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EDA Agenda - 10/08/2025 (Workshop)AGENDA WORKSHOP - ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AUTHORITY (EDA) Wednesday, October 8, 2025 – 4:45 p.m. Academy Room, Monticello Community Center Commissioners: President Steve Johnson, Vice President Jon Morphew, Treasurer Hali Sittig, Rick Barger, Clinton Berglof, Councilmember Tracy Hinz, Mayor Lloyd Hilgart Staff: Executive Director Jim Thares, Rachel Leonard, Angela Schumann, Tyler Bevier, Anne Mueller, Sarah Rathlisberger 1. Call to order 2. Roll Call 3. Direct Housing Aide and Housing Trust Fund Ordinance Review-Discussion 4. Adjournment MonticelloMN.gov OFFICE: 763-295-2711 FAX: 763-295-4404 505 Walnut Street Suite 1 Monticello, MN 55362 10/8/25 EDA WORKSHOP 1. After reviewing the Housing Report, what areas do you think the EDA should focus on for use of the housing trust funds? Examples: Senior affordable housing, affordable general-occupancy housing, single-family home-buyer assistance, single-family energy code rehabilitation (income eligible), interest rate buydown, etc. 2. Guidance from the Minnesota Housing Finance Agency (the reporting agency for the funds) indicates that the initial state housing aid dollars must be committed by December 2026 and spent by December 2027. Given this deadline for initial spending, what programs from above do you think could be implemented most effectively? Please Note: Pending legal review the spending timeline may not be applicable given that the funds have been placed into a Housing Trust Fund. 3. The establishment of the Housing Trust Fund provides a fund location for the state housing dollars and also provides a dedicated fund for future EDA housing activities. Taking a long-term view of possible housing support and programs, is the EDA interested in allocating additional funds annually to the housing trust fund? From what source? (See ordinance for possible eligible sources.) MonticelloMN.gov OFFICE: 763-295-2711 FAX: 763-295-4404 505 Walnut Street Suite 1 Monticello, MN 55362 Considerations: o Like the Downtown Façade Loan Improvement Program, it is likely that the program(s) established for the use of the funds may evolve over time. o Review of current Wright County or other local housing programs to look for leveraging opportunity or gaps will be completed based on the direction of the EDA. o The EDA has 2 housing TIF Districts (Mississippi Shores and St.Ben’s) that offered senior affordable housing. Both have been or will be decertified. Does the EDA want to work with both providers on continuation of affordable units? If so, what is the realistic impact based on the limited funding available? 1. 1-19 Mississippi Shores – This district was decertified in 2023. 2. 1-24 St. Henry’s/St. Ben’s – This district has a required decertification date in 2026. While the PAYGO obligation is satisfied, the district can remain open because Ecumen continues to provide documentation of providing affordable units (“income qualify”). They have no requirement to do so and get no monetary benefit as it simply allows housing TIF to pool in that district for the EDA to use on other qualifying projects. 2023 Housing Needs & Market Demand CITY OF MONTICELLO v Prepared by: This document was prepared by MSA Professional Services, Inc. with assistance from City Staff. Project No.: 13731006 City of Monticello - Economic Development Authority Steve Johnson, President Jon Morphew, Vice President Hali Sittig, Treasurer Rick Barger Olive (Ollie) White Tracy Hinz, Council Representative Lloyd Hilgart, Council Representative Acknowledgements Page intentionally left blank. This Housing Study presents an in-depth look at the City of Monticello’s housing conditions, market, and needs. Though national discourse portrays housing affordability as a universal crisis, we know that every community is unique, having distinct needs dependent upon local economic and social conditions. This study examines these conditions in Monticello, and proposes how housing needs can best be met - especially in the context of a community with pressures for growth. PurPose content O1 INTRODUCTION »Community Basics »Population »Households »Age »Income »Projections Study Process »Affordable Housing »Housing Affordability »Workforce Housing »Who Needs Housing? 47 OWNERSHIP MARKET »Affordability »Tenure »Owner Housing Stress »Consumption »Spatial Affordability »Affordability Trends »Entry-Level Affordability »Availability »Mortgage Status »Unit Types »Size 25 RENTAL MARKET »Affordability »Tenure »Rental Housing Stress »Consumption »Unit Types »Affordability Trends »Cost »Vacancy »Size »Age 71 OTHER MARKET SECTORS »Homelessness »Aging Populations »Disability 79 LOCAL IMPACTS »Assessment »Improvement Value Ratio »Available Lots/Lot Value »Zoning »Development Fees 95 UNIT DEMAND & RECOMMENDATIONS »Ownership Demand »Ownership Recommendations »Rental Demand »Rental Recommendations »Senior Household Demand Page intentionally left blank. 1 Rental Market About Monticello 1 Housing Needs and DemandCity of Monticello 2 úûü úûü úûü S H E R B U R N E C O U N T Y W R I G H T C O U N T Y H E N N E P I N C O U N T Y B I G L A K EBIG L A K E T O W N S H I PTOWNSHIP B U F F A L OBUFFALO T O W N S H I PTOWNSHIP M O N T I C E L L OMONTICELLO T O W N S H I PTOWNSHIP C H A T H A MCHATHAM T O W N S H I PTOWNSHIP L I V O N I ALIVONIA T O W N S H I PTOWNSHIP M A P L E L A K EMAPLE L A K E T O W N S H I PTOWNSHIP O R R O C KORROCK T O W N S H I PTOWNSHIPBECKERBECKER T O W N S H I PTOWNSHIP C L E A R W A T E RCLEARWATER T O W N S H I PTOWNSHIP C O R I N N ACORINNA T O W N S H I PTOWNSHIP C L E A R L A K ECLEAR L A K E T O W N S H I PTOWNSHIP A L B I O NALBION T O W N S H I PTOWNSHIP S I L V E RSILVER C R E E KCREEK T O W N S H I PTOWNSHIP B E C K E R C I T YBECKER C I T Y E L K R I V E RELK R I V E R C I T YCITY M O N T I C E L L OMONTICELLO C I T YCITY B U F F A L O C I T YBUFFALO C I T Y S A I N TSAINT M I C H A E LMICHAEL C I T YCITY O T S E G O C I T YOTSEGO C I T Y A L B E R T V I L L EALBERTVILLE C I T YCITY R O G E R S C I T YROGERS C I T Y B I G L A K EBIG L A K E C I T YCITY !#"94 !#"94 !#"94 !#"94 ./10 ./10 ./10 ./169 Printed By: smorrison, File: \\msa-ps.com\fs\Project\13\13731\13731002\GIS\13731002_RegionalMap_202000802.mxd Print Date: 8/3/2020 Data Sources:Minnesota GIS Data Monticello, Wright County, MN Regional Map úûü Park N Ride Location Transit Routes State Trails Interstate State Road US Highway Rivers and Streams Monticello Surrounding Municipality Monticello Housing Study 0 0.5 1 Miles Monticello Regional Context This study was originally commissioned by the City of Monticello’s Economic Development Authority in May 2020. The plan was updated in 2023 to include changes in the housing market since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. The City has identified housing as a critical issue that needs to be addressed in order to provide opportunity for existing and future residents, and continue to grow the City’s economic and residential base. City leaders have clearly identified these needs based on feedback from various stakeholders, as well as sustained demand that has provided consistent proposals for both greenfield and infill development. The purpose of this study is to expand and revisit the City’s 2020 housing study. This will help the City better understand its housing market and to craft targeted strategies to improve housing options. There are two main components to all municipal housing markets. The first component of this market is all of the housing located in the City of Monticello; the second component is the housing in surrounding communities, many of those homes occupied by people who work or shop in Monticello but who chose to live elsewhere. The housing physically located in Monticello is the easiest to measure and analyze, and is also the market portion that the City has the most control over. Housing outside of Monticello is more difficult to quantify and qualify, but it is nevertheless important to a holistic understanding of the market. This report attempts to document conditions and trends in the overall market, including insight in two key areas: • How much demand exists for what types of housing in the City • General strategies to support housing needs and development in the community Data not updated in 2023 Housing Study. Map does not reflect changes since 2020. 3 About Monticello Project oversight The study was initiated by the City of Monticello Economic Development Authority. A working group of staff in Economic and Community Development regularly provided insight, including review of data and material that comprise this final report. These staff members met with MSA’s project team throughout the project to provide direction to the planning process. interviews In 2020, The planning team met with and interviewed a variety of residents with knowledge and insight into the local housing market, including those who know it best: users of the market themselves. These interviews included realtors, lenders, developers, landlords, employers, and employees. Feedback collected through interviews often naturally gravitated toward similar topics and knowledge, indicating a strong shared understanding of how the local housing market inherently functions. Upon updating this study in 2023, the interviewees from 2020 were contacted once again and feedback was gathered on changes to the housing market in Monticello over the past three years. This feedback is used throughout the report. new AnAlysis A few additional areas of study were incorporated into the 2023 report update. These include: a summary of construction activity in the City since 2020; a comparison of Monticello’s development fees and its regional peers; a closer look at condo and townhome development demand; and updating the unit demand calculations to reflect the impact of constructed and planned units since the last report’s publication. Many tables and charts throughout the report were also updated with the most up to date data available. dAtA notes All American Community Survey (ACS) data in this report utilizes 5-Year Estimates from the most recent US Census Bureau data release, which is the 2017-2021 data vintage. The U.S. Department of Housing & Urban Development (HUD) releases custom tabulations of ACS data annually, known as the HUD Comprehensive Housing Affordability Strategy (CHAS) dataset, that better portrays housing statistics and need. The CHAS dataset is also used throughout this report where appropriate, though due to the custom tabulations releases are slower than typical for normal US Census data products. CHAS data vintage utilized in this report is 2015-2019. CHAS data is used to provide additional insight in certain study components where newer data sources do not provide necessary level of detail. study Process This study uses a variety of methods and data to better understand the housing market. Objective, measurable data were collected from the City, the Multiple Listing Service (real estate listings and sales), real estate aggregators, Wright County, the State of Minnesota, the U.S. Census Bureau, and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. The City is at times compared to its regional peer communities, to a wider context (county, metro) in a variety of ways, and also compared to itself in the form of time-series data that reveal trends. This study also incorporates a series of interviews with people familiar with the housing market. A community survey of area residents was conducted in 2020, and those results are carried forward in this update. Housing Needs and DemandCity of Monticello 4 monticello is a community in Wright County, MN, located along the Mississippi River directly adjacent to Big Lake and Sherburne County. The larger Monticello region, though not part of the Metropolitan Council, is considered by HUD to be within the larger 13-county Twin Cities Metro Region. Monticello is about 27 miles from St. Cloud, 26 miles from Maple Grove, and 50 miles from St. Paul. With the largest population of all adjoining municipalities, Monticello is known for its natural landscapes, including access to parks and trails systems along the Mississippi River. The City is notably located directly on Interstate 94, providing direct access to the Twin Cities Metro, but especially convenient access to the northwest suburbs of Minneapolis, many of which are within a 30-minute drive of Monticello’s downtown. community BAsicsúûü úûü úûü S H E R B U R N ECOUNTY W R I G H T C O U N T Y H E N N E P I N C O U N T Y B I G L A K EBIG L A K E T O W N S H I PTOWNSHIP B U F F A L OBUFFALO T O W N S H I PTOWNSHIP M O N T I C E L L OMONTICELLO T O W N S H I PTOWNSHIP CHATHAMCHATHAM TOWNSHIPTOWNSHIP L I V O N I ALIVONIATOWNSHI PTOWNSHIP MAPLE LAK EMAPLE LAKE TOWNSHIPTOWNSHIP O R R O C KORROCKTOWNSHI PTOWNSHIPBECKERBECKERTOWNSHIPTOWNSHIP CLEARWATERCLEARWATER TOWNSHIPTOWNSHIP CORINNACORINNA TOWNSHIPTOWNSHIP CLEAR LAKECLEAR LAKETOWNSHIPTOWNSHIP ALBIONALBION TOWNSHIPTOWNSHIP SILVERSILVER CREEKCREEK TOWNSHIPTOWNSHIP B E C K E R C I T YBECKER C I T Y E L K R I V E RELK R I V E R C I T YCITY M O N T I C E L L OMONTICELLO C I T YCITY B U F F A L O C I T YBUFFALO C I T Y S A I N TSAINT M I C H A E LMICHAEL C I T YCITY O T S E G O C I T YOTSEGO C I T Y A L B E R T V I L L EALBERTVILLE C I T YCITY R O G E R S C I T YROGERS C I T Y B I G L A K EBIG L A K E C I T YCITY !#"94 !#"94 !#"94 !#"94 ./10 ./10 ./10 ./16 9 Printed By: smorrison, File: \\msa-ps.com\fs\Project\13\13731\13731002\GIS\13731 002_RegionalMap_202000802.mxd Print Date: 8/3/2020 Data Sources: Minnesota GIS Data Monticello, Wright County, MNRegional Map úûü Park N Ride Location Transit Routes State Trails Inters tate State Road US Highway River s and Streams Monticello Surrounding Municipality Monticello Housing Study 0 0.5 1 Miles Data not updated in 2023 Housing Study. Map does not reflect changes since 2020. 5 About Monticello PoPulAtion growth has been steady across the region throughout the past decade. Monticello saw a net increase of 2,005 residents from 2010 to 2021 per American Community Survey estimates. This represents a total percentage growth of 16.4%, the third highest growth percentage among peer communities. The closest community in growth percentage is the City of St. Michael, which grew at a similar rate (18%) as Monticello in the same timeframe. Increasing rates of household and housing unit growth throughout the region predict steady population growth at a healthy rate. Historical rates of growth are not necessarily predictors of future growth. Changing preferences, regional economic conditions, and other factors contribute to past and future housing choices for residents of the Metro. Unit demand has been increasing, and continued growth will follow - which is anticipated at 2% annually in the Monticello 2040 Comprehensive Plan. PoPulAtion 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000 Popula�on Trends Mon�cello Buffalo Becker Big Lake St. Michael PoPulAtion trends Municipality 2010 - 2021Population Growth AnnualPercentChange Big Lake 1,955 1.69% St. Michael 2,764 1.51% Monticello 2,005 1.39% Becker 518 1.03% Buffalo 1,350 0.80% PoPulAtion growth rAtes Source: American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates 2010-2021 Source: American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates 2010-2021 Housing Needs and DemandCity of Monticello 6 this section features a concise narrative of housing development activity (proposal, approvals, constructed units) from January 2020 to June 2023. During this period, 1,137 units were planned or constructed across rental, ownership, and senior housing markets in Monticello which was a construction level not seen in many years. These projects are in various stages of development with many of these units anticipated to be completed in the time after this report. Projects are broken down by market type below. owner mArket units planned or constructed in this time period numbered 288 with most projects producing single-family detached homes. Owner units represent 25.3% of planned or constructed development since 2020. New ownership developments are spread along the outskirts of City occurring on greenfield sites. Notable projects include the two Townhome/Twinhome developments that will increase the supply of affordable ownership units in comparison to traditional single-family detached unit. These developments and future townhome and condo units within Monticello are explored in a later section. rentAl mArket units planned or constructed in this time period reached historic highs with 595 new units, matching national trends in unprecedented rental unit construction. Rental unit production has outpaced owner market units since 2020 representing 52.3% of planned or constructed units. All new rental units are in multi-family apartment developments. The Savanna Vista project, part of the Pointes at Cedar planned community, will contribute 200 new apartments to the City in part of a development that will provide a connected, amenity rich experience to residents and community members. Project Name Type Year Total Units Permitted/ Built Units Approved/ Unbuilt Units Haven Ridge 1st Addition SF Detached Homes 2021 27 27 0 Carlisle Village 6th Addition SF Attached Townhomes 2022 73 73 0 Featherstone 5th Addition SF Detached Homes 2021- 2022 26 26 0 Edmonson Ridge SF Detached Homes 2021- 2023 54 24 30 Featherstone 6th Addition SF Detached Homes 2022- 2023 21 21 0 Haven Ridge 2nd Addition SF Detached Homes 2023- 2024 59 0 59 Stoney Brook Village SF Attached Twinhomes 2024 28 0 28 TOTAL 288 171 117 Project Name Type Year Total Units Permitted/ Built Units Approved/ Unbuilt Units Rivertown Residential Suites MF Apts 2020 47 47 0 Deephaven Apartments MF Apts 2022 165 165 0 Block 52 First Addition MF Apts 2024 87 0 87 Savanna Vista MF Apts 2024 200 0 200 Twin Pines MF Apts TBD 96 0 96 TOTAL 595 212 383 Source: City of Monticello Source: City of Monticello Source: City of Monticello Haven Ridge 1st Addition new mArket Activity 7 About Monticello Unit mix within these developments fall heavily in efficiency, 1-bedroom, and 2-bedroom units. Although unit size within apartment projects is subject to change, it would appear roughly only 5% of new units being created will offer 3-bedroom space. This is at odds with some residents’ preference towards larger unit size that our stakeholders have identified. Future developments should consider reallocating additional 3-bedroom apartments for families to their overall unit mix. senior housing remains an important challenge the City will need to address as the Baby Boomer generation continues to age. A mix of active living homes and apartments, assisted living, and memory care facilities will be necessary to provide a range of options to seniors. From January 2020 to June 2023, 3 new senior living developments have been constructed or planned totaling 254 units and representing 22.3% of total planned or constructed units during this time. All of these projects are headed by Headwaters Developments. Two of the projects will provide 40% of their units at prices affordable to elderly households at 50% or below the Area Median Income (AMI) at the county level. In 2020, Willows Landing opened its door and welcomed residents in a mix of 92 independent living, assisted living, and memory care units within its facility. Project Name Type Year Total Units Permitted/ Built Units Approved/ Unbuilt Units Willows Landing IL Apt, AL, Memory Care 2020 92 92 0 Headwaters West Senior Apartments (55+) MF Apts (40% Affordable) 2024 102 (41 Aff) 0 102 Headwaters Twinhome Senior Living (55+) SF Twinhomes (40% Affordable) 2024 60 (24 Aff) 12 48 TOTAL 254 104 150 Source: City of Monticello Source: City of Monticello Source: Jaybird Senior Living The Pointes at Cedar Willows Landing Housing Needs and DemandCity of Monticello 8 household growth within the City grew at an annual rate of nearly 1.5% since 2010, mirroring consistent increases in population growth. Counter to the longer term national trend of shrinking average household size, causing the number of households to grow faster than population, Monticello has seen relative stability in household growth and size since 2010. This is a noteworthy trend as we consider how housing demand is changing in Monticello since this often manifests in demand for family- sized housing units in both rental and ownership markets driven by slightly larger family sizes since 2010. Owner-occupied household size has remained steady at 2.8 persons per household in Monticello between 2010 to 2021. Renter household size fluctuated over the same time; it was 2.0 in 2010, increased to a high of 2.5 in 2016, and fell back to 2.2 by 202l. This, along with work from home preferences, likely points to consistent demand for family-sized housing in both the ownership market and the renter market. Across all tenures, the household size is 2.62 people per household according to ACS estimates. households Municipality 2010 - 2021Household Growth AnnualPercentChange Becker 368 2.13% St. Michael 1,110 1.82% Big Lake 625 1.63% Monticello 797 1.47% Buffalo 705 1.09% household growth rAtes 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 Households Mon�cello Buffalo Becker Big Lake St. Michael household trends Source: American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates 2010-2021 Source: American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates 2010-2021 9 About Monticello Age trends can help predict current and future needs of the community. As populations continue to age, or add members to their households, needs change as well. Since 2010, the City has seen the largest percentage increase amongst persons approaching and exceeding retirement age. Age cohorts above 50 are driving much of the population change, with approximately 6% annual growth in the 50-64 and 65-79 age categories. These persons and households have likely aged into this category over the decade, which is consistent with general trends of aging in the County, State, and Nation as baby-boomers reach retirement. The age cohort under 10 years old fell between 2016 and 2020 while rebounding slightly between 2020 and 2021. However the size of this age cohort in 2021 was still less than what it was in 2010. The young-adult to middle-age cohorts remained relatively stable in comparison over the past decade. Age cohorts 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 0 - 9 Years 10 - 19 Years 20 - 34 Years 35 - 49 Years 50 - 64 Years 65 - 79 Years 80 and Over Age trends Age Cohort 2010 2021 Annual Percent Change 0 - 9 Years 2,128 2,009 -0.52% 10 - 19 Years 2,079 2,219 0.59% 20 - 34 Years 2,813 2,949 0.43% 35 - 49 Years 2,911 3,058 0.45% 50 - 64 Years 1,235 2,592 6.97% 65 - 79 Years 624 1,046 4.81% 80 and Over 355 362 0.19% monticello Age cohort PoPulAtion chAnge Source: American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates 2010-2021 Source: American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates 2010-2021 Housing Needs and DemandCity of Monticello 10 Projecting Monticello’s population growth into the future is somewhat uncertain - and due to its location and amenities is partially dependent upon the availability and development of housing units. For a community of this size, large multi-unit developments or new subdivision development could be absorbed into the market on an annual basis, though would impact long-term projections. As new development occurs, and new amenities are added, demand will likely continue to increase with overall desirability of location and access. The community’s current comprehensive plan projects a 2% growth rate annually, with the plan offering development availability and appropriate densities with potential to draw regional households into the local housing market. Ranges displayed show the impact of growth scenarios at 2% annually, consistent with Monticello 2040 growth projections. PoPulAtion Projections 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 Mon�cello Mon�cello 2040 PoPulAtion Projections Monticello Population Projections 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Monticello 2040 13,700 15,255 16,637 18,145 19,738 monticello PoPulAtion growth scenArio Source: Monticello 2040 Plan Source: American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates 2010-2021 and Monticello 2040 Plan 11 About Monticello household Projections Monticello Household Projections 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Monticello 2040 5,083 5,476 6,106 6,808 7,650 monticello householdgrowth scenArio Projecting Monticello’s future households is tied to both future population projections as well as anticipated persons per household as demographics change and age. Across the nation, reductions in household sizes are expected to continue through at least 2040, though Monticello has been relatively stable in its household size over the past 10 years. This recent trend is potentially due to the local combination of young adults staying at home longer, as well as in-migration of young-family households with a preference for smaller-town living within the Metro for various reasons. Projection scenarios for the Monticello 2040 Comprehensive Plan anticipate the trend of reduced household size into the future, with larger household than population gains - again largely dependent upon the appetite for development and continued expansion of both housing opportunity as well as local amenities. 