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IEDC Agenda 11-07-2017 AGENDA INDUSTRIAL & ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT COMMITTEE (IEDC) Tuesday, November 7h, 2017 – 7:00 a.m. Boom Island Room, Monticello Community Center ________________________________________________________________________________ Members: Darek Vetsch, Steve Johnson, Joni Pawelk, Wayne Elam, Luke Dahlheimer, Dick Van Allen, Jim Johnson, Don Roberts, Ollie Koropchak-Whit e, Jason Kisner, Andrew Tapper, Kevin Steffensmeier, Mike Carr, Christopher Church, Joe Hammer Liaisons: Mayor Brian Stumpf, Jeff O’Neill, Angela Schumann, Jim Thares, Jacob Thunander, Marcy Anderson, Dave Tombers, Jenn Russell 1. Call to Order 2. Approve Minutes: a. September 26th, 2017 3. Consideration of Adding Items to the Agenda 4. Reports (Verbal Reports): a. Economic Development b. Planning Commission Agenda (attached) c. City Council d. Chamber of Commerce 5. Table Topic – 2017 Housing Demand Report, WSB & Associates (JaT) 6. Adjournment (8:00am) 1 MINUTES INDUSTRIAL & ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT COMMITTEE (IEDC) Tuesday, September 26th 2017 – 7:00 a.m. Boom Island Room, Monticello Community Center ________________________________________________________________________________ Members Present : Darek Vetsch, Steve Johnson, Joni Pawelk, Wayne Elam, Dick Van Allen, Ollie Koropchak-Whit e, Jason Kisner, Andrew Tapper, Kevin Steffensmeier, Mike Carr Members Absent: Luke Dahlheimer, Don Roberts, Pete Gardner Liaisons: Brian Stumpf, Jeff O’Neill, Jim Thares, Jacob Thunander, Marcy Anderson, Dave Tombers 1. Call to Order Darek Vetsch called the meeting of the IEDC to order at 7:00 a.m. 2. Approve Minutes: a. August 1st, 2017 (revised). JONI PAWELK MOVED TO APPROVE THE AUGUST 1ST, 2017 (REVISED) MEETING MINUTES WITH REVISIONS PER BRIAN STUMPF. OLLIE KOROPCHAK-WHITE SECONDED THE MOTION. MOTION CARRIED, 9- 0. b. September 5th, 2017 STEVE JOHNSON MOVED TO APPROVE THE SEPTEMBER 5TH, 2017 MEETING MINUTES. JONI PAWELK SECONDED THE MOTION. MOTION CARRIED, 9-0. 3. Consideration of Adding Items to the Agenda None. 4. Consideration of acceptance of Pete Gardner’s (Xcel Energy, Inc.) resignation and recommendation of appointment of Christopher Church, Xcel Energy, as new IEDC Member WAYNE ELAM MOVED TO ACCEPT PETE GARDNER’S RESIGNATION FROM THE IEDC. STEVE JOHNSON SECONDED THE MOTION. MOTION CARRIED, 9- 0. OLLIE KOROPCHAK-WHITE MOVED TO RECOMMEND TO CITY COUNCIL THE APPOINTMENT OF CHRISTOPHER CHURCH TO THE IEDC BOARD. STEVE JOHNSON SECONDED THE MOTION. MOTION CARRIED, 9-0. 2 5. Consideration of recommending appointment of Joe Hammer to the IEDC Dick Van Allen joined the meeting. Jim Thares stated that the vacant position was previously held by Don Tomann from UMC. The position has been open for several months. WAYNE ELAM MOVED TO RECOMMEND TO CITY COUNCIL THE APPOINTMENT OF JOE HAMMER TO THE IEDC BOARD. ANDREW TAPPER SECONDED THE MOTION. MOTION CARRIED, 10-0. 6. Reports (Verbal Reports): a. Economic Development Jim Thares provided the Economic Development report, which included the following updates: • Project Novus: The City is waiting for more information to be provided. • MN DEED Prospect: They are still interested in Monticello. • Project 6580: The City is waiting for more information. It is the intent to reconnect with the prospect and provide financing options for a 100,000 square foot manufacturing facility. • Barry Fluth: Fluth will ask for consideration at the October EDA meeting to extend the timeline of the Landmark Square project. The project would be geared towards senior housing. Thares added that WSB and Associates would be presenting the housing plan during the November IEDC meeting. • Rand House: Staff sat down with an interested party regarding a concept plan to redevelop an area near the Rand House. • Xcel Energy: Thares added that he is work ing on getting the Xcel Energy Preferred Partnership Site paperwork completed for the old golf course area (currently outside of the city limits). Joni Pawelk asked what the program would accomplish. Thares stated that Xcel has a nationwide real estate site that would better market the area for industrial development. • Small Area Study: The plan was approved by the City Council on September 25th. Next, the City will work on how to implement the plan with an advisory committee of city boards. • Rustech Brewing: The facility received its federal license approval to operate; they are now working on their State and City licenses. They are expecting to open in February 2018. • Shred n’ Go: The company has decided to move onto other communities due to the cost of land in Otter Creek Business Park. b. Planning Commission Agenda (attached) Jacob Thunander reviewed the Planning Commission agenda for the Tuesday, October 3rd, 6 p.m. meeting. He explained that three public hearings would be held including a proposal for a micro-brewery/taproom requiring conditional use 3 permits (CUPs)….for the use and for outdoor seating as well as a text amendment to the Monticello Zoning Ordinance; a preliminary and final plat for Otter Creek 5th Addition, and finally a proposed amendment to the Monticello Zoning Ordinance to accommodate small cell wireless facilities. Wayne Elam added that Ryan Automotive is interested in purchasing two, five acre sites for the development of two car dealerships (Otter Creek 5th Addition). Thunander concluded that the regular agenda included a review of the “Business” zoning districts and the Community Development Director’s Report. c. City Council Brian Stumpf reiterated that the City Council adopted the Small Area Study on September 25th. He also stated that a joint, closed meeting with the EDA was held to discuss the potential purchase of a downtown property. Jeff O’Neill explained that the Monticello Community Center hosted a North America wide tele conference that Cargill Kitchen Solutions put on for its protein division. He also added that Xcel Energy is working to restore and manage a wooded area consisting of 800 acres, 100 of which is in Monticello, near its facilities. The project which would remove buck thorn and weeds is scheduled to start in the winter of 2017-18. Andrew Tapper asked where they would be focusing these efforts. O’Neill responded that most of the work would be north of the river. Wayne Elam stated the Wright County Economic Development Partnership held a broker event in the past week. There were approximately sixty attendees consisting of brokers and cit y representatives at the event. O’Neill added that t he City continues working on the bridge design of Fallon Avenue and with adjoining property owners. The Highway 25 Coalition has continued to meet. The consultant will work with communities to obtain traffic and growth patterns information and will build a model to determine the best area for a river crossing. The Wastewater Treatment Plant would be interviewing two candidates for the operations position. The City Council will determine if will be under City management or staying with Veolia on a contract basis. Steve Johnson asked if there was any movement from the I -94 Coalition to expand I -94 from Monticello to Maple Grove. O’Neill stated the group is very active and that funds through the “Corridors for Commerce” program are available. He stated that a lot of engineering has been completed, but no timeline has been determined. 4 d. Chamber of Commerce Marcy Anderson explained that the Trick-or-Treat event is being held on Thursday, October 26th from 4 to 6:30 p.m. There will be food trucks and KRNC Entertainment will be at West Bridge Park. 7. Consideration of 2017 Industry of the Year Selection Staff handed the ballots out to the IEDC members. Jim Thares explained that the three nominees – UMC, Genereux, and Vector Tool and Manufacturing - for the Industry of the Year were highly qualified for the award. IEDC members provided feedback regarding the businesses qualificat ions for the award and the tours that each business hosted. The ballots were tallied with UMC receiving eight votes and Genereux receiving two votes. JONI PAWELK MOVED TO SELECT UMC FOR THE 2017 INDUSTRY OF THE YEAR AWARD. OLLIE KOROPCHAK-WHITE SECONDED THE MOTION. MOTION CARRIED, 10-0. 