltd. 1,090 Sales Supportable Store Size Per Sq. Ft. Square Feet Low Median High $ 357 161,104 969 1,652 4,008 357 1,468 969 1,800 4,008 345 74,420 1,090 1,700 3,970 345 10,742 1,090 1,600 3,970 415 4,077 1,074 1,620 4,347 345 5,528 1,090 1,800 3,970 345 583 1,090 1,600 3,970 345 9,264 1,090 1,600 3,970 357 863 1,090 1,800 3,970 345 4,046 1,090 1,800 3,970 $ 250 10,260 285 9,095 285 17,386 285 38,544 Table E-2 (continued) MONTICELLO SERVICES SALES POTENTIAL AND SUPPORTABLE SQUARE FEET, 2020 BY SERVICES CATEGORY Sales Supportable Per Sq. Ft. Square Feet $ 200 Estimated 190 Sales Category Potential Personal Care Services 3,453 Barber Shops $ 48,000 Beauty Shops 8,004,000 Nail Salons 582,000 Diet & Weight Reducing Services 518,000 Other Personal Care Services 1,148,000 Drycleaning & Laundry Services 72,724 Coin -Operated Laundries & Drycleaners $ 238,000 Drycleaning & Laundry Services (except coin -op.) 761,000 Other Personal Services 10,813 Child Day Care Services $ 9,446,000 Funeral Homes & Funeral Services 2,529,000 Photographic Services 19,999,000 Photographic Studios 1,898,000 Veteranarian Services 7,094,000 Pet Care 811,000 Rental and Leasing Formalwear and Costume Rental $ 307,000 Video Tape and Disc Rental 1,988,000 Recreation Bowling Centers $ 1,488,000 Physical Fitness Facilites 7,098,000 Golf Courses and Country Clubs 5,368,000 Professional Services Offices of Real Estate Agents & Brokers $10,896,000 Household Goods Repair Home & Garden Equipment & Appliance Repair &Mai $ 665,000 Reupholstery & Furniture Repair 378,000 Footwear and Leather Goods Repair 72,000 Watch, Clock and Jewelry Repair 91,000 Garment Repair and Alteration Services 234,000 Automotive Repair and Maintenance General Automotive Repair $12,918,000 Automotive Exhaust System Repair 180,000 Automotive Transmission Repair 684,000 Brake, Front End & Wheel Alignment 162,000 Electrical Repair Shops, Motor Vehicle 72,000 Paint or Body Repair Shops 7,725,000 Automotive Glass Replacement 1,527,000 Automotive Oil Change & Lubrication Shops 1,329,000 Carwashes 1,653,000 Sales Supportable Per Sq. Ft. Square Feet $ 200 240 190 42,126 110 5,291 150 3,453 175 6,560 $ 60 3,967 150 5,073 $ 100 94,460 N/A N/A 275 72,724 275 6,902 225 31,529 75 10,813 Low 455 900 773 1,223 703 1,222 1,038 3,059 N/A 990 990 1,346 $ 365 841 763 200 9,940 3,740 $ 110 13,527 N/A 80 88,725 1,433 N/A 0 1,608 $ 300 36,320 $ 175 3,800 155 2,439 155 465 155 587 175 1,337 $ 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 64,590 900 3,420 810 360 38,625 7,635 6,645 8,265 Store Size Median High 788 1,422 1,400 3,480 1,200 1,807 1,856 3,130 1,488 4,128 2,024 3,734 1,608 2,731 5,050 7,495 N/A N/A 1,866 2,550 1,866 2,550 2,122 2,701 1,200 1,046 1,773 5,836 7,341 N/A N/A 6,448 32,170 711 2,092 6,264 600 405 648 742 900 680 1,185 1,488 2,400 6,200 10,624 Table E-2 (continued) MONTICELLO SERVICES SALES POTENTIAL AND SUPPORTABLE SQUARE FEET, 2020 BY SERVICES CATEGORY Category Estimated Sales Potential Health Care Store Size Offices of Physicians Per Sq. Ft. Offices of Physicians (except mental health specialists) $69,249,000 Offices of Physicians, Mental Health Specialists 631,000 Offices of Dentists 30,914,000 Offices of Other Health Practitioners $ 357 Offices of Chiropractors 4,462,000 Offices of Optometrists 2,038,000 Offices of Mental Health Practitioners (except physicians) 2,296,000 Offices of Physical, Occup, & Speech Therapists & Audiologists 1,800 Speech Therapist & Audiologists 242,000 Physical & Occupational Therapists 3,848,000 Offices of All Other Health Practitioners 3,970 Offices of Podiatrists 372,000 Offices of All Other Misc. Health Practitioners 1,681,000 Outpatient Care Centers 415 Outpatient Mental Health & Substance Abuse Centers $ 3,088,000 Other Outpatient Care Centers 4,347 Kidney Dialysis Centers 3,120,000 All Other Outpatient Care Centers 5,966,000 Home Health Care Services 13,226,000 Source: McComb Group, Ltd. 1,090 Sales Supportable Store Size Per Sq. Ft. Square Feet Low Median High $ 357 193,975 969 1,652 4,008 357 1,768 969 1,800 4,008 345 89,606 1,090 1,700 3,970 345 12,933 1,090 1,600 3,970 415 4,911 1,074 1,620 4,347 345 6,655 1,090 1,800 3,970 345 701 1,090 1,600 3,970 345 11,154 1,090 1,600 3,970 357 1,042 1,090 1,800 3,970 345 4,872 1,090 1,800 3,970 $ 250 12,352 285 10,947 285 20,933 285 46,407 Table E-2 (continued) MONTICELLO SERVICES SALES POTENTIAL AND SUPPORTABLE