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 Mon�cello Mon�cello 2040 household Projections Source: Monticello 2040 Plan Source: American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates 2010-2021 and Monticello 2040 Plan Housing Needs and DemandCity of Monticello 12 Age cohort Projections - 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 Chart Title 0-9Years 10 - 19 Years 20 - 34 Years 35 - 49 Years 50 - 64 Years 65 - 79 Years 80 and Over Age cohort Projection As PoPulAtions Age, their housing needs begin to change. While a family of four might be best suited to a three- or four-bedroom home, once children move out of the home they have the effect of overconsuming in the market - using more housing than they need. As householders continue to age they may prefer to downsize, making upkeep and care more accommodating to their preferred lifestyle. Similarly, younger households (both single- person and two-person) have needs for smaller units prior to family creation, often seeking smaller homes and apartments before needing larger homes once they begin to have children. Looking at projected population growth rates to 2050, the fastest growing populations are those age 65 and over - by a significant margin. There is a distinct need for housing tailored to this age group, whether age-specific housing or policies that assist aging in place in their own homes. The remaining growth in the market is projected largely to be driven by family-forming households and children aged 0-9. Age Cohort 2020 Estimate* Projected Percent Increase Possible 2050 0 - 9 Years 2,292 12.2%2,573 10 - 19 Years 1,876 -3.7%1,806 20 - 34 Years 2,757 11.2%3,066 35 - 49 Years 2,598 17.5%3,053 50 - 64 Years 2,274 -26.5%1,672 65 - 79 Years 1,094 55.7%1,703 80 and Over 601 252.6%2,120 Age cohort rAtes *Tied to projections in Wright County, not directly to 2018 estimates. Source: Minnesota State Demographics Center Data not updated in 2023 Housing Study Data not updated in 2023 Housing Study 13 About Monticello Data not updated in 2023 Housing Study income trends income And eArnings are central to housing affordability. The more income that a household earns, more housing falls within their affordability threshold (in this report capped at 30% of total income toward housing cost). While incomes are mobile (households can move place to place), housing units are stationary. In practice, this means that households will often commute, choosing to live wherever they find the acceptable balance among convenience, quality, and affordability. Among regional peer communities, Monticello has the lowest median and mean incomes - meaning that households who live in the City earn less on average than those who live in other communities, regardless of their place of employment. Unlike the County, larger percentages of Monticello’s population fall into lower-income categories, and less of the City’s population falls into high-income categories. Part of this is likely due to retail jobs and younger householders, largely living in apartments in the community, as well as generally lower housing costs in the region. household income (2021) city vAriAnce Fromcounty income distriBution Lower % than County Higher % than County Source: American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates 2018 Source: American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates 2021 -4.0%-2.0%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0% Less than $10,000 $10,000 to $14,999 $15,000 to $24,999 $25,000 to $34,999 $35,000 to $49,999 $50,000 to $74,999 $75,000 to $99,999 $100,000 to $149,999 $150,000 to $199,999 $200,000 or More Difference $- $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 $100,000 $120,000 Median Household Income Mean Household Income Chart Title Mon�cello Buffalo Becker Big Lake St. Michael Wright County Housing Needs and DemandCity of Monticello 14 income is dependent on many factors, including resident educational attainment and the overall health of the economy. Among City residents, educational attainment is generally lesser than across the entire County. For residents 25 and over, the City has a larger share of residents than Wright County whose educational attainment is capped below a Bachelors Degree or equivalent. This is consistent with generally lower incomes, and reflective of generally lower costs of the housing market. Even considering educational attainment and increased job volatility, unemployment for the County remained at healthy rates pre-COVID. For those in the labor force and seeking employment, there is seemingly enough opportunity for residents to secure employment, whether in the City or in other accessible communities. emPloyment indicAtors -10.0% -8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% Less than High School Diploma Graduated High School Some College or Associate's Bachelor's or Higher Variancecity vAriAnce Fromcounty educAtionAl AttAinment Lower % than County Higher % than County city oF monticello emPloyment indicAtors 7.1% Unemployment Rate post-COVID* 90% Graduated High School 39% Some College or Associate’s Degree 19% Bachelor’s Degree or Higher 10% No High School Diploma 3.8% Unemployment Rate pre-COVID* Source: American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates 2018 Source: American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates 2018 Data not updated in 2023 Housing Study Data not updated in 2023 Housing Study 15 About Monticello locAl emPloyment income is dependent upon accessible employment opportunities, and Monticello offers a variety of employers in different sectors - most with a range of positions offering varying levels of compensation and experience. Monticello also benefits from access to Interstate 94 and proximity to both the Twin Cities Metro and St. Cloud, which provide more than 200,000 job opportunities for residents within a reasonable commute. This also means that the City is within a reasonable commute for thousands of residents, and has large potential to continue to capture shares of regional growth from both local economic development initiatives as well as for commuting households. Major local employers (table on right) represent nearly 3,800 positions available in the community. Employment in the City acts as a regional draw, resulting in daytime population growth from outlying communities that evenly offsets daytime population loss (balanced commuting patterns). These in-commuters largely reside in other, more rural portions of the County and metro - there is not significant in-commuting from suburbs within the 7-county area. mAjor emPloyers, 2020 Employer Employees Xcel Energy 680 Monticello Schools 678 CentraCare 535 Cargill 425 UMC 210 Walmart 209 WSI 135 Target 109 Bondhus 103 Home Depot 102 Dahlheimer Beverage 96 Suburban Manufacturing 91 Genereux-Westland 67 Twin Cities Die Cast 62 Camping World 59 Cub Foods 58 Aroplax 52 Production Stamping 50 Karlsburger Foods 49 Source: City of Monticello Community Development Department (2018) Data not updated in 2023 Housing Study Housing Needs and DemandCity of Monticello 16 occuPAtionAl AFFordABility Major Monticello Occupation Classes Entry-Level Wage Mid-Career Wage Entry Level Rent Limit Mid-Career Rent Limit Entry Level Ownership Limit Mid-Career Ownership Limit Number of Workers Office & Administrative Support - All $26,340 $41,005 $659 $1,025 $88,502 $137,777 1,007 Sales & Related Occupations - All $22,140 $31,810 $554 $795 $74,390 $106,882 765 Production Occupations - All $26,370 $38,825 $659 $971 $88,603 $130,452 659 Transportation & Material Moving - All $23,445 $36,210 $586 $905 $78,775 $121,666 649 Management Occupations - All $55,760 $102,995 $1,394 $2,575 $187,354 $346,063 618 Food Prep & Serving - All $21,420 $25,210 $536 $630 $71,971 $84,706 526 Healthcare Practitioners & Related - All $42,105 $74,885 $1,053 $1,872 $141,473 $251,614 381 Business and Financial Operations - All $41,795 $66,300 $1,045 $1,658 $140,431 $222,768 238 Educational Instruction & Library - All $27,740 $52,495 $694 $1,312 $93,206 $176,383 233 wAge rAnges of employee incomes (both between different occupations and within career paths) have a direct impact on the amount of money they can afford to spend on housing in the City of Monticello. Using the American Community Survey of the US Census Bureau to identify common occupations in the City and associated hybrid-wage data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, general income ranges for positions can be translated into housing “affordability limits” for both rental and ownership markets. Affordability limits represent the amount that could be paid monthly for all housing costs - including taxes, utilities, insurance, etc. - without paying more than 30% of total income toward housing. For many of Monticello’s most common occupation groups, affordability limits indicate modest monthly housing costs are most appropriate to ensure enough residual income for other necessary expenses. Though the numbers below represent single-person households, tightening housing markets and increased cost of ownership still impact and limit many households that may wish to purchase within Monticello’s ownership market. Source: 2019 Bureau of Labor Statistics. BLS offers data for Minneapolis and St. Cloud Metro areas - the numbers above represent an average of both Metro regions (though wages are comparable between the two). Entry-Level Wage is considered to be the 10th Percentile of reported Wages. Mid-Career is considered to be the Median (50th Percentile) of reported wages. Number of workers Age 16 and Older per 2014-2018 ACS Estimates. Number of workers is reflective of 2018 ACS 5-Year Estimates. Data not updated in 2023 Housing Study 17 About Monticello emPloyment locAtion for residents who live in the City of Monticello varies, with a large share (48%) commuting into metro counties daily for work. Notably, a significant share of residents who commute into the metro are traveling well into it during their daily commute, bypassing other employment centers that exist in both first- and second-ring suburbs. The most common place of employment for residents besides the City of Monticello itself is Minneapolis, with over 450 commuters daily by the most recently available data. Other common destinations include Plymouth, Maple Grove, Rogers, St. Paul, and Eden Prairie. This is consistent with the 2020 community survey responses, in which 48% of all respondents indicated that their primary place of employment was either “Twin Cities”, or directly named a first- or second-ring suburb of the Twin Cities in a comment. As issues with housing access and affordability continue in the larger region and transit access is increased, coupled with individual preference some households have for smaller communities, this share is likely to remain a strong portion of the housing market within the City. Though preliminary, impacts of COVID were mentioned in the community survey and are worth considering in future growth. Several respondents indicated working from home in addition to other COVID-influenced factors in their housing and commuting, and as work- from-home accommodations become more prevalent, this could begin to impact the local market as households with a preference for smaller-town living no longer find it necessary to remain in the City for their employment. It is likely this will have less of an impact on Monticello than surrounding communities (as key transportation corridors already eased access to the Twin Cities), though there is still potential for impact and this dynamic should be tracked in the coming years. commuting trends monticello resident toP PlAces oF work, 2020 Place of Work Resident Employees Monticello 1,303 Minneapolis 457 St. Cloud 305 Plymouth 279 Buffalo(City)269 Maple Grove 267 Rogers 221 St. Paul 207 Albertville 182 Elk River 176 Eden Prairie 147 St. Michael 144 Brooklyn Park 138 Bloomington 117 Minnetonka 108 Coon Rapids 107 Ostego 107 Golden Valley 94 Big Lake 83 Chanhassen 77 St. Louis Park 77 Anoka 66 Edina 64 Source: US Census OnTheMap 2020 Data most recent vintage. Housing Needs and DemandCity of Monticello 18 commuting trends commuting will continue to remain a factor for future housing decisions and growth. As scenarios in the comprehensive plan update focus on development potential, availability of units based on future land use decisions and development potential will directly impact the commuter- share that Monticello captures out of the Twin Cities market. While 52% of current residents work in places outside of the 7-county metro, an increasingly large share commute into metro counties on a daily basis. For example, 48% of Monticello residents work within the 7-county metro, while regional communities display shares of 48% for Buffalo, 53% for Big Lake, and 38% for Becker. Key differences include community size, access to amenities, and ease of transportation - which may position Monticello to continue to see housing market demand pressures from potential out-commuters. county oF emPloyment 34% 49% 8% 9% Hennepin Wright Other Metro County Other Non-Metro county oF emPloyment For monticello residents Source: US Census OnTheMap 2020 Data most recent vintage. Source: US Census OnTheMap 2020 Data most recent vintage. 33% 33% 15% 19% 6% 1%2% 33% 5% 1% 6%5% 1% 33% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 19 About Monticello A BAlAnced housing mArket requires new unit production to keep pace with new households moving into the market. This is discussed in more thorough detail within the following chapters, but at a most basic level, housing unit production must match increases in demand (in-migration and new household formation) in order to continue to provide a balanced housing market for all residents and would-be-residents of the City. This includes unit production at a variety of price points that serve the income needs for households currently working in the City, as well as higher- priced housing for choice commuters and users that have a greater degree of mobility, or choices, within the housing market. Though housing unit production has been at record levels in recent years within the County, households were added at a greater rate, indicating a shrinking vacancy rate and suggesting more competition for housing units. This is a common dynamic in housing markets since the Great Recession. regionAl growth 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Households Added Housing Units Added wright county growth 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Households Added 167 81 201 622 681 678 996 855 1,193 Housing Units Added 126 287 259 319 756 529 581 772 1,264 Annual Gap -31 +206 +58 -303 +75 -149 -415 -83 +71 wright countyProduction & growth Households Added Housing Units Added Source: American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates 2013-2021 Source: American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates 2013-2021 Housing Needs and DemandCity of Monticello 20 regionAl growth tightening housing markets within the County can be seen more readily when the annual addition of both housing units and households are viewed cumulatively. While a healthy supply gap remained through 2015, data indicates an increase in housing demand from household growth in the County, which occurred at a rate higher than that of housing unit construction. With the gap growing tremendously in the last 3 years. Tighter housing markets impact the market in various ways - most notably through decreasing the amount of vacancy in both ownership and rental markets. Decreasing vacancy shifts market balance toward sellers and landlords in both sectors, and often result in increased competition for units, increased prices, and can lead to decreased stability for individual households whose incomes may be capped at levels that cannot sustain increasing housing costs. 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Households Added 167 248 449 1,071 1,752 2,430 3,426 4,281 5,474 Housing Units Added 136 423 682 1,001 1,757 2,286 2,867 3,639 4,903 Cumulative Gap -31 +175 +266 -70 +5 -144 -559 -642 -571 wright county cumulAtive Production & growth 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Households Added Housing Units Added wright county growth Source: American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates 2021 Source: American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates 2013-2021 21 About Monticello emPloyee housing is found both inside and outside the City. Per the U.S. Census, 4,000-5,000 workers live outside Monticello and commute in for work, slightly a greater amount commute out of the City for work, and 1,000-2,000 persons both live and work in Monticello. inFlow/outFlow oF PrimAry joBs, 2020 toP emPloyee PlAces oF residence, 2020 Municipality Commuting Employees Monticello 1,303 Big Lake 443 Buffalo (City)241 St. Cloud 208 St. Michael 165 Becker 162 Ostego 158 Elk River 132 Clearwater 74 Albertville 69 Maple Grove 67 Ten municipalities other than the City of Monticello in the table on right represent 1,719 employees whose primary job is in Monticello - 26% of all employees that commute into the City daily for work. Everyone wants a safe, stable home they can afford in a community of their choice, but this is not the reality for many Minnesotans. Housing costs are outpacing income growth, and more people are struggling to find and maintain housing. Nearly half a million lower-income households [in Minnesota] are spending more than 30% of their income on housing. - Minnesota Housing Finance Agency 2019 Program Assessment Report Source: US Census OnTheMap 2020 Source: US Census OnTheMap 2020 Housing Needs and DemandCity of Monticello 22 Local Affordable Housing Definitions AFFordABle housing is housing that serves the residents currently living in a community or wanting to move to a community, especially residents with no income up through residents making 80% of the area median income (less than 100% AMI). However, these numbers are calculated by HUD using family incomes for the Minneapolis- St. Paul Metro. If calculated locally using a similar methodology, the income categories for households already living in Monticello would be much lower, as indicated in the table below. In Monticello, the area median income (as defined by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and applied by the Minnesota Housing Finance Agency) is $86,444 for a family of 4. This means that the 80% income limit is $69,155 for a family of 4. Funding for newly constructed affordable housing often comes through subsidy that offsets costs of construction and/or operation, primarily through federal tax credits awarded by the Minnesota Housing Finance Agency. This allows rents to be set at an amount that is considered to be manageable for lower-income households, while also ensuring they have residual income to afford childcare, transportation, healthcare, and all other amenities necessary for personal and family health and stability. Many housing subsidy programs set income limits to qualify households, typically a percentage of the area median income, adjusted by household size. Other forms of affordable housing can include: »Naturally Occurring Affordable Housing »Housing Operated by Non-Profits »Vouchers and Other Federal Programs »Housing supported through TIF Median Family Income 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Monticello $86,444 (100% AMI) Extremely Low Income (30% AMI) $18,153 $20,747 $23,340 $25,933 $28,008 $30,083 $32,157 $34,232 Very Low Income (50% AMI) $30,255 $34,578 $38,900 $43,222 $46,680 $50,138 $53,595 $57,053 Low Income (80% AMI) $48,409 $55,324 $62,240 $69,155 $74,688 $80,220 $85,752 $91,285 locAl household income cAtegories Persons in Household Source: American Community Survey 5-Year Estimate for 2021 Family Income Adjusted per HUD FY Income Limits 22 23 About Monticello Local Housing Affordability housing AFFordABility describes the relationship between housing cost and household income. Affordability is measured at the household level, in terms of the percentage of gross income that goes toward housing costs. The widely accepted standard for “affordable” is 30% of total household income going to housing. For renters, housing costs include contract rent, utilities, and renters insurance. Homeowner costs include principal, interest, taxes, insurance, and utilities. This measure is relative, meaning that higher income households have the choice of many homes within their budget, while lower income households generally have fewer options that would be affordable within the housing market. residuAl income describes the remaining income a household can pay toward other expenses or save after housing and other costs of living are accounted for. As most other costs are fixed, most households pay the same for them regardless of how much they earn (e.g. food, childcare, etc.). For example, a Monticello household of 2 adults and 1 child earning $82,500 could comfortably pay $2,063 in housing costs a month and still have nearly $1,400 left over. The same household earning $52,500 annually (which equates to one full time job at $25/hour) could afford $1,313 in monthly housing cost, but after other fixed expenses would not have enough money to pay 30% or less, likely sacrificing expenses elsewhere to pay for housing. exAmPle monthly costs: 2 Adults 1 Child Annual Income = $52,500 2 Adults 1 Child Annual Income = $82,500 30% housing limit = $1,313 Costs Monthly Income $4,375 Transportation ($1,421) Food ($683) Childcare ($701) Medical ($647) Income left for Housing & Other Expenses $923 30% housing limit = $2,063 Costs Monthly Income $6,861 Transportation ($1,421) Food ($683) Childcare ($701) Medical ($647) Income left for Housing & Other Expenses $3,409 Housing Needs and DemandCity of Monticello 24 Local vs. Regional Workforce Housing workForce housing is housing that is affordable to the workforce in a community regardless of income. Because incomes within the workforce vary (pg. 14), a range of housing options is needed to fit different needs. Workforce housing means ensuring a supply of affordable housing for employee households that earn minimum wage - and ensuring appropriately priced housing for moderate to high income earners in both the rental and ownership markets. Income categories below are calculated based on HUD methodology, and can be used to determine appropriate monthly housing costs for different households in Monticello. housing vAriety is a necessary component in a healthy housing market, as households have a variety of preferences and needs that impact where and how they can live. A healthy local economy requires a variety of housing to serve area employees including various structure types, sizes, locations, and price points. workForce AFFordABility is different among essential members of the workforce. Management employees, service workers, municipal workers (police, fire, etc.) all have housing need, while all generally desire cost-appropriate housing that allows enough residual income to support other necessary expenses. Monthly Housing Cost Limit Household Income 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Monticello $2,161 (100% AMI) Extremely Low Income (30% AMI) $454 $519 $583 $648 $700 $752 $804 $856 Very Low Income (50% AMI) $756 $864 $972 $1,081 $1,167 $1,253 $1,340 $1,426 Low Income (80% AMI) $1,210 $1,383 $1,556 $1,729 $1,867 $2,006 $2,144 $2,282 housing AFFordABility limits Persons in Household Source: American Community Survey 5-Year Estimate for 2021 Family Income Adjusted per HUD FY Income Limits 24 25 About Monticello AFFordABility within the metro varies, as incomes are different for residents of different areas. For example, the following are “affordable” housing costs at three different levels: the City of Monticello, Wright County, and the 13-County Metro. Monthly Housing Cost Limit Household Income 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Monticello $2,161 (100% AMI) Extremely Low Income (30% AMI) $454 $519 $583 $648 $700 $752 $804 $856 Very Low Income (50% AMI) $756 $864 $972 $1,081 $1,167 $1,253 $1,340 $1,426 Low Income (80% AMI) $1,210 $1,383 $1,556 $1,729 $1,867 $2,006 $2,144 $2,282 monticello AFFordABility limits Monthly Housing Cost Limit Household Income 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Wright County $2,709 (100% AMI) Extremely Low Income (30% AMI) $569 $650 $732 $813 $878 $943 $1,008 $1,073 Very Low Income (50% AMI) $948 $1,084 $1,219 $1,355 $1,463 $1,571 $1,680 $1,788 Low Income (80% AMI) $1,517 $1,734 $1,951 $2,168 $2,341 $2,514 $2,688 $2,861 wright county AFFordABility limits Monthly Housing Cost Limit Household Income 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Twin Cities Metro $3,123 (100% AMI) Extremely Low Income (30% AMI) $656 $749 $843 $937 $1,012 $1,087 $1,162 $1,237 Very Low Income (50% AMI) $1,093 $1,249 $1,405 $1,561 $1,686 $1,811 $1,936 $2,061 Low Income (80% AMI) $1,749 $1,998 $2,248 $2,498 $2,698 $2,898 $3,098 $3,297 13-county AFFordABility limits Persons in Household Persons in Household Persons in Household Source: American Community Survey 5-Year Estimate for 2021 Family Income Adjusted per HUD FY Income Limits Source: American Community Survey 5-Year Estimate for 2021 Family Income Adjusted per HUD FY Income Limits Source: HUD FY 2021 Income Limits Housing Needs and DemandCity of Monticello 2626 27 Rental Market RentAl MARket Demand & Supply 27 Housing Needs and DemandCity of Monticello 28 monticello’s rental market consists of a variety of housing types. Single-unit homes, rented attached unit housing, and 5+ unit multi-family residential structures are the most prevalent type of rental units found in the City. Importantly, there is also generally good distribution of rental units throughout the community. Interview and focus group conversations did not identify any particular areas that are lacking in access for renters, which is confirmed through assessment data (mapped above), which shows consistency with the local understanding of the community. As would be expected within the City, there are higher concentrations of rental units throughout the downtown, core City, and off of key transportation corridors such as Interstate 94. However, neighborhood and subdivision access to rental housing options is adequate to provide choices in tenure for households, providing opportunity to own or rent in areas of their preference throughout Monticello. rentAl mArket !#"94 !#"94 S H E R B U R N E C O U N T YWRIGHT C O U N T Y ××39 ××43 ××39 ××18 ××212 ××106 ××11 ××50 ××14 ××2222 ××17 ××189 ××287 EBROADWAY ST W B R OADWAYST CSAH 43 90TH ST NE 7TH ST CSAH 14 SCHOOL BLVD 85TH ST NE E BROADWAY ST CR-50 P A R K BLV D CHELSEA RD W RIVER ST CSAH 39 200TH S T HARDING AVE NE BRIARWOODAVE NE CAMERON ST ./10 ./10 Printed By: smorrison, File: \\msa-ps.com\fs\Project\13\13731\13731002\GIS\13731002_ResProperties_Rentals_202000806.mxd Print Date: 8/6/2020 Data Sources:Minnesota GIS DataWright County GIS & Assessor Data Monticello, Wright County, MN Residential Proper ties Renter Occupied Streets Interstate State Road US Highway Water Body Parcel Boundar y Surrounding Municipality Monticello Rental Proper ty Mixed Tenure Property Right of Way Monticello Housing Study 0 0.25 0.5 Miles Data not updated in 2023 Housing Study. Map does not reflect changes since 2020. 28 29 Rental Market !#"94 !