8. Adjournment (8:00am) DICK VAN ALLEN MOVED TO ADJOURN THE MEETING AT 8:00 A.M. OLLIE KOROPCHAK-WHITE SECONDED THE MOTION. MOTION CARRIED, 10-0. Recorder: Jacob Thunander ____ Approved: November 7th, 2017 Attest: ____________________________________________ Jim Thares, Economic Development Director AGENDA REGULAR MEETING - MONTICELLO PLANNING COMMISSION Monday, November 6th, 2017 - 6:00 p.m. Mississippi Room, Monticello Community Center Commissioners: Jo hn Alstad, Brad Fyle, Sam Murdoff, Marc Simpson, Katie Peterson Council Liaison: Charlotte Gabler Staff: Angela Schumann, Steve Grittman (NAC), Jacob Thunander, John Rued 1. General Business A. Call to Order B. Consideration of approving minutes a. Regular Meeting Minutes – October 3rd, 2017 C. Citizen Comments D. Consideration of adding items to the agenda 2. Public Hearings A. Public Hearing - Consideration of a request for Conditional Use Permit to establish a Vehicle Sales & Rental use in a B-3 (Highway Business) Zoning District Applicant: Bob Ryan B. Public Hearing – Consideration of a request for Conditional Use Permit for an approximately 624 square foot residential Accessory Use Structure – Major in an R-1 (Single-Family Residence) District Applicant: Dwayne Jones C. Public Hearing - Consideration of a request to amend the Monticello Zoning Ordinance Chapter 6 – Non-Conformities for non-conforming conditions related to construction or reconstruction of public improvements Applicant: City of Monticello D. Consideration of a request to amend the Monticello Zoning Ordinance, Chapter 5, Section 3 – Accessory Use Standards for accessory use parking on abutting parcels serving established principal uses Applicant: City of Monticello E. Public Hearing - Consideration of a request to amend the Monticello Zoning Ordinance Chapter 5, Section 1, Table 5-1 Uses by District, Chapter 5, Section 2 – Use Specific Standards and Chapter 5, Section 3 – Accessory Use Standards for allowable principal and accessory uses in Commercial/Business zoning districts Applicant: City of Monticello 3. Regular Agenda A. Consideration of an update on 2017 Workpla n and 2018 Workplan Development B. Consideration of the Community Development Directors Report 4. Added Items 5. Adjournment IEDC Agenda: 11/7/17 5. Table Topic – 2017 Housing Demand Report, WSB & Associates (JaT) A. REFERENCE AND BACKGROUND: The EDA adopted the 2017 Housing Study at their regular meeting on June 14th, 2017. The Housing Report contains information about the community and market area population demographics, growth trends and pairs that with information regarding the available housing inventory, trends, occupancy and affordability measures to arrive at a market demand for several specific housing categories. Those categories consist of entry level and step-up housing and general occupancy market rate rental and senior rental products. The report provides six key recommendations t o fulfill the current and projected unmet demand as well. Jim Gromberg and Kurt Bearinger, WSB, will be present at the meeting to provide a power point slide show of the study. SUPPORTING DATA: A. 2017 Housing Study, authored by WSB & Associates JULY 3, 2017 Prepared for City of Monticello 505 Walnut Street Monticello, MN 55362 (763) 295-2711 Project No. 2596-34 CITY OF MONTICELLO HOUSING MARKET REPORT 2017 1 | P a g e Acknowledgements We would like to thank everyone who participated in the development of the Monticello Housing Study, including the Monticello City staff, Wright County Assessor’s Office and the various realtors in the community. Completed in coordination with: WSB & Associates, Inc. 2 | P a g e PURPOSE AND SCOPE OF RESEARCH Housing is an important component of all communities. Housing quality, availability, affordability and diversity enhances the quality of life, supports economic development, and contributes to a community’s sense of place. WSB & Associates, Inc. was engaged by the City of Monticello to conduct a Housing Study to assess the housing market conditions and provide recommendations for housing needs within the City of Monticello. The market analysis focused on the housing needs within the City of Monticello including market rate, subsidized, and move- up housing for various age categories including owner-occupied and renter occupied housing options. Monticello’s Housing Market Study (“Study”) should be used as a reference to guide planning efforts, financial initiatives and strategies, and provide direction to the City regarding the approach it should take; the types of housing opportunities the City should promote, and the roles in providing those opportunities. This Study is intended to be flexible to meet unforeseen housing needs and future land use decisions. It should be noted that the findings presented in this report should not be used to determine the market feasibility of any single development or project; rather, it is designed to be a broad analysis of the entire Monticello housing market and is intended to guide planning efforts, especially as they relate to future land use designations. The Study contains data from both primary and secondary research. Primary research includes interviews with local officials, and the real estate community. Secondary research data includes data from the US Census, American Community Survey, Department of Employment and Economic Development (DEED), Wright County, Business Analyst1, and other local planning agencies. Secondary research is always used as a basis for analysis and is carefully reviewed along with other factors that may impact projections. All the information on pending developments was gathered by WSB & Associates, Inc. and is accurate to the best of our knowledge. INVENTORY AND ANALYSIS DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS This section looks at the demographic characteristics that underlie the need for various types of housing in Monticello. The U.S. Census and Business Analyst served as the primary sources for the demographic overview. While population projections are an effective planning tool when used correctly, their accuracy is dependent on several factors including assumptions for birth rates, death rates, migration, and economic conditions. Assumptions are based on past trends and the best information available at the time, but assumptions do not always remain true, and unexpected changes can occur. Therefore, Monticello should use the population projections presented in this Market Study as a general guide and not as an absolute certainty. Moreover, the City should periodically review and update the population projections based upon new conditions. WSB & Associates, Inc. determined the Study Area to be used as comparison points. The area was based on geographic and man-made boundaries, community orientation, our knowledge of the area, and the dictates of the proposal. Considering these factors, we determined a Study Area to include the cities of Monticello, Big Lake, Buffalo, Elk River, Becker, and Rogers. In addition, Wright County and the State 1 Business Analyst is a data processing service that uses ESRI technology, U.S. Census data, and American Community Survey data. 3 | P a g e of Minnesota are also included as part of the analysis in the report. Though outside the scope of this report, it is important to note that surrounding communities’ populations and available housing stock may affect Monticello’s housing market. HISTORIC POPULATION CHANGE The total population of Monticello has grown substantially since the 1980s. Between 1980 and 2010, the City has grown by 597% adding 10,929 new residents, accounting for 18% of the study areas total growth. During the last U.S. Census period (2000-2010), Monticello saw a 38% growth with the addition of 4,891 new residents. Please refer to Table 1-A for further details. Figure 1: City of Monticello, MN 4 | P a g e Table 1-A: POPULATION CHANGE 1980-2010 Change US Census 1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2010 Place 1980 1990 2000 2010 No. % No. % No. % Monticello 1,830 4,941 7,868 12,759 3,111 170.0% 2,927 59.2% 4,891 62.2% Big Lake 2,210 3,113 6,063 10,060 903 40.9% 2,950 94.8% 3,997 65.9% Buffalo 4,560 6,856 10,097 15,453 2,296 50.4% 3,241 47.3% 5,356 53.0% Elk River 6,785 11,143 16,447 22,974 4,358 64.2% 5,304 47.6% 6,527 39.7% Becker 601 902 2,673 4,538 301 50.1% 1,771 196.3% 1,865 69.8% Rogers 652 698 3,588 11,197 46 7.1% 2,890 414.0% 7,609 212.1 % Study Area Total 16,638 27,653 46,736 76,981 11,015 66.2% 19,083 69.0% 30,245 64.7% Wright County 58,681 68,710 89,986 124,700 10,029 17.10% 21,276 30.90% 34,714 38.50 % Minnesota 3,806,10 3 4,075,907 4,375,09 9 4,919,47 9 269,804 7.10% 299,19 2 7.30% 544,38 0 12.40 % Source: U.S. Census Bureau Monticello’s age distribution has remained relatively consistent from 2000 to 2010 with the largest age group being 25 to 34 in both census periods. The percentage of people 19 and younger decreased from 33.7% to 32.8% while the percentage of those 65 and older increased from 8.9% to 9.8%. Keeping with national trends, the median age increased in Monticello from 2000 to 2010 from 29.8 to 31.6. Please refer to Table 2-A for further details. Table 2-A: MONTICELLO HISTORIC AGE DEMOGRAPHICS 2000-2010 2000 2010 Number % Number % Total Population 7,868 100.0 12759 100.0 Under 5 years 799 10.2 1292 10.1 5 to 9 years 725 9.2 1101 8.6 10 to 14 years 610 7.8 969 7.6 15 to 19 years 511 6.5 823 6.5 20 to 24 years 547 7 731 5.7 25 to 34 years 1,571 20 2255 17.7 35 to 44 years 1,215 15.4 1991 15.6 45 to 54 years 719 9.1 1505 11.8 55 to 59 years 271 3.4 490 7.0 60 to 64 years 202 2.6 395 3.1 65 to 74 years 316 4 584 5.0 75 to 84 years 260 3.3 394 3.0 85 years and over 122 1.6 229 1.8 Median age (years) 29.8 (X) 31.4 ( X ) Source: U.S. Census Bureau 5 | P a g e POPULATION ESTIMATES AND PROJECTIONS Population projections are an effective planning tool when used correctly. They are based upon assumptions for birth rates, death rates, migration, and economic conditions. In 2010, the U.S. Census reported Monticello’s population as 