SQUARE FEET, 2025 BY SERVICES CATEGORY Sales Estimated Per Sq. Ft. Sales Category Potential Personal Care Services 50,221 Barber Shops $ 58,000 Beauty Shops 9,542,000 Nail Salons 694,000 Diet & Weight Reducing Services 616,000 Other Personal Care Services 1,368,000 Drycleaning & Laundry Services 112,620 Coin -Operated Laundries & Drycleaners $ 282,000 Drycleaning & Laundry Services (except coin -op.) 908,000 Other Personal Services 8,225 Child Day Care Services $11,262,000 Funeral Homes & Funeral Services 3,016,000 Photographic Services 23,845,000 Photographic Studios 2,262,000 Veteranarian Services 8,459,000 Pet Care 966,000 Rental and Leasing Formalwear and Costume Rental $ 366,000 Video Tape and Disc Rental 2,372,000 Recreation Bowling Centers $ 1,774,000 Physical Fitness Facilites 8,464,000 Golf Courses and Country Clubs 6,401,000 Professional Services Offices of Real Estate Agents & Brokers $12,992,000 Household Goods Repair Home & Garden Equipment & Appliance Repair &Mai $ 793,000 Reupholstery & Furniture Repair 451,000 Footwear and Leather Goods Repair 86,000 Watch, Clock and Jewelry Repair 107,000 Garment Repair and Alteration Services 279,000 Automotive Repair and Maintenance General Automotive Repair $15,401,000 Automotive Exhaust System Repair 214,000 Automotive Transmission Repair 814,000 Brake, Front End & Wheel Alignment 193,000 Electrical Repair Shops, Motor Vehicle 86,000 Paint or Body Repair Shops 9,211,000 Automotive Glass Replacement 1,821,000 Automotive Oil Change & Lubrication Shops 1,586,000 Carwashes 1,971,000 Sales Supportable Per Sq. Ft. Square Feet $ 200 290 190 50,221 110 6,309 150 4,107 175 7,817 $ 60 4,700 150 6,053 $ 100 112,620 N/A N/A 275 86,709 275 8,225 225 37,596 75 12,880 Low 455 900 773 1,223 703 1,222 1,038 3,059 N/A 990 990 1,346 $ 365 1,003 763 200 11,860 3,740 $ 110 16,127 N/A 80 105,800 1,433 N/A 0 1,608 $ 300 43,307 $ 175 4,531 155 2,910 155 555 155 690 175 1,594 $ 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 77,005 1,070 4,070 965 430 46,055 9,105 7,930 9,855 Store Size Median High 788 1,422 1,400 3,480 1,200 1,807 1,856 3,130 1,488 4,128 2,024 3,734 1,608 2,731 5,050 7,495 N/A N/A 1,866 2,550 1,866 2,550 2,122 2,701 1,200 1,046 1,773 5,836 7,341 N/A N/A 6,448 32,170 711 2,092 6,264 600 405 648 742 900 680 1,185 1,488 2,400 6,200 10,624 Table E-2 (continued) MONTICELLO SERVICES SALES POTENTIAL AND SUPPORTABLE SQUARE FEET, 2025 BY SERVICES CATEGORY Estimated Sales Sales Supportable Store Size Category Potential Per Sq. Ft. Square Feet Low Median High Health Care Offices of Physicians Offices of Physicians (except mental health specialists) $82,568,000 $ 357 231,283 969 1,652 4,008 Offices of Physicians, Mental Health Specialists 752,000 357 2,106 969 1,800 4,008 Offices of Dentists 36,860,000 345 106,841 1,090 1,700 3,970 Offices of Other Health Practitioners Offices of Chiropractors 5,321,000 345 15,423 1,090 1,600 3,970 Offices of Optometrists 2,429,000 415 5,853 1,074 1,620 4,347 Offices of Mental Health Practitioners (except physicians) 2,738,000 345 7,936 1,090 1,800 3,970 Offices of Physical, Occup, & Speech Therapists & Audiologists Speech Therapist & Audiologists 289,000 345 838 1,090 1,600 3,970 Physical & Occupational Therapists 4,588,000 345 13,299 1,090 1,600 3,970 Offices of All Other Health Practitioners Offices of Podiatrists 444,000 357 1,244 1,090 1,800 3,970 Offices of All Other Misc. Health Practitioners 2,005,000 345 5,812 1,090 1,800 3,970 Outpatient Care Centers Outpatient Mental Health & Substance Abuse Centers $ 3,682,000 $ 250 14,728 Other Outpatient Care Centers Kidney Dialysis Centers 3,721,000 285 13,056 All Other Outpatient Care Centers 7,114,000 285 24,961 Home Health Care Services 15,769,000 285 55,330 Source: McComb Group, Ltd. Table E-2 (continued) MONTICELLO SERVICES SALES POTENTIAL AND SUPPORTABLE SQUARE FEET, 2030 BY SERVICES CATEGORY Category Estimated Sales Potential Personal Care Services Per Sq. Ft. Barber Shops $ 69,000 Beauty Shops 11,322,000 Nail Salons 824,000 Diet & Weight Reducing Services 732,000 Other Personal Care Services 1,625,000 Drycleaning & Laundry Services 150 Coin -Operated Laundries & Drycleaners $ 335,000 Drycleaning & Laundry Services (except coin -op.) 1,078,000 Other Personal Services $ 60 Child Day Care Services $13,364,000 Funeral Homes & Funeral Services 3,579,000 Photographic Services 28,292,000 Photographic Studios 