#"94 SHERBURNE COUNTYWRIGHT COUNTY ××39 ××43 ××39 ××18 ××212 ××106 ××11 ××50 ××14 ××2222 ××17 ××189 ××287 EBROADWAY ST WBROADWAYST CSAH 43 90TH ST NE 7THST CSAH 14 SCHOOLBLVD 85TH ST NE E BROADWAY ST CR-50 P A R K BLV D CHELSEARD WRIVERST CSAH39 200THST HARDING AVE NE BRIARWOODAVE NE CAMERONST ./10 ./10 Printed By: smorrison, File: \\msa-ps.com\fs\Project\13\13731\13731002\GIS\13731002_ResProperties_Rentals_202000806.mxd Print Date: 8/6/2020 Data Sources:Minnesota GIS DataWright County GIS & Assessor Data Monticello, Wright County, MN Residential Properties Renter Occupied Streets Interstate State Road US Highway Water Body Parcel Boundary Surrounding Municipality Monticello Rental Property Mixed Tenure Property Right of Way Monticello Housing Study 00.250.5Miles AFFordABility limits in the rentAl mArket income oF residents is central to housing affordability. Though the housing market extends outside of Monticello, and the City has a large commuter-share working in the Metro, incomes shown below illustrate the median for current residents living in the community. Using the City’s incomes to determine affordability limits as opposed to those used by the Minnesota Housing Finance Agency and U.S. Department of Housing & Urban Development gives income ranges and categories found below, which reflect the lower average income than in other geographies. RentLimit 1 2 3 4 5 6 Monticello $2,161 (100% AMI) Extremely Low Income (30% AMI) $454 $519 $583 $648 $700 $752 Very Low Income (50% AMI) $756 $864 $972 $1,081 $1,167 $1,253 Low Income (80% AMI) $1,210 $1,383 $1,556 $1,729 $1,867 $2,006 monticello rentAl “AFFordABility” limits Median Family Income 1 2 3 4 5 6 Monticello $86,444 (100% AMI) Extremely Low Income (30% AMI) $18,153 $20,747 $23,340 $25,933 $28,008 $30,083 Very Low Income (50% AMI) $30,255 $34,578 $38,900 $43,222 $46,680 $50,138 Low Income (80% AMI) $48,409 $55,324 $62,240 $69,155 $74,688 $80,220 monticello income cAtegories AFFordABle rentAl limits are calculated based on the incomes above and illustrate the general amount a household already living in the City could afford in the housing market without becoming housing cost burdened. These vary based on percentages of the Area Median Income (AMI) as well as family size. The median income household for the City (100% AMI) could afford about $2,161 monthly in total housing costs (not solely contract rent), while maintaining “affordable” housing. Persons in Household Persons in Household Source: American Community Survey 5-Year Estimate for 2021 Family Income Adjusted per HUD FY Income Limits Source: American Community Survey 5-Year Estimate for 2021 Family Income Adjusted per HUD FY Income Limits 29 Housing Needs and DemandCity of Monticello 30 [Following the Great Recession], household growth has finally returned to a more normal pace. Housing production, however, has not. The shortfall in new homes is keeping the pressure on house prices and rents, eroding affordability—particularly for modest-income households in high-cost markets. While demographic trends should support a vibrant housing market over the coming decade, realizing this potential depends heavily on whether the market can provide a broader and more affordable range of housing options for tomorrow’s households. - Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University; State of the Nation’s Housing 2019 30 31 Rental Market tenure in the housing market refers to the structure of occupancy - ownership or rental. Within the City, ownership is by far the most common tenure type - more households own their primary place of residence than rent, though this has been decreasing slightly since 2010 (74.7% to 73.2% between 2010 and 2018). This is consistent with general trends within the region - similar homeownership shares in peer communities, generally more affordable housing than other areas of the larger region, and access to various types of structures. Lower-income households nationwide are more likely to be renter households, and this is true in the City as well, especially for the lowest income households earning 30% AMI or less. As households (and their associated incomes) are mobile, housing in the City represents larger shares of more lower-cost rental options that are affordable to lower-wage workers. High-income (>100% AMI) renters are choosing to live in the community, though a large majority of households transition to the ownership market once their income reaches this point. tenure in the housing mArket 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 0% - 30% AMI 31% - 50% AMI 51% - 80% AMI 81% - 100% AMI > 100% AMI Chart Title Owner Renter tenure By income hou s e h o l d s Income Renters Owners Total 0% - 30% AMI 480 155 635 31% - 50% AMI 200 355 555 51% - 80% AMI 405 580 985 81% - 100% AMI 155 545 700 >100% AMI 130 1,815 1,945 Total 1,370 3,450 4,820 households, income & tenure 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 0% - 30% AMI 31% - 50% AMI 51% - 80% AMI 81% - 100% AMI > 100% AMI Chart Title Owner Renter Source: HUD Comprehensive Housing Affordability Strategy Source: HUD Comprehensive Housing Affordability Strategy Data not updated in 2023 Housing Study Data not updated in 2023 Housing Study 31 Housing Needs and DemandCity of Monticello 32 regionAl Peer communities, while part of the commuter shed and larger Monticello housing market, display different trends in rates of homeownership. Income is generally higher for residents of these communities - and considering higher income ranges it is expected that they have higher rates of homeownership. Coupled with ease of transportation access and amenities found in Monticello, rental housing is more accessible and affordable as situated regionally. Monticello has the 2nd highest rate of renter households amongst its peer communities, with only Buffalo having a higher share of rental housing. This reflects not only income differences between these communities, but how the built environment has adjusted to market demand. With a higher share of ownership options available, households who want to purchase homes outside of the metro without the direct access to the Interstate have historically driven this market - and are more likely to be households with higher incomes and more purchasing power. tenure in the housing mArket regionAl tenure comPArisons tenure - monticello 73.2% 26.8% Owner Households Renter Households 81.7% 18.3% Owner Households Renter Households Wright CountyBuffalo 69.7% 30.3% Owner Households Renter Households 78.6% 21.4% Owner Households Renter Households Becker Big Lake 83.5% 16.5% Owner Households Renter Households 86.5% 13.5% h ld h ld St. Michael 73.2% 26.8% Owner Households Renter Households 69.7% 30.3% Owner Households Renter Households 78.6% 21.4% Owner Households Renter Households 83.5% 16.5% Owner Households Renter Households 86.5% 13.5% h ld h ld 69.7% 30.3% Owner Households Renter Households 78.6% 21.4% Owner Households Renter Households Source: American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates 2018 Data not updated in 2023 Housing Study Data not updated in 2023 Housing Study Source: American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates 2018 32 33 Rental Market Data not updated in 2023 Housing StudySource: American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates 2018 housing stress is measured by cost burden, which reflects the amount of income a household pays for total housing costs. Generally municipalities with larger stock of rental housing and very little vacancy would show higher housing costs for consumers and increasing rates of cost burden. This does not hold true in Monticello when compared to peer communities, which show similar rates of rental burden overall (with the exception of Becker). This also represents a share of older rental housing stock that is naturally more affordable to households through a combination of age, amenities, and “wear- and tear” on the units themselves. There is some evidence of higher- income households “renting down” within the market (spending less than 30% income toward rent), which in this case lowers rates of cost burden overall. As is typical due to income disparities between tenure types, cost burden is much more prevalent in Monticello for renter than owner households, indicative of generally higher owner income and tight lending standards. rentAl housing stress Municipality % of Renter Households with Cost Burden # of Cost Burdened Renter Households Monticello 47.4%633 Buffalo 53.1%939 Becker 29.5%110 Big Lake 55.1%318 St. Michael 45.0%321 Wright County 44.5%3,858 rentAl housing stress Chart Title Cost Burden <=30%Cost Burden >30% to <=50%Cost Burden >50% Chart Title Cost Burden <=30%Cost Burden >30% to <=50%Cost Burden >50% housing stress - tenure Renter Households Owner Households Chart Title Cost Burden <=30%Cost Burden >30% to <=50%Cost Burden >50% Chart Title Cost Burden <=30%Cost Burden >30% to <=50%Cost Burden >50% Chart Title Cost Burden <=30%Cost Burden >30% to <=50%Cost Burden >50% Chart Title Cost Burden <=30%Cost Burden >30% to <=50%Cost Burden >50% Source: HUD Comprehensive Housing Affordability Strategy Source: American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates 2018Data not updated in 2023 Housing Study Data not updated in 2023 Housing Study 33 Housing Needs and DemandCity of Monticello 34 rentAl stress in Monticello exists almost entirely within low-income City households. While there are renter households over 80% AMI that experience cost burden, higher-income cost burdened households often have the option to spend more than 30% of income toward housing while still maintaining the ability to cover fixed costs - cost burden by choice. Due to the structure of the rental market in the City, there are gaps in unit availability at appropriate price points to serve specific incomes in the market. Overall, there is a general oversupply of low-cost units that serve households between 31% and 80% AMI (approx. $800 - $1,300 monthly rent). These units represent natural appreciation of units within the market - they do not have subsidies that allow them to alleviate cost burden for the lowest- income households, while also not filling demand for the highest-income users in the market. There are significant housing gaps at both the top and bottom of the rental housing market, with an undersupply of market-rate units for households earning over 80% AMI (rental housing cost $1,500+) as well as affordable units with rents below $800 monthly. Although there is a high market gap, there is an upwards limit to income that can realistically be spent on housing. Many higher income households also value affordability (spending less than 30%), so this does not display true unit for unit demand for high cost housing. It does create some additional market tension, where some high income households rent significantly below what they could afford, using units otherwise affordable to lower-income households. rentAl stress By income 37 88 30 19 215 135 69 40 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Less than $20,000 $20,000 - $34,999 $35,000 - $49,999 $50,000 - $74,999 > $75,000 Chart Title Cost Burdened Severely Cost Burdened cost Burden By income Income Range Renter Households Rental Units Available Over-/Under-Supply 0% - 30% AMI 480 215 -265 31% - 50% AMI 200 650 450 51% - 80% AMI 405 460 55 > 81% AMI 285 45*-240 rentAl unitmismAtch *most recent available data - does not include Monticello Crossings Source: American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates 2018 Source: American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates 2018 Data not updated in 2023 Housing Study Data not updated in 2023 Housing Study 34 35 Rental Market Source: American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates 2018Data not updated in 2023 Housing Study rAtes oF renter cost Burden may be low in Monticello overall, but those renters who are cost burdened are much more likely to be severely cost burdened (spending more than 50% income toward rental costs). Of those experiencing cost burden in the City, 73% are severely cost burdened. This rate is significantly higher than in regional peer communities, 21.7 points higher than the next closest community. While rates of cost burden are low overall, higher income households “renting down”, as well as increased demand in the market overall increases competition for units in the moderate- and middle- market segments. This also indicates a lack of appropriately-priced units for the lowest income households already living in the community, and indicates opportunity to better serve low-income households through income-restricted and subsidized units that ensure affordability levels not currently provided within the market. rentAl housing stress Municipality # with CostBurden(30%-50%) # with Severe Burden(>50%) % Severely Cost Burdened Monticello 174 459 72.5% Buffalo 519 420 44.7% Becker 72 38 34.5% Big Lake 289 29 9.1% St. Michael 165 159 48.6% Wright County 1,889 1,959 50.8% cost Burdened renter households Source: American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates 2018 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Mon�cello Buffalo Becker Big Lake St. Michael Wright County Chart Title Cost Burden (30%-50% Income Toward Rent)Severe Cost Burden (>50% Income Toward Rent) levels oF cost Burden (2018) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Mon�cello Buffalo Becker Big Lake St. Michael Wright County Chart Title Cost Burden (30%-50% Income Toward Rent)Severe Cost Burden (>50% Income Toward Rent) Source: HUD Comprehensive Housing Affordability Strategy Data not updated in 2023 Housing Study Data not updated in 2023 Housing Study 35 Housing Needs and DemandCity of Monticello 36 which households are over- or underconsuming housing (renting above or below an affordable limit) is tracked annually by both the US Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD). While we know based on general over- and undersupply that higher- income renter households “rent down”, spending less than 30% of income on housing, we can also match which income-range units they are actually occupying. In Monticello at the time of data collection, low- income households (80% AMI or under) had been renting 100% of higher-end market rate units. This has likely changed, as US Census and HUD data do not yet reflect unit increases in the market-rate segment of the Monticello rental market from newly developed units. This reflects some of the reason for increased rates of severe cost burden in the City overall, though due to unit numbers does not account for a large portion. Moderate- to high-income households (making over 80% AMI) rent approximately 14% of rental housing units that would be affordable to households earning 31% - 80% AMI. The largest mismatches in unit consumption in the City are from households earning 51% - 80% AMI renting units affordable to 31% - 50% AMI households (32% of those units), and 0% - 30% AMI households renting units above their affordability level (64% of all extremely low income households are in units unaffordable to them). While this means access to affordable housing options are readily available for low- and moderate-income households (>80% AMI), it also means that extremely low-income households (which are less competitive in the rental market) must spend more to secure housing, and often housing that is significantly above their affordability limit. rentAl unit consumPtion 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Chart Title 0% - 30% AMI 31% - 50% AMI 51% - 80% AMI 81% - 100% AMI > 100% AMI rentAl unit consumPtion (By income) uni t s household income 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Chart Title 0% - 30% AMI 31% - 50% AMI 51% - 80% AMI 81% - 100% AMI > 100% AMI Source: HUD Comprehensive Housing Affordability StrategyData not updated in 2023 Housing Study 36 37 Rental Market rentAl unit consumPtion while unit choice is important to the freedom and desirability of the local housing market, more options at appropriate price points can help guide consumers into more appropriately priced units that ease burden at all levels. Comments received in the 2020 Community Survey largely called out this need for housing across multiple price points - even when not directly asked. While a few respondents were hesitant toward new development, themes largely arose that clearly identified both affordable and executive level housing options as needs within the community. This included a significant response for increased housing support directed toward households at risk of homelessness - which per HUD guidance is considered severely cost burdened, extremely low-income renter households (approx. 225 of these households currently live in the City). The survey also identified specific building types they would like to see within the market - and in addition to amenity-rich market rate options for renters who may choose to telecommute, attached unit and townhome development were commonly listed as options to help fill the mid-level market, whether ownership or rental. In looking to directly address rental costs for low- income households, one method commonly used is to aim to add the undersupply. In Monticello, this would be a goal to add 265 units of rental housing affordable to the lowest-income earners in the community (0% - 30% AMI households). This would allow options for these households to eliminate or severely reduce their housing costs, decrease rates of rental cost burden, and open up units they were occupying to other households in the community or moving to the community at price-points appropriate to their own income. Rental Units 0% - 30%31% - 50%51% - 80%81% - 100%>100% Affordable at 30% 175 40 0 0 0 Affordable 31% - 50%195 85 210 105 60 Affordable 51% - 80%95 60 180 50 70 Affordable at >80%15 15 15 0 0 rentAl unit household occuPAncy Households by Income Source: HUD Comprehensive Housing Affordability StrategyData not updated in 2023 Housing Study 37 Housing Needs and DemandCity of Monticello 38 rentAl unit tyPes unit tyPes are important to provide choice in the housing market that match characteristics and meet preferences of residents and potential residents of the City. Of note, there are very few rental units per the U.S. Census that are in 2-4 unit structures. 36% of the rental units in the City are either single- unit detached or single-unit attached homes. Although a significant portion of the rental housing stock, 58% of all rental units are in 5+ unit structures. Commonly housing different household types, this balance across structure (and cost) segments indicates a healthy mix of preference and type options for varying household needs. !#"94 !#"94 S H E R B U R N E C O U N T YWRIGHT C O U N T Y ××39 ××43 ××39 ××18 ××212 ××106 ××11 ××50 ××14 ××2222 ××17 ××189 ××287 EBROADWAY ST W B R OADWAYST CSAH 43 90TH ST NE 7TH ST CSAH 14 SCHOOL BLVD 85TH ST NE E BROADWAY ST CR-50 PA R K B LV D CHELSEA RD W RIVER ST CSAH 39 200T H S T HARDING AVE NE BRIARWOODAVE NE CAMERON ST ./10 ./10 Printed By: smorrison, File: \\msa-ps.com\fs\Project\13\13731\13731002\GIS\13731002_ResProperties_byNoUnits_RenterOcc_202000820.mxd Print Date: 8/20/2020 Data Sources:Minnesota GIS DataWright County GIS & Assessor Data Monticello, Wright County, MN Renter Occupied Residential Properties By Number of Units Streets Interstate State Road US Highway Water Body Parcel Boundary Surrounding Municipality Monticello Number of Units Single Unit Detached Single Unit Attached 2 3-4 5-19 20 or More Manufactured Home Park Right of Way Monticello Housing Study 0 0.25 0.5 Miles Unit Type Number of Units % of Total Rental Units Rental as % of Unit Type 1-unit detached 399 24.8%12.0% 1-unit attached 181 11.3%27.9% 2-4 unit 35 2.2%34.3% 5-19 unit 516 32.1%96.8% 20+ unit 421 26.2%98.1% Mobile Home 55 3.4%15.4% rentAl units - tyPe Source: American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates 2021 Data not updated in 2023 Housing Study. Map does not reflect changes since 2020. 38 39 Rental Market Source: American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates 2021 AFFordABility trends generAl meAsures And trends in affordability are a contrast of current incomes compared to current costs. One measure is whether or not the median renter household can afford the median rental unit, which is a measure of choice. If yes, 50% or more of all rental units would be available to that household. If no, choice is restricted and market supply and demand are unbalanced. Though the median rent was affordable to the median renter in 2021, the newest units in the City are not accounted for in this dataset. Recent estimates of family income and rent (using HUD methodology) show both have risen steadily in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. Ranges of unit rental costs in the City show that most units rent over $1,000 per month (including utilities), and though there are units priced below $500 monthly, there is not enough supply for residents at this income level already living in the City. About $500 in rental costs per month is the affordability limit for a two-person household earning $20,000 annually, and equates to a City household at 30% AMI. rentAl cost & income $0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 $1,200 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Median Rent Rent Affordable to Median Renter Household 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 unit rents uni t s gross rent Source: American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates 2021 Source: American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates 2021 $0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 $1,200 $1,400 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Median Rent Rent Affordable to Median Renter Household 39 Housing Needs and DemandCity of Monticello 40 rentAl housing cost renter households in the City currently pay $1,100-$1,300 per month for a 1-bedroom unit (average), and between $1,200-$1,600 per month for 2-bedroom units (average). This marks a 20% increase in monthly rent for 2-bedroom units since 2020. Within the market, however, there is significant variation in unit costs expected with variance in age of construction, location, and amenities. Among peer communities, Monticello generally sees lower rent for units of all sizes across the spectrum. Due to the way ACS data is calculated, recent rental unit construction is not included. As of 2021 ACS 5-year averages, Monticello tends to have highest 3-bedroom rental units amongst its regional peers. All other unit prices in Monticello remain generally more affordable or on par with prices elsewhere in the region, although matching affordability for current residents remains a top concern. Income Census (2021)(1) RentAggregator (2) Rent Aggregator Efficiency $527 -$1,337 1-Bedroom $739 $1,115 $1,264 2-Bedroom $989 $1,367 $1,554 3-Bedroom $1,634 1,815 $1,762 4-Bedroom $1,665 2,456 $2,333 All Bedrooms $1,041 -- monthly rentAl estimAtes Rental Aggregators are based on adjusted active listings, average for 2023 $0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 $1,200 $1,400 $1,600 $1,800 $2,000 Efficiency 1-Bedroom 2-Bedroom 3-Bedroom 4-Bedroom 5+ Bedroom Mon�cello Buffalo Becker Big Lake St. Michael Wright County rentAl unit cost Source: American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates 2021 Source: American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates 2021; (1) Zumper; (2) Apartments.com 40 41 Rental Market vAcAncy rAte vAcAncies in the rental market are important for continued access and affordability. Healthy rental vacancy rates are considered to be between 5% and 7% of all units. This falls within the assumed vacancy for new development (5%), allows turnover and growth in population, keeps market rental cost increases to appropriate amounts, and provides a general balance between landlord and tenant. The U.S. Census Bureau provides relatively accurate numbers for rental vacancy in the City, especially when utilizing moving averages over multiple survey years. These vacancy numbers were verified to be relatively accurate through interviews with property managers, developers, and landlords, though there was variation reported based on unit age and condition. Generally, more affordable older units were at vacancies approaching 0%, while newer unit construction had greater vacancy - though still below typical development assumption of 5%. In general, low vacancy increases competition for units, and as a byproduct can inflate year over year rental cost increases. These large year over year increases were confirmed by study participants, with some reporting contract rent increases of over 10% on an annual basis without impacting renewals or lease-ups. rentAl unit vAcAncies increAsing suPPly and increasing vacancy of rental units in the community would be healthy for the housing market. Doing so would allow potential residents, employees, and commuters that prefer smaller markets the opportunity to move into the community. It would also allow healthy turnover of units within the market providing more choices of housing for current residents, and allow residents to self-select into housing of both an appropriate size and type. The significant decrease in rental vacancy from 2013 to 2021 has continued, and though development has occurred, property owners and managers interviewed for the study did not report significant vacancies at their properties - with all below the recognized healthy range of 5%-7%. It should be noted that the available vacancy data lags actual conditions, and while anecdotal reports indicate low vacancy, the continued production of new rental units in 2022 and 2023 may finally be pushing vacancy up again. If and when vacancy rises, it will slow the rise of rental rates but should not be expected to result in lower rates. wright countyvAcAncy rAte 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Vacancy Rate Vacancy Rate 2per.Avg.VacancyRate “Healthy” Vacancy Range Source: American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates 2021 Source: American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates 2021 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Vacancy Rate 2 per. Mov. Avg. (Vacancy Rate) “Healthy” Vacancy Rate 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Vacant for Rent (Units) 41 Housing Needs and DemandCity of Monticello 42 HOUSEHOLD SIZE is important to the housing market, as larger households require units with more bedrooms to not be overcrowded (more then 1 person per room). In 2021, over half (52%) of rental housing in Monticello was occupied by 1-person households; all other household sizes (2-person to 7 or more) combined make up remaining 48% of rental-occupied housing units. Of note, between 2018 and 2021, the number of 3-person renter households increased from 45 to 133—an increase of 195%. Similarly, the estimated number of 3-bedroom rental units increased from 223 to 464 according to ACS 5-year estimates. These were the largest increases among household sizes and unit bedroom sizes. While the majority of rental units are still 1-and 2-bedrooms (58%),the growth in 3-person rental households and 3-bedrooms rental units over the last few years shows there is strong demand for larger rentals that provide more space. In the rental market, especially for low- and moderate-income family households, maintaining access to 3 or more bedroom units will be important in the coming years to allow residents to grow their families in place. rentAl housing size 39% 33% 17% 11% 30% 32%2% 37% 42% 17% 22% 19% 89% 0%11% 0% renter household size renter household size - monticello 43% 29% 3% 25% MonƟcello 1-Person 2-Person 3-Person 4-or-more Person 43% 29% 3% 25% MonƟcello 1-Person 2-Person 3-Person 4-or-more Person Wright CountyBuffaloBecker Big Lake St. Michael Source: American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates 2021 Source: American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates 2021 52% 15%8% 25% 1-Person2-Person3-Person4-or-more Person 52% 15% 8% 25% 1-Person 2-Person 3-Person 4-or-more Person 42% 27% 12% 19% 42 43 Rental Market rentAl housing size housing unit size works to not only match the requirements of households based on family size, but also preferences for additional space - for example, the expanding need for housing that includes room for office spaces and other work from home accommodations. One key amenity that is not often mentioned in housing choice is access to fiber internet connection. As many rural areas struggle with access, this amenity could work to further attract former metro residents who prefer smaller town accommodations, while allowing fluidity in commute as well as telecommute access. If this trend does persist long-term, even a small change in preference to work from home or more remote locations could have a significant impact on the rental housing market, as well as preferences for size of housing. numBer oF Bedrooms - rentAl Source: American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates 2021 rentAl units By Bedroom size 5% 22% 36% 29% 5%3% 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 Efficiency 1-Bedroom 2-Bedroom 3-Bedroom 4-Bedroom 5+ Bedroom uni t s Source: American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates 2021 5% 22% 36% 29% 5%3% Efficiency 1-Bedroom 2-Bedroom 3-Bedroom 4-Bedroom 5+ Bedroom 43 Housing Needs and DemandCity of Monticello 44 rentAl units & Buildings Apartment Buildings Units Address Constructed/Anticipated Monticello Crossings 202 2205 Meadow Oak Ave 2015 Savanna Vista 200 The Pointes at Cedar 2025 Deephaven Apartments 165 1255 Edmonson Ave NE 2022 Headwaters West Senior Apartments (55+)102 Golf Course Rd & 7th St 2024 Twin Pines 96 School Blvd TBD *Willows Landing 92 9872 Hart Blvd 2020 *St Benedicts—(Independent Living)91 1301 E 7th St 1999 Block 52 First Addition 87 101 W Broadway St 2024 The Bluffs 72 700 , 707, 714 E 7th St 1987 Headwaters Twinhome Senior Living (55+)60 Tee Box Trl 2024 Monticello Village Apts 60 725 - 733 MN St 2000 *St Benedicts—(Independent Living)59 1305 E 7th St 1999 *Mississippi Shores 49 1213 Hart Blvd 1997 Ridgemont Apts—(Low Income)48 716 Maple St 1988 Rivertown Residential Suites 47 212 Locust St 2020 Ridgeway Apts—(Low Income)44 330 - 333 W 6th St 1976 Westcello Apts 44 915 - 921 Golf Course Rd 1987 *Cedar Crest Apt 38 406 Cedar St 1977 Hillside Properties I—(Low Income)35 207 E 7th St 1981 Silvercrest Apts 35 307 E 7th St 2002 *River Park View Apts 31 218 W River St 1986 *Broadway Square Apts 28 243 W Broadway 1989 Terrace View Apts—(Low Income)26 401 E 7th St 1986 44 45 Rental Market rentAl units & Buildings cont. Apartment Buildings Units Address Constructed/Anticipated Jefferson Heights Apts 24 615 7th St E 1975 River Road Apts 24 139 Riverview Dr 1986 Marywood Apts 24 407 E 7th St 1985 Hammer Apts 15 154 E Broadway 1943 Seventh Street Townhomes 15 313 W 7th St 1993 Chock Apts 12 801, 803, 807 W 3rd St 1970-1985 Hillside Properties II—(Low Income)12 301, 303 E 7th St 1981 Monticello Manor 12 306 W 6th St 1972 Pointe Apts, The 12 607 E 7th St 1975 Terrace Six Apts 12 318 W 6th St 1972 Source: City of Monticello * Indicates senior living developments 45 Housing Needs and DemandCity of Monticello 46 monticello’s rental market consists of a variety of housing types - with varying ages of construction. Many of the oldest rental units in the City are single-unit structures throughout the downtown, consistent with general development patterns. There are also significant larger-unit rental structures built near downtown that were built in the 1970s and 80s. Monticello Crossings is the largest unit structure that has been built since the recession in 2008. Thirty-nine percent of all rental units in the housing market were built prior to 1989, and are often the most affordable rentals in a community. The 1990s saw a large increase in construction that became rental housing, and the early 2000s saw decreased production before the recession, though rebounding significantly post-2014. Since 2020, there has been 304 units built with 545 approved units on their way. multi-unit rentAl Age !