12,759. Monticello’s estimated population was 13,568 in 2016, and is projected to increase to 14,383 in 2021. Again, it is impossible to know with certainty what Monticello’s future population will be, but it is reasonable to believe that any future population increases resulting from new housing development or redevelopment in Monticello will be offset (to some extent) by population trends resulting from an aging population and diminishing household size. However, based on available data, Monticello’s population will likely see a continued increase through year 2021. It is anticipated that Monticello will account for 18.8% of the Study Area’s population growth between 2016 and 2021. Monticello’s expected rate of population change is roughly equal to the County and double the State. Refer to Table 1-B: Projected Population Change: 2010-2021 for additional information. TABLE 1-B: PROJECTED POPULATION CHANGE: 2010-2021 Change U.S. Census Bureau 2010-2016 2016-2021 Place 2010 2016 2021 No. % No. % Monticello 12,759 13,568 14,383 809 6.3% 815 6.0% Big Lake 10,060 10,629 11,080 569 5.7% 451 4.2% Buffalo 15,453 16,093 16,699 640 4.1% 606 3.8% Elk River 22,974 23,984 24,891 1,010 4.4% 907 3.8% Becker 4,538 4,858 5,253 320 7.1% 395 8.1% Rogers 11,197 12,675 13,844 1,478 13.2% 1,169 9.2% Study Area Total 76,981 81,807 86,150 4,826 6.3% 4,343 5.3% Wright County 124,700 132,801 140,895 8,101 6.5% 8,094 6.1% Minnesota 4,919,479 5,541,669 5,720,647 622,190 12.6% 178,978 3.2% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, ESRI forecasts The City of Monticello has developed its own projections based on building permits and certificates of occupancy over the past two years. The Minnesota State Demographer’s 2015 Annual estimate was utilized as base reference point. It indicated the City had 13,311 residents at the end of 2014. During the 2015-2016 time-frame, the City issued permits for 307 additional housing units. Using ESRI’s estimated household size of 2.72, this yields an estimated population of 14,146 at the end of 2016. In recognition of the trend of increasing household size and the moderate pace of new residential development and household formation in the City, the projections for the 2017-2021 period indicate an increase of 893 people (2.74 persons per 326 new units or 65 +/- units per year). The annual population increase of 179 is sixteen (16) people higher than ESRI’s annual projections based on U.S. Census Bureau data estimates. Again, ESRI’s figures appear to have under-accounted for the sizeable number of new units in the community during 2015-2016. Basically, ESRI does not factor in the steady recovery in building permit issuance in this period and applies its projections to a lower beginning population figure than a more realistic number. Refer to Tables 1-C and 2-C for more information. 6 | P a g e HOUSEHOLD CHARACTERISTICS AND FORECASTS In 2010, the US Census reported 4,693 households in Monticello and 3,164 families. A household refers to a housing unit occupied by at least one person. A household can involve a family living in a housing unit or it can involve unrelated people sharing an apartment or housing unit. A family refers to a household consisting of a householder and one or more other people related to the householder by birth, marriage, or adoption. In the future, it is likely that the percentage of married couples without children living with them will increase. The percentage of single parent households will also increase. Family households with no spouse present accounted for approximately 30% of the family households in Monticello in 2010. The average household size in Monticello in 2000 was 2.64 persons compared to 2.68 in 2010 according to the U.S. Census Bureau. These figures were projected to increase, according to ESRI, to 2.72 in 2016 and 2.74 by 2021. According to the American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates, Monticello has seen a decrease in family households, a decrease in households with children under the age of 18, and an increase in non-family households (see Table 1-D: Household Occupancy Characteristics for further details). These trends held true from 2009-2014 aside from an outlying year (2014 – highlighted in gray on Table 1-D) when there was an increase in family households, an increase in families with children, and a decrease in nonfamily households. This may have been caused by an increased availability of single- family housing units. These trends have implications for the demand of future housing types in Monticello. Since the average household size is projected to decrease and the trend of family households has been decreasing, a shift in demand will likely occur less for 3-4 bedroom, single-family homes and more for smaller housing units, and multi-family units. TABLE 1-C: MONTICELLO HOUSING PERMITS & POPULATION FORECAST CALCULATIONS Year: Single-Family Detached Single-Family Attached Multifamily Total 2010 2 0 0 2 2011 2 0 0 2 2012 22 0 0 22 2013 49 3 0 52 2014 70 3 0 73 2015 38 6 136 180 2016 61 0 66 127 Average Total 244 12 202 458 65.2 per year POPULATION FORECAST CALCULATIONS Time-Frame New Housing Units Average HH Size New Residents (Permits x HH Size) 2014 Pop End of 2016 Pop 2015 - 2016 307 2.72 835 13,311 14,146 Time-Frame New Housing Units Average HH Size New Residents (Permits x HH Size) 2016 Pop End of 2021 Pop 2017 - 2021 326 (65.2 x 5) 2.74 893 14,146 15,039 Source: City of Monticello, Minnesota State Demographer TABLE 2-C: POPULATION PROJECTION DIFFERENCE 2016 2021 Annual Growth City of Monticello 14,146 15,039 179 ESRI 13,568 14,383 163 Difference 578 656 16 Source: ESRI forecasts, The City of Monticello 7 | P a g e TABLE 1-D: HOUSEHOLD OCCUPANCY CHARACTERISTICS – 2009-2014 Family Family with Children Nonfamily 1-person 2-person 3-person 4-or-more-person 2009 72.2% 47.0% 27.8% 22.0% 29.8% 18.8% 29.4% 2010 69.6% 46.4% 30.4% 25.1% 25.8% 18.6% 30.6% 2011 68.5% 45.3% 31.5% 25.8% 26.9% 16.9% 30.9% 2012 66.8% 43.8% 33.2% 26.5% 25.3% 19.1% 29.1% 2013 66.2% 42.3% 33.8% 27.0% 27.0% 16.4% 29.6% 2014 68.8% 43.8% 31.2% 24.9% 29.0% 13.7% 32.4% Source: American Community Survey 5-year Estimates Between 2010 and 2016, the number of new households (4,693 and 4,936 respectively) has grown proportionally to the increase in population (12,759 and 13,568 respectively) suggesting stability in household size (see Table 1-E: Historic and Projected Households: 2010-2021). The number of households in Monticello is projected to increase by 5.3% by 2021 accounting for 18.2% of the study area’s projected household growth. TABLE 1-E: HISTORIC AND PROJECTED HOUSEHOLDS: 2010-2021 Change US Census 2010-2016 2016-2021 Place 2010 2016 2021 No. % No. % Monticello 4,693 5,136* 5,399 443* 8.6% 263 4.9% Big Lake 3,377 3,566 3,720 189 5.6% 154 4.3% Buffalo 5,700 5,872 6,058 172 3.0% 186 3.2% Elk River 8,080 8,452 8,780 372 4.6% 328 3.9% Becker 1,526 1,635 1,772 109 7.1% 137 8.4% Rogers 3,748 4,232 4,610 484 12.9% 378 8.9% Study Area Total 27,124 28,893 30,339 1,769 6.1% 1,446 4.8% Wright County 44,473 46,817 49,383 2,344 5.3% 2,566 5.5% Minnesota 2,087,227 2,176,475 2,258,733 89,248 4.3% 82,258 3.8% *The 200 occupied units of the new IRET Apartment Complex were accounted for here. Note: There is potential for household growth to exceed these projections based on the housing market’s recovery from the Great Recession. Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, ESRI forecasts, WSB & Associates 8 | P a g e AGE COMPOSITION & IMPACT ON HOUSING In addition to knowing how many people currently live and will likely live in Monticello, an understanding of the population’s age composition can help the City plan for and provide necessary and desired services for its residents. The following provides an overview of the existing age composition of Monticello’s residents and the anticipated changes in age composition that will occur through the year 2021 (see Table 1-F: Age Composition 2010-2021). Composition will remain relatively consistent outside of a slight decrease in the 25-34 age category (by 2.1%) and slight increase in the 55-64 age category (by 2.5%) which reflects aging baby boomers and a smaller succeeding generation. Extrapolating further past year 2021, Monticello can expect a surge of 7,438 residents entering the over- sixty-five (65) age group as is indicated by the red box in Table 1-F. The age cohort closest to age sixty- five (65) typically is comfortable downsizing their living situation. This is a substantial number of households who will be causing the demand in housing types to change in Monticello for future years as current projections do not have a corresponding offset in future age groups. TABLE 1-F: AGE COMPOSITION 2010-2021 2010 2016 2021 Age Number % Number % Number % Age 0 - 4 1,292 10.1% 1,206 8.90% 1,293 9.00% Age 5 - 9 1,101 8.6% 1,150 8.50% 1,226 8.50% Age 10 - 14 969 7.6% 1,033 7.60% 1,163 8.10% Age 15 - 19 823 6.5% 924 6.80% 949 6.60% Age 20 - 24 731 5.7% 901 6.60% 903 6.30% Age 25 - 34 2,255 17.7% 1,968 14.50% 2,246 15.60% Age 35 - 44 1,991 15.6% 2,065 15.20% 2,157 15.00% Age 45 - 54 1,505 11.8% 1,771 13.10% 1,682 11.70% Age 55 - 64 885 6.9% 1,240 9.10% 1,353 9.40% Age 65 - 74 584 4.6% 751 5.50% 836 5.80% Age 75 - 84 394 3.1% 372 2.70% 404 2.80% Age 85+ 229 1.8% 185 1.40% 171 1.20% Median Age 31.6 -- 33.1 -- 32.3 -- Source: U.S. Census Bureau, ESRI forecasts HOUSING SUPPLY Number and Types of Housing Units The US Census indicates that there were 4,693 households in Monticello in 2010: 1,749 more units than identified in 2000 (2,944). Data describing the household type, as shown below in Table 1-E, was only available as an estimate. The most recent data is from the 2014 American Community Survey. Roughly, 54.5% of the housing units in 2014 were single-family detached houses: this is considerably lower than Wright County (76.4%) and lower than the State of Minnesota (67.2%). In 2014, roughly 18.2% of the housing units in Monticello were single-family attached units (townhouses): this is almost double the figure for Wright County (9.8%) and much higher than the State (7.5%). In 2014, the City also had a considerably higher percentage of multi-family housing than Wright County but was consistent with the State of Minnesota. Refer to Table 1-G: Housing Supply by Type - 2014, for more information. 