2,684,000 Veteranarian Services 10,036,000 Pet Care 1,146,000 Rental and Leasing 990 Formalwear and Costume Rental $ 434,000 Video Tape and Disc Rental 2,813,000 Recreation 1,346 Bowling Centers $ 2,105,000 Physical Fitness Facilites 10,041,000 Golf Courses and Country Clubs 7,594,000 Professional Services 14,065 Offices of Real Estate Agents & Brokers $15,414,000 Household Goods Repair N/A Home & Garden Equipment & Appliance Repair &Mai $ 941,000 Reupholstery & Furniture Repair 534,000 Footwear and Leather Goods Repair 102,000 Watch, Clock and Jewelry Repair 127,000 Garment Repair and Alteration Services 331,000 Automotive Repair and Maintenance 5,377 General Automotive Repair $18,274,000 Automotive Exhaust System Repair 254,000 Automotive Transmission Repair 966,000 Brake, Front End & Wheel Alignment 229,000 Electrical Repair Shops, Motor Vehicle 102,000 Paint or Body Repair Shops 10,928,000 Automotive Glass Replacement 2,160,000 Automotive Oil Change & Lubrication Shops 1,881,000 Carwashes 2,339,000 Sales Supportable 788 Per Sq. Ft. Square Feet Low $ 200 345 455 190 59,589 900 110 7,491 773 150 4,880 1,223 175 9,286 703 $ 60 5,583 1,222 150 7,187 1,038 $ 100 133,640 3,059 N/A N/A N/A 275 102,880 990 275 9,760 990 225 44,604 1,346 75 15,280 $ 365 1,189 763 200 14,065 3,740 $ 110 19,136 N/A 80 125,513 1,433 N/A 0 $ 300 51,380 711 $ 175 5,377 155 3,445 155 658 405 155 819 175 1,891 680 $ 200 91,370 2,400 200 1,270 200 4,830 200 1,145 200 510 200 54,640 200 10,800 200 9,405 200 11,695 Store Size Median High 788 1,422 1,400 3,480 1,200 1,807 1,856 3,130 1,488 4,128 2,024 3,734 1,608 2,731 5,050 7,495 N/A N/A 1,866 2,550 1,866 2,550 2,122 2,701 1,200 1,046 1,773 5,836 7,341 N/A N/A 6,448 32,170 2,092 6,264 600 648 742 900 1,185 1,488 6,200 10,624 Table E-2 (continued) MONTICELLO SERVICES SALES POTENTIAL AND SUPPORTABLE SQUARE FEET, 2030 BY SERVICES CATEGORY Estimated Sales Sales Supportable Store Size Category Potential Per Sq. Ft. Square Feet Low Median High Health Care Offices of Physicians Offices of Physicians (except mental health specialists) $97,967,000 $ 357 274,417 969 1,652 4,008 Offices of Physicians, Mental Health Specialists 892,000 357 2,499 969 1,800 4,008 Offices of Dentists 43,734,000 345 126,765 1,090 1,700 3,970 Offices of Other Health Practitioners Offices of Chiropractors 6,313,000 345 18,299 1,090 1,600 3,970 Offices of Optometrists 2,882,000 415 6,945 1,074 1,620 4,347 Offices of Mental Health Practitioners (except physicians) 3,248,000 345 9,414 1,090 1,800 3,970 Offices of Physical, Occup, & Speech Therapists & Audiologists Speech Therapist & Audiologists 344,000 345 997 1,090 1,600 3,970 Physical & Occupational Therapists 5,444,000 345 15,780 1,090 1,600 3,970 Offices of All Other Health Practitioners Offices of Podiatrists 526,000 357 1,473 1,090 1,800 3,970 Offices of All Other Misc. Health Practitioners 2,379,000 345 6,896 1,090 1,800 3,970 Outpatient Care Centers Outpatient Mental Health & Substance Abuse Centers $ 4,368,000 $ 250 17,472 Other Outpatient Care Centers Kidney Dialysis Centers 4,415,000 285 15,491 All Other Outpatient Care Centers 8,440,000 285 29,614 Home Health Care Services 18,711,000 285 65,653 Source: McComb Group, Ltd. DOWNTOWN MONTICELLO OFFICE MARKET AND MULTI -FAMILY Prepared for City of Monticello October 2011 010 MCCON M GROUP,Ltd. ❑ ❑ AESO D N S U LTA N T RETAIL C S DOWNTOWN MONTICELLO OFFICE MARKET AND MULTI -FAMILY Prepared for City of Monticello Prepared by McComb Group, Ltd. October 2011 ©Copyright 2011 McComb Group, Ltd. TABLE OF CONTENTS Chapter Subject Page INTRODUCTION.................................................................................................. ii ReportPurpose........................................................................................................ ii 1 MONTICELLO OFFICE MARKET................................................................... 1-1 OfficeDevelopment............................................................................................. 1-2 Vacancy................................................................................................................ 1-3 Employment......................................................................................................... 1-4 RentalRates......................................................................................................... 