#"94 !#"94 S H E R B U R N E C O U N T Y W R I G H T C O U N T Y ××39 ××18 ××43 ××14 ××50 ××17 ××39 ××106 ××11 ××212 ××2222 ××189 ××287 ./10 ./10 Printed By: smorrison, File: \\msa-ps.com\fs\Project\13\13731\13731002\GIS\13731002_ResProperties_ByAge_RentalUnits_202000820.mxd Print Date: 8/20/2020 Data Sources:Minnesota GIS Data Monticello, Wright County, MN Renter Occupied ResidentialProperties by Year Built Streets Interstate State Road US Highway Water Body Parcel Boundary Surrounding Municipality Monticello Year Built 1850 - 1895 1896 - 1930 1931 - 1969 1970 - 1991 1992 - 2007 2008 - 2018 No Year Built Data Non Residential Parcels Right of Way Monticello Housing Study 0 0.25 0.5 Miles Unit Type Number of Units 1969 or Earlier 115 1970 to 1989 767 1990 to 1999 401 2000 to 2009 380 2010 or Later 605 rentAl units - yeAr Built Source: American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates 2021 supplemented by City of Monticello data records. Data not updated in 2023 Housing Study. Map does not reflect changes since 2020. 46 47 Rental Market rentAl units - yeAr Built there is A need for new rental construction in the City that serves low- and high-income earners alike. High-income earning households can afford rents associated with higher cost of new-construction, and developers can market increased costs through increased amenities. However, lower-income households largely cannot afford new construction. Construction cost and the requisite rents to cover debt service, reserves, and operating expenses even under a conservative example necessitate rents that would be unaffordable for low-income households. Simply, construction costs are a direct barrier to ensuring Monticello’s lowest-income households have access to housing they can afford. To ensure expanded opportunities and units that meet the needs of all residents of the City, subsidies are needed to offset construction costs to make more units affordable, in combination with rehabilitation programs to ensure continued unit adequacy at affordable cost (pg. 27), especially for existing aging units. exAmPle - construction cost 1-Bedroom rentAl (new construction) Example 1-Bedroom Unit Construction & Land Cost = $200,000 Equity to Cost Ratio 20%Loan to Cost Ratio 80% Required Equity $40,000 Mortgage Loan $160,000 Annual Pre-tax Distribution Rate 10%Mortgage Interest Rate 5% Cash Payments for Equity $4,000 Debt Service $8,000 Net Operating Income $12,000 Operating Expenses $2,791 Real Estate Taxes $3,349 Replacement Reserve $502 Effective Gross Revenue $18,642 Vacancy (5% required assumption) $932 Gross Potential Income $19,574 Breakeven Annual Rent $19,574 Breakeven Monthly Rent $1,631 Source: Construction and Land Cost Estimates for the Twin Cities Metro region 47 Housing Needs and DemandCity of Monticello 48 exAmPle - AFFordABility Monthly Housing Cost Limit 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Monticello $2,161 (100% AMI) Extremely Low Income (30% AMI) $454 $519 $583 $648 $700 $752 $804 $856 Very Low Income (50% AMI) $756 $864 $972 $1,081 $1,167 $1,253 $1,340 $1,426 Low Income (80% AMI) $1,210 $1,383 $1,556 $1,729 $1,867 $2,006 $2,144 $2,282 Persons in household Households marked by red in the Housing Affordability Limit table above would not be able to afford the 1-bedroom new construction rental unit in the example. Source: American Community Survey 5-Year Estimate for 2021 Family Income Adjusted per HUD FY Income Limits 79% of the Above household cAtegoRies ARe below the AffoRdAbility liMit 48 49 Rental Market Page intentionally left blank. 49 Housing Needs and DemandCity of Monticello 50 owneRship MARket Demand & Supply 50 51 Ownership Market the mAjority oF residentiAl PArcels in the City of Monticello are owner-occupied units. This holds true across all areas of the City, not only throughout various neighborhood and subdivisions, though downtown parcels are more evenly divided. Owner housing is a large and key component of the local housing market, and ownership opportunity is one of the key considerations that has been driving growth in the City over the past decade. While the majority of owner-occupied units within the City are single-unit detached housing, there is also good representation of single-unit attached housing units, as well as a few condo units in small residential (3 to 9 unit) structures. Notably, the two manufactured home parks account for over 200 total units of owner-occupied housing, which serves a key market in the City for low-cost housing stability at a reduced cost. ownershiP mArket !#"94 !#"94 S H E R B U R N E C O U N T YWRIGHT C O U N T Y ××39 ××43 ××39 ××18 ××212 ××106 ××11 ××50 ××14 ××2222 ××17 ××189 ××287 EBROADWAY ST W B R OADWAYST CSAH 43 90TH ST NE 7TH ST CSAH 14 SCHOOL BLVD 85TH ST NE E BROADWAY ST CR-50 PA R K B LV D CHELSEA RD W RIVER ST CSAH 39 200T H ST HARDING AVE NE BRIARWOODAVE NE CAMERON ST ./10 ./10 Printed By: smorrison, File: \\msa-ps.com\fs\Project\13\13731\13731002\GIS\13731002_ResProperties_byNoUnits_OwnerOcc_202000820.mxd Print Date: 8/20/2020 Data Sources:Minnesota GIS DataWright County GIS & Assessor Data Monticello, Wright County, MN Owner Occupied Residential Properties By Number of Units Streets Interstate State Road US Highway Water Body Parcel Boundary Surrounding Municipality Monticello Number of Units Single Unit Detached Single Unit Attached Manufactured Home Park Right of Way Monticello Housing Study 0 0.25 0.5 Miles Data not updated in 2023 Housing Study. Map does not reflect changes since 2020. Housing Needs and DemandCity of Monticello 52 AFFordABility limits in the ownershiP mArket income oF residents is central to housing affordability. For ownership opportunities, this largely refers to the “purchasing power” of a given household based on known incomes. Though the housing market extends outside of Monticello, and the City has a large commuter-share working in the Metro, incomes shown below illustrate the median for current residents of the community. Using the City’s incomes to determine affordability limits as opposed to those used by the Minnesota Housing Finance Agency and U.S. Department of Housing & Urban Development gives income ranges and categories found below, which reflect the lower average income than in other geographies. PurchaseLimit 1 2 3 4 5 6 Monticello $290,452 (100% AMI) Extremely Low Income (30% AMI) $60,995 $69,708 $78,422 $87,136 $94,106 $101,077 Very Low Income (50% AMI) $101,658 $116,181 $130,703 $145,226 $156,844 $168,462 Low Income (80% AMI) $162,653 $185,889 $209,125 $232,361 $250,950 $269,539 Median Family Income 1 2 3 4 5 6 Monticello $86,444 (100% AMI) Extremely Low Income (30% AMI) $18,153 $20,747 $23,340 $25,933 $28,008 $30,083 Very Low Income (50% AMI) $30,255 $34,578 $38,900 $43,222 $46,680 $50,138 Low Income (80% AMI) $48,409 $55,324 $62,240 $69,155 $74,688 $80,220 PurchAse limits based on the incomes above illustrate the general amount a household could afford in the housing market without becoming housing cost burdened. The median income household in the City could afford a $290,452 home purchase from annual income of $86,444. monticello ownershiP “AFFordABility” limits monticello income cAtegories Persons in Household Persons in Household Source: American Community Survey 5-Year Estimate for 2021 Family Income Adjusted per HUD FY Income Limits Source: American Community Survey 5-Year Estimate for 2021 Family Income Adjusted per HUD FY Income Limits 53 Ownership Market tenure imPActs ownershiP mArkets as well as rental markets. Referring to whether a household owns or rents their property, tenure’s impacts means that larger shares of owner households in a community mean more owner housing stock - and more choices for households who prefer ownership as a tenure over renting. The current percent of ownership households in Monticello is slightly less than in most regional peer communities. While this makes it slightly out of line for the region, it does have easy access to Interstate 94, generally lower-cost housing, and older rental housing stock that make it more affordable for renters, decreasing owner households as a percentage of the community overall. tenure in the housing mArket regionAl tenure comPArisons tenure - monticello 73.2% 26.8% Owner Households Renter Households 81.7% 18.3% Owner Households Renter Households Wright CountyBuffalo 69.7% 30.3% Owner Households Renter Households 78.6% 21.4% Owner Households Renter Households Becker Big Lake 83.5% 16.5% Owner Households Renter Households 86.5% 13.5% h ld h ld St. Michael 73.2% 26.8% Owner Households Renter Households69.7% 30.3% Owner Households Renter Households 78.6% 21.4% Owner Households Renter Households 83.5% 16.5% Owner Households Renter Households 86.5% 13.5% h ld h ld 69.7% 30.3% Owner Households Renter Households 78.6% 21.4% Owner Households Renter Households Source: American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates 2018 Source: American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates 2018 Data not updated in 2023 Housing Study Data not updated in 2023 Housing Study Housing Needs and DemandCity of Monticello 54 tenure By income the mAjority of owner-occupied homes in the City are occupied by households that are above the median income for the 15-county metro. This is not an uncommon occurrence, as increased income opens up increased ownership opportunities and eases costs associated with homeownership (down payment, taxes, etc.). While the largest share of owner households in the City earn more than the metro median income, there are still large portions of lower-income households who do own their housing within the City. These households may be attracted to the general lower cost of housing compared to other areas of the metro. They also often represent aging homeowners who have entered retirement and seen significant loss in income, which brings new challenges. Although these owners may own their home free and clear, they may struggle with property tax payments, upkeep, and other factors of homeownership that require continual maintenance funds or physical requirements that aging populations sometimes struggle to meet. Income Renters Owners Total 0% - 30% AMI 480 155 635 31% - 50% AMI 200 355 555 51% - 80% AMI 405 580 985 81% - 100% AMI 155 545 700 >100% AMI 130 1,815 1,945 Total 1,370 3,450 4,820 households, income & tenure Source: HUD Comprehensive Housing Affordability Strategy 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 0% - 30% AMI 31% - 50% AMI 51% - 80% AMI 81% - 100% AMI > 100% AMI Owner Household Renter Household tenure By income Source: HUD Comprehensive Housing Affordability Strategy Data not updated in 2023 Housing Study Data not updated in 2023 Housing Study 55 Ownership Market Source: HUD Comprehensive Housing Affordability Strategy Data not updated in 2023 Housing Study owner housing stress housing stress - tenureChart Title Cost Burden <=30%Cost Burden >30% to <=50%Cost Burden >50% Chart Title Cost Burden <=30%Cost Burden >30% to <=50%Cost Burden >50% Renter Households Owner Households Chart Title Cost Burden <=30%Cost Burden >30% to <=50%Cost Burden >50% Chart Title Cost Burden <=30%Cost Burden >30% to <=50%Cost Burden >50% Chart Title Cost Burden <=30%Cost Burden >30% to <=50%Cost Burden >50% Chart Title Cost Burden <=30%Cost Burden >30% to <=50%Cost Burden >50% Source: HUD Comprehensive Housing Affordability Strategy housing stress is measured by cost burden, which reflects the amount of income a household pays for total housing costs. While the rental housing market in Monticello is marked by relatively high levels of cost burden (> 30% income toward rental costs), the ownership housing market has significantly reduced levels of burden in comparison. Further - for those households in the ownership market who do experience cost burden, they are much less likely to experience severe cost burden (> 50% income toward housing costs). While housing is a necessity, so all households must participate in the market in some aspect, owner households have the financial resources available to choose to purchase their housing. An effect of that choice is that in order to qualify, potential owner households must meet underwriting standards - an aspect of the market that drastically reduces the cost risk associated with owning, as borrowers are more likely to have higher incomes and increased access to credit. Municipality % of Owner Households with Cost Burden # of Cost Burdened Owner Households Monticello 16.5%603 Buffalo 15.3%625 Becker 15.6%214 Big Lake 24.0%699 St. Michael 13.4%610 Wright County 18.8%7,263 ownershiP housing stress Source: American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates 2018Data not updated in 2023 Housing Study Data not updated in 2023 Housing Study Housing Needs and DemandCity of Monticello 56 owner housing stress in Monticello exists almost entirely within low-income households. Important to consider is that for households above this amount - 80% AMI or greater, cost burden is less impactful than for low-income households. Even accounting for increased housing costs, costs associated with fixed-cost goods (childcare, healthcare, food, etc.) allow more flexibility within a monthly budget to allow some levels of cost burden while maintaining financial stability. For lower-income households, there is less room for increased costs or unexpected expenditure. In ownership unit mismatch, homes available in the market are generally oversupplied in the lower cost market when considering incomes for the 11-county metro. This is consistent with known lower housing costs in the area - but is also reflective of slightly lower incomes in the City than the County and metro as a whole. owner stress By income 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Chart Title Cost Burden No Cost burden cost Burden (income) Income Range Owner Households Ownership Units Available Over-/Under-Supply 0% - 50% AMI 510 1,810 1,300 51% - 80% AMI 580 1,310 730 81% - 100% AMI 545 290 -255 > 100% AMI 1,815 165 -1,650 ownershiP unitmismAtch Unit numbers are reflective of vacancy within the market Source: HUD Comprehensive Housing Affordability Strategy Source: American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates 2018 Data not updated in 2023 Housing Study Data not updated in 2023 Housing Study 57 Ownership Market Source: HUD Comprehensive Housing Affordability StrategyData not updated in 2023 Housing Study owner housing stress 77%71%76% 65%58%64% 23%29%24% 35%42%36% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Mon�cello Buffalo Becker Big Lake St. Michael Wright County Cost Burden (30% - 50% Income Toward Housing Cost)Severe Cost Burden (>50% Income Toward Housing Cost) levels oF owner cost Burden Source: American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates 2018 Among those 480 Monticello owner households that are cost burdened, less than one-quarter are severely cost burdened (spending 50% or more of income on housing). This is again reflective of relatively more affordable housing costs in the City compared to peer communities, and has been decreasing year-to-year. Combined, these factors display relative historic stability within the ownership market. For the majority of those that own their homes, current housing costs are relatively affordable. With that in mind, housing prices are appreciating to a point where more typical homes within the community are becoming more unaffordable to the typical household - due to a combination of slight reduction in income, increased housing demand, and increasing housing prices in the ownership market. Municipality # with CostBurden(30%-50%) # with Severe Burden(>50%) % Severely Cost Burdened Monticello 370 110 23% Buffalo 455 190 29% Becker 170 55 24% Big Lake 465 255 35% St. Michael 415 295 42% Wright County 4,065 2,330 36% cost Burdened owner households Most recent dataset vintage 2016. Less detailed data from 2018 on pg. 52 indicates higher rates of owner cost burden overall.Source: HUD Comprehensive Housing Affordability StrategyData not updated in 2023 Housing Study Data not updated in 2023 Housing Study Housing Needs and DemandCity of Monticello 58 The U.S. Department of Housing & Urban Development tracks household incomes compared to the cost of the housing unit they live in. Per HUD data, within the City the largest share of ownership homes in the market (1,810 units) should be affordable to households earning about 50% of the 13-county metro’s AMI ($52,000 for a family of 4). Of these housing units, only about 20% are owned by households that fall into that income category. The remainder are owned by higher- income households, with nearly 45% being owned by households earning above the 100% of the 11-county area median income. These homes are extremely affordable to higher-income households, and provide desirable affordable ownership options for high income earners. However, it does provide increased competition that precludes lower-income earners from entering the owner housing market. Overall, the market at all levels is dominated by households earning over 80% AMI (68% of all owners). These households are consuming units in the housing market that are very affordable to them - their relative incomes significantly lower housing cost burden, and income shares spent on housing costs are extremely low. While this is beneficial to these households, it does strain the market and ultimately increase sales prices in all housing ranges, from entry-level homes upward. Consistent with insights from the 2020 Community Survey, residents feel that the largest negative aspect to the housing market in Monticello is ownership housing affordability (45% of all respondents), with 52% of those with an opinion indicating that affordable housing is becoming increasing harder to find year-to-year. As the market is restricted, community concerns of affordability and availability are connected as higher-income owner households can outbid lower-income households for homes that would otherwise be affordable at a lower rate. owner unit consumPtion 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% - 30% AMI 31% - 50% AMI 51% - 80% AMI 81% - 100% AMI > 100% AMI ownershiP unit consumPtion (By income) uni t s household income Source: HUD Comprehensive Housing Affordability StrategyData not updated in 2023 Housing Study 59 Ownership Market owner unit consumPtion disPArity in ownership opportunity is apparent when looking at the distribution of homes, by value, that have a lien on the property. The table above shows the household incomes of occupants of ownership housing both with and without a mortgage. Difference in mortgage status can generally be thought of as “purchased in the past 15-30 years” for homes with a mortgage and “purchased more than 15-30 years ago” for homes without a mortgage. For units with a mortgage (representing more recent home purchases), 57% were purchased by households earning more than the 11-county median family income ($103,400 for a family of 4). However, homeowners > 100% AMI own only 38% of homes without a mortgage. While some of this discrepancy is due to reduced income for retirees who have paid off their homes, it is also reflective of appreciating values within the market over a typical 30-year amortization period - those homes that have resold have sold for more. Tightening lending standards and unit availability do have an impact on lower-income households within the market, but many are finding homes that they can purchase, especially households at middle-incomes that are greater than 50% of the 13-county median income. Ownership Units 0% - 30%31% - 50%51% - 80%81% - 100%>100% Affordable at 50% 50 60 215 315 595 Affordable at 51% - 80%25 25 210 125 710 Affordable at 81% - 100%0 0 60 4 135 Affordable at > 100%0 0 0 0 25 Affordable at 50% 80 165 35 60 230 Affordable at 51% - 80%0 85 35 40 60 Affordable at 81% - 100%0 25 25 0 40 Affordable at > 100%0 0 0 0 15 ownershiP unit household occuPAncy Owner Household Income Un i t s W i t h a M o r t g a g e Un i t s W i t h o u t a M o r t g a g e Source: HUD Comprehensive Housing Affordability Strategy This table represents 2,554 ownership units with a mortgage, and 895 with no mortgage or other lien on the property. Data not updated in 2023 Housing Study Housing Needs and DemandCity of Monticello 60 sPAtiAl AFFordABility APProximAte vAlue of homes is mapped above, using assessment records. While this is not a perfect approximation of sales/cost value within the market, it does offer a baseline for estimation and comparison. This spatial availability of homes by market cost shows where opportunity for affordability exists in the City’s housing market for residents at different income levels. This map (also in Appendix A), illustrates the general affordability of smaller and attached-unit housing options within the community. In general, the more affordable ownership options are within the downtown core of the City, as well as in scattered attached-unit housing development throughout different neighborhoods. Maintaining this range of options is key in ensuring new development remains affordable for households at various income levels. !#"94 !#"94 S H E R B U R N E C O U N T YWRIGHT C O U N T Y ××39 ××75 ××75 ××43 ××44 ××101 ××39 ××116 ××18 ××212 ××106 ××14 ××105 ××27 ××11 ××50 ××2222 ××17 ××189 ××287 EBROADWAY ST W B R OADWAYST CSAH 43 90TH ST NE 7TH ST CSAH 14 SCHOOL BLVD 85TH ST NE E BROADWAY ST CR-50 PA R K B LV D CHELSEA RD W RIVER ST CSAH 39 200T H S T HARDING AVE NE BRIARWOODAVE NE CAMERON ST ./10 ./10 Printed By: smorrison, File: \\msa-ps.com\fs\Project\13\13731\13731002\GIS\13731002_AssessedValue_ResProperties_OwnerOcc_202000820.mxd Print Date: 8/20/2020 Data Sources:Minnesota GIS DataWright County GIS & Assessor Data Monticello, Wright County, MN Owner Occupied Residential Properties Total Property Value Streets Interstate State Road US Highway Water Body Parcel Boundary Monticello Right of Way Total Property Value Less than $100,000 $100,000 - $200,000 $200,001 - $250,000 $250,001 - $300,000 $300,001 - $350,000 $350,000 - $450,000 Greater than $450,000 No Assessed Value Non Residential Parcels Monticello Housing Study 0 0.25 0.5 Miles Unit Affordability Low Cost High Cost Affordable up to 50% AMI -$173,800 Affordable at 51% - 80% AMI 173,801 $277,950 Affordable at 81% - 100% AMI $277,951 $347,500 Affordable above 100% AMI $347,501 - ownershiP units, 13-county AMI calculation shown is applicable to the entire 13-County Metro based on a household size of 4 persons. Data not updated in 2023 Housing Study Data not updated in 2023 Housing Study. Map does not reflect changes since 2020. 61 Ownership Market AFFordABility trends generAl meAsures And trends in homeowner affordability have to do with market conditions in real estate markets and prospective buyer incomes at the time of purchase. Looking at housing in the City of Monticello, home values historically peaked pre-Great Recession before seeing a decrease in value through the recession. Both townhome and single family units have regained lost value associated with the recession, surpassing previous market highs by 2015 and continuing to rise since. Within the City, many households have remained in their home for long periods of time, with many having been in their unit since 2009 or earlier. These represent long-tenured homeowners who are residing in their homes longer than the 7-year national average. There is also an increasing number of homeowners who have moved into their home after 2015 with the development of new units. $- $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 $300,000 $350,000 $400,000 Single-Family Townhome 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Single-Family)6 per. Mov. Avg. (Townhome) single-unit & townhome mArket vAlue yeAr owner moved into unit Source: American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates 2021 Source: Multiple Listing Service 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 Housing Needs and DemandCity of Monticello 62 AFFordABility trends while unit Price is an important factor in housing affordability, unit price must be compared with incomes and affordability levels to reflect a true measure of housing access. The City of Monticello experienced rising incomes for residents coming out of the recession - and for a time these incomes rose at a rate ahead of the real estate market. When single-family and townhome units reached the bottom of their market dip in 2012, both were affordable to many local households based on income. In 2012, the median single-unit home was within the affordability limit of not only the median household, but also within the limits of households at 80% and 50% of the City median income. Households at 50% AMI had seen an increase in incomes so that the median condo/townhouse unit was an attainable method of homeownership through 2015. Since 2014 however, house value growth has drastically outpaced income growth for the same period, most significantly since 2020, to the point that the median single-unit home is no longer affordable to even the median household, much less the an 80% AMI household in the City. This is largely reflective of regional forces and increased demand that appreciate home values, while local income conditions have caused the median Monticello household to see a slight reduction in real income over recent years. Of note, the appreciation in market value of both single-unit detached and condo/townhouse units has continued to rise at a steady rate. The relative consistency in appreciation has more than doubled housing prices for entry into the ownership market over the past decade. Incomes have risen in the past few years, but not at the same rate as housing costs, which have grown more quickly. This is a challenge to ownership opportunity and affordable options. single-unit & townhome AFFordABility $- $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 $300,000 $350,000 $400,000 Single-Family Value Townhome Value Median Income Affordability Limit Low Income Affordability Limit Very Low Income Affordability Limit Source: Multiple Listing Service; 2010-2021 Affordability Limits are based on American Community Survey Estimates 2010-21. 