9 | P a g e TABLE 1-G: HOUSING SUPPLY BY TYPE - 2014 Housing Type Monticello Units Monticello % Wright County Units Wright County % State Units State % Single-Family Detached 2,663 54.5% 37,715 76.4% 1,589,773 67.2% Single-Family Attached 889 18.2% 4,863 9.8% 176,173 7.5% 2-4 Unit Multi- Family 123 2.5% 799 1.6% 104,411 4.4% 5+ Unit Multi- Family 787 16.1% 3,609 7.3% 410,648 17.4% Mobile Home 422 8.6% 2,335 4.7% 82,441 3.5% Other - 0.0% 50 0.1% 703 0.0% Total Units 4,884 100% 49,371 100% 2,364,149 100% Source: 2010-2014 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates Comparison and Forecast of Owner-Occupied and Renter-Occupied Units It is important to have a balance of owner-occupied and renter-occupied units. In general, many communities strive to have roughly 65-70% of their housing units owner-occupied and 30-35% renter occupied. In 2010, approximately 68% of the housing units in Monticello were owner-occupied; this is slightly lower than Wright County (75%), and about the same as the State of Minnesota (68%). During 2016, the City of Monticello’s housing occupancy ratio (owner: renter) has changed slightly, with 69% of the housing units being owner occupied and 25% being renter occupied. In 2021, the housing occupancy ratio is forecasted to remain consistent with past trends. Refer to Table 1-H: Housing Tenure by Type – 2010, for additional information. Please be aware that there is roughly a 6% gap between owner occupied housing units and renter occupied housing units; this gap will be addressed in the following section. TABLE 1-H: HOUSING TENURE - 2010 - 2021 Owner Occupied Housing Units % Renter Occupied Housing Units % Location: 2010 2016 2021 2010 2016 2021 Monticello 68.2% 68.7% 68.1% 26.2% 25.3% 24.9% Wright County 75.8% 74.7% 74.7% 14.9% 15.8% 15.9% State of MN 64.9% 64.0% 63.9% 24.0% 24.8% 24.9% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, ESRI forecasts Vacancies Today, the City of Monticello faces an overall housing vacancy rate of 6.0%, which is 3.4% lower than the vacancy rate for Wright County, and 5.2% lower than that of the State. Monticello’s vacancy rate has increased by 0.4% since 2010 and is projected to increase by 1% in 2021 which will still be significantly lower than the County and State. Both the County and State are projected to remain consistent through year 2021. The increase of vacant housing units in Monticello can partly be explained by the fact that the number of housing units in the City increased by nearly 6% from 2010-2016, and the housing market experienced a significant decline. Please see Table 1-I for further details. 10 | P a g e TABLE 1-I: VACANT HOUSING FORCAST & COMPARISION – 2010-2021 Year City Vacant Units City Percent Vacant County Percent Vacant State Percent Vacant 2010 280 5.6% 9.2% 11.1% 2016 315 6.0% 9.4% 11.2% 2021 391 7.0% 9.4% 11.2% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, ESRI forecasts The rental housing average vacancy rate is low in Monticello but is projected to increase indicating a demand for addition rental units at all levels of affordability. Table 2-I indicates specific vacancy rates for eight of the rental properties in the City. TABLE 2-I: RENTAL APARTMENTS – VACANCIES AND RATES Vacancy Rates Ridgemont Apartments 0.0% $566 - $610 River Park View Apartments 0.0% 30% of income Ridgway Apartments 2.3% $460 - $725 Hillside Terrace 0.0% 30% of income Cedar Crest Apartments 0.0% 30% of income Broadway Square 0.0% 30% of income 7th Street Townhomes 6.7% $825 Monticello Crossings* 1.0% $925 - $2,210 Monticello Village 3.3% $1,018 – $1,610 Average Vacancy Rate 1.5% * 202-unit IRET Apartment Complex built in 2016 Source: WSB & Associates Phone Interviews Value of Housing The median value of owner-occupied housing units in Monticello in 2016 was $179,095 and is projected to increase by $30,314 in 2021. Most housing in Monticello is valued in the range of $150,000 to $199,999, which is consistent with the County and State. In comparison to low and moderate valued housing, there is a relatively limited choice of higher valued housing units in Monticello. Only 16.5% of owner-occupied housing units have a value of $250,000 or greater compared to 38.8% in the County and 36.7% in the State. The median value of owner-occupied housing in Wright County was $216,395 and $205,288 in the State of Minnesota. Monticello needs to focus on later-stage housing opportunities to meet the demand for higher valued housing units. Refer to Table 1-J: Owner-Occupied Housing by Value -2016 for additional information. Table 2-J illustrates the affect that the Great Recession had on housing values in Monticello. Note that median sale price fell below median appraised value in mid-2007, then recovered and surpassed appraised value in 2011to regain a more traditional relationship. Data from Table 2-J came from the Wright County Assessor. 11 | P a g e TABLE 1-J: OWNER-OCCUPIED HOUSING BY VALUE - 2016 Value City Units City % Wright County % State % Less than $50,000 411 11.4% 6.5% 6.5% $50,000 to $99,999 240 6.7% 4.8% 9.4% $100,000 to $149,999 407 11.3% 11.8% 14.7% $150,000 to $199,999 1282 35.5% 21.4% 17.9% $200,000 to $249,999 672 18.6% 16.7% 14.7% $250,000 to $299,999 269 7.5% 11.5% 10.3% $300,000 to $399,999 217 6.0% 13.2% 12.2% $400,000 to $499,99 65 1.8% 6.4% 6.1% $500,000 to $749,999 18 0.5% 4.5% 4.9% $750,000 to $999,999 22 0.6% 1.8% 1.9% $1,000,000 or More 5 0.1% 1.4% 1.3% Median Value $179,095 $216,395 $205,288 Source: ESRI Forecasts Owner Monthly Costs as Percentage of Household Income Housing decisions should not be based solely on the value of housing, but also the cost of housing expenses in relation to household income. In general, housing costs (taxes, insurance, principal, interest, etc.) should not exceed 30% of total household income. In 2014, only 19% of homeowners in Monticello had monthly costs that were more than 30% of their household income, compared to 27% in Wright County and 29% in the State of Minnesota (see Table 1-K: Owner Monthly Costs as Percent of Household Income -2014). These figures suggest that housing was more affordable in Monticello than in Wright County and the State of Minnesota in 2014 possibly due to age and livability of housing units. This is an important strength for the City as it continues to grow and evolve into a regional center linking the Twin Cities Metro with the St. Cloud MSA. Monticello should consider a goal to maintain appropriate amounts of affordable housing to mitigate the negative impacts of a housing price correction like that seen during the Great Recession (2007-2010). This will allow for the community to see steady and modestly increasing home values and reduce the $130,000 $140,000 $150,000 $160,000 $170,000 $180,000 $190,000 $200,000 $210,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 CHART 2-J: MONTICELLO HOUSING VALUES THOUGH THE GREAT RECESSION Median Sale Median Appraised 12 | P a g e likelihood of rapidly increasing home prices causing homeowners to be required to spend a larger portion of their income on housing. While the provision of affordable housing is one side of the coin, the City should also incorporate a plan to encourage the development and attraction of livable wage employment opportunities in the City. TABLE 1-K: OWNER MONTHLY COSTS AS PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLD INCOME - 2014 Percent of Household Income City Units* City % County % State % Less than 20% 1,286 47.0% 39.0% 41.3% 20.0 to 24.9% 611 22.3% 18.9% 17.8% 25.0 to 29.9% 611 11.4% 14.8% 12.3% 30.0 to 34.9% 169 6.2% 7.6% 7.9% 35.0% or More 361 13.2% 19.6% 20.8% Total 2,738 100% 100% 100% Source: 2010-2014 American Community Survey *Housing Units with a Mortgage Contract Rent In 2014, rental housing units accounted for roughly 25% of the occupied housing units in Monticello. In 2014, roughly 88% of units had a monthly rent of $500 or more, which is higher than Wright County (87%), and the State of Minnesota (79%). See Table 1-L: Renter-Occupied Housing Units by Gross Rent – 2010, for additional information. TABLE 1-L: RENTER-OCCUPIED HOUSING UNITS BY GROSS RENT - 2014 City County State Monthly Rent Units % Units % Units % Less than $200 23 2.0% 141 2.0% 24,764 4.2% $200 to $299 57 4.9% 233 3.3% 31,166 5.3% $300 to $499 66 5.6% 582 8.2% 68,601 11.6% $500 to $749 367 31.2% 2136 30.1% 159,802 27.1% $750 to $999 322 27.4% 2012 28.3% 139,386 23.6% $1000 to $1,499 306 26.0% 1514 21.3% 105,182 17.8% $1,500 or more 34 2.9% 188 2.6% 34,297 5.8% No Rent Paid 0 0.0% 300 4.2% 27,938 4.7% Median Rent Paid $773 $778 $747 Total Specified Units 1,175 100% 7,106 100% 590,136 100% Source: 2010-2014 American Community Survey Renter Monthly Costs as Percentage of Household Income In 2014, 46.5% of renters paid over 30% of their household income in rent (see Table 1-M: Gross Rent as Percent of Household Income – 2014). This number is slightly lower than Wright County (47.7%) but higher than the State of Minnesota (46.1%). This suggests that there is not an abundance of affordable rental units in Monticello and efforts should be made to decrease rental costs. 