1-4 Summary.............................................................................................................. 1-4 2 MULTI -FAMILY HOUSING............................................................................. 2-1 LIST OF TABLES Table Title Page 1-1 Monticello Office Buildings................................................................................1-2 1-2 Monticello Commercial Office Space................................................................. 1-2 1-3 Monticello Office Market....................................................................................1-3 1-4 Monticello Office Inclined Employment Categories ........................................... 1-3 2-1 Downtown Monticello Apartments...................................................................... 2-2 LIST OF MAPS Map Title Page 1-1 Monticello Office and Medical Buildings........................................................... 1-1 2-1 Downtown Monticello Rental Housing............................................................... 2-1 1 INTRODUCTION This report was prepared for the City of Monticello by McComb Group, Ltd. and its subcontractor Economic Development Services, Inc. This report contains the downtown office market research and multi -family findings. Work tasks conducted during this engagement are summarized below. ♦ Existing office buildings in downtown Monticello were identified and surveyed to determine rentable area, occupied space, vacant space, rental rates, operating expenses, and property taxes. Historic office absorption in downtown Monticello was determined by type of office space. ♦ Brokers active in downtown Monticello were interviewed to determine their impressions on demand for retail and office space in downtown, the types of tenants seeking space, and the type of space they are looking for, as well as the strengths and weaknesses of downtown compared to other competitive office areas. ♦ Office buildings that are competitive with downtown Monticello were identified and surveyed. Information gathered includes rentable area, net or gross rent, expenses, and property taxes. ♦ Historic office absorption in downtown and other parts of Monticello was quantified and downtown's market share determined. ♦ Business and employment categories typically associated with commercial office space for the City of Monticello area were identified and evaluated to determine the historic growth of office -type employment categories. Monticello's share of office -type employment was correlated with historic office absorption. ♦ Future demand in downtown Monticello for office space and square feet of annual absorption was estimated. ♦ The appropriate role and location of housing in downtown Monticello was evaluated. Report Purpose This report was prepared in accordance with our contract dated September 10, 2010. This report was prepared with the understanding that the results of our work will be used by the client to determine market demand for additional development in downtown Monticello. Our report was prepared for that purpose and is subject to the following qualifications: • Our analysis did not ascertain the legal and regulatory requirements applicable to this project including zoning, other state, and local government regulations, permits, and licenses. No effort was made to determine the possible effect on the proposed project ii of present or future federal, state, or local legislation, or any environmental or ecological matters. • Our report and analysis was based on estimates, assumptions and other information developed from research of the market, knowledge of the industry and discussions with the client. Some assumptions inevitably will not materialize and unanticipated events and circumstances may occur; therefore, actual results achieved will vary from the analysis. • Our analysis did not evaluate management's effectiveness nor are we responsible for future marketing efforts and other management actions upon which actual results are dependent. Our report is intended solely for the purpose described above and should not be used for any other purpose without our prior written permission. Permission for other use of the report will be granted only upon meeting company standards for the proposed use. iii Chapter 1 MONTICELLO OFFICE MARKET Monticello commercial office buildings are generally located in downtown or south of I-94. Office building names and locations are shown on Map 1-1; and date constructed, size, and vacancy are contained in Table 1-1. Map 1-1 MONTICELLO OFFICE AND MEDICAL BUILDINGS 9 \ Office Buildings 0 0-1 02 0-5 OA N scala: l'=0.