2022 and 2023 Affordability Limits are based on estimates of 2021 income adjusted for inflation using the Consumer Price Index 63 Ownership Market AFFordABility trends increAsing sAles Prices of houses in the City directly impact monthly owner cost and affordability. While some homes are owned free and clear with monthly costs consisting solely of taxes and insurance, new borrowers are paying increasingly more for housing. Appreciation as well as the large cost of new construction places ownership entry costs into higher brackets year to year, and represent many of the higher monthly owner costs recorded. By cost per square foot, there has been a $97 increase as tracked through home sales since 2010. This increase is higher in the City of Monticello than in any of the peer communities in this study, as well as for rates within the County. -$40 -$20 $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 Mon�cello Big Lake Buffalo Saint Michael Wright Country increAse in single-unit Price Per sq. Ft monthly owner cost Source: American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates 2021 Source: Multiple Listing Service 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 Less than $200 $200 to $399 $400 to $599 $600 to $799 $800 to $999 $1,000 to $1,249 $1,250 to $1,499 $1,500 to $1,999 $2,000 to $2,499 $2,500 or more Housing Needs and DemandCity of Monticello 64 entry-level AFFordABility $- $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 $300,000 $350,000 Mon�cello Buffalo Becker Big Lake Saint Michael stArter home vAlue Source: Zillow Data and Research (MLS Aggregator) lower-income households that own their housing commonly occupy what is referred to as the “starter home” market. For purposes of this study, this is tracked as the “Bottom Tier Home Value” and is the median of the 5th to 35th percentile of all home values within the City. These homes followed the same general trend both going into and coming out of the recession - showing consistent steady increases in cost over the past decade. Amongst peer communities, Monticello still has the lowest-cost entry point into the ownership market, even considering appreciation. However, the “starter home” market is still becoming increasingly unaffordable for those who live in the City. As of the most recent data and estimates (2023), the median starter-home cost is just out of reach of the affordability limit for a City household earning 80% of the median income ($269,000 home entry cost vs. $263,000 purchase limit). As housing costs continue to rise throughout the market, Monticello households below the AMI will be increasingly precluded or “priced-out” of ownership opportunities in the City, consistent with occupancy and consumption records. HouseholdIncome With Mortgage Without Mortgage 0% - 50% AMI 200 330 51% - 80% AMI 265 85 81% - 100% AMI 215 45 > 100% AMI 429 110 occuPAnt incomes oF houses AFFordABle to 50% Ami households Source: HUD Comprehensive Housing Affordability Strategy 65 Ownership Market Source: HUD Comprehensive Housing Affordability Strategy house AvAilABility single-unit home AvAilABility as tracked by the Multiple listing Service is often inversely related to prices - as inventory decreases, prices increase. As the local housing market was coming out of the recession, there was a market slowdown - though this slowdown (as represented by months’ of supply) still indicated a balanced market. Months’ supply is generally considered to be balanced when there are 4-6 months’ of inventory in the market. As that lessens, it is indicative of increased competition for available homes in what is often referred to as a “seller’s market”. Since peaking in 2011 at more than three months, the average days on market has dropped to a steady 2-3 weeks on market over the past 4 years. There is seasonal variation within the data that reflect common market periods, but time on market has generally decreased to a point where during peak real estate season, houses have averaged less than 3 weeks since 2016. This increased sales activity is directly reflected in the months of supply metric, as it is the balance between inventory and demand (number of sales). Together, these metrics indicate a competitive market with increased competition among buyers that is causing cost inflation well beyond the 2% average U.S. inflation rate. A slight increase in months supply in recent years may be due to the increase in units coming online within the City which can signal a return to a more balanced market. 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 Mo n t hs S u p ply Da ys on M a r ket Days on Market Months Supply single-FAmily AvAilABility 5-yeAr APPreciAtion on mediAn sF home (By sAles Price): 9.3% AnnuAlly $130,450 5-yeAr AverAge APPreciAtion rAte on mediAn sF home: Source: Multiple Listing Service Source: Multiple Listing Service Housing Needs and DemandCity of Monticello 66 house AvAilABility $- $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 $300,000 $350,000 $400,000 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 30 Yr. Fixed Mortgage Rate Monthly Inventory Median Sales Price 3.7%4.5%2.7%6.8%5.5% monthly inventory Source: Multiple Listing Service inventory of single-family houses for sale slowly decreased from 2015 to 2021, with a slight increase in the last two years. As inventory decreased, the median sales price showed steady corresponding increases - with fewer homes available, and steady demand, markets shift toward favoring sellers through increased competition and appreciation. As available supply has slightly increased over the past two years, there was still a marked increase in the median sales price due to the skyrocketing demand for home buying coming out of the COVID-19 pandemic amid very low interest rates. With recent high interest rates, the sales price should stabilize. From January 2015 to January 2021 during the period of decreasing inventory, the median home appreciated at a rate of 10.2% annually. The recent slight increase in inventory has correlated with appreciated price at a rate of 5.2% annually for the median home. This shows that increasing inventory helps to ease pressures on the market that cause cost increases, though the months of supply metric indicates there is still demand for units in the market that will further shift buyer/seller indices toward a more balanced market. townhome AvAilABility And cost Source: Multiple Listing Service 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 $- $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 Months Supp ly Pr i c e/S q . � Price/Sq. �.Months Supply 67 Ownership Market house sAles sAle to list Price rAtios also display trends in the ownership market that indicate increased competition on an year-to-year basis - though stabilizing as inventory of units on the market has also stabilized. Since coming out of the recession, sellers have generally accepted offers that have been more than 95% of the asking price for single- family homes in the City. The greatest peak in this ratio came amid the COVID-19 pandemic in the summer of 2021 when sellers accepted offers that were nearly 105% of their list price. With increasing supply coming in 2022, the sale to list price ratio dipped slightly, tracking with the slight decrease in median sales price. This is consistent with growth in number of units and indicative of a healthy market. townhome Pct oF originAl Price (August 2023)100% for 3 consecutive months 100% or over for 4 consecutive months single-FAmily Pct oF originAl Price (August 2023) Source: Multiple Listing Service 85% 90% 95% 100% 105% Townhome Single-Family mediAn sAles Price comPAred to listing Source: Multiple Listing Service Housing Needs and DemandCity of Monticello 68 85% 90% 95% 100% 105% Mon�cello Big Lake Buffalo Saint Michael single FAmily sAles Price comPAred to listing, Peer communities house sAles regionAl sAles trends largely indicate a tightening (increased demand) of the market for many peer communities as well. Though Monticello’s market was slightly slower to see increased competition and increasing offers post-recession (when tracked through sale:listing ratio), it then increased to become the second community to see the median sale cost meeting asking price, behind only Big Lake. Monticello has the highest current sale:list price ratio among its peer communities, though many have shown a consistency through the past year. Off-peak sales without a large percent decrease in sales price indicates that growth potential for the region is strong, and demand is shifting into other areas. It also likely indicates that Monticello (as the community with the largest ratio) is seeing demand that it cannot fill with the existing stock, which has spillover into other regional communities (both peer communities and others), although this is impossible to tell solely from data. townhome Pct oF originAl Price in Peer communities (july 2020) 99% in July 2020 100% for 4 consecutive months single-FAmily Pct oF originAl Price in Peer communities (july 2020) Source: Multiple Listing Service Source: Multiple Listing Service 69 Ownership Market Source: Multiple Listing Service mortgAge stAtus Age oF householders is one of the aspects that impacts mortgage status. While the average householder nationally remains in their home for 7 years, many members of the community purchase homes to age into them, not for capital investment, but to provide consistent shelter costs throughout their ownership. The City of Monticello has a large number of owner households with a mortgage on their property, consistent with the age range of the owners themselves. With 69% of all owner-occupied homes being owned by residents under the age of 55, the largest portion of the ownership market will look to either remain in their homes, or consider move-up housing options. The remaining 30% of owner households 55 or older may choose to age-in-place, while some will require other housing options in the community with age-accessibility options. The 2020 Community Survey indicated at different points desire for zero-entry, patio, and rambler style homes that serve aging populations, and capture well the construction styles and design features that serve aging households at various price points throughout the market. The City should take into consideration plans to best serve these community members over the next 20-30 years as more residents continue to age into this range, with nearly 3,000 additional residents expected reach this age range by 2050. 75%75% 84%88% 75%73% 25%25% 16%12% 25%27% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Mon�cello Buffalo Becker Big Lake St. Michael Wright Coutny With a Mortgage Without a Mortgage mortgAge stAtus 21% 48% 23% 7% Percent 35 or Under 35 to 54 55 to 74 75 or Over ownershiP mArket - Age 21% 48% 23% 7% Percent 35 or Under 35 to 54 55 to 74 75 or Over 75%75% 84%88% 75%73% 25%25% 16%12% 25%27% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Mon�cello Buffalo Becker Big Lake St. Michael Wright Coutny With a Mortgage Without a Mortgage Source: American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates 2018 Source: American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates 2018 Data not updated in 2023 Housing Study Data not updated in 2023 Housing Study Housing Needs and DemandCity of Monticello 70 ownershiP unit tyPes ownershiP unit tyPe distriBution across the City shows that the majority of owner households live in single unit detached homes, though the city has a healthy and growing number of attached unit homes as well. Together, these two unit types make up 89% of all ownership unit types, in the City - the large remainder being manufactured housing (8% of all ownership housing). While the Condo as an ownership structure type within the market has never been prevalent in the City, the lack of 2-19 unit structures presents an ownership opportunity for denser redevelopment in areas of the downtown while maintaining ownership options through gradual redevelopment and density increase where financially feasible. !#"94 !#"94 S H E R B U R N E C O U N T YWRIGHT C O U N T Y ××39 ××43 ××39 ××18 ××212 ××106 ××11 ××50 ××14 ××2222 ××17 ××189 ××287 EBROADWAY ST W B R OADWAYST CSAH 43 90TH ST NE 7TH ST CSAH 14 SCHOOL BLVD 85TH ST NE E BROADWAY ST CR-50 PA R K BLV D CHELSEA RD W RIVER ST CSAH 39 200T H ST HARDING AVE NE BRIARWOODAVE NE CAMERON ST ./10 ./10 Printed By: smorrison, File: \\msa-ps.com\fs\Project\13\13731\13731002\GIS\13731002_ResProperties_byNoUnits_OwnerOcc_202000820.mxd Print Date: 8/20/2020 Data Sources:Minnesota GIS DataWright County GIS & Assessor Data Monticello, Wright County, MN Owner Occupied Residential Properties By Number of Units Streets Interstate State Road US Highway Water Body Parcel Boundary Surrounding Municipality Monticello Number of Units Single Unit Detached Single Unit Attached Manufactured Home Park Right of Way Monticello Housing Study 0 0.25 0.5 Miles Unit Type Number of Units % of Total Owner Occupied Ownership as % of Unit Type 1-unit detached 2,910 77.1%87.9% 1-unit attached 467 12.4%72.1% 2-4 unit 67 1.8%65.7% 5-19 unit 17 0.5%3.2% 20+ unit 8 0.2%1.9% Mobile Home 303 8.0%84.6% ownershiP units - tyPe Source: American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates 2021 Data not updated in 2023 Housing Study. Map does not reflect changes since 2020. 71 Ownership Market Source: American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates 2021 the most common household size for owner households within the City is 2-person households. Which often represents younger ownership markets - areas where young family households with no children will locate to be able to afford a “starter home” within their price range before having children. Knowing that the market in Monticello is generally affordable when compared to the larger region, the large number of 1-person and 2-person households is typical under that context. These smaller household types make up 57% of all owner households in the City, slightly more than the County as a whole, and more than all peer communities. As these households continue to undergo expansion, or changes in life circumstance, they often look to move up into options that afford more space to grow. This includes 3- and 4- bedroom units as family size grows. Additionally, there has been a trend of commuter-share households who may prefer the housing cost and community character of Monticello, who will continue to telecommute or work from home in evolving employment markets, which may increase need for housing size over time at a rate unpredicted by needs based solely upon household size requirements. ownershiP housing size owner household size 19% 38%14% 29% MonƟcello 1-Person 2-Person 3-Person 4-or-more Person 16% 38%16% 31% Wright County 1-Person 2-Person 3-Person 4-or-more Person owner household size Wright CountyBuffaloBecker Big Lake St. Michael 17% 38%17% 29% Buffalo 1-Person 2-Person 3-Person 4-or-more Person 16% 37%15% 32% Becker 1-Person 2-Person 3-Person 4-or-more Person 11% 29% 26% 33% Big Lake 1-Person 2-Person 3-Person 4-or-more Person 11% 29% 16% 45% St. Michael 1-Person 2-Person 3-Person 4-or-more Person 19% 38%14% 29% MonƟcello 1-Person 2-Person 3-Person 4-or-more Person 16% 38%16% 31% Wright County 1-Person 2-Person 3-Person 4-or-more Person 19% 38%14% 29% MonƟcello 1-Person 2-Person 3-Person 4-or-more Person 16% 38%16% 31% Wright County 1-Person 2-Person 3-Person 4-or-more Person 19% 38%14% 29% MonƟcello 1-Person 2-Person 3-Person 4-or-more Person 16% 38%16% 31% Wright County 1-Person 2-Person 3-Person 4-or-more Person 17% 38%17% 29% Buffalo 1-Person2-Person3-Person4-or-more Person 16% 37%15% 32% Becker 1-Person 2-Person 3-Person 4-or-more Person 11% 29% 26% 33% Big Lake 1-Person2-Person3-Person4-or-more Person 11% 29% 16% 45% St. Michael 1-Person 2-Person 3-Person 4-or-more Person 17% 38%17% 29% Buffalo 1-Person 2-Person 3-Person 4-or-more Person 16% 37%15% 32% Becker 1-Person 2-Person 3-Person 4-or-more Person 11% 29% 26% 33% Big Lake 1-Person 2-Person 3-Person 4-or-more Person 11% 29% 16% 45% St. Michael 1-Person 2-Person 3-Person 4-or-more Person 17% 38%17% 29% Buffalo 1-Person2-Person3-Person4-or-more Person 16% 37%15% 32% Becker 1-Person 2-Person 3-Person 4-or-more Person 11% 29% 26% 33% Big Lake 1-Person2-Person3-Person4-or-more Person 11% 29% 16% 45% St. Michael 1-Person 2-Person 3-Person 4-or-more Person Source: American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates 2018 Source: American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates 2018 Data not updated in 2023 Housing Study Data not updated in 2023 Housing Study Housing Needs and DemandCity of Monticello 72 ownershiP housing size numBer oF Bedrooms - owner 0% 20% 42% 31% 7% 1-Bedroom 2-Bedroom 3-Bedroom 4-Bedroom 5+ Bedroom the most common bedroom size for owner- occupied housing in the City is in 3-bedroom units (42%), followed by 4-bedroom units (31%) and 2-bedroom units (20%). Ownership housing often has a larger size (more bedrooms) than rental units, and is a component of the preference for families in commonly seeking out ownership housing units rather than rental. While smaller-unit ownership housing is generally more affordable both within existing and new-construction markets, balance between small and large bedroom units within a community helps to accommodate households who wish to remain long-term residents through changes in need and requirements. Manufactured homes likely make up a sizable portion of smaller ownership housing units listed as 1- and 2-bedroom units (up to 25% of these categories). Development of smaller-size single-unit structures outside of manufactured home communities are an important component of the housing market, especially as prices continue to appreciate so that options are available for families without children, aging households have the option to downsize, and lower-income households have the ability to enter the ownership market earlier. 0% 20% 42% 31% 7% 1-Bedroom 2-Bedroom 3-Bedroom 4-Bedroom 5+ Bedroom 0% 20% 42% 31% 7% 1-Bedroom 2-Bedroom 3-Bedroom 4-Bedroom 5+ Bedroom Source: American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates 2018owner units By Bedroom size - 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1-Bedroom 2-Bedroom 3-Bedroom 4-Bedroom 5+ Bedroom Source: American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates 2021 Data not updated in 2023 Housing Study Data not updated in 2023 Housing Study 73 Other Populations 73 Source: American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates 2018Data not updated in 2023 Housing Study 73 Housing Needs and DemandCity of Monticello 7474 otheRMARket sectoRs Demand & Supply 74 75 Other Populations homelessness in Greater Minnesota is often not a central part of the housing conversation, as rates of homelessness are much lower than those within the Twin Cities metro. However, the local Continuum of Care (Central CoC) still tracks and reports homelessness within the community. A vital statistic is the annual PIT (Point-In-Time) count, which takes the total number of persons experiencing homelessness on a given night in the community. This data include those who are experiencing homelessness but sheltered. For instance, all homeless individuals and families in Wright County during the PIT in 2019 were in some form of shelter - and all households with children reported were in transitional housing. It is important to note that the PIT does not always capture all homeless households, especially in more rural areas. Common categories that count as homeless, though not “literal homelessness” include doubling up with friends or family, stays in hotels, and other types of “recovery” homes - although these households may not have a fixed, permanent nighttime residence. homelessness united wAy wright county community snAPshot: • Over 6,000 Wright County households live in poverty • One in three homeless persons continue to work at a job • Wright County ranks 10th in population, but 5th in child protection cases • One-third of Wright County homeless are children, half under the age of 5 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Children under 18 Young Adults (18-24) Adults (over 24) Young Adults (18-24) Adults (over 24) Households with Children Households Without Children homelessness - wright county 2019 Pit Source: Central MN Continuum of CareData not updated in 2023 Housing Study Housing Needs and DemandCity of Monticello 76 trAditionAl meAsures of homelessness are focused on assisting households and individuals in finding housing, stabilizing employment, and arranging long-term solutions. But there are different risk factors associated with homelessness, which include financial insecurity and housing cost burden. Per the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, households who are extremely low-income (<30% AMI), severely cost burdened, renter households are those who are at the greatest risk of facing homelessness, and are classified “at-risk”. In quickly appreciating and tight housing markets, extremely low-income households are likely to be the first “squeezed out”, and income shocks are more impactful to a household remaining in housing. In most recent data (2016), there are 200 households in the City of Monticello that meet this definition of being at-risk of homelessness - those with the lowest incomes, whose housing costs make up the highest portion of their annual incomes. At-risk oF homelessness 200 255 150 200 190 225 180 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 At-Risk Households Point-in-time count The number of these at-risk households has largely remained consistent on a yearly basis, perhaps even slightly declining over time. As recent income estimates show slight decreases, while housing markets have shown increased costs, it would be expected that the number of households already living in the community that classify would increase - especially under consideration that this AMI standard is for the 11-county metro, which has largely shown income growth over the same timeframe. If income in the 11-county metro continues to show strong growth, and local incomes remain consistent or decrease slightly, more local households fall into the definition of low-income categories used by Minnesota Housing Finance Agency and HUD which set 30%, 50%, 60%, and 80% AMI income standards for the region. Source: Central MN Continuum of CareData not updated in 2023 Housing Study 77 Other Populations senior households are anticipated to have the largest percentage growth through 2050. Many are current homeowners, and some will require different accommodations, specialized housing, or programming to assist aging-in-place. Senior housing generally refers to the combination of services and housing that allow seniors to continue to live comfortably. This ranges from continuing to live in their own home with virtually no services, townhomes and apartments that offer the ability to “downsize” living quarters, specialized housing units with limited services, and different types of assisted living facilities. Generally, independent-living senior facilities attract residents age 65 and older, while more specialized facilities (assisted living, etc.) attract residents who are age 80 and over and need assistance with daily living activities. The Community Basics section of this plan detailed expected population increases for senior populations in the City. In addition, growth in population aged 35 and older often sees an accompanying increase in senior populations as persons aged 35-54 often have parents who will locate closer to their children for care as they age into more intensive services and care. As varying levels of services are included with different types of housing for aging populations, typical affordability standards do not apply. Often senior households will pay up to 50% of their income for market rate senior housing, up to 90% of their income for specialized and assisted living, often funded in part through the sale of a home they owned. Many households age 62+ in the City are still homeowners, who have not yet sold homes to fund other housing or services, while those 85+ are more likely to be renters as they continue to age and need alternate accommodations. Over the next 30 years, approximately 1,500 residents will age into the 80+ age category, and may look to sell their housing for other living options. Aging PoPulAtions 110 100 29560120 15 10 175 85 15 75 10 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 Elderly Family Elderly Non-Family Elderly Family Elderly Non-Family <30% AMI 31%-50% AMI 51%-80% AMI >80% AMI Owner Renter 62+ household income And tenure - monticello Source: HUD Comprehensive Housing Affordability Strategy hou s e h o l d s Housing Needs and DemandCity of Monticello 78 Aging PoPulAtions mAny Aging households will be able to use funds from home sales for other housing options. While home value increases make it more difficult for lower-income households to enter the housing market, it also means that senior homeowners have access to extra capital through the rapid appreciation of homes, and will have more funds available to ensure care as they continue to age. Assuming that a senior household owns their home free and clear, and their home sells for a median value of $265,450 (circa 2020), they would be able to generate approximately $5,360 in annual income from a 2% interest producing account ($446.50 per month) to supplement housing costs. Monticello’s 2020 mill rate (at the highest district value) signifies an additional $2,900 annually they would have already been paying for housing cost, which brings their monthly total housing allowance to $690 without increasing share of income spent on housing. Importantly, many of the households who might otherwise have sold their home during the past decade may have delayed plans for other housing options due to decreased housing values associated with the recession, choosing to continue to age-in-place. With recent appreciation of home values in the City, these households may be more interested in sale of their home over the coming years should demand continue to drive appreciation closer to the 8% average annual mark post-recession. In the next 10 years, this does not represent a drastic number of housing units that may be transitioning - likely between 125 and 145 units, or 12-15 annually. However long-term, especially as other 55+ age groups continue to age, this could represent upwards of 30 additional units per year opening to new owner households, which will help alleviate some market pressures through transition of existing housing stock - including more housing stock in desirable locations at various price points that had not been on the market for many years. 