13 | P a g e TABLE 1-M: GROSS RENT AS A PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLD INCOME - 2014 Percent of Household Income Units Percent Wright County State Less than 10% 0 0.0% 3.2% 3.5% 10 to 14.9% 73 6.2% 8.1% 8.2% 15 to 19.9% 205 17.4% 13.6% 12.3% 20 to 24.9% 262 22.3% 13.1% 12.5% 25 to 29.9% 72 6.1% 9.1% 11.4% 30 to 34.9% 194 16.5% 9.7% 8.8% 35 to 39.9% 86 7.3% 8.1% 6.1% 40 to 49.9% 102 8.7% 9.8% 8.1% 50.0% or More 164 14.0% 20.1% 23.1% Not Computed 17 1.4% 5.2% 6.0% Total Specified Units 1,175 100% 100% 100% Source: 2010-2014 American Community Survey Age and Maintenance of Housing Stock In 2014, roughly 39% (1,910 units) of the City’s units were constructed before 1990 (greater than 27 years old). Just 5.4% of the housing units in Monticello were built before 1939. Monticello has a relatively new housing stock in comparison to Wright County and the State of Minnesota, with 60.8% of housing units being built since 1990 compared with 50.4% for the County and 29.0% for the State. TABLE 1-N: YEAR STUCTURE BUILT Year Structure Built Monticello Units Percent Wright County State 2010 or later 0 0.0% 0.7% 0.8% 2000 to 2009 1,697 34.7 32.2% 14.6% 1990 to 1999 1,277 26.1% 18.5% 13.6% 1980 to 1989 748 15.3% 12.2% 13.0% 1970 to 1979 654 13.4% 16.0% 15.6% 1960 to 1969 63 1.3% 4.9% 9.8% 1950 to 1959 96 2.0% 4.1% 10.4% 1940 to 1949 86 1.8% 2.3% 4.8% 1939 or Earlier 263 5.4% 9.2% 17.3% Total Specified Units 4,884 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Source: 2010-2014 American Community Survey 14 | P a g e LIFE-CYCLE HOUSING AND PROFILE OF HOUSEHOLDS The housing needs of a community relate to the demographic profile of the household. Typically, households move through several life-cycle stages; including entry-level households, first time homeowners, move-up buyers, empty nesters/young seniors, and senior citizens. The following describes each of these household types and the effect that they have on housing demands in Monticello. Entry-Level Households People in the 18 to 24-year-old age group typically leave their childhood home and establish their own household. They often rent a house or an apartment because they generally do not have the income and savings needed to buy a home. In addition, many people in this age group move frequently, so they are hesitant to buy a house. They are also more likely to share housing with other unrelated people of similar age. The entry-level household population in Monticello will fluctuate annually. Many Monticello residents that graduate from high school move to other communities to attend a university or to pursue other job opportunities. In the long term, unless current conditions and trends change, Monticello is projected to see a 0.5% decrease in the 15 to 24-year-old age group by year 2021 (Table 1-F). Job opportunities aimed at retaining this age cohort need to be strongly considered. Nevertheless, there will always be a strong need to provide affordable housing for people of all ages. First-Time Homeowners First time homeowners are typically in their 20s and 30s. They are usually “move-up” renters, meaning they “move up” from an apartment to a home. They are often married with young children, but increasingly, first time homeowners are single. They are prone to moving within several years of buying their first home for several reasons; including, increased salaries allow them to move to more expensive housing, children may require larger housing, and job opportunities may require that they move to another community. Monticello is projected to see a 0.3% increase in the 20-442 age group by year 2021 (Table 1- F), which could translate into an increased demand for lower-end housing units. Move-Up Buyers Move-up buyers are typically in their 30s and 40s. They move up from the smaller, less expensive house that they had previously purchased. From an economic growth perspective, this is an important age group of people. Typically, move-up buyers have children in school and an established career. They are less likely to move to another community and start over. Also, professionals who are moving to a community to advance their career are generally looking to move to a more expensive house than what they had in their previous community. Monticello is projected to see a 0.5% decrease in the 25-543 age group by the year 2021 (Table 1-F). This is 0.3% lower than the study area average of a 0.8% decrease. This may be an indicator that there is a shortage of available units for move-up buyers. Monticello must continue to 2 People in their 40s were included due to U.S. Census age groups. 3 People in their 20s and 50s were included due to U.S. Census age groups. 15 | P a g e ensure that it has adequate choices for those who are looking for move -up housing that will satisfy their needs until they are in their 50s and beyond. Empty Nesters and Young Seniors Empty nesters and young seniors are generally in their 50s, 60s, and early 70s. Often, their children have moved out of their house and left them with a larger house than needed. Empty nesters and young seniors often want to live in a smaller home, like a townhouse or patio home, that has less maintenance. The baby boom generation in Monticello is projected to increase by 0.6% by year 2021 (Table 1-F). A notable increase in apartment rentals in Monticello by members of this population segment is likely to occur. A large portion of these individuals will likely desire higher-end apartment complexes with quality amenities so they can maintain their current lifestyles. Senior Citizens This age group is generally in their late 70s and older and are often looking for low maintenance or assisted living housing. As the population ages, Monticello must continually ensure that it has adequate housing to meet the needs of seniors. The City is projected to see a 0.1% decrease in the 75 and older age group by year 2021 (Table 1-F). Monticello should continue to strive to be a senior-friendly community that values the contributions of seniors, promotes positive intergenerational interactions, considers the needs of seniors in community planning, supports the efforts of seniors to live independently, and acknowledges the role that family, friends, and neighbors play in the life of seniors. Special Needs Housing for those with special needs includes housing for those with mental and/or physical disabilities or health issues and those who need temporary or transitional housing. The number of people with special housing needs is expected to increase as the population of Monticello continues to age and grow. Senior Housing Market Monticello City staff members have identified a need for senior housing market analysis. Based upon population growth forecasts, household forecasts, and the current age of householders, we can extrapolate what the senior housing market will require. Table 1-O: Senior Housing Projections 2010-2021 illustrates how the change in the sixty-five and older population will affect the number of occupied housing units. By year 2021, Monticello will need 940 units suitable for senior residents to meet demand, which is an increase of 136 units from 2010. We consider senior housing to be any housing unit (affordable, renter, duplex, patio house, etc.) that meets the needs of residents sixty-five (65) and older. 