%mlBs � . ys 200 Bvmdway W Times Building — &oadvay Partners Cedamew Office Suites Walnut Plaza ■ 741 E Broadway Cdonial Courl Prairie Professimal Cenrce TDS --- i Cedar Cwrl Offices Qy� Law Once -■ New River Professional Building ■ !1�Central hinnesore Mental Health Center �■ ` J! Monticello Clinic J rr,X" ��f y_r CPG d� 206 Chelsea Road \ Fallon Avenue Once Building Dundas Rd W Premier Bank BuAding o -- r:a:re Edge Professional Cenler ; Professimal Business Park l 1 •� i Copyright2011 McComb Group, Ltd. 10/25/11 Downtown contains over 70,000 square feet or about 60 percent of Monticello's total office space of 114,200 square feet. Most of the downtown office space was constructed prior to 1980. More recently, office development has shifted to locations south of I-94. Office development between 1999 and 2009 totaled 50,381 square feet: 43,781 square feet south of I-94 and 6,600 square feet downtown. Office buildings in Monticello tend to be small, less than 10,000 square feet. Only three buildings are larger than 10,000 square feet. Medical office space is concentrated in the East Broadway area and totals about 106,000 square feet. 1-1 Table 1-1 MONTICELLO OFFICE BUILDINGS Source: Wright County, City ofMonticello, Internet Research and MNCAR Office Development Monticello has 114,200 square feet of commercial office space, as shown in Table 1-2. During the period 1950 to 1989, office development was concentrated in downtown. The largest amount of office space, 24,704 square feet, was developed in the 60's. By the turn -of -the -century, office development had shifted to south of I-94. Of the 50,381 square feet of space developed between 1999 and 2009, 86 percent was located south of I-94. During this period, office development averaged about 4,500 square feet per year. Table 1-2 MONTICELLO COMMERCIAL OFFICE SPACE (Square Feet) Year Building Vacant Name Built Sq. Ft. Sq. Ft. % Vacant DOWNTOWN 4,800 1960-1969 24,704 200 Broadway W 1886 3,900 800 20.5 % 141 Broadway E 1936 6,100 3,000 49.2 Cedarview Office Suites 1953 4,800 2,000 41.7 Walnut Plaza 1960 6,820 1,900 27.9 Colonial Court 1961 5,884 110 1.9 TDS 1967 12,000 E - - Times Building 1973 3,721 3,721 100.0 Cedar Court Offices 1978 5,600 E 1,400 25.0 Broadway Partners 1983 6,900 - - Prairie Professional Centre 2004 6,600 1,000 15.2 Law Office NA 8,096 - - Subtotal 70,421 13,931 19.8 % SOUTH 206 Chelsea Road 1999 6,000 1,800 30.0 % Premier Bank Building 2005 10,281 6,880 66.9 Fallon Avenue Office Building 2005 20,000 6,229 31.1 Prairie Edge Professional Center 2006 1,100 Professional Business Park 2009 6,400 1,400 21.9 Subtotal 43,781 16,309 37.3 % EAST AREA Central Minnesota Mental Health Center 1969 14,136 New River Professional Building 1983 36,400 Monticello Clinic 2006 55,400 Subtotal 105,936 Source: Wright County, City ofMonticello, Internet Research and MNCAR Office Development Monticello has 114,200 square feet of commercial office space, as shown in Table 1-2. During the period 1950 to 1989, office development was concentrated in downtown. The largest amount of office space, 24,704 square feet, was developed in the 60's. By the turn -of -the -century, office development had shifted to south of I-94. Of the 50,381 square feet of space developed between 1999 and 2009, 86 percent was located south of I-94. During this period, office development averaged about 4,500 square feet per year. Table 1-2 MONTICELLO COMMERCIAL OFFICE SPACE (Square Feet) Source: Wright County, CityofMonticello, Internet Research and MNCAR 1-2 Downtown South Total Prior to 1950 10,000 10,000 1950-1959 4,800 4,800 1960-1969 24,704 24,704 1970-1979 9,321 9,321 1980-1989 6,900 6,900 1990-1999 6,000 6,000 2000-2009 6,600 37,781 44,381 Unknown 8,096 8,096 70,421 43,781 114,202 Source: Wright County, CityofMonticello, Internet Research and MNCAR 1-2 Vacancy Vacant space was identified in eight downtown buildings and four of the five buildings south of I-94. Downtown vacant space was about 13,900 square feet or 19.8 percent. Vacant office space south of I-94 was 16,309 square feet or 37.3 percent. Vacant commercial office space in Monticello totals about 30,200 square feet. Taking this vacancy into