490 208 446 196 48 156 176 127 100 63 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 55 to 59 60 to 64 65 to 74 75 to 84 85 and over Owner Renter 55+ detAiled household cAtegories - monticello Source: American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates 2021 79 Other Populations disABility Persons with A disABility do not inherently require access to specific housing types or accommodations, dependent upon the type and severity of the disability. More commonly, persons with a disability receive services and accommodations related to the disability as they continue to age and require more specialized forms of housing. This is due to the percentage of population, by age, that experience a disability being disproportionately higher in aging and senior households. When housing units are constructed, they are not traditionally built using methods that easily accommodate aging populations and often require renovation such as wider doorways, lower countertops, and zero entry showers/baths. For instance, Monticello offers density, height, and parking bonuses/reductions for new construction with significant percentages of units built to universal design standards (among other green building standards) within overlay districts. These standards will remain an integral component of choice for aging households over the next 30 years. Age Cohort 2018 Projected Percent Increase Projected 2050 0 - 9 Years 2,292 12.2%2,573 10 - 19 Years 1,876 -3.7%1,806 20 - 34 Years 2,757 11.2%3,066 35 - 49 Years 2,598 17.5%3,053 50 - 64 Years 2,274 -26.5%1,672 65 - 79 Years 1,094 55.7%1,703 80 and Over 601 252.6%2,120 Age Projections *Tied to projections in Wright County, not directly to 2018 estimates. 3.4% 6.2% 14.0%16.4% 52.6% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% < 17 years 18 to 34 35 to 64 65 to 74 75 and over PercentAge oF Age grouP with A disABility - monticello Source: American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates 2018 Source: MN State Demographic CenterData not updated in 2023 Housing Study Data not updated in 2023 Housing Study Housing Needs and DemandCity of Monticello 80 AccessiBility new mArket rAte And workForce units in the City, both ownership and rental, will likely see an increased demand for universal design features due to projected age increases for residents - both current and within the larger County (due to hospital and transportation accessibility). Current City trends show that while there are households containing a member with a disability in all income ranges, there is especially a need at both the highest and lowest income categories, indicating need for both affordable and market rate housing options. While lower-income households often have disabilities go unreported or undiagnosed, there are residents at all ages in households of all incomes that require access to appropriate housing design to meet their needs. Many middle- income households may additionally fall into lower-income categories as income becomes more limited in retirement. There is no database on a local level for units currently accessible (due to the nature of private market retrofits at varying levels), though estimates nationally place accessible single family homes at just 1% of the total housing stock. This is important as, even at advanced ages, many residents choose to continue to remain in their own housing. For those that do move at advanced ages, including in the ownership market, over 50% choose to actively seek out residential units with accessibility features such as no-step entries, level style door handles, accessible shelving and electrical, and single floor living. As the population of the City continues to age, and parents of residents move to be closer to their primary caretaker, ensuring continued supply of units with accessibility features should remain a priority. 145 85 85 200 95 90 95 95 30 65 115 175 195 55 85 105 0 50 100 150 200 250 < 30% AMI 31% - 50% AMI 51% - 80% AMI > 80% AMI Hearing/Vision Impairment Ambulatory LimitaƟon CogniƟve LimitaƟon Self-Care/Independent Living LimitaƟon disABility & income - monticello hou s e h o l d s Source: HUD Comprehensive Housing Affordability StrategyData not updated in 2023 Housing Study 81 Local Impacts Page intentionally left blank. 81 Housing Needs and DemandCity of Monticello 82 locAl iMpActs on Housing 82 83 Local Impacts new construction new construction in the city has increased significantly post-recession, with the single-unit detached market being the first residential construction sector to rebound with significant starts in 2012. Since 2012, the attached-unit market also started seeing increases in starts annually in the City, with every year bringing at least a handful of new units online. New single-unit permits peaked in 2014, briefly declined and then peaked again in 2021. In recent years, the attached-unit market has made up 50% or more of all new single-unit construction making up for a period of construction dominated by single-unit attached. While there is still a healthy amount of construction activity in the single-unit market on an annual basis, construction costs have been increasing - and therefore ownership and rental costs as well. This is one of the forces regionally and nationally pushing toward attached-unit construction, as efficiencies in construction and decreased land cost create some cost-savings in the development process. Attached units are a key component of a healthy market, especially in Monticello, where generally lower regional incomes combined with increased demand from in-migration means that more affordable options are needed to ensure current residents can continue to call Monticello home. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023* Single-Unit A�ached Single-Unit Detached *Data from January 2023-June 2023 new single-unit Permits By tyPe Source: City of Monticello*Data includes January 2023-June 2023 Housing Needs and DemandCity of Monticello 84 new unit construction new unit construction over the past decade has also consisted of development in the multi- unit or multi-family market. This development primarily occurs to supplement the rental supply with newer options, as many of the existing rental units in the City are in older multi-unit buildings. Multifamily development in the City has historically existed in older housing stock, and as residents commuting to the metro continues to increase, expanding and diversifying options across market segments helps to expand opportunity for a variety of household types across all incomes, family types, and preferences. Recent market rate developments in the City report healthy lease up rates with less vacancy required than expected in development assumptions, and it is likely that there is a continued market for multifamily housing to continue to serve as market differentiators for the City. In years where multi-unit construction occurs, it makes up a significant portion of housing starts. 26% or more of current rental units in the market exist in 20+ unit buildings with new larger apartment buildings fueling unit development in recent years. There is also opportunity to expand construction while balancing housing options through encouragement of new single-unit rental properties both attached and detached, which currently exist in the core city as well as in subdivisions and neighborhoods throughout the City in developments known as build-to rent-units. 0 50 100 150 200 250 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023* Mul�-Unit A�ached Detached *Data from January 2023-June 2023 new unit Permits By tyPe Source: City of Monticello *Data includes January 2023-June 2023 Note: Monticello Crossings permits spread across 2015 and 2016. 85 Local Impacts new unit AFFordABility Permitted units are charged permit fees, which are based on the total cost of construction (valuation) - as market costs are largely unknowable at the time of permitting. This makes judging future affordability of proposed units somewhat difficult, as builders and developers are taking a risk in development that their investment will come online in an appreciated market to maximize returns. While there is no consistent, perfect method to anticipate future market costs based solely on the cost of construction, the basis of just construction costs adjusted for builder/developer profit show general ranges for what a buyer would pay for the type and quality of construction needed in new single-family starts regardless of location in the City. The National Association of Home Builders reports a decreasing gross profit since 2020 with current percentages at 18.2%. Using this gross profit percentage applied to valuation over the past 5 years, the chart below shows the approximate market construction cost of units (cost to buyer) that have been permitted. This is necessary to track trends in new construction, as many homes may not be directly listed with the Multiple Listing Service, but marketed and sold either before built, or directly by the developer. In recent years, the shift from low-cost to higher- cost can be seen through the number of units with higher construction costs year-to-year. 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 < $150,000 $150,001 - $200,000 $200,001 - $250,000 $250,001 - $300,000 $300,001 - $350,000 $350,001 - $450,000 > $450,000 sF new construction - construction cost to Buyer Source: City of Monticello Housing Needs and DemandCity of Monticello 86 new unit AFFordABility new unit vAluAtion since 2015 shows a decrease in new unit construction in several areas of the market - slightly less construction at the most affordable price points, slightly less construction in the highest-cost price points, and increased construction in the middle of the market. Though house construction in recent years has spanned many building sales price categories (consumer costs excluding land), in terms of affordability much construction is still higher than many households that live in the City can afford. The low end of the buyer construction cost range (<$300,000) would be “affordable” to a household earning approximately $90,000 annually, which is still above the average median household in the City. The high-end range ($350,000+), equates to affordable cost for a household earning $104,000 annually, which is nearly $20,000 greater than the median household income for the City - and does not include significant land pricing. Ownership Units 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 < $150,000 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 2 0 $150,000 - $200,000 15 25 6 10 16 29 18 0 0 $200,001 - $250,000 16 14 34 6 8 28 26 5 6 $250,001 - $300,000 7 5 6 15 10 7 16 16 7 $300,001 - $350,000 4 10 8 7 5 4 21 6 1 $350,001 - $450,000 4 6 6 3 0 0 14 5 2 > $450,000 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 new single-FAmily construction cost to Buyers Source: City of Monticello Approximate Sales Cost 87 Local Impacts Approximate Sales Cost S H E R B U R N E C O U N T Y W R I G H T C O U N T Y !#"94 !#"94 ××11 ××17 ××39 ××39 ××106 ××18 ××212 ××14 ××43 ××50 ××2222 ××189 ××287 CSAH11 PARKPLACED R H A U G A VENE RIVER VIE W L A W RIVER ST 180THAVE CR-50 20 0T H S T ORMSBEE ST S 7TH ST WRIVERST W B R OADWAYST CSAH 39 DUNDAS RD CSAH 43 FALLON AVE NE 85TH ST NE CAMERON ST EDMONSONAVENE CSAH 39 CSAH 14 EBROADWAYST OAKWOOD DR RIVERVIEW DR JASON AVE SCHOOL BLVD EBROADWAYST 120TH ST NE PA R K BLV D FENNING AVE NE JASONAVENE CHELSEA RD 85TH ST NE 196TH ST 90TH ST NE HARDING AVE NE BRI A R W O O D A VE NE CSAH 75 ./10 ./10 Printed By: smorrison, File: \\msa-ps.com\fs\Project\13\13731\13731002\GIS\13731002_AssessedValue_ResProperties_202000802.mxd Print Date: 8/2/2020 Monticello, Wright County, MN Residential Proper ties Total Property Value Streets Interstate State Road US Highway Water Body Parcel Boundary Surrounding Municipality Monticello Total Property Value Less Than $50,001 $50,000 - $200,000 $200,001 - $500,001 $500,001 - $1,000,000 $1,000,000 - $5,000,000 Greater than $5,000,001 No Assessed Value Non Residential Parcels Right of Way Monticello Housing Study 0 0.25 0.5 Miles Data Sources:Minnesota GIS DataWright County GIS & Assessor Data vAluAtion the vAluAtion of land in the City helps to portray local impact and accessibility of the housing market. Residential values have increased significantly in recent years consistent with overall market conditions, and outpacing commercial valuations by as much as 3-to-1. As assessments and valuations roll into housing cost for resident homeowners, increasing valuations can lead to increasing unaffordability for residents who own their homes, especially those with limited, fixed, or decreasing incomes. As Monticello’s median family income has remained relatively steady since 2010, this can create tension in the housing market where owners invested at the top of their affordability limits can see increases that make their current housing unaffordable. In the 2020 Community Survey, 10% of homeowner respondents indicated they had to forego other needs such as food, healthcare, or childcare to continue to be able to afford housing in the past 5 years. Appreciating housing is important to healthy markets, and provides a stable financial base for homeowners into the future. However as the capital is tied up into housing, the increased costs at rates higher than inflation and income increase can become burdensome over time. Spatially within the City, subdivision development in the residential market generally sees higher property values than areas built out in the City center, with the exception of riverfront properties. Attached-unit affordability is also shown directly in this map, as observed through categorization differences between detached and attached ownership areas. Data not updated in 2023 Housing Study. Map does not reflect changes since 2020. Housing Needs and DemandCity of Monticello 88 imProvement vAlue rAtio PArcel vAluAtion is made up of two components - land value and improvement value. While both land and improvements (buildings) generally appreciate over time, development and use trends can drastically shift associated land values over the course of decades. In practice, this means that very desirable areas have large increases in land value, while other areas grow at rates more consistent with overall inflation. This shifting land value impacts the housing market due to the overall usable life of residential buildings. Single-unit homes have a usable life of 100 years or more, while small- to mid-size multi- units buildings can have a usable life between 65 and 80 years if properly maintained. Since construction and development is based heavily on financial incentive, parcels with low Improvement:Land value ratios are more prone to redevelopment, and will often see increased pressure for teardown/rebuilds even in the single- family market. In the City, newer construction generally shows higher Improvement:Land Value ratios. This is partially due to lower land costs (location) as well as increased construction cost and buyer preference (size/bedrooms/etc.). Areas of the City that are most prepared for redevelopment are, in general, areas of the downtown and central city that have older housing stock and low ratios, while greenfield construction will increase values on the edges of the City. !#"94 !#"94 S H E R B U R N E C O U N T Y W R I G H T C O U N T Y ××11 ××17 ××39 ××39 ××106 ××18 ××212 ××14 ××43 ××50 ××2222 ××189 ××287 W RIVER ST CR-50 200T H S T 7TH ST W B R OADWAYST CSAH 43 85TH ST NE CAMERON ST CSAH 39 CSAH 14 EBROADWAY ST SCHOOL BLVD E BROADWAY ST PA R K BLV D CHELSEA RD 90TH ST NE HARDING AVE NE BRI A R W O O D AV E N E ./10 ./10 Printed By: smorrison, File: \\msa-ps.com\fs\Project\13\13731\13731002\GIS\13731002_ResProperties_ImpRatio_202000802.mxd Print Date: 8/2/2020 Monticello, Wright County, MN ResidentialProperties Improvement Ratio Streets Interstate State Road US Highway Water Body Parcel Boundary Surrounding Municipality Monticello Improvement Ratio Less than or Equal to 1.0 1.0 - 3.0 3.1 - 6.0 6.1 - 10.0 10.1 - 15.0 Greater than 15.0 No Year Built Data Non Residential Parcels Right of Way Monticello Housing Study 0 0.25 0.5 Miles Data Sources:Minnesota GIS DataWright County GIS & Assessor Data Data not updated in 2023 Housing Study. Map does not reflect changes since 2020. 89 Local Impacts !#"94 !#"94 SHERBURNE COUNTY WRIGHT COUNTY ××11 ××17 ××39 ××39 ××106 ××18 ××212 ××14 ××43 ××50 ××2222 ××189 ××287 WRIVERSTCR-50 200THST 7THST WBROADWAYST CSAH 43 85TH ST NE CAMERONST CSAH39 CSAH 14 EBROADWAY ST SCHOOLBLVD E BROADWAY ST PA R K BLV D CHELSEARD 90TH ST NE HARDING AVE NE BRI A R W O O D AV E N E ./10 ./10 Printed By: smorrison, File: \\msa-ps.com\fs\Project\13\13731\13731002\GIS\13731002_ResProperties_ImpRatio_202000802.mxd Print Date: 8/2/2020 Monticello, Wright County, MN ResidentialProperties Improvement Ratio Streets Interstate State Road US Highway Water Body Parcel Boundary Surrounding Municipality Monticello Improvement Ratio Less than or Equal to 1.0 1.0 - 3.0 3.1 - 6.0 6.1 - 10.0 10.1 - 15.0 Greater than 15.0 No Year Built Data Non Residential Parcels Right of Way Monticello Housing Study 00.250.5Miles Data Sources:Minnesota GIS DataWright County GIS & Assessor Data AvAilABle lots Aside From redeveloPment, there are parcels in the City that remain vacant and awaiting construction/development of some type. The map above shows residential parcels which have an assessed improvement value of $0 and are zoned for residential development. Some of these are already platted and serviced, while other require re-platting. Available parcels are located in several zoning districts, though the number available in each varies. Notably, there are significant numbers of parcels identified as being available within the downtown of the City. Though individual parcels, they provide opportunity for slight increases in density that supports other downtown development. This analysis is largely focused on showing which parcels are available for potential development, and is not intended to be all-encompassing. The City maintains a map of available residential parcels that have been platted in subdivisions which contains more detailed information on specific numbers of units available for construction in each. A full-size scalable version of this map is located in the appendix to better identify parcels with potential for development opportunity. !#"94 !#"94 S H E R B U R N E C O U N T YWRIGHT C O U N T Y ××39 ××43 ××39 ××18 ××212 ××106 ××11 ××50 ××14 ××2222 ××17 ××189 ××287 EBROADWAY ST W B R OADWAYST CSAH 43 90TH ST NE 7TH ST CSAH 14 SCHOOL BLVD 85TH ST NE E BROADWAY ST CR-50 PA R K B LV D CHELSEA RD W RIVER ST CSAH 39 200TH S T HARDING AVE NE BRIARWOODAVE NE CAMERON ST ./10 ./10 Printed By: smorrison, File: \\msa-ps.com\fs\Project\13\13731\13731002\GIS\13731002_ResProperties_Available_202001008.mxd Print Date: 10/8/2020 Data Sources:Minnesota GIS DataWright County GIS & Assessor Data Monticello, Wright County, MN AvailableResidential Proper ties Streets Interstate State Road US Highway Water Body Parcel Boundary Surrounding Municipality Monticello Residential Vacant Land Single - Unit Bank Owned Right of Way Monticello Housing Study 0 0.25 0.5 Miles Data not updated in 2023 Housing Study. Map does not reflect changes since 2020. Housing Needs and DemandCity of Monticello 90 Without action, excessive local barriers drive up housing costs, undermining affordable housing at most income levels, and resulting in declines in homeownership. Demonstrated success in addressing these challenges can help overcome apprehension about neighborhoods evolving and growing through new development. - 2016 White House Housing Development Toolkit Updated: February 2020 Jim Thares | Jim.Thares@ci.monticello.mn.us | (763) 271-3254Properties for Sale Legend EDA Owned - Guided Downtown EDA Owned - Guided Residential City Owned Parking Lots 1.1. 2.2. 3.3. 4.4. 5.5. 6.6.9.9. 10.10. 11.11. 12.12. 13.13. 14.14. 15.15.16.16. 17.17.18.18. 19.19.7.7. 8.8. | Guided Downtown/Residential 1 155-010-017011 City of Monticello 0.47 $0.00 CCD 2 155-010-050011 Monticello EDA 0.19 $0.00 CCD 3 155-010-054011 Monticello EDA 0.25 $0.00 CCD 4 155-010-036090 Monticello EDA 0.10 $0.00 CCD 5 155-010-052071 Monticello EDA 0.22 $0.00 CCD 6 155-010-034130 / 155-010-034140 / 155-010-034150 Monticello EDA 0.36 $0.00 CCD 7 155-010-034102 Monticello EDA 0.19 $0.00 CCD 8 155-010-034040 City of Monticello 0.50 $0.00 CCD 9 155-010-067010 / 155-010-067060 / 155-010-067100 Monticello EDA 1.33 $0.00 CCD 10 155-010-052120 Monticello EDA 0.07 $0.00 CCD 11 155-010-052110 Monticello EDA 0.43 $0.00 CCD 12 155-019-007050 / 155-019-008010 / 155-010-067100 Monticello EDA 1.40 $0.00 R-2 13 155-010-052132 / 155-010-052140 City of Monticello 0.28 $0.00 CCD 14 155-010-052150 Monticello EDA 0.23 $0.00 CCD 15 155-010-034080 City of Monticello 0.25 $0.00 B-3 16 155-010-034101 City of Monticello 0.09 $0.00 B-3 17 155-010-034030 City of Monticello 0.25 $0.00 B-3 18 155-010-034020 City of Monticello 0.25 $0.00 B-3 19 155-010-035011 City of Monticello 0.70 $0.00 B-3 PID Owner Size (Acres)2019 Taxes Zoning Data not updated in 2023 Housing Study. Map does not reflect changes since 2020. 90 91 Local Impacts AvAilABle lots - city-owned A comPonent oF AvAilABle PArcels; there are parcels in Monticello that are under direct ownership and control of the EDA. Many of these parcels are available for residential use, and should continue to be considered in unique strategies that can increase affordability, types of development, and integration of tenure types. Local control over development parcels allows Monticello the ability to heavily influence any future development that would occur, utilizing known needs and the vision of the comprehensive plan to guide development types in key areas. Parcels displayed on this map are available parcels that are zoned for some form of residential use, and exclude all land records that indicate park use for the properties. While many of the properties are within neighborhoods and subdivisions, there are also parcels in key corridors along Interstate 94, the downtown, and other districts. The City has consciously invested into securing properties for future redevelopment, and should continue to do so as growth pressures continue to ensure quality design and housing that meets the needs of residents. !#"94 !#"94 S H E R B U R N E C O U N T Y W R I G H T C O U N T Y ××11 ××17 ××39 ××39 ××106 ××18 ××212 ××14 ××43 ××50 ××2222 ××189 ××287 W RIVER ST CR-50 200TH ST 7TH ST W B R OADWAYST CSAH 43 85TH ST NE CAMERON ST CSAH 39 CSAH 14 EBROADWAY ST SCHOOL BLVD E BROADWAY ST PA R K B LV D CHELSEA RD 90TH ST NE HARDING AVE NE BRI A R W O O D AVE NE ./10 ./10 Printed By: smorrison, File: \\msa-ps.com\fs\Project\13\13731\13731002\GIS\13731002_CityOwned_20201008.mxd Print Date: 10/8/2020 Data Sources:Minnesota GIS DataWright County GIS & Assessor Data Monticello, Wright County, MN City Owned Proper ties Streets Interstate State Road US Highway Water Body Parcel Boundary Surrounding Municipality Monticello Available City Owned Properties Right of Way Monticello Housing Study 0 0.25 0.5 Miles Data not updated in 2023 Housing Study. Map does not reflect changes since 2020. Housing Needs and DemandCity of Monticello 92 city-owned lots By zoning AvAilABle lots under EDA ownership have been located in a variety of different districts with different associated densities and building structure types - ranging from Single and Two family Residential, Medium Density Residential, Traditional Residential, Residential Amenities District, and carryover parcels that have undergone zoning conversion to PUD. While some of these parcels are dedications from development, they are indicative of the opportunities that the City has to control development potential in different areas of the City across zoning districts. As the City updates the comprehensive plan and looks categorically at future land use and densities in specific areas, continuing proactive acquisition of parcels in areas that advance City housing policies should be a key consideration - including continuing to activate and increase density and vibrancy in the downtown, subdivisions with ranges of unit types, structure sizes, and tenure, and more intensive development options in areas with transportation and easy amenity access. Downtown inset is on pg. 90. !#"94 !#"94 S H E R B U R N E C O U N T Y W R I G H T C O U N T Y ××11 ××17 ××39 ××39 ××106 ××18 ××212 ××14 ××43 ××50 ××2222 ××189 ××287 W RIVER ST CR-50 200TH ST 7TH ST W B R OADWAYST CSAH 43 85TH ST NE CAMERON ST CSAH 39 CSAH 14 EBROADWAY ST SCHOOL BLVD E BROADWAY ST PA R K B LV D CHELSEA RD 90TH ST NE HARDING AVE NE BRI A R W O O D AV E NE ./10 ./10 Printed By: smorrison, File: \\msa-ps.com\fs\Project\13\13731\13731002\GIS\13731002_CityOwned_ByZoning_20201008.mxd Print Date: 10/8/2020 Data Sources:Minnesota GIS DataWright County GIS & Assessor Data Monticello, Wright County, MN City Owned Proper ties By Zoning Streets Interstate State Road US Highway Water Body Parcel Boundary Surrounding Municipality Monticello Right of Way Monticello Zoning Highway Business Medium Density Residential Monticello Housing Study 0 0.25 0.5 Miles Data not updated in 2023 Housing Study. Map does not reflect changes since 2020. 93 Local Impacts residentiAl PlAtted lots PlAtted ProPerties within the City represent current available parcels that are ready for development, including approved numbers of total units for potential purchasers both in the City and those looking to relocate. There are currently 5 subdivision developments that have been platted, and include opportunity for 153 new units in the City. These are included in demand calculations to best ensure accurate availability of lots and units ready for creation. Three of these subdivisions are largely built out, containing opportunity for 1, 2, and 5 units in Hillside Farm, Club West, and Carlisle Village respectively. Sunset Ponds recently received approvals and permits for completion. The total unit mix across these subdivisions indicates a unit mix consistent with recent development across both single-unit and multi-unit building structures. Residential Platted Properties !"b$ Sg ?¾A@ ?