16 | P a g e TABLE 1-O: SENIOR HOUSING PROJECTIONS – 2010-2021 Year 2010 2016 2021 Total Population 12,759 13,568 14,383 Total Occupied Units 4,693 4,936 5,199 65+ Population 1,207 1,308 1,411 65+ Population Percent 9.5% 9.6% 9.8% Units Occupied by 65+ Population 804 871 940 Percentage of Units Occupied by 65+ Population 17.1% 17.7% 18.1% Source: U.S. Census, ESRI Forecasts, WSB & Associates AFFORDABLE HOUSING Affordable housing is important to a strong economy and a healthy community. Increasingly, housing is not affordable for many working families and the lack of affordable housing for people of all ages and incomes causes families stress, dampens productivity and stifles job growth. Various organizations define “affordable housing” in many ways. The Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) generally defines housing as affordable if it costs less than thirty (30) percent of a household’s income. However, HUD’s Section 8 Income Guidelines are the basis for most affordable housing programs. Section 8 guidelines define low and moderate incomes on a sliding scale, depending on the number of persons in the family. For example, a four-person household is considered “moderate income” if their family income is eighty (80) percent of the area’s median family income. Most housing affordability programs and data place emphasis on creating owner-occupied units at eighty (80) percent of the median family income (moderate income) and rental units at fifty (50) percent of the median family income (low income). Since low income persons are typically renters, the definition of “low income” is tied to the number of persons in each unit. This study identifies “affordable owner occupied units” as those affordable for moderate income families (eighty (80) percent of median income). Affordable rental units are based on fifty (50) percent of the median income and reflected on a per capita and per family basis. It is very important to note that the definition of “affordable” in terms of a dollar amount will continue to change as the cost of living increases and interest rates change. Therefore, the City should periodically review income/housing statistics and update the definition as warranted. Factors such as interest rates will impact housing affordability in both a positive and negative manner. Income by Age of Householder Looking at income data is also important when predicting future housing demands in the City of Monticello. In 2010, the median household income in Monticello was $68,135 ($67,963 in the County) and the largest employment industries were educational, health and social services, manufacturing, and retail trade. By 2016, the median household income increased significantly to approximately $76,954 ($73,798 in the County) and the top employment industries were the same. Monticello’s median household income is projected to increase to $85,218 by 2021 ($83,257 in the County) according to ESRI Business Analyst. 17 | P a g e Income distributions as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau can be compared to affordability standards to determine how many households and families in the City of Monticello may require affordable housing. Table 1-P: Monticello Affordable Housing Units Requirements – 2016 & 2021 depicts the number of households (renter and owner) that may require affordable housing (based on family income). The gray shaded area indicates family incomes of 80% or less of the median household income ($61,449 in 2016 and $68,174 in 2021). The red box indicates family incomes of 50% or less of the median household income ($38,406 in 2016 and $42,609 in 2021). By 2021, 2,214 owner households may require affordable housing, and 1,629 renter households may require affordable housing. TABLE 1-P: MONTICELLO AFFORDABLE HOUSING REQUIREMENTS – 2016 & 2021 2016 2021 Annual Household Income Number of Households % of Total Number of Households % of Total Less than $15,000 378 7.7% 411 7.9% $15,000 to $24,999 286 5.8% 271 5.2% $25,000 to $34,999 332 6.7% 316 6.1% $35,000 to $49,999 543 11.0% 631 12.1% $50,000 to $74,999 834 16.9% 512 9.8% $75,000 to $99,999 887 18.0% 937 18.0% $100,000 to $149,999 1,262 25.6% 1,564 30.1% $150,000 to $199,999 341 6.9% 472 9.1% $200,000 and over 74 1.5% 85 1.6% Total Households 4,937 100% 5,199 100% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, ESRI forecasts The following table illustrated the maximum affordable housing costs for renters and owners based on median income. A direct relationship exists between monthly affordable housing costs and median income. Steps should be taken in Monticello to keep housing costs affordable as housing values increase such as maintaining current affordable housing stock and assuring opportunities for the construction of new affordable housing units. TABLE 1-Q: MAXIMUM AFFORDABLE HOUSING COSTS (RENTER & OWNER) - 2016 & 2021 Renter Owner Year 2016 2021 2016 2021 Median Income $76,811 $85,218 $76,811 $85,218 Affordable Income: 50% Renter, 80% Owner $38,406 $42,609 $61,448.80 $68,174.40 30% of Affordable Income $11,522 $12,783 $18,434.64 $20,452.32 Monthly Housing Cost $960 $1,065 $1,536.22 $1,704.36 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, ESRI forecasts 18 | P a g e OWNER-OCCUPIED HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS This section analyses the City of Monticello’s owner occupied housing market. Analyzed in this section are single-family home resale trends, home foreclosures, actively marketing subdivisions, pending subdivisions, interviews with local real estate professionals and others involved in the local housing market to gain their feedback on existing market conditions and trends. The Wright County Assessor’s Office provided data on resale trends. The following are key findings regarding the owner-occupied housing market. Home Resale Trends The average resale price of single-family homes in Monticello in 2016 was $202,073 and there were 342 sales. This was an increase in price from 2015 ($169,025 and 266 sales). While some of the price changes from year to year can be attributed to the age and quality of the homes sold during a year, an interview with a realty expert indicated the average resale price likely bottomed out in 2011 and slow price appreciation is expected to continue to bring prices back to a more market-neutral level. Median sale price is often a more reliable measure of price trends. In Monticello, the median sale price of single- family homes increased from $171,500 in 2015 to $185,269 in 2016, which reflects an increase of 8% for that period. TABLE 1-R: RE-SALE TRENDS OF EXISTING SINGLE FAMILY HOMES Year Number of Sales Median Sale Price Average Sale Price 2015 266 $171,500 $ 169,025 2016 342 185,269 $ 202,073 Source: Wright County Assessor's Office; WSB & Associates, Inc. Table 1-S shows the number of home sales in 2016 by the decade the homes were built. In 2016, 181 of the 342 (52.9%) single-family homes sold were built during year 2000 or later. Similarly, Table 1-N showed that approximately 34.7% of Monticello’s owner-occupied single-family homes were built after 2000. Only 11.7% of the sales in 2016 were homes built prior to 1980. This highlights the relatively large supply of newer homes available to potential new residents moving to the community. Table 1-S also highlights how the median sale price decreases as the homes get older. Most homes sold in Monticello in 2016 for under $170,000 were built before 1980. Homes priced above $180,000 were generally built since 2000. TABLE 1-S: HOME SALES BY DECADE BUILT 2016 Decade Number of Sales Percentage Median Sale Price 1970 and Older 27 7.9% $151,509 1971-1980 13 3.8% $166,000 1981-1990 23 6.7% $157,500 1991-2000 98 28.7% $181,467 2001-2010 132 38.6% $193,951 2010-2016 49 14.3% $221,050 Total: 342 100.0% - Source: Wright County Assessor's Office 19 | P a g e Foreclosures Beginning in the middle of the last decade, home foreclosures began to have a significant impact on housing markets across the nation. Initially, most foreclosures occurred among buyers with lower credit ratings who had sub-prime mortgages. Gradually, foreclosure activity increased as jobs plummeted and home prices sank precipitously. Foreclosures have gradually decreased over the past few years as housing markets have stabilized. Table 1-T presents foreclosure data for Wright County and Minnesota. The data are considered “Sheriff’s Sales Foreclosures” and was compiled by the Minnesota Homeownership Center and published on their website. There were 7,212 foreclosures in Minnesota in 2015. This was down from 8,313 in 2014 and significantly lower than 11,834 in 2013. Wright County had 205 foreclosures in 2015, down from 240 in 2014 and 372 in 2013. Wright County has maintained a higher foreclosure rate than Minnesota. The foreclosure rate, as shown in Table 1-T, is defined as the number of foreclosed mortgages as a percent of total residential parcels. In 2015, Wright County’s foreclosure rate was 0.49% compared to 0.40% in Minnesota. Foreclosures have hindered Wright County’s housing market as they have other areas of the State. Out of 87 counties in the State, only 6 had a higher foreclosure count than Wright County. Those counties were Saint Louis, Washington, Dakota, Anoka, Ramsey, and Hennepin. Single-Family Listings Based on a review of various Realtor websites, there were 77 single-family homes actively listed for sale in Monticello in November 2016. The homes were unevenly distributed by price range; weighted heavier toward higher priced homes. Only two (2) homes were priced below $120,000 and 68 priced $150,000 or higher listed for sale. Four (4) homes were listed for sale between $100,000 and $150,000. The average list price of homes on the market was $271,759 in November 2016. While homes typically sell for less than the list prices, the current prices suggest that