consideration, Monticello absorbed an average of 3,000 square feet of office space in the 11 -year period 1999 to 2009. Assuming a normal vacancy rate of 10 percent (11,400 square feet) leaves excess vacancy of 18,800 square feet. With annual absorption of about 3,000 square feet, Monticello has about a six-year supply of vacant space. Much of the office space, however, is in small buildings of B and C quality and may not meet the needs of future office tenants. Table 1-3 MONTICELLO OFFICE MARKET (Square Feet) Category Downtown South Total Total Space 70,421 43,781 114,202 Occupied Space 56,490 27,472 83,962 Vacant Space 13,931 16,309 30,240 Vacancy Rate 19.8 % 37.3 % 26.5 % Development 1999-2009 6,000 43,781 49,781 Indicated Absorption 5,000 27,472 32,472 Annual Absorption 454 2,497 2,951 Source: McCombGroup,Ltd Employment Office inclined employment categories for Monticello are contained in Tablel-4 for 2000 to 2009, the latest year available. Employment in professional and technical services and management of companies and enterprises was only reported in 2009. Without the 176 reported for these categories, 2009 employment, consistent with the previous years, was 989 resulting in a generally declining trend since 2000. Communities with expanding office market generally have growing employment in office inclined employment. Table 1-4 MONTICELLO OFFICE INCLINED EMPLOYMENT CATEGORIES 2000 TO 2009 Industry 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Information 90 90 86 78 95 59 30 82 75 71 Financial Activities 163 168 186 191 177 182 188 186 190 177 Finance and Insurance 121 127 145 145 128 134 134 132 157 149 Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 42 41 41 46 50 48 53 53 32 27 Professional and Business Services 778 545 523 513 473 470 485 513 393 371 Professional and Technical Services 97 Management of Companies and Enterprises 79 Administrative and Waste Services 395 382 365 354 292 309 327 344 216 194 Total 1,589 1,353 1,346 1,327 1,215 1,202 1,217 1,310 1,063 1,165 Source: Minnesota Department o fEmployment and Economic Development 1-3 Rental Rates Asking net rents for office space in downtown Monticello range from $6.00 to $15.00 per square foot with considerable weakness at the upper end of the price range due to the weak economy. The high level of vacancy makes it difficult to maintain net rent. Combined common area maintenance (CAM) and property taxes range from $3.00 to $3.75 per square foot. Two office buildings south of I-94 were asking $12.00 per square foot net. CAM and taxes are about $6.00 reflecting newer buildings. Summary Annual office absorption of about 3,000 square feet per year is not sufficient to support much office space development. This is why most of Monticello's buildings are less than 10,000 square feet. Recent trends in office inclined employment have been declining, which is consistent with office vacancy rates and pressure on net rent rates. The typical demand creators for office space are new business and/or existing business that are expanding and need more space. Implementation of redevelopment in downtown Monticello will require relocation of office tenants which will need new office. It would be good to retain these firms in downtown. Monticello should seek to attract new businesses that will need office space to fill existing vacancy and create demand for new office buildings. Since new buildings require higher rents to cover development costs, this could result in increased market rents and increased returns to building owners. 1-4 Chapter 2 MULTI FAMILY HOUSING The downtown Monticello study area contains 17 apartment buildings with 393 units, as shown on Map 2-1. The study area was divided into two segments, north, and south of 4th Street. Map 2-1 DOWNTOWN MONTICELLO RENTAL HOUSING ®Ccpyrigh[ 2011 McComb Group, Ltd. 10/20/11 Seven multi -family buildings in the north segment contain 108 units, as shown in Table 2-1. Three of the buildings (Broadway Square, Park Place, and Landmark Square) are of recent vintage and contain 47 units. The other units are older, many located above ground floor retail. These older buildings located along Broadway may be replaced by future redevelopment. Landmark Square, a recent retail/residential mixed-use building, is expected to remain. Multi -family buildings in the south segment are generally separated from the downtown commercial area and are located in/or adjacent to residential areas. This area has ten buildings with 285 units in buildings that range in size from 12 to 48 units. These buildings are not likely to be affected by future downtown redevelopment. 