¾A@ EÕGH EÕGH S} S} 9 0t h S t S E M is s i s s i p p i R i v e r O tt e r C r e e k FirstLake Mud Lake Club West Featherstone Autumn Ridge Hunters Crossing Carlisle Village 4th Addition Edmonson Ave nm nm nm Pinewood Elementary School Monticello Middle School Monticello High School ®v CentraCare Health nmnm Little Mountain Elementary School Eastview Education Center s Monticello Country Club MCC/City Office Spirit Hills Hillside Farm Haven Ridge 94 25 75 39 CHELSEA RD BROADWAY ST SCHOOL BLVD FENNING AVE EDMONSON AVE PINE ST RIVERVIEW DR GOLF COURSE RD 25 94 39 To Twin Cities To St. Cloud 3 Miles to T.H. 10 Document Path: K:\015355-000\GIS\Maps\ResidentialPropertyMap_PlattedAvailable_Base.mxd LEGEND City Limit Previous Preliminary Plat - Requires Platting Multi Family Available Single Family Available ¯ 0 1,000500 Feet Development Single Family Lots Multi Family Lots Featherstone 25 0 Hillside Farm 1 0 Carlisle Village 5 13 buildings / 60 Autumn Ridge Villas 24 0 Club West 2 0 Haven Ridge 27 0 Sunset Ponds 0 2 buildings / 9 Totals:84 69 units Updated: February 2020 | Available Platted and Utility Serviced Lots Data not updated in 2023 Housing Study. Map does not reflect changes since 2020. Housing Needs and DemandCity of Monticello 94 one oF the costs directly passed on to consumers in both ownership and rental markets are fees associated with development. These fees are assessed by the City in order to ensure quality of development, as well as to mitigate potential negative impacts associated with increased residential density. Monticello’s fee schedule is reproduced on an annual basis, reassessed to ensure fees charged meet the required intent without dissuading development due to prohibitive cost. Permit Fees: The amounts in the table below are a sample of recent per-unit permit fees for development projects in the City over the past four years. These fees are used for illustrative purposes only, to give relative example of how individual subdivision, building, or structure types have different associated permitting and development fees dependent upon project details and levels of review. develoPment Fees Type Total Project Valuation Revenue Plan Check State Fee SAC Fees WAC Fees Total per Unit Multi-Family Construction $15,500,000 $3,483.12 $364.37 $20.88 $2,576.99 $56.08 $6,501.58 $5,125,000 $510.82 $272.76 $32.05 $4,651.94 $88.15 $5,556.00 $6,480,000 $367.40 $238.81 $23.85 $4,190.00 -$4,820.06 Single-Family Attached $141,864 $2,024.04 $320.71 $70.93 $4,315.00 $833.00 $7,563.68 $159,326 $2,130.96 $352.44 $79.66 $4,315.00 $833.00 $7,711.06 $203,200 $2,364.32 $417.78 $101.60 $4,190.00 $833.00 $7,906.70 $218,971 $2,453.42 $1,114.16 $109.49 $4,190.00 $833.00 $8,730.07 $224,762 $2,489.06 $1,167.32 $112.38 $4,190.00 $833.00 $8,791.76 Single-Family Detached $152,000 $2,038.67 $340.57 $76.00 $4,190.00 $833.00 $7,478.24 $187,528 $2,252.51 $1,024.46 $93.76 $4,190.00 $833.00 $8,393.73 $215,000 $2,457.66 $1,128.71 $107.50 $4,315.00 $833.00 $8,841.87 $270,000 $2,784.36 $1,341.07 $135.00 $4,315.00 $833.00 $9,408.43 $302,000 $2,946.44 1,464.62 $151 $4,190.00 $833.00 $9,585.06 Source: City of Monticello Per Unit Cost Data not updated in 2023 Housing Study 95 Local Impacts develoPment Fees comPArison develoPment Fees vary from community to community. While most communities charge similar types of fees, the way each municipality calculates those fees and the rates they set can vary significantly depending on their differing contexts and needs. A detailed summary table comparing a sample of Monticello’s development fees for 2023 in relation to its regional peers can be found in the Appendix. One-to-one comparisons between fees are not always possible given the differing methods for calculating fees amongst the municipalities. For example, Monticello calculates its cash-in-lieu of parkland dedication fee based on the fair market value of the raw land in the new subdivision (set at 11%), while the City of Buffalo charges different rates based on the number and type of residential units being created ($2,900 per single family unit or $5,800 per duplex). Two types of fees that are able to be compared on a relatively one-to-one basis are area trunk utility charges and availability/access charges for water, sanitary sewer, and stormwater infrastructure. For the sake of comparison, the tables below detail the how these charges would vary if the Savanna Vista multi-family apartment complex and Featherstone 6th Addition single family home developments were hypothetically built in each community (these are real world projects planned or already constructed in the City of Monticello). These calculations are for the sake of comparison and may not reflect the true cost of these charges in each community. Multi-Family Fee Comparison - Savanna Vista (200 units / 10.73 acres) Residential Trunk Area Utility Charges Water Sanitary Stormwater TOTAL Monticello $236,400 $328,200 $47,169 $611,769 Buffalo $21,535 $20,323 $3,756 $45,613 Becker $29,465 $35,645 $68,017 $133,127 Big Lake $17,705 $57,191 n/a*$74,895* St. Michael $180,000 $509,400 $124,000 $813,400 Residential Availability/ Access Charges Water Sanitary TOTAL Monticello $99,400 $911,000 $1,010,400 Buffalo $1,894 $7,962 $9,856 Becker $1,042 $1,400 $2,442 Big Lake $440,000 $647,000 $1,087,000 St. Michael $1,190,400 $590,400 $1,780,800 Housing Needs and DemandCity of Monticello 96 develoPment Fees comPArison cont. Single-Family Fee Comparison - Featherstone 6th Addition (21 units / 10 acres) Residential Trunk Area Utility Charges Water Sanitary Stormwater TOTAL Monticello $24,822 $34,461 $43,960 $103,243 Buffalo $20,070 $18,940 $3,500 $42,510 Becker $27,460 $33,220 $51,830 $112,510 Big Lake $16,500 $53,300 n/a*$69,800* St. Michael $23,604 $59,388 $62,769 $145,761 Residential Availability/ Access Charges Water Sanitary TOTAL Monticello $10,437 $95,655 $106,092 Buffalo $1,894 $7,962 $9,856 Becker $2,382 $3,200 $5,582 Big Lake $75,285 $111,825 $187,110 St. Michael $124,992 $61,992 $186,984 For these two developments, Monticello’s total fees are neither the most or least expensive amongst its regional peers. For availability/access charges, St. Michael and Big Lake are the most expensive communities, with Monticello in third place. Buffalo and Becker’s availability/access charges by comparison are dramatically less than the other communities since they charge a flat amount per development rather than calculate their fees based on the number of units or total acreage in the development. This discrepancy is seen most dramatically with the hypothetical 200-unit multi-family apartment complex, and demonstrates how different methodologies for calculating fees can impact the total cost passed on to consumers. *Stormwater trunk area utility charges are determined by the City Engineer in Big Lake, therefore an accurate total cost cannot be computed for this exercise. However, it should be assumed their total trunk area fees would be higher than the amount listed in the above tables. Source: Municipality Development Fee Schedules 97 Local Impacts condo And townhome develoPment condos are smaller, owner-occupied housing units that are a popular, and often more affordable, alternative to a typical single-family home. Condos come in many forms including larger, multi-story buildings or in attached style housing. Townhomes are an example of a form of condo ownership type that are categorized as a smaller attached home that can exist in blocks of 2 or more units. Townhomes mostly fall under ownership as a condo but can also be found in rentable units. They can be a substitute for a starter home and are found both in traditional downtown neighborhoods as well as new developments nationwide. Although each have their respective differences, townhomes and condos can often meet the housing needs of young families and elderly people who might be interested in a smaller space at a more affordable price. Monticello has a larger inventory of condo and townhomes than its peers and performs better than average nationwide in the number of owner-occupied 1-unit detached and condo developments as a percentage of total housing units. However, the near zero vacancy rate for owner-occupied units combined with an increasingly unaffordable single-family home and rental market suggest that there is a great need to supply more affordable owner-occupied housing options like townhomes and condos. Recent developments include the Carlisle Village 6th addition which became active as of 2021 offering townhomes smaller than 2,000 sq. ft. at roughly a $300,000 price range. Stoney Brook Village Development was recently proposed and approved offering townhomes for $400,000. While these units tend to be less expensive than single-family detached homes in Monticello, they still fall out of reach for the median household earning $84,444. Barriers and strategies for improving the affordability of townhomes and condos are explored below. Source: Mark Elliot Homes Stoney Brook Village Twinhome Development BArriers • Costs are rising. Interest rates are high, and inflation has pushed construction costs up. Since January 2023, construction material cost is up 11.3% and labor cost is up 2.9% for the national average according to CoreLogic, which monitors a wide variety of construction materials and labor for the building industry. Many projects originally set for 2021 were delayed because of construction costs and funding drying up.• Developers are looking for federal and municipal support to finance projects. Currently, in order to receive financing from lenders, condos must have sold units ( i.e. 50% condos sold = 50% loan). This hampers development where there simply isn’t the capital stack available. • Developers are fearing legal liabilities from owners’ associations. According to the MinnPost, until recently, condo developers were vulnerable to lawsuits from owners’ associations who sue for poor construction. Apartment developers are not liable for construction issues. • Purchasers of condos have limited access to a mortgage. Unless 80% of condos or more are sold in the development, would be buyers are not able to receive a mortgage, a Wisconsin State Journal article reported. Without a guarantee that units will sell, developers hold off.• Demand for apartments outweighs condos and townhome. With unaffordable options for condos, townhomes, and single-family homes, people are substituting into apartment units which drives up more demand for rental units. Due to this high demand, lenders are more than comfortable financing new rental projects, with condo and townhome projects falling to the wayside.• Restrictive zoning. Rules and development standards can block condo and townhome development from being economically viable for developers Housing Needs and DemandCity of Monticello 98 solutions • Adjust zoning code to allow for more condo development. The City should consider reducing minimum lot size for condo and townhome units which sit at 5,500-7,000 sq. ft. depending on unit type. Zoning districts should be evaluated for where condo and townhome development are allowed.• Promote change in law that gives condo developers greater protection from lawsuits. This law has decreased the risk that condo developers take on and can encourage new development to take place.• Support condo and townhome purchasers with greater access to mortgages. Public-private partnerships can alleviate the burden of financing the purchase of a condo or townhome by offering mortgage programs for zero-interest or incentives for first time buyers.• Provide more routes to financing for condo developers. Collaboration between developers, government, and finance sector can bring about additional paths to capital for developments. sPotlight: AFFordABle townhome develoPment in FloridA St. Pete, FL recently approved three affordable townhome projects which in completion will offer 64 homeownership opportunities to residents. Lot sizes average 2,500 sq. ft. per unit. In a partnership between the City and Habitat for Humanity of Pinellas and West Paco Counties, these projects utilize multiple programs designed to incentivize and reduce costs for developers. Units will be offered in a range of $219,000 to $279,000 meets affordability limits of 80% AMI (area median income) and above buyers. Additionally, Habitat will offer 30-year, 0% interest mortgages on the 64 townhomes. Source: St. Pete Rising The Grove Townhomes 99 Local Impacts zoning monticello’s zoning ordinAnce is written to have 6 main residential districts. Counting permitted (by-right) uses, this includes 3 low-density single-family only districts, 1 medium density single- family only district, 1 single-family/townhome district, and 1 townhome/multi-family district. As the City looks to update future land uses and development patterns, it may be beneficial to continue to proactively anticipate development in certain districts that promotes mixes of unit types, sizes, and structures within subdivision development and platting to offer increased access to residents. Other considerations may include revisions to districts that allow more “missing middle” housing (3+ unit) housing by-right in certain districts, to save on developer holding costs that increase the price of housing. Minimum Residential Lot Size Minimum Lot Width Single-Family Two-Family 3-4 Unit 5+ Unit Accessory Dwelling Zoning District AO 2 acre 200’P P/C RA 14,000 sq. ft. **90’ **P P/C R1 10,000 sq. ft. **70’ **P P/C R2 10,000 sq. ft. SF 10,000 base + 4,000 /unit MF 7,000 sq. ft Duplex/Att. 80’P P C*C P/C TN 7,500 sq. ft.45’P P/C R3 10,980 sq. ft./unit TH 5,124 sq. ft./unit MF 80’C P P P/C R4 30,000 sq. ft.-C C P/C B1 8,000 sq. ft 80’C C P/C P = Permitted Use; C = Conditional Use*Allowed as Permitted Use in Broadway and General CCD subarea in certain situations** Lot averaging can be utilized in subdivision developmentData not updated in 2023 Housing Study The residential base zoning districts established in this section are intended to provide a variety of housing options in a comfortable, healthy, safe, and pleasant environment in which to live and recreate at a neighborhood level. - City of Monticello Zoning Ordinance Housing Needs and DemandCity of Monticello 100 zoning Point-in-time County Hwy 75 Chelsea Rd State Hwy 25 85th St NE 9 0th St N E Linn St Pine St E 7th St School Blvd Riverview Dr Cedar St W River St Marvin Rd Jason Ave NE Dundas Rd W Broadway St Hart Blvd Country Ln Haug Ave NE Elm St W 4th St Fenning Ave NE Oakwook Dr Mallard Ln 95th St NE Fallon Ave NE Edmonson Ave NE Mississippi Dr W 5th St W 7th St Sandberg Rd Pelican Ln Falcon Dr Fenning Ave NE Walnut St Oak Ridge Dr N Oriole Ln Club View Rd Broadway St Hillcrest Rd E River St Hedman Ln Mill Trail Ln Fallon Ave NE Wright StNew St Marvin Elwood Road Ramsey St W 6th St River Mill Dr Wildwood Way Hilltop Dr Mill Run Rd Oakview Ln Farmstead Ave Martin Dr E 3rd St E 3rd St Red Rock Ln Gillard Ave NE Maple St Fallon Dr Willow St Eastwood Ln Graystone Ave Marvin Elwood Rd Fieldcrest Cir Fairway Dr Jason Ave NE Vine St Meadow Ln Jerry Liefert Dr Praire Road Starling Dr Palm St Fallon Ave NE Golf Course Rd Fallon Ave NE Kevin Longley Dr Craig Ln Red Oak Ln Front St W 5th St Thomas Park Dr Locust St Mockingbird Ln W 3rd St Eastwood Cir Briar Oaks Blvd Fa rms tead D r Hennepin St Eider Ln Oak Ln River Forest Dr Meadow Oak Ave Kampa Cir Oa k Ridge Cir Mill Ct River Ridge Ln Oakview Ct Dundas Cir Kenneth Ln Otter Creek Rd Minnesota St Eagle Cir Crocus Ln Meadow Oak Ln Stoneridge Dr Chestnut St 120 th St NE Darrow Ave NE Diamond Dr Pebblebrook Dr Widgeon Ln Washington St Bunker Cir Hom estead Dr Thomas Cir Endico tt Tr Center Cir Oakview Cir Sandtrap Cir Country Cir Cheyenne Ct Territoral Rd Tanager Cir Hillcrest Cir Osprey Cir Acorn Cir Balboul Cir S wallow Cir Riv er side Cir Meadow Oak Ct Matthew Cir East Oak Dr St on eridg e Cir Oakwood Dr Meadow Oak Dr County Hwy 75 Hart Blvd Minnesota St Elm St Wright St 90th St NE Cedar St Minnesota St 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 City of Monticello Official Zoning Map: 1 inch = 2,500 feet Date: 1/15/2020 Legend BASE ZONING DISTRICTS PUDs Residential Districts -- Low Residential Densities A-O R-A R-1 Business Districts B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 CCD-- Medium Residential Densities T-N R-2 R-PUD -- High Residential Densities R-3 R-4 M-H Mills Fleet Farm Red Rooster Swan River Monticello High School 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 Spaeth Industrial Park Camping World Affordable Storage Autumn RidgeOTHER Water Industrial Districts IBC I-1 I-2 Mississippi Wild, Scenic & Rec Overlay District OVERLAY DISTRICTS Performance Based Overlay District! !! !! Shoreland District Special Use Overlay District! !! !! Freeway Bonus Sign District 09 Rivertown Suites 10 Monticello RV 11 Deephaven 12 Monticello Business Center 8th residentiAl develoPment by right within the zoning code helps to ease planning and construction by having clear, concise rules and regulations so that residents and developers understand expectations for the site. Good zoning creates guidelines for this development while maintaining flexibility balanced with community health and aesthetically pleasing design. Overall, the many districts in the City offer a range of development opportunities for a wide variety of housing types. There is likely opportunity to continue to thoughtfully integrate attached-units or small multi-unit structures into some low density residential districts by allowing them as permitted uses, as well as to slowly increase density (and affordability) through further lot size reductions (or lowering averages below the base to allow a more natural range of housing choices). One structure that is not explicitly listed in the ordinance as an accessory use type are Accessory Dwelling Units. These unit options may want to be called out as they are in the general provisions, providing guidance in development. County Hwy 75 Chelsea Rd State Hwy 25 85th St NE 9 0t h St N E Linn St Pine St E 7th St School Blvd Riverview Dr Cedar St W River St M arvin R d Jason Ave NE Dundas Rd W Broadway St H art Blvd Country Ln Haug Ave NE Elm St W 4th St Fenning Ave NE Oakwook Dr Mallard Ln 95th St NE Fallon Ave NE Edmonson Ave NE Mississippi Dr W 5th St W 7th St Sandberg Rd Pelican Ln Falcon Dr Fenning Ave NE Walnut St Oak Ridge Dr N Oriole Ln Club View Rd Broadway St Hillcrest Rd E River St Hedman Ln Mill Tra il Ln Fallon Ave NE Wright StNew St Marvin Elwood Road Ramsey St W 6th St River Mill Dr Wildwood Way Hilltop Dr Mill Run Rd Oakv iew Ln Farmstead Ave Martin Dr E 3rd St E 3rd St Red Rock Ln Gillard Ave NE Maple St Fallon Dr Willow St Eastwood Ln Graystone Ave Marvin Elwood Rd Fieldcrest Cir Fairway Dr Jason Ave NE Vine St Meado w Ln Jerry Liefert Dr Praire Road Starling Dr Palm St Fallon Ave NE Golf Course Rd Fallon Ave NE Kevin Longley Dr Craig Ln Red Oak Ln Front St W 5th St Thomas Park Dr Locust St Mockingbird Ln W 3rd St Eastwood Cir Briar Oaks Blvd F a r m s t e a d D r Hennepin St Eider Ln Oak Ln River Forest Dr Meadow Oak Ave Kampa Cir O a k R id ge Cir Mill Ct River Ridge Ln Oakview Ct Dundas Cir Kenneth Ln Otter Creek Rd Minnesota St Eagle Cir Crocus Ln Meadow O ak Ln Stoneridge Dr Chestnut St 1 20 t h S t N E Darrow Ave NE Diamond Dr Pebblebrook Dr Widgeon Ln Washington St Bunker Cir H o mestead D r Thomas Cir E n di c o tt T r Center Cir Oakview Cir Sandtrap Cir Country Cir Cheyenne Ct Territoral R d Tanager Cir Hillcrest Cir Osprey Cir Acorn Cir Balboul Cir S w all o w Cir Riv e r s id e C ir Meadow Oak Ct Matthew Cir East Oak Dr St on e r id g e Cir Oakwood Dr Meadow Oak Dr County H wy 75 Hart Blvd Minnesota St Elm St Wright St 90th St NE Cedar St Minnesota St 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 City of Monticello Official Zoning Map: 1 inch = 2,500 feet Date: 1/15/2020 Legend BASE ZONING DISTRICTS PUDs Residential Districts -- Low Residential Densities A-O R-A R-1 Business Districts B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 CCD-- Medium Residential Densities T-N R-2 R-PUD -- High Residential Densities R-3 R-4 M-H Mills Fleet Farm Red Rooster Swan River Monticello High School 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 Spaeth Industrial Park Camping World Affordable Storage Autumn RidgeOTHER Water Industrial Districts IBC I-1 I-2 Mississippi Wild, Scenic & Rec Overlay District OVERLAY DISTRICTS Performance Based Overlay District ! !! !! Shoreland District Special Use Overlay District ! !! !! Freeway Bonus Sign District 09 Rivertown Suites 10 Monticello RV 11 Deephaven 12 Monticello Business Center 8th Data not updated in 2023 Housing Study 101 Local Impacts 101 Housing Needs and DemandCity of Monticello 102 unit deMAnd Findings & Recommendations 102 103 Unit Demand & Recommendations notes on unit demAnd cAlculAtions There are multiple factors that influence demand for new housing, making accurate projections of future demand and unit production challenging. Our approach in the following pages includes both a low estimate and a high estimate for new households, with the expectation that the actual growth of households and units will be somewhere between those estimates. One important variable is the tenure type split, meaning the distribution between rental and ownership in new unit production. The City has recently been at about 70% owner occupancy and 30% rental occupancy, and the level of owner occupancy has dropped a few points as compared to 3 years earlier. We would expect to see this based on the production of more rental units (including some units that could be owner-occupied, such as townhomes). This study is not establishing what the City wants in new unit production, but instead is an attempt to project what the market is most likely to provide. Based on recent permit history in Monticello and a shift toward more rental housing in much of the country, we are projecting and assuming a 50/50 split between owner and rental housing in the next few years. If the City takes actions to incentivize new owner occupant units, and/or declines to provide incentives for new rental units, it could influence the tenure split outcome. The rental demand projections suggest that the market requires few or no new rental units before 2028, at least beyond those already built and those with zoning approvals, due to the recent strong production of units. In the low estimate for household growth the City will have more units than it needs. In the higher estimate there is demand for a modest 147 units after all approved units are built. However, it is important to recognize that none of the new units recently constructed are targeted to lower income residents. Meanwhile our projections highlight the demand for units affordable to housheholds below the median household income. There is, we believe, still unmet demand for income-qualified units even if (or because) there are new high-end units on the market. Housing Needs and DemandCity of Monticello 104 owner demAnd - low estimAte Growth projections for the City of Monticello indicate that current household growth rates will continue - and may have the potential to increase. More commuters are looking to call Monticello home. More area residents would like more options in the housing market. This demand analysis identifies a need to increase the number of ownership units in the City - creating more opportunity for ownership that can serve residents and newcomers alike. There are two pages of demand analysis per housing tenure type (ownership and rental) - this is done to illustrate the range of potential growth that the City may undergo. In general, low estimates are based on 1.7% household growth, and high estimates are based upon 2.9% household growth. Some assumptions in each are the same - such as the need to bring vacancy back to healthy levels, and decrease the rapid speed of cost increases on housing. Other estimates differ based on current best projections. Final unit estimates are broken down by total projection of unit need from 2020 to 2028, projected unit need subtracting out permitted units (units constructed or under construction), and projected unit need subtracting out permitted units and units with land use and land division approval (anticipated units). The low estimate should be used as a baseline - a minimum threshold for unit construction, not just plats. New Construction Ownership Housing Demand from 2020 to 2028- Low Estimate Demand from Household Growth Within the City Household Growth from 2020 to 2028 644 additional households New Household Ownership Rate 50% Demand for New Construction 322 ownership units Demand from Existing Resident Households Current Owner Households 3,082 households Current Owners Actively Looking for New Housing 10.0% Increased Demand from Existing Residents 308 ownership units Desire for New Construction 56% Existing Resident Demand for New Construction 173 ownership units Total Demand for New Construction Ownership Units = 495 units Preference for SF-Detached 70%Preference for SF-Attached 30% #347 units #148 units Additional Need for Vacancy 54 units Additional Need for Vacancy 23 units Total SF-Detached Need 401 units Total SF-Attached Need 171 units Total Ownership Unit Need = 572 units Total Need minus Permitted Units = 401 units Total Need minus Permitted Units & Approved Units = 284 units 105 Unit Demand & Recommendations New Construction Ownership Housing Demand from 2020 to 2028- High Estimate Demand from Household Growth Within the City Household Growth from 2020 to 2028 1,159 additional households New Household Ownership Rate 50% Demand for New Construction 579 ownership units Demand from Existing Resident Households Current Owner Households 3,082 households Current Owners Actively Looking for New Housing 10.0% Increased Demand from Existing Residents 308 ownership units Desire for New Construction 56% Existing Resident Demand for New Construction 173 ownership units Total Demand for New Construction Ownership Units = 752 units Preference for SF-Detached 70%Preference for SF-Attached 30% #526 units #226 units Additional Need for Vacancy 54 units Additional Need for Vacancy 23 units Total SF-Detached Need 580 units Total SF-Attached Need 249 units Total Ownership Unit Need = 829 units Total Need minus Permitted Units = 658 units Total Need minus Permitted Units & Approved Units = 541 units owner demAnd - high estimAte This high estimate should be used as a goal - a measure of units that could be constructed in the market to provide additional housing choice - in location, type, and price point for buyers at any given point in time. Community feedback through this process indicated the desire that there be multiple areas under different stages of development at the same time, so that buyers who want to move to the City have areas to choose in where to call home. This estimate would likely require multiple active subdivisions in order to have the demand met and fully constructed by 2028. Development interest and demand drive the housing market. Due to lending requirements and market analyses needed for large-scale developer investment, if there is developer interest, there is also likely demand. Housing Needs and DemandCity of Monticello 106 ownershiP Findings generAl conditions imPActing the housing mArket: • Average household size has remained stable (p. 8) • Families and home-office preferences sustaining need for larger units (p. 8) • Aging households are the fastest increasing demographic since 2010 (p. 9) • Aging households will be a significant portion of households through 2050 (p. 12) • Monticello residents have lower average incomes compared to peer communities (p. 13) • Monticello residents have lower degrees of educational attainment compared to the County (p. 14) • Common occupation groups in the City indicate a need for affordable housing, especially for entry-level positions (p. 16) • Large shares of residents (48% as of 2020) commute into metro counties daily for work. Forty-eight percent of community survey respondents indicated Twin Cities or a suburb as place of employment (p. 18) • Housing unit production has not kept pace with new households moving to the County, decreasing vacancy and increasing cost (p. 19) • Rising costs and interest rates have made the development process more difficult (p. 97) • Vacancy rates continue to be low in the City and region, despite strong unit production (p. 104) whAt residents wAnt: • Increase in zero-entry, patio, and rambler style homes • Detached, accessory, missing middle, and townhome units • Affordable starter-home development in proximity to amenities • Areas with different development options to build in mAjor ownershiP mArket Findings: • Ownership units have made up 25.3% of planned or constructed developments since 2020, well below historic building trends (p. 6) • Though the majority of ownership housing is single-family detached, there are also many attached ownership units (p. 51) • Owners make up a smaller portion of the overall housing market than in most regional communities (p. 53). Now at 70% of housing market as of 2021. • Though affordable homes exist in the market, residents still identified the largest negative aspect of the market as lack of affordability, with more than half of survey