Monticello should continue to see appreciation in home prices since the low point in 2011. Existing Lot Supply There are currently a limited number of lots available to accommodate new single-family homes in Monticello. The City is experiencing a shortage in buildable lots as bank owned lots have been purchased and developed. As of the end of 2016, there are a total of 74 single-family lots and sites that can accommodate up to 101 multi-family units. Permit numbers have steadily recovered from the 2010 and 2011 low point (two single family permits issued each year) to the issuance of 61 single-family permits in 2016. Prior to the recession, the City issued more than 300 permits annually. During that time (2002- 2007) housing lots were selling in the $70,000-$90,000 range. The sale price of lots fell by more than 80% after the recession. Bank foreclosures of developers resulted in existing lots becoming bank owned TABLE 1-T: HOME FORECLOSURES WRIGHT COUNTY, 2013 to 2015 Wright County Minnesota Year Number of Foreclosures Foreclosure Rate Number of Foreclosures Foreclosure Rate 2013 372 0.89% 11,834 0.64% 2014 240 0.57% 8,313 0.46% 2015 205 0.49% 7,212 0.40% Sources: Minnesota Homeownership Center, HousingLink 20 | P a g e and ultimately being developed quickly. Many of the approved single family pre-plats were not completed due to the diminished demand for new homes. Refer to Table 1-U for full details. TABLE 1-U: AVAILABLE PLATTED & UTILITY SERVICED LOTS Development Single Family Lots Multi Family Lots Featherstone 15 0 Hunters Crossing 0 0 Hillside Farm 22 0 Spirit Hills 0 5 Sunset Ponds 21 0 Carlisle Village 7 17 Autumn Ridge 0 79 Eastview 1 0 Club West 7 0 Pine View 1 0 Total 74 101 Source: City of Monticello In mid-2016, the average price of a lot was about $20,000. As the housing market has improved and lot prices have increased due to the limited supply, it has allowed for an increase in prices for new single family lots. The new housing price situation is further aggravated by the limited number of remaining small home builders which have either closed or changed professions due to the recession and is now resulting in higher construction costs. According to a Monticello realty expert, another critical factor impacting the demand for single family homes is the degree to which first-time home buyers are riddled with college debt and unable to afford the price of a new home. The interest rate for new home loans has increased slightly from an all-time low of 3.4% during the depths of the recession to approximately 4.25% in late 2016. Monticello’s average re-sale price currently sits in the five to seven percent range and is expected to go up. There are no major complaints or concerns among current homeowners looking to move up into more expensive homes. However, Monticello currently lacks availability of lots that are attractive for higher end housing. The community should focus on the development or attraction of a high-end housing development. The two-major upper-bracket areas (Carlisle Village and Briar Oakes Boulevard) have limited availability of undeveloped lots and are surrounded by agricultural uses. City-annexed land west of Monticello provides development opportunities but is unattractive to developers looking to build higher-market homes due to the lack of natural amenities and features generally associated with high end housing areas. Single-family Housing Permits The City of Monticello issued sixty-one (61) building permits in 2016. This number is up 38.6% from 2015 when forty-four (44) permits were issued (6 attached and 38 detached). To meet demand, the City will need to continue this trend. Please refer to Table 1-C for additional information. 21 | P a g e RENTAL HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS Affordable Rental Housing This section of the report analyses the affordable rental housing market in Monticello. The analysis includes data collected from Affordable Housing Online. All the properties in this section are general occupancy. As shown in the demographic and housing stock overview sections, there are approximately 1,175 renter households in Monticello which is down 127 households from 2010. The overwhelming majority of renters live in larger multifamily properties. There are approximately 2,923 renters (24% of total population) living in Monticello. As of 2014, 25% of total Monticello households were renter-occupied, compared to 15.6% for Wright County, and 28% for the State of Minnesota. Properties that include units assisted by federal programs were surveyed as part of this analysis. In total, eight (8) properties with 322 units were surveyed. Twenty-six (26) percent of the City’s rental units are federally subsidized. Monticello’s federally assisted affordable rental housing stock includes properties financed through the following programs: TABLE 1-V: FEDERALLY ASSISTED AFFORDABLE RENTAL HOUSING STOCK Program Properties Units Section 8 2 74 LIHTC 3 102 RD 515 6 189 Total 9 307 Note: The total does not necessarily equal the sum of each program as some properties may participate in multiple funding programs Source: Affordable Housing Online The average number of units per property for affordable rentals in Monticello is 34. The largest federally assisted affordable rental community in Monticello is Ridgemont Apartments at 48 units and the smallest is Hillside Terrace II at 12 units. Two apartment properties provide housing for seniors totaling 59 units. All 307 units include some form of rental assistance (like Section 8) to make rent more affordable for very low income families. In Monticello, a family of four must earn $42,900 or less to qualify for Section 8 housing. See Table 1-W: Federally Assisted Units by Property for details. TABLE I-W: FEDERALLY ASSISTED UNITS BY PROPERTY Name Sec 8 LIHTC RD 515 Senior Broadway Square - - - 28 Cedar Crest Apartments 38 - - - Hillside Terrace -- Monticello 36 - - - Hillside Terrace II - - 12 - Ridgeway Apartments - - 44 - River Park View Apartments - 31 31 31 Ridgemont Apartments - - 48 - Source: Affordable Housing Online Note: Not all unit counts are available from HUD 22 | P a g e Photographs of Monticello Apartment Buildings Image 2: River Park View Apartments Image 1: Ridgemont Apartments Image 5: Broadway Square Image 4: Cedar Crest Apartments Image 3: Hillside Terrace Image 6: Ridgeway Apartments 23 | P a g e Housing Development Opportunities There are currently three future housing development sites that have been identified in Monticello. Site A is an 11.93-acre area located at 506 Territorial Road and is the site of the historic registered Rand House which was the home of the Minnegasco founders. This site is zoned low density residential (R-1) and performance-based overlay and may be used for the development of a senior housing apartment complex with sixty to eighty units (60-80) in addition to forty (40) patio homes. The Rand House would be used as a community center and guest home for the development. Rezoning this area using the planned unit development (PUD) process may be the best option to allow for this higher density development. The uniqueness of the property and the City’s need for additional senior housing units could be used to justify the PUD. Also, we believe the proposed housing development is consistent with the purpose of the performance based enhancement district. Site B is a 6.4-acre area located north of the lake on the corner of Elm Street and 7th Street West. It is zoned for medium density residential (R-3) and may be used for multifamily, senior, or market-rate development. It is within proximity to the Cub Food Store and the Community Center. The site’s southern exposure to the wetland pond offers an attractive natural amenity. Finally, Site C is located at the corner of Locust Street and 3rd Street West and has already been approved for the construction of a twenty-three (23) unit three story residential development. As stated earlier in the “Senior Housing Market” section, from 2010-2021 Monticello will need to construct 136 new senior housing units to meet the forecasted demand. Sites A and B have both been identified as ideal locations for senior housing development. Depending on the number of units permitted on each of these sites, and on how many senior housing units have been constructed from 2010-2016, Monticello may need to identify more sites suitable for senior housing. Image 8: 7th Street Townhomes Image 7: Monticello Crossings 24 | P a g e Image 9: Site A Image 10: Site B Image 11: Site C 25 | P a g e DEMAND ANALYSIS AND CONCLUSIONS This section of the report utilizes data collected in the previous sections to calculate demand for owned and rental housing in Monticello through 2021. Housing Demand Analysis Demand for additional housing in Monticello will primarily come from household growth. Replacement of older homes will contribute to the need for additional residential development, as will pent-up demand. Table 1-X outlines our calculations for owner and rental housing demand in Monticello from 2017 to 2021. TABLE 1-X: POTENTIAL HOUSING DEMAND OVER NEXT 5 YEARS 2017 to 2021 A. Household