2-1 Table 2-1 DOWNTOWN MONTICELLO APARTMENTS Name Address Units North Study Area Broadway Square 249 Broadway W 28 Cornerstone 154 Broadway W 3 Hammer 154 Broadway E 15 Landmark Square 254 Broadway W 11 Park Place 11 Walnut St 8 River Park View 218 River St W 31 Smith & Assoc 200 Broadway W 12 Subtotal 307 7th St E 108 South Study Area Cedar Crest 406 Cedar St 36 Hillside I 207 7th St E 24 Hillside II 301 7th St E 24 Marywood 407 7th St E 24 Monticello Manor 306 6th St W 12 Ridgemont 716 Maple St 48 Ridgeway 330 6th St W 44 Silver Crest 307 7th St E 35 Terrace Six 318 6th St W 12 Terrace View 401 7th ST E 26 Subtotal 285 Total 393 Source: City of Monticello. In the future, multi -family housing in downtown as a single building use is unlikely. Mixed use residential above either offices or retail stores may be possible. At the current time, mixed use buildings are not economically viable. In the future, if mixed-use becomes economically viable, these buildings could be considered. Building location and design will need to incorporate the characteristics that lead to successful residential development. 2-2 EDA Agenda: 05/11/22 5. Consideration of DRAFT Integrated Marketing and Communications Plan (IMCP) — Nicole Gaustad, AE2S (JT) A. REFERENCE AND BACKGROUND: The EDA is asked to provide comments to AE2S staff regarding the Draft Integrated Marketing and Communications Plan (IMCP). As a reminder, the Community Energy Transition (CET) Grant funding awarded to the City in March 2021 earmarked $25,000 specifically for marketing activities -tasks. The EDA interviewed AE2S in a January 12, 2022, workshop discussing the format of moving forward with an IMCP. The formal contract with AE2S to conduct research, complete a marketing plan and deliverables including various materials was approved by the EDA during the regular meeting of the same date. In its process of completing a Draft IMCP, AE2S has conducted small group and individual interviews, provided opportunities for online comments and responses to surveys, reviewed various City plans and reports, current and historic marketing materials, and researched local community demographic segments. AE2S staff also recently reviewed the initial Draft report findings and recommendations with the project steering committee. Tracy Hinz is the EDA's representative on the steering committee. Other steering committee members include Marcy Anderson, Chamber of Commerce and IEDC representative Eric Olson, Monticello ISD #882 Superintendent plus City staff. That wide-ranging effort has resulted in the DRAFT IMCP which is attached to this staff report. The schedule to finalize the IMCP is noted below. ✓ Week of May 2"d — IMCP Finalization/Draft Templates ✓ May 6th — Final IMCP in EDA Board Packet ✓ May 11th — Presentation to EDA Board ✓ Week of May 16 - Incorporate any edits from EDA Board meeting/finalize IMCP/Draft templates ✓ Week of May 23 — Deliver final plan and templates Al. Staff Impact: The City Administrator, Community Development Director, City Communications Coordinator, Community & Economic Development Coordinator and the Economic Development Manager have been involved in reviewing the Draft IMCP and providing comments to AE2S staff as needed. A2. Budget Impact: The total cost of the presentation and review of the Draft IMCP is negligible. This review step was included in the contractual work tasks in the agreement entered into between the EDA and AE2S. B. ALTERNATIVE ACTIONS: 1. No motion, this is an opportunity for the EDA to provide feedback to AE2S about the IMCP and the various template materials so that desired changes can be incorporated into the final IMCP and the product deliverables. 