respondents indicating that affordable housing is becoming harder to find (p. 58) • There are generally more affordable ownership opportunities in the city core, though attached ownership units are affordable in many areas (p. 60) • Many households are remaining in their housing longer than the 7-year national average (p. 61) • Since 2014, home costs have drastically outpaced income growth with single-family home value reducing affordability and access for potential homebuyers (p. 62) • The median single-family home value is now greater than the median income affordability limit (p. 62) • The median home cost has more than doubled since 2010 (p. 62) • Among its peers, Monticello has the lowest- cost entry point for a median starter home (p. 64) • The median starter home in the City is no longer affordable to households earning 80% AMI (p. 64) • Monticello has the current highest Sales:List price ratio among peer communities (p. 68) • There is demand for ownership townhomes (p. 70) 107 Unit Demand & Recommendations ownershiP recommendAtions continue to PlAt And service new suBdivisions And develoPments While construction activity has been ongoing, residents and prospective residents have indicated a need for more choices within the market. In order to meet the housing construction demand outlined above, it will likely require multiple subdivisions in various stages of build-out at any given point. The City should continue to work with developers who are bringing forward housing - at all price ranges - to serve needs of the community. PArtner with develoPers to deliver A mix oF housing oPtions While small-lot and large-lot new development is a need, so are unit-type mixes within new subdivision development. Integrating a mix of housing types (attached/detached, 4-19 unit rental, etc.) within subdivision plans allows more choices and options in the housing market - ensuring that households of all income can call new development home. This can work to encourage more natural community character, and help preserve the neighborhood and small-town feel of the community through personal connection. there is A mArket For “luxury” housing - But the mArket is limited There are households in Monticello who can afford $450,000+ new construction homes. We have heard through this process that large- lot availability and acreage are reasons those seeking higher-cost homes choose to live in the region. While there are certainly opportunities for development in this price range, sales would likely be targeted to residents from the larger region - where incomes are higher and households have more choice in this competitive market sector. Assess requirements, minimum lot sizes, And AverAged minimums The City has the ability to review parking requirements, minimum lot sizes, and averaged minimums to further bring down new ownership costs that can help maintain Monticello’s affordability. Both small-lot and large-lot units have been identified as needs. The City should actively work to ensure developers take advantage of lot- averaging that can offer a full scope of options for potential homeowners in new development. This step toward continued affordability will provide options for both existing and prospective residents. Actively Promote rePAir AssistAnce From mhFA, usdA, And wccA Wright County Community Action (WCCA) provides assistance in homebuyer training, rehabilitation, and other housing-financing issues that can prove a stumbling block to lower- income owners. WCCA is also prepared to assist homeowners in securing financing through the Minnesota Housing Finance Agency (MHFA) and USDA Rural Development, and can guide owners through complicated processes to improve their homes. keeP in mind Aging homeowners The large share of senior persons projected through 2050 is a national trend - and households will need continued options. Whether promoting accessibility programs to retrofit homes to age- in-place, developing zoning flexibility to develop Accessory Dwelling Units for caretakers, or tracking the need for continued senior-living options in the community, this demographic represents a large share of specialized housing need moving toward 2050. mAintAin develoPment Fees, Be helPFul A comparison of development fees among Monticello and its peers for ownerships and rental development examples shows that Monticello has a comparable level of fees to several peer communities. These fees are based on real costs and the City should not be apologetic nor should the fee be reduced (unless as part of an incentive package to encourage new units accessible below the median household income). The City SHOULD be proactive and helpful throughout the development process, making every reasonable effort to make the approval process understandable and predictable for developers. For residents who already live in the City, there are several key issues. Moderate-income residents who previously would have been able to afford homeownership are now finding themselves being outpriced in an appreciating and competitive market. There are areas of the core city with low home values and low improvement ratios. And the average days on market is well below one month, indicating an unhealthy market. Housing Needs and DemandCity of Monticello 108 rentAl demAnd - low estimAte Within the rental market, projections are based on projected household growth, current rates of household tenure for demographics likely to be seeking rental housing, and then focused based on rates of affordability to current residents who rent within the housing market. Final unit estimates are broken down by total projection of unit need from 2020 to 2028, projected unit need subtracting out permitted units (units constructed or under construction), and projected unit need subtracting out permitted units and units with land use and land division approval (anticipated units). This demand analysis indicates a shift from ownership to renter markets, consistent with changes in rates of tenure over the past decade. Demand-driven outcomes in recent years have led to a higher percentage of rental units created compared to ownership units than an average year. The low estimate for rental housing needed after subtracting out permitted and approved units indicates that the demand estimate is close to being met though this should be used as a baseline and not used as justification to preclude development. New Construction Rental Housing Demand from 2020 to 2028 - Low Estimate Demand from Household Growth Within the City Household Growth from 2023 to 2028 644 additional households New Household Renter Rate 50% Demand from New Construction 322 rental units Demand from Existing Resident Households Current Renters in Market 1,444 households Percent of Renters Seeking New Housing 22.6% Increased Demand from Existing Renters 326 rental units Renters with Preference for New Construction 20% Existing Renter Demand for New Construction 65 rental units Total Demand for New Construction Rental Units = 387 units Affordable Units 50%Mid-Level Units 40%High Market Units 10% New Affordable Demand 194 units New Mid-Level Demand 155 units New High Market Demand 39 units Additional Need for Vacancy 49 units Additional Need for Vacancy 39 units Additional Need for Vacancy 10 units Total Affordable Need 243 units Total Mid-Level Need 194 units Total High Market Need 49 units Total Rental Unit Need = 485 units Total Need minus Permitted Units = 273 units Total Need minus Permitted Units & Approved Units = 0 units (excess of 110 units) 109 Unit Demand & Recommendations New Construction Rental Housing Demand from 2020 to 2028 - High Estimate Demand from Household Growth Within the City Household Growth from 2023 to 2028 1,159 additional households New Household Renter Rate 50% Demand from New Construction 579 rental units Demand from Existing Resident Households Current Renters in Market 1,444 households Percent of Renters Seeking New Housing 22.6% Increased Demand from Existing Renters 326 rental units Renters with Preference for New Construction 20% Existing Renter Demand for New Construction 65 rental units Total Demand for New Construction Rental Units = 644 units Affordable Units 50%Mid-Level Units 40%High Market Units 10% New Affordable Demand 322 units New Mid-Level Demand 258 units New High Market Demand 64 units Additional Need for Vacancy 49 units Additional Need for Vacancy 39 units Additional Need for Vacancy 10 units Total Affordable Need 371 units Total Mid-Level Need 297 units Total High Market Need 74 units Total Rental Unit Need = 742 units Total Need minus Permitted Units = 530 units Total Need minus Permitted Units & Approved Units = 147 units rentAl demAnd - high estimAte High estimates for rental demand assume continued, strong demand within the market. This suggests continued demand for development types that have been coming forward in the City, and planning for the trend to continue will allow the City to identify sites and areas through downtown and key corridors. The City can balance market demand for more rental housing with small town character through smart siting and design regulations. This estimate of demand may come to be met if growth pressures increase further than current projections indicate, and developments should be considered based on their own merits and demonstrated need on an annual basis. Housing Needs and DemandCity of Monticello 110 What do we mean by Affordable, Mid-Level, and High Market Rents? 110 111 Unit Demand & Recommendations AFFordABility - what a household can spend on housing cost - is relative to each individual household. Higher-income households can afford more within the market, meaning that there are more options that would be within their spending limit, whether they spend 10% or 30% of their income toward housing cost. Lower-income households have fewer choices in the market due to similar fixed-costs, but less units that generally rent at a level that would fall within a comfortable limit. In addition to having less units available, they sometimes directly compete with higher-income households who are “spending-down” in the market, occupying housing units that are especially affordable. The Affordable Housing rental production numbers outlined above are based on resident incomes by tenure - that is the percent of renter households who rent at each income level, before deciding to transition to the ownership market. Affordable Housing targets for these recommendations are units priced at an affordability level of 30% - 50% of the area median income for the 13-county metro. This is used to maintain consistency with common funding categories, and are adjusted to match household and bedroom size. Fifty percent of all Monticello renter households fall into this affordability range. 0 1 2 3 4 Affordable Housing Ideal Monthly Rent $656 $703 $749 $843 $937 Maximum Monthly Rent $1,093 $1,171 $1,249 $1,405 $1,561 Number of Bedrooms 0 1 2 3 4 Mid-Level Housing Ideal Monthly Rent $1,093 $1,171 $1,249 $1,405 $1,561 Maximum Monthly Rent $1,749 $1,874 $1,998 $2,248 $2,498 Number of Bedrooms 0 1 2 3 4 High Market Housing Ideal Monthly Rent $1,749 $1,874 $1,998 $2,248 $2,498 Maximum Monthly Rent ----- Number of Bedrooms Mid-Level housing indicates prices that would be affordable to a household earning between 50% and 80% of the median income for the 13-county metro. They are adjusted to match household/ family size, and represent consistency with MHFA and HUD guidelines. Fourty percent of all Monticello renter households are within this affordability range. High Market Housing is the last category for recommended cost of new units - and does not have an upper maximum. While households do rent within this category, there is a transition to homeownership that is consistent with both increasing incomes and geographic location of the City. Data and community input indicate that households tend to move to Monticello for affordability and accessibility, and the same holds true for high-income earners. There is a larger share of housing that is more affordable to these households than in the larger metro, even for households currently living in the City that could move if they choose. Housing Needs and DemandCity of Monticello 112 rentAl Findings generAl conditions imPActing the housing mArket: • Average household size has remained stable(p. 8) • Families and home-office preferences sustaining need for larger units (p. 8) • Aging households are the fastest increasing demographic since 2010 (p. 9) • Aging households will be a significant portion of households through 2050 (p. 12) • Monticello residents have lower average incomes compared to peer communities (p. 11) • Monticello residents have lower degrees of educational attainment compared to the County (p. 14) • Common occupation groups in the City indicate a need for affordable housing, especially for entry-level positions (p. 16) • Large shares of residents (48% as of 2020) commute into metro counties daily for work. Forty-eight percent of community survey respondents indicated Twin Cities or a suburb as place of employment (p. 17) • Housing unit production has not kept pace with new households moving to the County, decreasing vacancy and increasing cost (p. 19) • Rising costs and interest rates have made the development process more difficult (p. 96) • Vacancy rates continue to be low in the City and region, despite strong unit production (p. 108) whAt residents wAnt: • Housing for young adults and early-career households • Affordable housing for those who work in the community, and higher-amenity options to move up to as income increases • Larger units for families and/or spaces to have an office • Ranges of housing types (structures/sizes) to provide a range of options mAjor rentAl mArket Findings: • Rental units have made up 52.3% of planned or constructed developments since 2020, well above historic building trends (p. 6) • There is good geographic distribution of rental units throughout the City (p. 28) • Renter households have been increasing slightly as a total percentage of City households since 2010, currently at 30% as of 2021 (p. 31) • Lower-income households are much more likely to be renters (p. 31) • Rental housing in the City is easily accessible within the region, with good access and amenities (p. 32) • Rates of cost burden is much higher for renter than owner households (p. 33) • There are significant housing gaps at both the top and bottom of the rental housing market (low- and high-cost) (p. 34) • Most renters that are housing cost burdened pay more than 50% of their income toward housing costs (p. 35) • There are very few rental options in 2-4 unit structures in the City (p. 38) • Median rent is affordable to the median renter, though data does not account for new construction unit costs (p. 39) • Monthly rental cost for a 2-bedroom unit has gone up 20% since 2020 (p. 40) • New units are needed to bring the vacancy rate back to healthy and balanced levels (p. 41) • 3+ bedroom units will be needed at all price points for preference towards larger units (p. 42) • Fiber internet is a key rental amenity that is attractive to households throughout the region (p. 43) • Housing subsidies (both local and state/ federal) will be needed to offset increasing construction costs and ensure lower-income households can afford rental costs (p. 47) 113 Unit Demand & Recommendations rentAl recommendAtions tAke AdvAntAge oF oPPortunities For tAx credit & suBsidized develoPment Though referred to as “affordable housing”, tax credit developments offer new construction at rents that fit within the limits and demand of the community. Local employers are reporting that their workers need a middle-option, often fitting inside income categories for these units. These developments that offer opportunity to increase density in key areas, and can also be utilized for mixed-use developments that provide amenities in central, walkable areas. The City can also directly encourage more affordable rental costs through programs such as Tax Increment Financing. there is A mArket For “luxury” housing - But the mArket is limited Some households with the financial means to purchase a home still prefer to rent for various reasons, and these renters will pay for increased amenities. The market has responded with plenty of new, market-rate units in the past few years, including some in the “luxury” category. Demand for even more such units will grow with population, but there is not a backlog of unmet demand for such units apparent in the current market. continue to Focus on universAl design in centrAl AreAs As households continue to age, and many wanting to age in the community, providing a range of options that have accessibility features and follow universal design will promote healthy neighborhoods. This is needed throughout the City, as well as in key walkable central areas that increase access to amenities. Many homeowners who downsize, as well as those with differing levels of ability, live in private market units and prefer walkable areas with access to amenities. encourAge rehABilitAtion, redeveloPment, And reinvestment Maintaining housing affordability across a range of incomes is vital for community health - and is one of the reasons that some households choose to live in Monticello in the first place. However, aging housing stock requires upkeep in order to maintain desirability. Many rehabilitation programs offer deferred-loan assistance to landlords of small properties (such as MHFA’s Rural Rehabilitation Deferred Loan program). These incentivized loans often come with income restrictions. Though not an immediate solution, increased investment in new unit development in key areas (e.g. downtown), and new unit development in general can work to relax vacancy in the market, allowing households to select units that meet their balance of affordability & amenity - and structures with rehab needs will require maintenance investment to maintain market share. mAintAin A mix oF Bedroom sizes in new develoPment Preference towards larger unit size is evident in both ownership and rental developments. Important to this growth is ensuring households have access to a variety of both new and older stock options that meet their need for family size - and perhaps for home offices as telecommuting becomes more common. In practice, this means incorporating 3-bedroom units as a significant portion of the rental market, whether in townhome, detached, or multi-unit construction. Encouraging larger unit construction balanced with small unit construction ensures needs of all household types are served through new units. encourAge missing middle housing Structures with 2-19 units fill a gap that exists in the market, providing more options for residents, and reduced construction costs for development compared to single-unit detached structures. Unit design fits well among both existing and new structures, and will fill in missing unit types. Households in the rental market, as well as local housing experts, have identified a need for middle-cost housing options in the City. Due to a large share of older rental housing stock, there are more affordable options than in other areas of the Metro. However, incomes of many local residents are also below high- market housing cost. Employers are seeing that their growth and employment base needs a middle- ground in the rental market that offers both amenities and reduced unit pricing. Housing Needs and DemandCity of Monticello 114 Senior households live in homes in both the rental and ownership markets, but as they continue to age, many need more specialized care or prefer alternate options. Nationally, HUD reports that 93% of medicare-enrollees age 65 and older are already aging in place. This vast majority of the market is remaining in their current housing - staying in non-age restricted housing until life events necessitate a move. Once households do move, many rental options offer combinations of active living, independent living, assisted living, and memory care within the same campus. Within the market, there are several options to help older households find options that work for them: Ensuring a Variety of Options in the Private Market Easing access to Accessory Dwelling Unit construction, whether internal or external to the existing primary residence, helps aging households remain in their home. Some older households design the unit with accessibility standards in mind and look to downsize into it themselves, while other households plan on it as a space for family or a caretaker who can assist them with daily tasks. Ensuring there is access to or developing non-age restricted smaller apartments in more central locations is another method of ensuring older household options in the market. This allows households to live in new construction that has a mix of access and privacy, while still having friends and other households close by. One more option is small lot size development, either in central areas or cottage court communities. These allow both rental and ownership options as households continue to age - as long as the housing is built with aging and universal design in mind (such as patio homes). Active Adult Housing Active Adult Communities are specially-designed developments with accommodations for aging households in mind. They provide upkeep-free housing, easing maintenance burden. They also often provide a sense of community for others who prefer neighbors their own age, as opposed to smaller and accessible unit options in market rentals. And, they can offer a variety of tenure choices, with many allowing residents to own or lease their housing. Independent Living Independent Living is designed for households who can - and want to - accomplish the majority of daily tasks on their own, but need assistance from time to time. These facilities often are inclusive of food and medical care, as well as other potential on-site amenities such as cleaning, laundry, and general housekeeping. These housing units are operated most similarly to a rental unit - and as amenities go above and beyond typical housing cost, are not subject to the typical 30% affordability standard. Assisted Living Assisted Living is designed to make it easy for residents who need assistance with everyday activities in accomplishing tasks that they would not be able to do in their own homes. This is often provided through scheduled, regular support that runs a spectrum from cooking and cleaning to in-unit medical visits, transportation, and medication management. Aging households 115 Unit Demand & Recommendations Market Rate Active Adult Demand 2023 2028 Number of Households with Qualifying Incomes 418 613 Potentially Qualifying Households with Home Sale Equity 145 147 Base Demand 563 760 Unit Type Preference 7%7% Existing City Resident Demand 39 53 New City Resident Demand 26 35 Total Unit Need 65 units 88 units Total Unit Need minus Recent Permitted Units & Approved Units 52 units Subsidized Independent Living Demand 2023 2028 Number of Households with Qualifying Incomes 562 617 Base Demand 562 617 Unit Type Preference 15%15% Existing City Resident Demand 84 93 New City Resident Demand 25 28 Total Unit Need 110 units 120 units Total Unit Need minus Recent Permitted Units & Approved Units 55 units senior unit tyPe demAnd Demand for market rate, active living senior housing comes from those household that prefer this type of unit and can afford it, either because they have sufficient current income or because they have sufficient savings, most often in the form of home sale equity. All households in this demand category, both current and projected, have at least one household member above the age of 55. Many active adult housing communities are age-restricted and become available once a household member reaches the limit (typically 55), while other are not restricted - solely marketing themselves as active adult communities to ensure inclusivity. Total unit need is broken down into two estimates including total estimated need for current demand and demand by 2028 (not including units that already exist within the market) and total unit need subtracting out permitted units (units constructed or under construction since 2020) and units with land use and land division approval (anticipated units). Subsidized independent living refers to income-restricted independent living developments. This offers opportunity for income-limited and fixed-income households to have access to those services they require as they continue to age. Demand is calculated by measure of fixed- and income-restricted households without the potential for home sale equity. This is then adjusted to the average percentage of households who prefer or need to live in this style housing in 55+ age categories. Total unit need is broken down into two estimates including total estimated need for current demand and demand by 2028 (not including units that already exist within the market) and total unit need subtracting out permitted units (units constructed or under construction since 2020) and units with land use and land division approval (anticipated units). Active Adult Housing Subsidized Independent Living Housing Needs and DemandCity of Monticello 116 Market Rate Independent Living Demand 2023 2028 Number of Households with Qualifying Incomes 418 473 Potentially Qualifying Households with Home Sale Equity 145 155 Base Demand 563 682 Unit Type Preference 15%15% Existing City Resident Demand 84 94 New City Resident Demand 34 38 Total Unit Demand 118 units 132 units Total Unit Need minus Recent Permitted Units & Approved Units 45 units Market Rate Assisted Living Demand 2023 2028 Persons in Need with Potential Home Sale Equity 205 276 Percent of Households with Qualifying Incomes 43%43% Number of Income Qualified Households 232 232 Base Demand 319 351 Demand from Current Single Person Households 41 45 Demand from Current Two Person Households 278 306 Unit Type Preference/Need 40%40% Existing City Resident Demand 128 140 New City Resident Demand 51 56 Total Unit Demand 179 units 196 units Total Unit Need minus Recent Permitted Units & Approved Units 129 units senior unit tyPe demAnd Market Rate independent living refers to non-income restricted independent living developments. This offers opportunity for higher-income senior households and those with potential home sale equity to have access to required services as they continue to age. Total unit need is broken down into two estimates including total estimated need for current demand and demand by 2028 (not including units that already exist within the market) and total unit need subtracting out permitted units (units constructed or under construction since 2020) and units with land use and land division approval (anticipated units). Market Rate assisted living refers to assisted living development for households with a higher- income or access to potential home sale equity. Demand is calculated by measure of income- qualified households, as well as potentially qualifying household with access to home sale equity. This is then adjusted based on the local number of single-person senior households in Monticello, and filtered by the estimated percent of households who can continue in-home care as opposed to assisted living. Total unit need is broken down into two estimates including total estimated need for current demand and demand by 2028 (not including units that already exist within the market) and total unit need subtracting out permitted units (units constructed or under construction since 2020) and units with land use and land division approval (anticipated units). Market Rate Independent Living Market Rate Assisted Living