growth* 500 B. Replacement Demand 10 C. Total housing growth (A+B) 510 Range to occur over next 5 years: D. Percent rental demand 30% to 35% E. Rental housing demand (C x D) 153 to 179 F. Pent-up rental demand 64 64 G. Total rental housing demand (E+F) 217 to 243 H. Percent owner demand 65% to 70% I. Total owner housing demand (C x H) 332 to 357 * Includes projected growth for Monticello (263 households) and one-fifth the growth in the remainder of the market area (237) Sources: US Census Bureau, ESRI forecasts, WSB & Associates, Inc. Table 1-E shows that Monticello is projected to add 263 households between 2016 and 2021 and the remainder of the market area is projected to add 1,183 households. We estimate that Monticello can capture one-fifth of the demand in the remainder of the market area, or 237 households, by providing greater housing choices to retain and attract some potential residents who otherwise would live in the surrounding areas. Thus, an additional 500 housing units would need to be developed from 2017 to 2021 to satisfy projected household growth in Monticello. Replacement demand is generated from the loss of housing or the need to replace housing units that are physically or functionally obsolete. A review of Monticello’s housing stock from the U.S. Census revealed that there are about 340 housing units built prior to 1950. It can be assumed that these homes’ values are decreasing at a faster rate relative to other types of housing. Most of these homes are in good condition4, and we estimate that 0.5% percent per year should be removed annually from the housing supply because of obsolescence, which equates to two units every year or ten units over the next five years. A healthy rental market is expected to have a vacancy rate of about 5% to allow for sufficient consumer choice and unit turnover. With pent-up demand (a shortage of units), persons who would normally form 4 Good condition meaning that these homes do not need renovated or demolished. 26 | P a g e their own rental households, instead decide to move in with other persons in a housing unit, live with their parents, or live in housing outside of the area and commute to jobs. In 2016, Monticello had an estimated 1,300 rental households, of which 20 units (1.5% from Table 2-I) were vacant. This percentage is well below the stabilized vacancy rate. In order to bring the overall vacancy rate to a balanced 5%, about 64 additional rental units would need to be added to the city. Based on demographic and market trends, we project 30% to 35% of the housing demand from household growth and replacement-need in Monticello between 2017 and 2021 will be for rental housing. There is a total of demand for approximately 217 to 243 rental households (about 44 to 49 annually). This demand is for all types of rental housing – from subsidized and market rate general occupancy housing to senior housing. An estimate of 65% to 70% of housing demand in Monticello between 2017 and 2021 is projected to be for owner-occupied housing. This equates to demand for 332 to 357 households from 2017 to 2021 (66 to 71 homes annually.). This would equate to the projected demand for single-family homes and townhomes. These demand projections are based upon the housing market’s behavior over that last ten years. During this time, we experienced the market correction of 2009-2013 which greatly impacted the calculations causing the projections to be historically low. It can be anticipated that if the housing market continues its recovery, the demand for both rental-occupied and owner-occupied households will be greater than the projections. It can be further extrapolated that in response to the increased regulations on mortgages, and the high rates of student debt, the demand for rental housing will dramatically increase. Other Housing Recommendations Projected demand for new housing products in Monticello through the remainder of the decade from current and future residents is outlined on the preceding pages. In addition, there are other programs that Monticello can implement to assist in meeting local housing needs and improving the quality of the existing stock. The key programs/initiatives that Monticello should pursue are outlined below. • Monticello needs to closely monitor rental vacancy rates and availability as new rental properties are added to the community. The addition of the 202-unit Monticello Crossing apartment complex has set a precedent with 200 of its units being occupied during a very short timeframe. This indicates a clear pent-up demand that should continue to increase at the housing market recovers from the correction. • Monticello should also work towards converting vacant housing units into renter-occupied to reach 30-35% of total housing units. In its current state, the rental housing inventory sits at 25% of total housing units. As seen in Table 1-I, the City is projected to have seventy-six (76) additional vacancies. • Monticello needs to maintain its low housing costs and low percentage (19%) of residents paying more than 30% of their monthly household income on housing to reduce the negative impacts from another housing correction like 2006-08. This percentage is much lower than county and state averages (27% and 29% respectively). • Monticello should make efforts to increase affordable rental housing inventory so they are available for younger generations of citizens as well as baby-boomers and empty-nesters. The latter two cohorts of residents are downsizing their living spaces and need affordable places to 27 | P a g e live. Combining affordable housing options with job opportunities could lead to an increase in 19-24-year-old residents. • Monticello should also ensure an adequate amount of higher-end rental units for higher-income individuals looking to retire and downsize their living quarters. While these individuals are looking for smaller spaces, they are not willing to surrender the amenities to which they have grown accustom. • With the expected increase in the percentage of residents over the age of sixty-five (65), Monticello needs to increase their stock of senior housing units. Refer to Table 1-O for projected figures. • Monticello should consider the development of housing in the downtown area to accommodate young seniors and millennial residents. Both cohorts share the same preference for areas that are rich with amenities and walkable, and housing properties that have lower maintenance requirements. Providing residents with downtown housing options is critical if the city wishes to achieve population age diversity and a complete life-cycle housing environment. City of Monticello June 14, 2017 Monticello Housing Study Monticello Housing Study Monticello Population Projections Population:2010 2016 2021 Monticello 12,759 14,146 15,039 9.8%5.9% Wright County 6.5%6.1% State of Minnesota 12.6%3.2% Monticello Housing Study Single Family Housing Value -2016 Value >199,999 200-299,999 <300,000 Monticello 64.9%26.1%9.0% Wright County 44.5%28.2%27.3% State of Minnesota 48.6%25.0%26.4% City County State Median Value $179,095 $216,395 $205,288 Monticello Housing Study URA Major Midsota Manufacturing Household Costs Compared to Income -Ownership >30% of Household Income Monticello 19.3% Wright County 27.3% State of Minnesota 28.6% Monticello Housing Study URA Major Midsota Manufacturing Rental Costs Compared to Income -2014 >30% of Household Income Monticello 46.5% Wright County 47.7% State of Minnesota 46.1% Monticello Housing Study URA Major Housing Types In Monticello -2014 Housing Type Monticello Wright County State of Minnesota Single-Family Detached 54.5%76.4%67.2% Single-Family Attached 18.2%9.8%7.5% 2-4 Unit Multi-Family 2.5%1.6%4.4% 5+ Unit Multi-Family 16.1%7.3%17.4% Mobile Home 8.6%4.7%3.5% Other 0.0%0.1%0.0% Monticello Housing Study Housing Occupants 2016 2021 2016 2021 Monticello 68.7%68.7%25.3%24.9% Wright County 74.7%74.7%15.8%15.9% State of Minnesota 64.0%64.0%24.8%24.9% Owner Occupied Renter Occupied Monticello Housing Study Recommendation #1 Monitor Rental Vacancy Rates and Availability Monticello Housing Study Recommendation #2 Conversion of Vacant Units to Rental Properties Monticello Housing Study Recommendation #3 Maintain low housing cost for home owners Monticello Housing Study Recommendation #4 Monticello should increase affordable rental housing inventory so options are available for younger generations, baby-boomers, and empty- nesters. Monticello Housing Study Recommendation #5 Monticello should also ensure an adequate amount of higher-end rental units for higher-income individuals looking to retire and downsize their living quarters. Monticello Housing Study Recommendation #6 Increase senior housing stock Image 9: Site A Image 10: Site B Monticello Housing Study Recommendation #7 Downtown Housing Development Image 11: Site C Contact Information WSB & Associates, Inc. 701 Xenia Avenue South, Ste. 300 Minneapolis, MN 55416 Kurt Bearinger -Community Planner KBearinger@wsbeng.com (763) 762-3462 Jim Gromberg –Economic Development Coordinator jgromberg@wsbeng.com (763) 762-2846 Thank you! Monticello Housing Study Potential Housing Demand