2. Motion of other as determined by the EDA. C. STAFF RECOMMENDATION: There is no staff recommendation. The preview of the Draft IMCP provides the EDA with an opportunity to offer comments which can be incorporated into the final IMCP. The goal is that the IMCP can serve as a framework for the EDA and the City's marketing strategies and options over the next several years. As part of the IMCP, a set of template marketing materials aligned to the various target markets -development focuses will also be completed. The suggested templates are listed on pages 90 and 91 in the IMCP document. D. SUPPORTING DATA: A. DRAFT Integrated Marketing and Communications Plan (IMCP) EDA Agenda: 1/24/2024 5A. Economic Development Manager's Report Prepared by: Meeting Date: p Other Business Economic Development Manager 1/24/2024 Reviewed by: Approved by: N/A N/A REFERENCE AND BACKGROUND 1. Prospect List Update: See attached Exhibit A. Date of Contact /22/201 /29/20 128/201 /9/201' t16/203 (20/202 30-22 2/16/2021 3/19/2021 2/28/2022 6/16/2021 6/30/2021 7/29/2021 10/28/2021 2/7/2022 Company Name Business Category Project Description IL Karlsburger Foods Food Products Mfg. Facilty Expansion Project Blitzen Precision Machining Exist Bldg or New Const. Project Nutt Co -Working Space Existing Building Project FSJP Light Mfg -Res. Lab New Construction Project Jaguar Office New Construction Project Panda v3 Service -Child Care New Construction Project TDBBST Industrial New Construction Project Cold Industrial -Warehouse -Di New Construction stri Project Orion Warehouse-Distributi New Construction on Project Emma II Light Ind -Assembly New Construction Project UBAA Child Care Services New Construction or Exist Project Ecosphere Industrial Tech Mfg. New Construction Project BA710 Lt Assem-Distribute IProject Stallion Technology Service Project Shepherd Lt Assembly Distribution III 01/17/2024 0 9 $1,850,000 Concept Stage Building -Facility i Retained lobs New lobs Total Investment Project Status 80,000 sq. ft. 0 21 $12,000,000 20,000 sq. ft. +/- 42 10 to $4,500,000 On Hold Active Search 20,000 sq. ff. 20 4 $1,350,000 12,000 sq. ft. 5,000 sq. ft. 10 $1,200,000 Concept Stage ? ? ? ? Concept Stage 20,000 sq. ft. 0 20+/- $1,400,000 Active Search 22,000 sq. ft. 22 4 $2,700,000 Active Search 10,500 sq. ft. 0 21 $4,100,000 Active Search 10,000 to 15,000 sq. 0 9 $1,850,000 Concept Stage ft. 80,000 sq. ft. 0 21 $12,000,000 Concept Stage 832,500 sq. ft. 0 500 $125,000,000 Active Search 20,000 sq. ff. 0 4 $1,350,000 Active Search 5,000 sq. ft. 0 14 to 19 $2,000,000 Act Search 1,000,000 sq. ft. 0 1122 $85,000,000 Act Search New Construction 6,500 to 7,000 sq. ft 0 10 New Construction 42,000 sq. ft. 40 New Construction 75,000 sq. ft. 75 $650,000 Active Search $3,600,000 Active Search $10,500,000 Active Search PROSPECT LIST 01/17/2024 Date of Contact Company Name Business Category Project Description Building -Facility Retained lobs New lobs Total Investment Project Status 4/28/2022 Project Cougar Precision Machining -Mfg. New Construction 35,000 to 45,000 sq. ft. 38 $4,700,000 Active Search 8/11/2022 Project Sing Precision Machining New Construction 400,000 sq. ft. 0 500 $90,000,000 Active Search 10/28/2022 Project IAG Mfg. New Construction 300,000 sq. ft.? 0 50? $70 to $80,000,000 Active Search 11/9/2022 Project Tea Mfg New Construction 25,000 sq. ft. 55 20 $5,800,000 Active Search 12/13/2022 Project Love Mfg New Construction 250,000 130 $24,000,000 Active Search 4/20/2023 Project Lodge DH1 Lodging -Service New Construction ? ? ? $9,500,000 to $12,500,000 Active Search 4/20/2023 Project Lodge RS2 Lodging Service New Construction ? ? ? $9,500,000 to $12,500,000 Active Search 4/26/2023 Project Lodge DC3 Lodging Service New Construction ? ? ? $9,500,000 to $12,500,000 Active Search 5/30/2023 Project Flower -M &M Commercial Concept Expansion ? ? ? ? Concept 6/9/2023 Project Pez low_ New Construction 6,000 to 8,500 sq. ft. 12 2 $1.300,000 Active Search 7/1/2023 Project V Mfg New Construction 150,000+sq. ft. ? $16,000,000 Active Search 8/16/2023 Project Lodge RT4 Lodging-Hopsitality New Construction ? N/A ? $11,500,000 to $14,500,000 Active Search 8/31/2023 Project Enclave- W300 Industrial - Warehouse- Distr New Construction 300,000 sq. ft. N/A ? $30,000,000 to $34,000,000 Active Search PROSPECT LIST 01/17/2024 Date of Contact Company Name Business Category Project Description Building-Facility Retained lobs New lobs Total Investment Project Status 9/19/2023 Project Panda #4 SZ Childcare Facility New Construction ? N/A ? $2,000,000 +/- Active Search 10/12/2023 Project Fun Entertainment Expansion 2,400 sq. ft. N/A 4 $200,000 Concept 1/17/2024 Project Tex Industrial New Construction 500,000 sq. ft. 0 100 $500,000,000 Active Search 1/17/2024 Project G Industrial New Construction 1,000,000 sq. ft. 0 ? $120,000,000 Focused Search Contacts: M = 06 YTD = 06